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Oct. 22 Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Poll

Oct. 22 Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Poll

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Published by: The Morning Call on Oct 22, 2012
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11/04/2012

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Muhlenberg College/Morning Call 2012 Pennsylvania Presidential Election Survey Release Date October 22, 2012 Survey Methodology

Number of Interviews: 444 Likely Voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Margin of Error: +/-5% at a 95% level of confidence Fielding Dates: October 17-21, 2012 Method of Interviewing: Live telephone interviewers Method of Sampling: The sample for this study was drawn randomly from both a list of registered voters in the state of Pennsylvania and from the universe of wireless numbers in the Commonwealth. First, voters were randomly selected from a list of registered voters in Pennsylvania that is provided by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. This list has been updated to reflect changes in phone numbers for voters since their initial registration. However since the list updating procedure will not match voters to wireless phone numbers a supplemental sampling procedure is employed. The supplemental sample includes a random selection of wireless numbers for cell phones in Pennsylvania. While the proportion of registered voters in Pennsylvania who exclusively use cell phones is undetermined, it is estimated that approximately a quarter of Americans use only cell phones. We thus supplement the sample drawn from voter files with a sample drawn randomly from wireless phone numbers in Pennsylvania. Respondents from the cell phone sample were asked to identify if they used only cell phones for their personal use, with those using both cell phones and landlines excluded form participation in the survey. The overall sample included 331 responses from the list of registered voters and 113 responses from the cell phone sample.

Likely Voter Screens: To identify likely voters a multiple stage process is utilized. For the sample drawn from the Pennsylvania voter registration files only individuals who voted in at least 1 of the last 8 general or primary elections in Pennsylvania OR who had registered to vote in the state since 2009 were included in the sampling frame. For the cell phone sample respondents were asked if they had voted in 1 of the last 8 elections in the state or had registered to vote since 2009. Among those that met the voting history requirement, two follow up questions were asked to determine voter likelihood. First respondents were asked to confirm their voter registration status (Question 1) with those indicating that they were either not registered or unsure about their registration status being excluded from participation. Finally, individuals were asked to express the likelihood that they will vote (Question 2) in the November election, with only those indicating that they will definitely or most likely vote allowed to participate in the full survey. Weighting: The data was weighted by gender and region of the state. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding Instrument Design: Dr. Christopher P. Borick of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in conjunction with staff members of the Morning Call.
CONTACT: Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion 484-664-3066

FREQUENCY REPORT AND SURVEY INSTRUMENT INTRODUCTION Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ? (READ LIST) August 2012 Democrat Republican Independent Other Party Not Registered (END SURVEY) Not Sure (END SURVEY) 49% 40% 10% 2% Na Na Early September 2012 49% 39% 8% 4% Na Na Late September 2012 47% 39% 12% 2% Na Na October 10-15 47% 42% 10% 2% Na Na October 17-21 46% 40% 12% 2% Na Na

Q2: How likely are you to vote in the elections this November? Are you definitely going to vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting in the November Election? August 2012 Definitely Going to Vote Very Likely To Vote Very Likely To Vote (END SURVEY) Definitely not voting (END SURVEY) Not Sure (END SURVEY) 84% 16% Na Na Na Early September 2012 82% 18% Na Na Na Late September 2012 85% 15% Na Na Na October 10-15 90% 10% Na Na Na October 17-21 91% 9% Na Na Na

Q3: Next, I would like for you to rate the performance of a few political officials. For each name that I read, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way he is doing his job. First, President Barack Obama? August 2012 Approve Disapprove No Opinion 43% 47% 10% Early September 2012 47% 44% 9% Late September 2012 47% 45% 8% October 10-15 47% 46% 6% October 17-21 46% 46% 7%

Q4: How about Governor Tom Corbett? August 2012 Approve Disapprove No Opinion 30% 46% 24% Early September 2012 30% 46% 25% Late September 2012 31% 45% 25% October 10-15 33% 39% 27% October 17-21 32% 41% 27%

Q5: and Senator Bob Casey Jr.? August 2012 Approve Disapprove No Opinion 37% 28% 35% Early September 2012 37% 31% 32% Late September 2012 33% 31% 36% October 10-15 32% 35% 33% October 17-21 37% 34% 29%

Q6: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of him is favorable or unfavorable. First, Mitt Romney August 2012 Favorable Unfavorable Neutral/Not Sure Haven’t heard of him 37% 49% 13% <1% Early September 2012 40% 48% 12% <1% Late September 2012 39% 51% 10% <1% October 10-15 44% 45% 11% <1% October 17-21 43% 47% 10% <1%

Q7: Next, Barack Obama August 2012 Favorable Unfavorable Neutral/Not Sure Haven’t heard of him 48% 45% 7% 0% Early September 2012 50% 42% 7% <1% Late September 2012 49% 45% 6% <1% October 10-15 46% 46% 7% 0% October 17-21 50% 45% 5% 0%

