Weather Analysis and Forecasting: Applying Satellite Water Vapor Imagery and Potential Vorticity Analysis

Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Applying Satellite Water Vapor Imagery and Potential Vorticity Analysis

Second Edition

Christo G. Georgiev

National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

Patrick Santurette

Forecasting Operations Department, Météo-France

Karine Maynard

Forecast Laboratory, Météo-France

Table of Contents

Cover image

Title page

Copyright

Preface

Acknowledgments

Introduction

Part 1. Fundamentals

Chapter 1. A Dynamical View of Synoptic Development

1.1. Vorticity and Potential Vorticity

1.2. The Concept of Potential Vorticity Thinking

1.3. Operational Use of Potential Vorticity Fields to Monitor Synoptic Development

Chapter 2. The Interpretation Problem of Satellite Water Vapor Imagery

2.1. Information Content of 6.2 and 7.3μm Channels

2.2. Ability of 6.2 and 7.3μm Images to Reflect Moist/Dry Layers, Clouds, and Land Surface Features

2.3. Potential for Operational Use of Images in 6.2 and 7.3μm Channels of Meteosat Second Generation

Part 2. Practical Use of Water Vapor Imagery and Thermodynamic Fields

Chapter 3. Significant Water Vapor Imagery Features Associated With Synoptic Thermodynamic Structures

3.1. Operational Use of Radiation Measurements in Water Vapor Channels 6.2 and 7.3μm

3.2. Interpretation of Synoptic-Scale Imagery Features

3.3. Middle- to Upper-Troposphere Wind Field Features

3.4. Blocking Regime

3.5. Cyclogenesis and Atmospheric Fronts

3.6. Interaction of Tropical Cyclones With Upper-Level Dynamical Structures

3.7. Summary

Chapter 4. Diagnosis of Thermodynamic Environment of Deep Convection

4.1. Introduction

4.2. Atmospheric Environment Favorable for Deep Convection

4.3. Upper-Level Diagnosis of Deep Convection

4.4. Use of Data From Water Vapor Channels in Diagnosing Preconvective Environments

4.5. Summary of the Conclusions

Chapter 5. Use of Water Vapor Imagery to Assess Numerical Weather Prediction Model Behavior and to Improve Forecasts

5.1. Operational Use of the Relationship Between Potential Vorticity Fields and Water Vapor Imagery

5.2. Synthetic (Pseudo) Water Vapor Images

5.3. Comparing Potential Vorticity Fields, Water Vapor Imagery, and Synthetic Water Vapor Images

5.4. Situations of Mismatch Between Water Vapor Image and Potential Vorticity Fields as a Warning Sign of Numerical Weather Prediction Errors

5.5. Using Potential Vorticity Concepts and Water Vapor Images to Adjust Numerical Weather Prediction Initial Conditions and Get an Alternative Model Forecast

5.6. Summary of the Conclusions

Conclusion

Appendix A. Radiation Measurements in Water Vapor Absorption Band

Appendix B. Potential Vorticity Modification Technique and Potential Vorticity Inversion to Correct the Initial State of the Numerical Model

References

Glossary

Index

Copyright

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The cover illustration is made by original images produced for the purposes of this book by the authors using data available in Météo-France. These are satellite water vapor images overlaid by meteorological fields for analysis of cases considered in the material: Top left in Chapter 3, Section 3.5.3.1; Top right in Chapter 3, Section 3.6; Bottom in Chapter 4, Section 4.3.2.

Preface

The main purpose of this book is to provide weather forecasters and operational meteorologists with a practical guide for interpreting satellite water vapor imagery in combination with meteorological fields from numerical models to enable an optimal analysis of atmospheric thermodynamics.

The developments in dynamic meteorology have proved the use of potential vorticity fields as an efficient approach in operational meteorology for more than three decades. This guide illustrates the potential vorticity concept and the current techniques for interpreting imagery in water vapor channels to understand thermodynamic characteristics and evolution of the synoptic situation. The book focuses on numerous examples showing superimpositions between operational numerical model fields and satellite images in the context of understanding the relevant atmospheric processes over the midlatitude, subtropical, and tropical areas. Brief explanations are included, where appropriate, to show the role of the imagery in a forecasting environment. Conceived as a practical training manual for weather forecasters, the book will be of interest and value to university students as well.

