!!

The Future of Renewable Energy

Credible Possibilities
Dr. Eric Martinot

Report Author, REN21 Renewables Global Futures Report

Senior Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (Tokyo)
REN21

 2013

NPO ISEP

20112012

2011
1919.3

4.1
3.71.9

12
3

200820125

PV60
4CSP
40
255

346

8
2
7

515
20
208
20%
9

1.2011

9.7%

9.3%

19%

4.1%

3.7%

1.1%

0.8%

2.8%

78.2%
2

www.ren21.net/gsr

H.Chum
IPCC (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2011)
John P.Holdren World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability (New York: United Nations Development Programme, 2000) Energy,
the Environment, and Health
p.120

12

2.20072012

61%

43%

42%

60%

19%

25%

3.1%

3.3%

2.6%

4.0%

14%

15%

0.4%

2012
20072012
5

17%

-1.3%

11%
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

%
7

3.
2012

78.3%

11

16.5%

5.2%

19
2012

20072012
1117
2012

2010
10

12

132012

13

2012

R117
100GW

142
2012

15

4148

20112012
8.51470GW
990 GW21.5
480 GW16
201239
26

2012
18
26
21.7
16.5193

2012
30
5.6

20

4.EU27BRICS62012

480

210

EU27

128

BRICS
0

50

100

CSP

200

300

400

500

90

86

71

31
29

24

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

25

p.120

14


18

19962012

283

300

238

250

198

200

159

150

100

50

59 74
48
39
24 31
17
14
10
6.1 7.6

94

121

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

19
10
2012

80

+13

70

+13.1

60

2012
2011

50
40

+2.4

30
20

+1.1 +2.3

10

+1.9 +1.3 +0.8 +0.9 +0.1

10

20
10
2012

22.6%

Mingyang

2.7%

Sinovel

3.2%

United Power4.7%
Goldwind

6.0%

Gamesa

6.1%

GE Wind

15.5%

Vestas

14.0%

Siemens Wind Power

Enercon

Suzlon Group7.4%

9.5%

8.2%

71

45


18

19962012

283

300

238

250

198

200

159

150

100

50

59 74
48
39
24 31
17
14
10
6.1 7.6

94

121

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

19
10
2012

80

+13

70

+13.1

60

2012
2011

50
40

+2.4

30
20

+1.1 +2.3

10

+1.9 +1.3 +0.8 +0.9 +0.1

10

20
10
2012

22.6%

Mingyang

2.7%

Sinovel

3.2%

United Power4.7%
Goldwind

6.0%

Gamesa

6.1%

GE Wind

15.5%

Vestas

14.0%

Siemens Wind Power

Enercon

Suzlon Group7.4%

9.5%

8.2%

71

45


11

19952012

100

100
90
80

71

70
60
50

40

40
30
20

4.0 5.4 7
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.8

10

10

16

24

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

12
10
2012

6.7%

EU

7.4%

2.1%

2.4%

2.6%

4.0%

5.1%

6.6%

7.0%

32%

16%
=

7.2%

~100 GW

12

5.3%

Yingli Green Energy 6.7%

Canadian Solar

4.6%

Trina Solar

4.7%

3.0%

Suntech Power

4.7%

SunPower

2.6%

JA Solar

2.8%

2.1%

Jinko Solar

2.6%

REC

2.0%

Hareon Solar

2.5%

First Solar

Hanwha-SolarOne 2.5%
ReneSola

50%

2.1%

Tianwei New Energy 2.0%

201235.5GW
75

35

13
15
2012


11

19952012

100

100
90
80

71

70
60
50

40

40
30
20

4.0 5.4 7
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.8

10

10

16

24

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

12
10
2012

6.7%

EU

7.4%

2.1%

2.4%

2.6%

4.0%

5.1%

6.6%

7.0%

32%

16%
=

7.2%

~100 GW

12

5.3%

Yingli Green Energy 6.7%

Canadian Solar

4.6%

Trina Solar

4.7%

3.0%

Suntech Power

4.7%

SunPower

2.6%

JA Solar

2.8%

2.1%

Jinko Solar

2.6%

REC

2.0%

Hareon Solar

2.5%

First Solar

Hanwha-SolarOne 2.5%
ReneSola

50%

2.1%

Tianwei New Energy 2.0%

201235.5GW
75

35

13
15
2012

20122440
201112

2790122440
15p.5421
201220108%
250MW

2012
2850
2011

2012

2007

2.52012
15

2012

2012

2011940
1120
2010372011342012
46
2011186020121320
2009
3

21
20042012
10

279

300

250

244

227

200

172

168

2008

2009

146

150

100
100

50

65
40

2004

2005

2006

2007

2010

2011

2012

1
GSR Frankfurt SchoolUNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance (FS-UNEP) Bloomberg New Energy Finance(BNEF)
Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2013(Frankfurt:2013) BNEF
:

1MW
1MW 50MW
1MW 100
FS-UNEP/BNEF Global Trend Report
>50MWBNEF 1MW 50MW

51

RENEWABLES
GLOBAL FUTURES REPORT
2013

NPO ISEP

CEOs, Presidents

Heads of Industry!Associations

CEO,
Financiers
Researchers
Policymakers
Consultants

Journalists
Regulatory!Sta!!
Parliamentarians
Public!Advocates!!

Electricity Utility Managers

Multilateral Agency Staff

Academics

City Government Official

 1 ?

15 20%30 45%
50 95%

10%6%2011

17 18%
9%
8%

1990
1990
IEA

5 10%
15
1

19902000

205050%

IEAEnergy to 2050:Scenarios
for a Sustaineble Future
35%
3

201130 20%
50%

EU12%

200030 50%

IEA Energy Technology PerspectivesETP

20062050

24%
30%

2004205050%

2007Greenpeace

1: 2050

100

90

Greenpeace
2012
GEA2012
Eciency
highest

80
70
60
50
40

IEA ETP
2012
2DS

30
20

IEA WEO2012
New Policies

ExxonMobil2012

10
0
2020

2030

2040

2050

2011
REN21 2012
2

13

3010

4RPS
2020EU
5 12%40%33%
15RPS 20%39%22%
2341
19%12%2020
64
2030EU
20 25%EC 200945 55%
2030 EREC 2010Greenpeace 2012
40 50%
2050 60 100%
EREC 2010SEI 200927
70 100%
4

20 30

80%

24

2 25 30%

2
25

28
EU
2020
IEA WEO20122010
20%2009
2035

2IEA
20%

2020

14%26

2: EU , 2010 - 2030

50
40
30

% 20

2010-2011
2020
20302035

CREIA2012
LBNL2011
Greenpeace
2012

60

METI2010
ISEP2011
Greenpeace2011

70

DOE2012
UCS2009
Greenpeace
2012

80

2020 Target
2030 Target
2050
Target

90

EC2009
IEA WEO2012

100

EREC2010

2010 2020 2030-2035

10
0
EU

25

18

 6
10

10

1
REN21

111
12
25
2
2011 20%
238GW 2006 2011 5
26%201174%
70GW558%
CSP201135%

2011970GW1,360GW

41
2

10
132
13
10%CHP

1990

2011
27% 2006 2011 5
17%
513

220111070
3%
2011
2006 2011 5
17%527%
4

4: 2030

PV

CSP

GW
2006

74

0.4

45

9.5

0.3

2011

970

238

70

1.8

72

11

0.5

IEA WEO2012

1,580

920

490

40

210

40

10

IEA WEO2012
450

1,740

1,340

720

110

260

50

10

IEA ETP2012
2DS

1,640

1,400

700

140

340

50

20

BNEF GREMO2011

1,350

260

30

IEA RETD2010
ACES

1,300

2,700

1,000

1,200
120

340

Greenpeace2012

1,350

2,900

1,750

700

60

170

180

: 2 2006 2011 REN212008 2012

: CSP 2030 10GW 50GW 2011
2006 REN212012 R2 168

REN21
25 39

53

120302050

2IEAWEO
4502IEA
ETPGEAGreenpeaceWWF4

19

201120%
EU21%

30%

31%68%85%
88%70%
94% 61%32%
65%89%
30%63%100%
55%57%
73%96%59%
100%53%
34%30%34%
81%55%58%
54%66%20

48 20202030

2 3
2020
20%40%75%
40%14%15%
42% 40%
2030
3 2050
100%80%24% 2012

203030 35%
21

20202030
41TWh
45TWh40TWh
22GW
5

2020
100%2030
100%202033%
20207%
10 30%
RPS

1:

ExxonMobilOutlook for Energy: A View to 20402012

2040

16%

BP Energy Outlook 20302012

2030

25%

7%

IEA World Energy Outlook2012

2035

31%

14%

6%

IEA World Energy Outlook2012

450

2035

48%

19%

14%

Greenpeace2012EnergyRevolution

2030

61%

51%

17%

IEA Energy Technology Perspectives20122DS

2050

57%

39%

GEA Global Energy Assessment2012

2050

62%

30%

IEA Energy Technology Perspectives2012

2DS

2050

71%

Greenpeace2012EnergyRevolution

2050

94%

91%

72%

WWF2011Ecogys Energy Scenario

2050

100%

85%

100%

20302040

2050

: 19 2
: IEA WEOIEA ETPBP
Greenpeace
WWF
WWF
BP
GEA
80%
2020 35% 10 Energiewende

TWh GW 53
4

17

 3 :
20112,600
2,9002020

2011

2020

12012

11070

1,600
2011

2010

2
2011
2020
5,0002020
1

5,000

2004
40020112,600 2,900

1,270840

2011CSP200

130
IEA World Energy Outlook
2011 20122012 203523

5:
, 2011-2030

GEA, 2050

BNEF, 2030
BNEF, 2020
IEA WEO, 2012-2035
2011

200

400

600

800

1000

10

2012 BNEF 2011

Bloomberg New Energy Finance Frankfurt School UNEP Collaborating Center2012

Global Trends in
Renewable Energy Investment 2012 100 50 MW 250
BNEF

32

NewSourcesofFinance

Pensionfunds

Insurancefunds

Aggregatedsecuritiesfunds(likemortgagebackedsecurities)

Communityfunds

Oilcompanies

Equipmentsuppliers/vendors

Sovereignwealthfundsandnationalgovernments

FutureBusinessModels

Thirdpartyenergyservicesleasing,bundlingwithenergyefficiency,perKWpricing
kW

Mobilityserviceskilometerbasedpricing,jointownership,integratedwithbuildingsandpower
gridbalancing

Utilitybusinessmodelsonthebillfinancing,smartmetering,newpricingmodels,energy
storagesalesintogridbalancingmarkets

Communityandcooperativeownershipjointownership,newsocialmodels,multifamilyand
multibuildingheatsupply(microdistrictheating)

Industryandretailerinvolvementpowercontractswithreliabilityspecifications,greenpower

Innovative Approaches and Visions at the Local/City Level

!
! Public infrastructure
! Community investment
! Municipal utilities
! Planning approaches for low-energy buildings
! Renewable (and district) heating and cooling
! Public transport fleets
! Electric vehicle infrastructure
! Smart cities

36

384

2018 2020
2010EU
39

37

2020
EU

Greenpeace

4:
4
5

8
2

1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

HEMS

27

:
!
!
/

!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!

Power Grids: Technical, Planning, Market, and Regulatory

Options to Balance Variable Renewables
New power market designs that support greater flexibility
Expanded diversity of resources within geographic grid balancing areas
Co-ordination/merging of balancing areas under balancing authorities
Faster balancing response times through market/operational mechanisms
New types of system optimization
Power dispatch models that incorporate day-ahead weather forecasts
Controlled curtailment of renewables
Demand response
Gas turbines (peaking and non-peaking)
Strengthened transmission capacity and interconnection
Energy storage
Ramping and cycling of conventional plants

RolesofDifferentTypesofCompanies

ElectricUtilities

Oilcompanies

Automakers

Informationtechnology(IT)companies
IT

Technologyintegrationcompanies(i.e.,Siemens)

Buildingsmaterialsmanufacturers(i.e,.architecturalglass)

GreatDebates
1. IsRenewableEnergyMoreExpensiveThanConventionalEnergy?

2. WhatIstheFutureRoleofPolicy?

3. IsEnergyStorageNecessaryforHighLevelsofRenewables?

4. IstheConceptofBaseLoadMeaningfulforFutureEnergySystems?

5. CentralizedorDecentralizedPowerGrids?

6. WillUtilitiesLead,Follow,PushBack,orPerish?

7. WhatRolesWillOilandGasCompaniesPlay?

8. HowWillFeedinTariffsEvolve?

9. WhatAretheProsandConsofOffshoreWindPower?

Global Status Report

on Local Renewable Energy Policies
Working Draft, 12 June 2009
Comments and Additional Information Invited

20099

A Collaborative Report by:

REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP)
ICLEILocal Governments for Sustainability

This report complements the REN21 Renewables Global Status Report by providing more detailed
information at the city and local levels about policies and activities to promote renewable energy. It is
intended to facilitate dialogue and illuminate pathways for future policies and actions at the local level.
This working draft version is intended to solicit comments and additional information. Data in this
draft are not necessarily complete or accurate.

