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Interested Parties Project New America and USAction November 1, 2012 New Florida Poll Shows President Obama Up by One Point Over Romney
A statewide telephone survey of 600 likely voters in Florida was conducted by Grove Insight October 28-29 using professional interviewers. Quotas were set to ensure calling into cell phone only households. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.
+1 48% 47%
1%
Obama 44% Lean Obama 4 % Other
5%
Undecided
Romney 42% Obamas lead extends beyond just the youngest voters Lean Romney 5 % hes ahead of Romney among every age group from 18 to 60 including 50-somethings. However, while the under 50 crowd (55% to 40%) provides Obama with his lead, those over age 50 support Romney (42% to 53%).
Registered Democrats (86%) and Republicans (88%) are similarly consolidated around their partys nominee. The game is among Independents, where Obama holds a six point lead (47% to 41%). While close, Obama has a lead on key metrics driving this race possessing the steadiness and judgment to be Commander-in-Chief (+5 over Romney), being capable of rebuilding a middle class economy (+5) and having a concrete plan to move the country forward (+5). Romney also seems to have more of an honesty problem which may make it harder to drive home a message in the closing days. By five points, Florida voters say it is Romney who is better described by the phrase, You cant really believe what he says.
Who does it better describe Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? [Names rotated] Obama Romney
Has the steadiness and judgment to be Commander-in-Chief Will work to re-build the middle class economy Has a concrete plan to move our country forward You cant really believe what he says
48 47 46 38
43 42 41 43
Now Im going to read you some proposals. For each one, please tell me whether you favor or oppose that proposal. Favor Oppose
Ending traditional Medicare Ending tax breaks for businesses that ship American jobs overseas and replacing them with tax incentives to create jobs in the U.S. Cutting Social Security benefits Creating jobs by investing in repair of roads, bridges, and schools
16 71 8 83
75 20 86 9
Demographic comparisons between this Grove Insight poll, the voterfile and other recent public surveys conducted in Florida
Grove Insight Poll October 29-30 The actual voter file Gravis October 30, 2012 PPP Poll October 26-28
14% 24% (30-45) 37% (46-65) 25% (65+) 64% 14% 14% 8% 55% 45% NA NA NA 38% 19% 43%
White voters Hispanic/Latino African American Other Women Men Reg. Republican Reg. NAV/Ind/Other Reg. Democrat Self IDd Republican Self IDd independent Self IDd Democrat
67% 16% 15% 1% 53% 47% 39% 21% 40% 38% 25% 36%
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