Acknowledgments

This manual has been developed in the framework of cooperation between Météo-France and the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Bulgaria. The calculations by the RTTOV radiative transfer model for illustration the material in Chapter 2 and Section A.4 of Appendix A were performed by Fabienne Dupont (Météo-France). The authors are very grateful to Fabienne Dupont also for computer and software support provided during the studies on the work. Sincere thanks are conveyed to Dr. Johannes Schmetz (EUMETSAT) for the useful discussions on the interpretation of radiances in water vapor channels and to Pascal Brunel (MétéoFrance) for the helpful suggestions on the use of the RTTOV model output. The calculations by the LBLRTM radiative transfer model were kindly performed by Stephen Tjemkes (EUMETSAT) for developing the material presented in Section A.3 of Appendix A. Special thanks are also due to the anonymous reviewers and to the developmental editor for their generous contributions of time and insight. Météo-France funded the joint work of P. Santurette and C. Georgiev on the manual from 2005 to 2013. In 2015, Elsevier provided a grant to defray travel expenses, allowing the authors to meet in Météo-France for final developments of the manuscript. Thanks also to Kevin Eagan, the copyeditor who worked on this title.

Introduction

Meteorological satellites set out around the Earth allow a complete surveillance of the atmosphere. Satellite imagery gives a global and consistent view of the organization of atmospheric features in a great variety of scales over large areas. These data are now operationally available in various spectral channels of three generations of geostationary satellite systems, and the operational updating rate of the images has increased with a cycle of repetition of 30, 15, or even 5  min. Such tools help the human forecaster in the early recognition of high-impact weather phenomena. In operational weather forecasting, satellite imagery is used in combination with other meteorological data, especially with relevant numerical parameter fields. This combined use (see EUMeTrain/EUMETSAT, 2012; COMET 2016) is a major requirement for an optimal detection of ongoing physical processes as well as to overcome the problem of an excessive amount of material in the forecasting environment.

Water vapor (WV) channels provide meteorologists with valuable information about the moisture and dynamical properties of the troposphere. Sequences of WV images of the geostationary satellites may be used in detecting thermodynamic characteristics of the troposphere and understanding how the significant factors for the development of high-impact weather systems interact. Understanding of important large-scale atmospheric processes calls for diagnosing imagery jointly with meteorological fields representing atmospheric circulation at middle and upper levels. Such dynamical fields include absolute vorticity or potential vorticity (PV) owing to their close relationship with WV channel imagery.

Circulation and vorticity have been recognized as helpful quantities since the beginning of the 20th century, and on this basis, PV theory was first developed by Rossby and Ertel in the late 1930s. Although PV was introduced as a dynamic atmospheric parameter in the early 1940s, its application was limited, mainly because of the complexity involved in calculating PV fields. With the advent of modern computer technology and its application to meteorology, various computer-generated PV fields have begun to appear since 1964. Hoskins et al. (1985) acknowledged the analysis of isentropic PV maps as a crucial diagnostic tool for understanding dynamical processes in the atmosphere. As a consequence, there has been enormously increased interest in using PV for diagnosing atmospheric behavior, especially of cyclogenesis, for research and operational forecasting purposes (eg, Mansfield, 1996; Hoskins, 1997; Molinari et al., 1998; Agustí-Panareda et al., 2004).

During the last two decades, powerful techniques were developed to invert the PV fields into winds and temperatures that can then be used to correct the numeric analysis and to rerun the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models (Demirtas and Thorpe, 1999; Hello and Arbogast, 2004; Arbogast et al., 2008). These PV inversion methods are used for applying changes in the NWP initial conditions in sensitivity studies about the impact of the selected PV anomalies on the structure of the initial atmospheric fields and on the subsequent dynamical evolution of the simulated circulation systems. This approach has been shown as a powerful tool toward the understanding of important atmospheric aspects related to baroclinic and barotropic development of cyclogenesis and convection, and it has been widely used in numerical studies of severe weather cases (Huo et al., 1999; Romero, 2001; Homar et al., 2002, 2003).

Overlaying PV fields onto satellite WV channel images shows a close relationship in the circulation systems of extratropical cyclones. The relationship facilitates image interpretation and helps to validate NWP output. A mismatch between the vorticity fields and the imagery can indicate a model analysis or forecasting error. The relationship has also been applied to the adjustment of initial fields in NWP models (eg, Pankiewicz et al., 1999; Swarbrick, 2001; Santurette and Georgiev, 2005; Argence et al., 2009; Arbogast et al., 2012). Based on the work of Santurette and Georgiev (2005), training materials have been produced by COMET (2015) on the examination of the relationship between model data and WV imagery to help assess the validity of the NWP model's forecasts. This COMET lesson presents diagrams to help understand how to apply the concept and provides an experience applying the assessment procedures and forecast modifications to four different cases over the North Atlantic and Europe.