PAGE 10

GLOBAL STATUS REPORT ON LOCAL RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICIES 2009

1/
/

28

1.

aCO2

2-4

/
c/

/
d

e//

10

/
/

1012

---

---

13

FIT

---

14

15-16

GIS

---

Table 1: Local Government Policies/Activities that Can Influence Renewable Energy

Policy/
Activity
Category
1. Target
setting

2. Regulation
based on
legal
responsibilities and
jurisdiction

Key for
Tables
28
Target
setting

Urban

Building

Taxes
Other

3. Operation
of municipal
infrastructure

Purch

Invest
Utility

4. Voluntary
actions and
government
serving as a
role model

Demo
Grants
Land

Other
5.Information
promotion,
and raising
awareness

Info/
promo

Descriptions of Policies/Activities
by Sub-Category

Policy
Tables

(a) CO2 reduction targets

(b) Future shares/amounts of renewable electricity or energy for all
consumers in city
(c) Future shares/amounts of renewable electricity or energy for
government operations and/or buildings
(d) Future shares or absolute numbers of buildings or homes with
renewable energy installations
(e) Future shares/amounts of biofuels for the government vehicle fleet
and/or for public transport
(f) Other types of targets, for example to become fossil-fuel free or
carbon neutral
(a) Urban planning and zoning that encourages and integrates the
local generation, distribution and use of renewable sources of power in
the local jurisdiction--including planning and zoning for public
transportation and electric vehicle infrastructure.
(b) Building codes and/or permitting that applies to, or incorporates
renewable energy in some manner. Examples: mandates for solar
hot water and solar PV installations, zero-net-energy homes, shading
legislation, and mandated design review/scoping of opportunities and
potentials for renewable energy.
(c) Tax credits and exemptions within tax systems: for example, sales,
property and fuel taxes, permitting fees, and carbon taxes.
(d) Other regulation, including municipal departments mandated to
promote or plan for renewable energy, mandates for biofuels use in
vehicles or biofuels blending, and mandatory carbon cap-and-trade.
(a) Local government purchasing (and joint-purchasing with other
municipalities or with private sector) to integrate renewable energy into
government operations. Includes renewable electricity, biofuels, and
bulk purchasing for market transformation programs.
(b) Local government investment in renewable energy for government
buildings, schools, vehicle fleets, and public transport.
(c) Public utility regulation, including tariff regulation, renewable energy
targets, feed-in tariffs, interconnection standards, net metering, and
portfolio standards; also designates private utility policies of these
types.
(a) Demonstration projects, including participation in national pilot and
demonstration projects. Often done with private sector.
(b) Grants, subsidies, and loans for investments in renewable energy
by homeowners or businesses
(c) Using local government land/property for renewable energy
installations (leasing/selling/permitting). Can also include deals that
require developer promises for renewables and efficiency.
(d) Examples: joint ownership of private projects, city-financed
investment funds, bond issues, and green certificates and trading.
Includes public media campaigns and programs; recognition activities
and awards; organization of stakeholders; forums and working groups;
training programs; enabling access to finance by local stakeholders;
enabling stakeholder-owned projects; removing barriers to community
participation; energy audits and GIS databases; analysis of renewable
energy potentials; information centers; and initiation and support for
demonstration projects.

P1
P2
P4
P5

13

P6
P10
P1
P7

P8

P9
P10
P12
---

--P13

--P14
---

P15
P16
---

R16.

202030%

203630%

202010%

2040100%

202020%2050100%

203025%

205070%

202025%

2020

201415%

202525%204050%

202035%

202015%

2025100%

205030%203020%202010%

2020100%

2020100%

202012%

2025100%

202078-90%

2MW

20201.3GW
201350MW
100%
2020950MW

2012
15%

100%8%

2030100%

2030100%

201482%

100%;20%

2012100%

113

R16.

204020

2013

2010

2058
2009
80%

2013

2017

2050100%

202020%

201310%

203030%

2030100%

201810%

CO2

2030

202050%2010

205080%1990

201520%2025

2030

2020502050100%

202040%205080%1990

20200

203050%19912050

202030%1990

2015CO2319905.5

202025%2000

205080%202030%1990

114

R16.

Sustainable Glasglow
2020CO230%2006
/9%
2%
6%
3%
3%
3%

6%

76GWh
/EV

202010%
2020
2030
/2020

10
202012%
2020E10B10

2020

202020%20012005

100%100%
EV
2030
20%

20%40%1990

10
100

2030
1/2

Susutainable Sydney 2030

2030200670%

25%

15

//

360MW2030
11

Greenest City 2020202000

2020
102020

202022010

2020130%
205080%1990EV

20131300EV4000
4400
EV

16

115