*

2009 12 15
* 2009 12 15

www.ms.com/techresearch

www.morganstanley.com/equityresearch 1-800-624-2063


-
mary.meeker@
Mary Meeker
Scott Devitt
scott.devitt@
liang.wu@
Liang Wu
colter.van.domelen@
Colter Van Domelen
-
Katy Huberty
Mathew Schneider

kathryn.huberty@
mathew.schneider@

(212) 761-8042
-3365
-6320
-7678

(212) 761-6249
-3483

-
Ehud Gelblum
Avi Silver

ehud.gelblum@
avi.silver@

(212) 761-8564
-4226

-
Naoshi Nema

naoshi.nema@

+81 3 5424-5320

-
James Dawson
Patrick Standaert
-
Mark Lipacis
Sanjay Devgan
-
Jasmine Lu
Bill Lu
Keon Han

james.dawson@ +44 20 7425-9646

patrick.standaert@
-9290

mark.lipacis@
sanjay.devgan@

(415) 576-2190
-2382

jasmine.lu@
bill.lu@
keon.han@

+852 2239-1348
+852 2848-5214
+82 2 399-4933

-
Simon Flannery
Sean Ittel

simon.flannery@
sean.ittel@

-
Nick Delfas
Sean Gardiner

(212) 761-6432
-7220

nick.delfas@ +44 20 7425-6611

sean.gardiner@ +971 4 709-7120

-
Hironori Tanaka ()
-
Navin Killa
Vinay Jaising
Yvonne Chow

hiro.tanaka@

+81 3 5424-5336

navin.killa@ +852 2848-5422

vinay.jaising@ +91 22 2209-7780
yvonne.chow@ +852 2848-8262

-
Richard Ji

richard.ji@

+852 2848-6926

/ -
Benjamin Swinburne

benjamin.swinburne@

(212) 761-7527

adam.holt@

(415) 576-2320

-
Adam Holt

Ravi Lath

@morganstanley.com

1995 (www.ms.com/techresearch)
PowerPoint

2009

1) 92

2) 659

3) 426 8
2
www.ms.com/techresearch

50 5

5 3G + + + +

/ +

50 5

60

70

80

90

10

Computersciencelab.comIBMNTT docomo


+ + + +
= 10
1960 2020

1,000,000

100,000
10,000
1000

10

MP3
/
(PDA)
GPS
ABS/

100

100

Kindle

10 /

1000

1
100

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

1993 1 2002 2005 10

Mark Lipacis


10,000,000

5
1962 2009

1,000,000

100,000

10,000
'62 '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07

- IBMSperry
NCRUnisys - IBMDEC - IBM
Sun Microsystems - IBM (Yahoo!)
FactSet

60

70

80

90

10

IBM
NCR
Control Data
Sperry

Burroughs

Digital Equipment
Data General

Prime
Computervision

EMC

eBay
(Yahoo!)
(Yahoo!)

Rakuten

50 80 500
1995 FactSet

1996

/
[
/
/
]

[
]

//
/

2005

2011

1996 2009 11

10

 15
/

Facebook

11


//
+ + +

3
1) Facebook + 2)
iPhone/iTouch/iTunes 3)
//

//
Facebook iPhone/iTouch
// Zynga
Farmville Tapulous Tap Tap Revenge
Pandora Internet Radio
OpenTable

12

// /
//

+ +

4G

13

3G / 4G

5:1 1:1

/
RIM
+

14

IBM DEC

NTT docomo 1999 2005

2-3

iPhone/iTouch/Macintosh///
iPod/ iTunes /

15

/
/

80
1) Macintosh 2)