Part I presents the fundamentals essential for understanding the specific material presented in Part II. Chapter 1 provides knowledge on basic points of atmospheric dynamics. Chapter 2 describes the information content of radiances measured by satellites in WV channels and illustrates the approach for interpreting imagery gray shades. In response to the broad international interest about the application of WV imagery from the current geostationary satellites, Part II of the book includes analyses of atmospheric processes over Europe, North America, Eastern and Western Atlantic, Asia and Indian Ocean, Southern and Northern Pacific. Processes of interaction between midlatitude and tropical circulation systems are also considered. However, the considerations are focused especially on the European region for two main reasons:

1. This region is rich in observational data that allows much easier verification/illustration of the applied concepts and conclusions regarding the association of WV imagery structures to corresponding circulation patterns as well as the NWP model performance.

2. The European Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellites provide imagery in two WV channels, and the book is aimed to offer guidance for application of 7.3  μm images, in addition to those of the broadly used 6.2  μm (for some satellites 6.3, 6.7, or 6.8  μm; see Appendix A) WV channel.

The three chapters of Part II are devoted to various operational applications. WV images are matched with various fields to provide operational forecasters with knowledge about the relationship between the patterns of main thermodynamical fields and the satellite images. The focus is put on the use of PV fields jointly to 6.2  μm channel imagery for diagnosis of synoptic processes, which are driven by the upper-level dynamics. Imagery in the 7.3  μm channel is considered as a tool for observation of structures in the mid-level moisture field and their relation to the thermodynamic features, which are present from the low to the middle troposphere. Chapter 3 illustrates the dynamical insight offered by WV images for interpreting the evolution of significant synoptic-scale circulation patterns. Chapter 4 is dedicated to deep convection, which is a new topic as regards the first edition of Santurette and Georgiev (2005). This chapter discusses important aspects of convective development: the dynamical forcing and inhibition, temperature, and humidity structures of convective environments associated with mid- and upper-level features that can be identified in WV imagery and PV fields. Chapter 5 is focused on the problem of validating NWP fields from analyses and early forecasts. A methodology is presented for helping to improve operational forecasts by comparing PV fields, satellite WV imagery, and pseudo WV images, which are synthetic products of the numerical model.

Although much of the material in Chapters 2, 3, and 5 has appeared elsewhere (Santurette and Georgiev, 2005, 2007; Georgiev and Santurette, 2009; Arbogast et al., 2012), it has been necessary to integrate it here to enable a better understanding of the new material discussed in this edition.

Chapters 3, 4, and 5 conclude with summaries, which let the reader refer easily to any of the specific interpretation problems discussed in the book.

Part 1

Fundamentals

Outline

Chapter 1. A Dynamical View of Synoptic Development

Chapter 2. The Interpretation Problem of Satellite Water Vapor Imagery

Chapter 1

A Dynamical View of Synoptic Development

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to present basic points of the development theory and relevant concepts involving interactions and feedback between dynamic structures at different levels in the atmosphere, and their evolution, that can be of practical benefit in weather forecasting. The considerations are based on thinking in terms of potential vorticity (PV) as a powerful way of looking at the development/movement of features in the flow and understanding unfolding atmospheric dynamics. The surface of transition between low tropospheric values and high stratospheric values of PV is considered as dynamical tropopause. Anomalies in the dynamical tropopause heights are associated with meaningful dynamical structures: their interaction with upper-level jets, their remote influence in modifying the fields of temperature and vertical motions as well as inducing a cyclonic circulation are discussed. Analysis of a real-atmosphere structure as an example of using this approach to understand synoptic development is presented.