Q8: How about Bob Casey Jr.? August 2012 Favorable Unfavorable Neutral/Not Sure Haven’t heard of him Q9: and Tom Smith? August 2012 Favorable Unfavorable Neutral/Not Sure Haven’t heard of him 18% 13% 40% 30% Early September 2012 20% 18% 35% 27% Late September 2012 23% 21% 36% 20% October 10-15 29% 23% 33% 15% October 17-21 28% 28% 35% 10% 40% 26% 31% 2% Early September 2012 35% 31% 31% 3% Late September 2012 34% 33% 31% 3% October 10-15 32% 36% 28% 4% October 17-21 37% 33% 28% 2%

Q10: Now, if the 2012 presidential election was being held today and the race was between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED) August 2012 Barack Obama Mitt Romney Neither/Other Not Sure (Volunteered) 48% 38% 6% 7% Early September 2012 49% 41% 5% 5% Late September 2012 49% 41% 4% 6% October 10-15 47% 44% 3% 6% October 17-21 50% 44% 2% 5%

NOTE Q11 was asked only to respondents who responded “not sure” in Q10 (n = 21) Q11: Are you leaning more toward voting for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? August 2012 Obama Romney Neutral/Not Sure 10% 20% 70% Early September 2012 13% 16% 71% Late September 2012 15% 15% 70% October 10-15 29% 21% 50% October 17-21 10% 32% 58%

PRESIDENTIAL RACE WITH LEANERS August 2012 Barack Obama Mitt Romney Neither/Other Not Sure (Volunteered) 49% 40% 6% 5% Early September 2012 50% 41% 5% 4% Late September 2012 49% 42% 4% 5% October 10-15 49% 45% 3% 3% October 17-21 50% 45% 2% 3%

Q12: Now, if the 2010 U.S. Senate election was being held today and the race was between Bob Casey Jr. and Tom Smith, who would you vote for? August 2012 Bob Casey Jr Tom Smith Neither/Other Not Sure (Volunteered) 46% 28% 3% 24% Early September 2012 44% 30% 5% 21% Late September 2012 42% 34% 7% 17% October 10-15 39% 37% 1% 23% October 17-21 42% 34% 2% 22%

NOTE Q13 was asked only to respondents who responded “not sure” in Q12 (n = 98) Q13: Are you leaning more toward voting for Bob Casey Jr. or Tom Smith? August 2012 Bob Casey Jr Tom Smith Not Sure (Volunteered) 14% 9% 76% Early September 2012 8% 13% 78% Late September 2012 13% 9% 77% October 10-15 11% 7% 82% October 17-21 15% 12% 73%

SENATE RACE WITH LEANERS August 2012 Bob Casey Jr Tom Smith Neither/Other Not Sure (Volunteered) 49% 30% 3% 18% Early September 2012 45% 33% 5% 18% Late September 2012 44% 36% 7% 13% October 10-15 41% 39% 1% 18% October 17-21 45% 37% 2% 16%

Q14: Next, if the 2010 Pennsylvania Attorney General’s election was being held today and the race was between Dave Freed the Republican and Kathleen Kane the Democrat, who would you vote for? Late September 2012 Dave Freed Kathleen Kane Other Not Sure 27% 33% 2% 38% October 10-15 28% 33% 2% 37% October 17-21 26% 39% 1% 34%

NOTE Q15 was asked only to respondents who responded “not sure” in Q14 (n = 150) Q15: Are you leaning more toward voting for Dave Freed or Kathleen Kane? Late September 2012 9% 11% 79% October 10-15 6% 9% 84% October 17-21 5% 6% 89%

Dave Freed Kathleen Kane Not Sure

ATTORNEY GENERAL’S RACE WITH LEANERS Late September 2012 31% 37% 2% 31% October 10-15 30% 37% 2% 32% October 17-21 28% 40% 1% 30%

Dave Freed Kathleen Kane Other Not Sure

Q16: If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for? The Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate? (OPTIONS ROTATED) August 2012 Democrat Republican Neither/Other Not Sure (Volunteered) 44% 35% 4% 17% Early September 2012 46% 39% 6% 9% Late September 2012 42% 39% 4% 15% October 10-15 45% 41% 1% 13% October 17-21 47% 41% 2% 11%

Q17: Did you happen to watch this week’s presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, or didn’t you get a chance to see it? October 10-15 (After First Presidential Debate) Yes No Not Sure 71% 26% 3% October 17-21 (After Second Presidential Debate) 72% 27% 1%

