QUALITATIVE FORECASTING by T Khailalsang Gangte 07312 Ankur Sharma 07311

QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
The keys to employing qualitative forecasting are: Data as an historical series is not available,or is not relevant to future needs. An unusual product or a unique project is being contemplated.

Data From Expert Opinion

By Survey Data can be gathered by phone or in writing. Data comes in three categories: 1. Highly valuable 2. Absolutely essential 3. Supporting material. The survey group is known as the reference population.

Data From Expert Opinion Using groups Jury of executive opinion: senior managers draw upon their collective wisdom to map out future events. These discussions are carried out in open meeting, and may be subject to the drawbacks of group think and personality dominance.

Data From Expert Opinion Using groups The Delphi Method: drawing upon the groups expertise by getting individual submissions, without the drawback of face to face meetings. The Delphi Method is named after a famous Oracle who prophesied in the ancient Greek city of Delphi. An Oracle (wise person) interceded between men and gods.

The Nominal Group Technique is a face to face Delphi method, allowing group discussion. The Devils Advocate method poses subgroups to question the groups findings. The Dialectical Inquiry method poses subgroups to challenge the groups findings with alternative scenarios.

Output from the group techniques is sorted into scenarios. These scenarios are further reviewed by the group.
A final consensus of opinion forecast is accepted by the group.

QualitativeForecasting Summary Qualitative forecasting is used when historical data is not available, or when the planning horizon is very long. Qualitative forecasting uses expert opinion, collected in a variety of ways. Collected expert wisdom has to be carefully managed. Research shows that both the Delphi Method, and the Nominal Group technique, are reliable forecast methods.