Keywords

Dynamical tropopause; Dynamical tropopause anomaly; Jet streak; Potential vorticity; Synoptic development; Upper-troposphere dynamics

Chapter Outline

1.1 Vorticity and Potential Vorticity

1.2 The Concept of Potential Vorticity Thinking

1.2.1 The Conservation Principle

1.2.2 The Invertibility Principle

1.2.3 Climatological Distribution of Potential Vorticity

1.2.4 Positive Potential Vorticity Anomalies and Their Remote Influence

1.3 Operational Use of Potential Vorticity Fields to Monitor Synoptic Development

1.3.1 Upper-Level Dynamics, Dynamical Tropopause, and Dynamical Tropopause Anomaly

1.3.2 Jet Stream and Jet Streaks

1.3.3 Synoptic Development as Seen by Potential Vorticity Concepts

1.3.4 Analysis of a Real-Atmosphere Structure

1.1. Vorticity and Potential Vorticity

Some meteorological parameters are more effective than others for studying the appearance and evolution of dynamical structures at synoptic scale. The conservative parameters—those that remain unchanged when one follows a particle of fluid in motion—are best suited to detect and monitor the structures that play various key roles in a meteorological scenario. With the assumption of adiabatic motions, the potential temperature θ and wet-bulb potential temperature θw are thermodynamic tracers for the air particles. They allow us to compare the thermal properties of air particles without taking into account the effects due to thermal advection and pressure changes. However, they only represent a few of the important properties that determine the evolution of the atmosphere. To better understand the observed phenomena, dynamical properties must also be taken into account.

In midlatitudes, at synoptic scale, the important dynamical properties are those related to the rotation of air particles. This rotation is linked both to the motion of Earth and to the rotation component of the wind. The rotation of fluid particles is described by the variable vorticity. Vorticity is a measure of the local rotation or spin of the atmosphere: It is the key variable of synoptic dynamics. As illustrated in Fig. 1.1, the vorticity vector gives the direction of the spin axis, and its magnitude is proportional to the local angular velocity about this axis. The fluid particles turn around their vorticity vector, and the absolute vorticity is equal to the relative spin around a local cylinder plus the rotation of the coordinate system.

To interpret a process in terms of quasi-geostrophic theory, only the vertical component of the vorticity equation is explicitly considered. The vertical component of absolute vorticity is ζ  =  f  +  ξ, where f is the Coriolis parameter and the relative vorticity is given by

Figure 1.1  A vorticity vector and the local rotation in the atmosphere indicated by the circulation around a cylinder of air oriented along the vorticity vector. Adapted from Hoskins, B., 1997. A potential vorticity view of synoptic development. Meteorol. Appl. 4, 325–334.

It is also supposed that, at synoptic scale, Earth's rotation dominates (ie, ζ  ≅  f), in which case the relative vorticity equation contains only stretching and shrinking of this basic rotation (Hoskins, 1997). Two examples are presented in Fig. 1.2. Along the zero vertical motion at the ground, we can make the following observations:

• Tropospheric ascent implies stretching and creation of absolute vorticity greater than f, that is, cyclonic relative vorticity, in the lower troposphere.

• Similarly, tropospheric descent implies shrinking and creation of relative anticyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere.

• If the initial relative vorticity is zero, the two situations in Fig. 1.2A and B correspond to cyclonic and anticyclonic surface development.

Consistent with this discussion, synoptic development can be viewed in terms of vertical velocity (derived in the framework of the quasi-geostrophic theory) associated with the evolution of vorticity in the middle and upper troposphere. Pedder (1997) shows that such a quasi-geostrophic approach can be used for the purposes of subjective analysis to diagnose the vertical circulation associated with a large-scale distribution of pressure and temperature.

Figure 1.2  Tropospheric (A) ascent and (B) descent that leads to respectively (A) stretching and (B) shrinking of vorticity associated with (A) increase and (B) decrease of vorticity and circulation. Adapted from Hoskins, B., 1997. A potential vorticity view of synoptic development. Meteorol. Appl. 4, 325–334.

Together with quasi-geostrophic theory, the so-called potential vorticity (PV) thinking has proven to be quite useful to study synoptic development in midlatitudes (for theoretical background and references see Hoskins et al., 1985, which contains an exhaustive review of the use of PV). A simple isentropic coordinate version of PV is given by the expression

[1.1]

where

[1.2]

is the air mass density in xyθ space, θ is the potential temperature, p is the pressure, g is the acceleration due to the gravity, and

[1.3]

is the absolute isentropic vorticity.

Eq. [1.1] says that PV is a product of the absolute vorticity and the static stability. The units commonly used for the presentation of PV are 10−⁶  m²  s−¹ K kg−¹, termed the PV-unit (PVU).

