Pregnancy Rate Might Predict Future Recessions, Researchers Suggest
Conventional wisdom holds that fertility rates go down in response to an economic downturn. But a new study found that conception rates begin to drop before a recession actually begins.
When the economy takes a turn for the worse, birth rates go down. It's both common sense and an empirically observed phenomenon.
But it's not the whole story.
A team of economists, taking a closer look at the connection between fertility and recessions, found that conception rates begin to drop before the economy starts its downturn â and could even be used to predict recessions.
The working paper was by the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER, on Monday. Unlike previous researchers, the economists focused on conceptions rather than births, by month instead of by year. The results were a surprise.