(QUESTIONS 18 and 19 ASKED ONLY OF RESPONDENTS ANSWERING “YES” IN Q17) Q18: Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, do you think that Mitt Romney or Barack Obama did a better job in this week’s presidential debate.? (NAMES ROTATED) October 10-15 (After First Presidential Debate) 73% 12% 7% 7% October 17-21 (After Second Presidential Debate) 32% 46% 19% 3%

Romney Obama Neither/Both Not Sure

Q19: Which of the following best describes the effect that last week’s presidential debate had on your vote in the upcoming presidential election. Did it make you: (READ LIST) October 10-15 (After First Presidential Debate) 10% 5%
7%

Much more likely to vote for Barack Obama Slightly more likely to vote for Barack Obama Slightly more likely to vote for Mitt Romney Much more likely to vote for Mitt Romney Or did the debate have no effect on your vote for president in the upcoming election Not Sure

October 17-21 (After Second Presidential Debate) 14% 13%
4%

26% 49% 3%

15% 54% 1%

Q21: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)? August 2012 White/Caucasian African-American Hispanic Latino Asian Native American Mixed race Other 90% 6% 1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 1% Early September 2012 88% 6% 2% <1% 1% <1% 2% 1% Late September 2012 86% 7% 2% <1% 1% 1% 2% 1% October 10-15 87% 6% 2% 1% 1% <1% 2% 1% October 17-21 87% 8% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% 1%

Q22: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (READ LIST)? August 2012 Catholic Protestant Jewish Muslim Hindu Other Religions (including agnostic Atheist Not Sure (volunteered) 34% 47% 2% 1% <1% 13% 2% 2% Early September 2012 33% 45% 3% <1% <1% 13% 3% 2% Late September 2012 35% 43% 3% <1% <1% 12% 2% 4% October 10-15 33% 41% 3% 2% <1% 12% 4% 3% October 17-21 37% 39% 3% 1% <1% 14% 3% 2%

Q23: What is your current marital status? Are you (READ LIST)? August 2012 Single Married Separated Divorced Widowed Partnered 14% 65% 1% 6% 13% 1% Early September 2012 Late September 2012 October 10-15 October 17-21

16% 62% 1% 6% 13% 1%

14% 65% 1% 6% 12% 1%

14% 67% 1% 6% 10% 1%

16% 68% 1% 7% 9% <1%

Q24: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST) August 2012 Less than High School High School Graduate Some college or technical school College graduate (4 yr only) or Graduate or professional degree 2% 31% 24% 23% 20% Early September 2012 Late September 2012 October 10-15 October 17-21

1% 29% 25% 24% 21%

3% 26% 25% 26% 21%

3% 26% 23% 29% 18%

2% 25% 26% 27% 20%

Q25: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)? August 2012 Under $20,000 $20,000-$40,000 $40,000-$60,000 $60,000-$80,000 $80,000-$100,000 Or Over $100,000 Not Sure (Volunteered) 11% 19% 23% 14% 11% 20% 2% Early September 2012 13% 20% 20% 14% 11% 19% 4% Late September 2012 10% 21% 19% 15% 10% 21% 5% October 10-15 12% 19% 19% 16% 10% 18% 6% October 17-21 9% 17% 20% 17% 13% 19% 6%

Q26: Which of the following categories does your current age fall in? Is it (READ LIST)? Early Late October October August 2012 September September 10-15 17-21 2012 2012 18-34 10% 13% 12% 13% 12% 35-50 21% 25% 25% 24% 25% 51-64 34% 29% 31% 32% 34% Or 65- and over 35% 32% 33% 31% 29%

Q27: Thank you for your help with the survey. We appreciate your time. (GENDER DETERMINED BY VOICE RECOGNITION) August 2012 Male Female REGION August 2012 Philadelphia Suburban Phil/Lehigh Valley Allegheny Southwest Remainder of State 10% 24% 11% 9% 46% Early September 2012 11% 24% 10% 10% 45% Late September 2012 12% 24% 12% 10% 43% October 10-15 11% 24% 11% 10% 44% October 17-21 11% 25% 12% 10% 43% 48% 52% Early September 2012 48% 52% Late September 2012 48% 52% October 10-15 48% 52% October 17-21 48% 52%

SELECTED CROSSTABS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE (INCLUDING LEANERS)

Obama
OVERALL Democrat Republican Independent Male Female White Non-White College Degree No College Degree Under 50 Years Old Over 50 Years Old Catholic Protestant 50% 83% 10% 52% 47% 52% 46% 80% 50% 50% 53% 48% 45% 42%

Romney
45% 14% 87% 34% 49% 42% 49% 18% 45% 45% 39% 49% 50% 53%

Neither/Other
2% 2% 1% 8% 3% 1% 2% 0% 1% 3% 4% <1% 3% 1%

Not Sure
3% 2% 2% 6% 1% 4% 3% 2% 4% 2% 4% 2% 3% 3%

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