PV combining temperature and wind distribution into a single quantity is a powerful parameter for applied meteorology. The dynamic meteorology has shown the usefulness of the PV thinking to identify and understand the synoptic development in midlatitudes. Three properties underlie the use of PV to represent the dynamical processes in the atmosphere:

1. The familiar Lagrangian conservation principle for PV, which states that if one neglects the contributions from diabatic and turbulent mixing processes, then the PV of an air parcel is conserved along its three-dimensional trajectory of motion.

2. The second is the principle of invertibility of the PV distribution, which holds whether or not diabatic and frictional processes are important. Given the PV everywhere and suitable boundary conditions, then Eq. [1.1] can be solved to obtain, diagnostically, geopotential heights, wind fields, vertical velocities, θ, and so on under a suitable balance condition, depending on access to sufficient information about diabatic and frictional processes.

3. Together with the two principles, another property of PV that allows its use as a concept to describe and understand atmospheric dynamics is the specific climatological distribution of PV.

1.2. The Concept of Potential Vorticity Thinking

1.2.1. The Conservation Principle

The conservation of PV enables us to identify and follow significant features in space and time. In Fig. 1.3, we consider a small vorticity tube whose lower section is at a potential temperature θ and whose upper section is at the potential temperature θ  +  dθ. In a dry atmosphere moving adiabatically, this small cylindrical element with a constant mass necessarily moves between these constant potential temperature surfaces (iso-θ), with each particle preserving its potential temperature. Since the vorticity tube follows the two iso-θ surfaces, the quantity dθ remains constant. At the same time, the PV should be preserved for the fluid element during evolution of the tube. Thus, when h increases (decreasing the θ gradient), the vorticity also increases, and conversely, when h decreases, the vorticity decreases. The stretching/shrinking effect on the vorticity tube bounded by the two isentropic surfaces therefore coincides with the variation of the θ gradient.

Therefore, the conservation of PV in the atmosphere induces changes by the stretching/shrinking effect. The transport of a maximum of PV affects the synoptic flow and, as a consequence, produces vertical motion. From an operational point of view, PV thereby provides a very powerful and succinct view of atmospheric dynamics. Superimposing various PV fields onto a satellite image is a natural diagnostic tool, well suited to making dynamical processes directly visible to the human eye. In particular, a joint interpretation of upper-level PV fields and water vapor imagery provides valuable information because PV structures and water vapor features are well correlated.

Figure 1.3  Conservation of the potential vorticity during the descent of a vorticity tube along two iso- θ surfaces.

1.2.2. The Invertibility Principle

The conserved nature of the PV parameter and the invertibility of PV enable us to build up the flow and temperature structure associated with a given PV anomaly. The approach described in Section 1.2.1 suggests a method to assess numerical model behavior by making meaningful comparisons between an atmosphere simulated by a model and reality, that is, between numerical weather prediction (NWP) output and satellite imagery. In cases of significant disagreement, the invertibility of PV is the principle that allows us to use local PV modifications to adjust initial conditions of operational numerical models. Thus modifying PV in a local area in the direction given by the observations, mainly by the satellite imagery, can lead to improvement in the model initial state, with all other variables (temperature, winds, etc.) being retrieved via PV inversion. Errors in the forecast track and depth of a cyclone may be reduced by calculating a new forecast from this new initial state (see Section 5.5).

1.2.3. Climatological Distribution of Potential Vorticity

The climatological PV distribution in the atmosphere is remarkable. It shows that on average in the low levels of the atmosphere PV is uniform (see Fig. 1.4):

1. In high and midlatitudes the PV ranges on average approximately from 0.4 to 0.7  PVU in the troposphere and reaches 1  PVU around 400  hPa. Then it increases rapidly with height and takes on values much higher than 2  PVU in the stratosphere, becoming rapidly greater than 3  PVU in the low stratosphere, owing to the strong increase of static stability.

2. In tropic areas (between 10° Lat. and ∼30° Lat.), PV ranges from 0.3 to 0.5  PVU and reaches 0.5  PVU near 300  hPa.

This discontinuity of the PV near the middle of the atmosphere together with its conservation property allows us to define the 1.5-PVU surface for midlatitudes and the 0.7  PVU surface for tropics (excluding the equatorial area, within 10° latitude) as a tropopause in the view of the PV concept. This new tropopause is called dynamical tropopause, separating the troposphere, with weak and quasi-uniform PV, from the stratosphere, with its strong PV. Defining the tropopause in terms of the PV concept is more efficient in practical meteorology than the classical definition (based on the lapse rate change), because taking into account not only the temperature field but also the motion field through the vorticity is what is crucial in dynamic meteorology. This dynamical tropopause is justified by Fig. 1.5 that highlights its following features:

1. In midlatitudes the correlation between the area where the PV is on average comprised between 1.5 and 2.0  PVU and the area where the mean mixing ratio of ozone is between 150 and 200  ppm (value of ozone giving a good diagnostic of the mean tropopause).

