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The Heitkamp Campaign The Mellman Group, Inc. Heitkamp Continues To Be In A Strong Position To Win October 21, 2012

This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 600 voters representing the likely 2012 North Dakota electorate who were interviewed by telephone October 16-19, 2012. The study uses a random sample and has a margin of error of +/-4.0% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.

Heidi Heitkamp is in a strong position to defeat Congressman Rick Berg in the upcoming election for U.S. Senate. She goes into the final weeks of the campaign with real strength among independents and continues to supplement her share of the vote with cross-party support. Heitkamp Leads Heitkamp holds a 3-point lead over Congressman Rick Berg (45% Heitkamp, 42% Berg). Heitkamp enjoys a 17-point advantage among independents (48% Heitkamp, 31% Berg) and a 35-point lead among moderates (59% Heitkamp, 24% Berg), and garners nearly four times as many Republican votes (11%) as Berg gets from Democrats (3%). North Dakotans have a long history of splitting their tickets in Presidential elections. Indeed, North Dakota has produced different party winners for Senate and President in half the elections where both were on the ballotmore often than any state but one. For example, in 2000, when Al Gore was losing the state by 28 points, Senator Kent Conrad won by 23 points. While Heitkamp has successfully weathered millions of dollars in attack ads, with a majority of voters continuing to view her favorably (50% favorable, 38% unfavorable) Bergs unfavorables now exceed his favorables, leaving his image at a new nadir. Only 42% of North Dakota voters view him favorably compared to 43% who hold unfavorable opinions. His job performance ratings are also as weak as they have been all year, with only 33% rendering positive evaluations and 55% holding negative views. Independents are even sourer on Berg, with a 50% viewing him unfavorably and 60% rating his performance in office negatively.
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The Mellman Group October 2012 Page 2 of 2

It should be noted that, in addition to this poll, recent polling conducted by Mason-Dixon and the North Dakota Democratic Party have shown this race to be a dead heat, suggesting a clear consensus. While much attention has been focused on a poll conducted by Essman/Research on behalf of The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead, it is clearly an outlier. The Essman poll has an absurdly small number of Democrats in their sample (19%). This fails to reflect the known electoral behavior of North Dakota voters. Indeed, 2008 exit polling shows Democrats making up 28% of the electorate, while in 2004 Democrats comprised 27% of the electorate. No exit poll was conducted in 2010 (nor will one be in 2012) but the likelihood that Democrats have shrunk from a consistent 27-28% of the electorate to just 19% is near zero.