2. In tropics the region of ozone concentration descending below 150  ppm value, well correlated with the area where the PV is on average between 0.5 and 1  PVU (see Figs. 1.4 and 1.5).

Figure 1.4  Zonal year average (vertical cross-section) of the potential vorticity (PV; color areas , every 0.5   PVU) and of the potential temperature ( black lines in K, interval 5K) in the Northern Hemisphere. The contour of PV value   =   1.5   PVU (the so-called dynamical tropopause) is given in red . This chart used data from 44   years of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis, 1958–2001. From Malardel (2008).

Figure 1.5  Comparison in the Northern Hemisphere between the thermal diagnosis, the ozone diagnosis, and the potential vorticity (PV) diagnosis of the tropopause. The temperature field is a zonal and a seasonal average, December-January-February (in color and red lines , every 10K). The zone of PV with values comprised between 1.5 and 2.0   PVU (for the same period) is represented in magenta dashed area ; the contour of PV   =   1.5   PVU at the bottom of the dashed area is the dynamical tropopause for midlatitudes. Also represented are values of mean mixing ratio of ozone between 150 and 200   ppm ( dotted black zone , 1   ppm   =   10 − ⁹   kg/kg). This chart used data from 44   years of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis, 1958–2001. From Malardel (2008).

We can notice (as Highwood and Hoskins, 1998), that a PV definition of the tropopause is useful also for the tropics but not close to the equator (the equatorial area, within 10° latitude) where PV surfaces become almost vertical.

1.2.4. Positive Potential Vorticity Anomalies and Their Remote Influence

We can now think about the PV distribution itself rather than the behavior of a cylinder between isentropic surfaces. The results must be the same as those depicted in Fig. 1.2 by considering a coherent PV structure at upper levels, referred to as PV anomalies (Hoskins et al., 1985). A positive PV anomaly is defined as a coherent region of high values of cyclonic PV (positive PV values in the Northern Hemisphere and negative PV values in the Southern Hemisphere).

The concept of coherent structure is used to associate many of the anomalies of interest to meteorology to such features, which are localized and keep their coherence in time (Plu et al., 2008). The time scales of air particles traveling inside such a coherent structure are shorter than the typical time scales of the evolution of such a structure. Therefore, such a coherent positive PV anomaly undergoes a time evolution that may be interpreted by dynamical diagnoses.

Fig. 1.6 schematically shows the effect of a positive PV anomaly (ie, a region with an isolated maximum of cyclonic PV) surrounded by an atmosphere originally at rest with uniform PV.

The PV anomaly modifies the temperature field and induces a cyclonic circulation.

• At the center of the anomaly the static stability increases (the iso-θ surfaces become closer together); therefore the stability decreases above and beneath the PV anomaly.

• To conserve PV, the absolute vorticity increases above and beneath the anomaly to compensate for this decrease in stability.

Figure 1.6  A schematic cross-section, showing an idealized model of the modification of the troposphere associated with an upper-level cyclonic potential vorticity anomaly, which is referred to as a dynamical tropopause anomaly.

Hence two effects are associated with a cyclonic PV anomaly introduced into an atmosphere with a uniform PV distribution: a decrease of static stability and an increase of vorticity above and below the anomaly. Thus, an upper-level PV anomaly induces a cyclonic circulation that weakens toward the ground. The circulation induced by a PV anomaly will penetrate a vertical distance, whose scale H, referred to as the Rossby penetration height, is given by the equation (Hoskins et al., 1985)

[1.4]

where f is the Coriolis parameter, L is the horizontal scale, and N is the Brunt-Väisälä frequency, which is a measure of static stability. H is the scale in physical xyz space, measuring the vertical penetration of the induced modification above and below the location of the anomaly. There is an obvious scale effect, whereby small-scale features have a relatively weak effect on the velocity field and large-scale features have a relatively strong effect.

1.3. Operational Use of Potential Vorticity Fields to Monitor Synoptic Development

1.3.1. Upper-Level Dynamics, Dynamical Tropopause, and Dynamical Tropopause Anomaly

The properties of PV allow its use as a tracer in upper-level dynamics, which is crucial in midlatitude synoptic developments. Upper-level disturbances can be considered as upper-level PV anomalies (strong positive PV in the Northern Hemisphere and strong negative PV in the Southern Hemisphere) penetrating into the upper troposphere. The anomaly's influence on the surrounding air is depicted in Fig. 1.7. The troposphere below the PV anomaly is modified as seen in Fig. 1.6. In particular, the iso-θ contours are attracted toward the anomaly. If the synoptic flow is a zonal wind increasing with height, such an anomaly moving in this baroclinic environment produces vertical motion: The deformation of the iso-θ imposes ascending motion ahead (to the east) of the anomaly and subsiding motion behind (most often to the west of) the anomaly.

Figure 1.7  A schematic cross-section, showing an idealized model of the modification of the troposphere associated with an upper-level positive potential vorticity anomaly, which is referred to as a dynamical tropopause anomaly.

It has been considered good synoptic practice to use maps at upper levels to supplement the surface map. The assumptions of balance in the atmosphere and uniform tropospheric PV tell us that only one more level is really needed and that this level is at the tropopause, such as the dynamical tropopause (Santurette and Joly, 2002). Thus, a good way to practically apply the PV concept in an operational forecasting environment is to use maps of the height of the dynamical tropopause (the 1.5 or 2  PVU surface). As this surface represents the transition between the low values of PV in the troposphere and the high values in the stratosphere, a drop of the dynamical tropopause signals an air intrusion characterized by a maximum of PV (as shown in Fig. 1.7).

An upper-level positive PV anomaly advected downward to the mid-troposphere corresponds to an area where the 1.5 PVU surface moved downward to the mid-troposphere or low troposphere; this generally happens when the low tropopause area moves in a baroclinic environment interacting with a jet (which increases vorticity and produces clear vertical motion; see Section 1.3.3); we call such a low tropopause area a dynamical tropopause anomaly.

The dynamical tropopause anomaly is the active region of the dynamical tropopause and is characterized by two features:

1. A region of low tropopause height with a minimum of geopotential (or trough, marked M on Fig. 1.7).

2. A bordering area where the tropopause is very tilted and thus marked by a pronounced gradient of the 1.5  PVU surface geopotential; this strong gradient zone is associated with a maximum of horizontal wind.

Dynamically meaningful information can be illustrated on a single PV chart. Inspecting the maps of the height of the dynamical tropopause (the 1.5  PVU surface) is a powerful way to practically monitor the upper-level dynamics. An upper-level trough—including a short wave trough—on a constant pressure surface can be interpreted as an area of upper-level PV maximum that corresponds to a trough or an area of low 1.5  PVU heights. Actually upper-level troughs are easier to see and to follow as troughs or minimum of height of the 1.5  PVU surface than as troughs on any isobaric surface, partially due to the conservative property of PV. Also, due to the presence of strong static stability just above the tropopause, the dynamical tropopause is a specific surface, restricting the free atmosphere similar to the ground being the other restricting surface to a free atmospheric flow. For that reason, the horizontal perturbations of the atmospheric flow are more pronounced on the dynamical tropopause than they are on any mid–upper-level isobaric surface. Jet evolutions and especially jet streaks represent the synoptic perturbations of the atmospheric flow, and it has been noted that the dynamical tropopause is the level that best reveals these upper-troposphere disturbances (see Section 1.3.2).

The real tropopause is never perfectly flat, as is the case for isobaric surfaces and isotherms. The minima or troughs of the dynamical tropopause are not all systematically linked to any evident synoptic vertical motion: Some of these tropopause deformations (or minimum height of the tropopause) are not very well pronounced in a quasi-barotropic environment and are surrounded by a weak slope of the tropopause, that is, by a weak geopotential gradient of the 1.5  PVU surface. For that reason, these areas can be considered as latent tropopause anomalies, where the balance of the atmosphere is hardly disturbed, and the synoptic vertical motion is not present or very weak. Nevertheless, two key points need to be considered:

• The latent tropopause anomalies are important to follow, because their evolution, under the influence of the large-scale circulation, can lead to dynamical tropopause anomalies that induce strong synoptic-scale vertical motions. For that reason, the latent tropopause anomalies are precursors