/
RIM
/
Android +

Android
INQ

16

Facebook /
Facebook
/ Facebook
/Facebook

Skype

17


//
//
eBay
(Yahoo!)SAP Adobe

+ +
Rakuten Mixi /
Adobe
Zynga Playfish2009 11 Electronic Arts AdMob
2009 11

18

09 12 10
52

2010

2010

10
10

9%
6
-20

13x
11
-33

MCP DRAMNAND
3G +

72.7

21

13

139.0
14.4
--

----

----

----

15

10.7

1.8

113

2
10
1.0
12
0.1

1
5
0.5
6
0.0

30.7
25.5
20.9
8.0
2.5

24.2
9.0
7.8
3.7
1.1

8
17
10
8
17

38
14
13
9
11

3G +
+ +
+
+

28
31
118

30
32
128

21
20
74

162.9
19.1
6.5

123.4
11.5
3.1

0
4
6

12
13
16

+ + GSM

Wi-Fi + 3G

193
19
9,115
---

209
20
9,825
---

78
5
2,957
---

174.1
35.1
1.4
---

47.9
2.5
0.2
---

25
41
33
---

22
37
34
---

-
+

Wi-Fi 3G

Meeker/Devitt
Meeker/Devitt
Holt
Nema

585
138
37
759

595
146
37
825

283
48
16
433

185.6
59.6
19.1
9.8

27.6
28.8
3.5
3.4

17
22
19
8

26
58
23
19

+ + + +
+ +

Greene

88

91

34

27.5

35.3

18

INTC-US
005930-KR
QCOM-US
BRCM-US

E
O
-O

Lipacis
Han
-Lipacis

$20
654
45
31

$21
700
49
32

$12
292
32
15

$113.0
97.3
75.4
15.2

$37.7
78.3
-5.3

2317-TW

J.Lu

36.8

CSCO-US
JNPR-US
--

----

----

24
27
--

25
29
--

14
12
--

CCI-US

Flannery

37

39

762-HK
532454-IN
TLKM-ID
7020-SA
SAFARC-KE

O
O
O
O
O

Chow/Killa
Jaising
Killa
Gardiner
Gardiner/Vassiouk

1
7
1.0
11
0.1

T-US
RCI.B-CA
ILD-FR

O
O
E

Flannery
Flannery
Delfas

AAPL-US
700-HK
2121-JP
---

O
O
O
---

Huberty
Ji
Nema
---

GOOG-US
AMZN-US
ADBE-US
4755-JP

O
O
O
O

FDX-US

Juniper Networks

+
+
EM /

Bharti Airtel
PT Telekomunikasi
Mobily
Safaricom

Rogers
Iliad

Mixi
Facebook
Skype

//

Adobe
Rakuten

FactSet

19

52
09 12 10

10

2010

10

2010

RIM

1%
---

13x
--
--

NOK1V-FI
RIM-CA
--

U
---

Dawson
-Dawson/
Standaert

$13
59
--

$17
88
--

$8
35
--

$46.8
33.6
--

$59.8
---

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

TLAB-US

--

Standaert/
Dawson
--

2.2

--

--

--

S-US
9433-JP
9427-JP

U
E
E

Flannery
Tanaka
Tanaka

4
5,537
693

6
7,041
851

2
4,271
498

10.6
24.5
1.0

31.4
38.8
0.9

-3
-1
-8

-8
7

MSFT-US
7974-JP
6758-JP

O
O
O

Holt
Ono
Ono

30
232
28

30
406
31

15
224
15

266.2
32.5
28.2

63.5
16.6
76.9

10
-11
0

15
10
15

Networks
Tellabs

Sprint
KDDI
eAccess

(DS) iPhone
(PSP) iPhone

FactSet

20

09 12 10

52

2010

10 10

2010

Marvell

20% 13x 3G/ EM 2G

22
16

2454-TW
MRVL-US

O
O

B.Lu / C.Chan
Devgan

$16
18

$17
19

$6
6

$17.1
11.2

$4.4
3.4

HPQ-US
DELL-US
MOT-US
WDC-US
2498-TW
STX-US
PALM-US

O
E
-U
O
E
--

Huberty
Huberty
-Huberty
J.Lu
Huberty
--

50
13
8
39
11
17
12

51
17
9
40
16
17
18

25
8
3
11
9
3
2

118.1
26.3
18.9
8.9
8.7
8.3
1.7

122.3
58.2
-9.1
5.3
11.1
--

5
12
-13
18
12
--

11
10
-9
11
7
--

Android 2.0

Android

ERIC.B-SE
763-HK
ALU-FR

U
U
E

Standaert
J.Lu
Standaert

9
6
3

11
6
5

7
2
1

31.0
7.1
7.8

29.3
10.8
22.1

-1
20
-3

19
27
29

Gardiner/Vassiouk

15

18

29.0

16.1

11

O
O
E
U

Prota/Delfas
Delfas
Flannery
Flannery

29
2
33
6

30
2
35
9

17
2
26
3

137.5
121.8
92.9
4.3

84.0
71.7
108.5
0.5

2
16
1
75

2
9
14
--

LTE
WiMAX

CMCSA-US

Swinburne

16

18

11

46.0

37.1

12

+ WiMAX

CVC-US

Swinburne

25

26

7.5

7.0

-9

16

Wi-Fi

2432-JP
3632-JP

E
O

Nema
Nema

5,480
51

5,786
64

2,485
21

2.6
2.2

0.5
0.4

11
17

25
16

EBAY-US
YHOO-US
4689-JP

E
-O

Meeker/Devitt
Meeker/Devitt
Nema

24
15
303

26
18
430

10
11
229

30.6
21.3
17.4

9.9
-3.4

13
-8

19
-18

Palm

MTN

MTN-ZA

Telefonica

Verizon
ClearWire

TEF-ES
VOD-GB
VZ-US
CLWR-US

Comcast
Cablevision

DeNA
Gree

//
eBay
(Yahoo!)
(Yahoo!)

FactSet

21



5 3G + + + +

22


9 iPhone + iTouch = 8x
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode Netscape
20
60

5700

50

iPhone + iTouch

Netscape*

07 6

94 12

40

2500

NTT docomo i-mode

30

99 6

20

1100

10

*
94 9 2.0

700

iPhone + iTouch

11

13

NTT docomo i-mode

15

17

19

Netscape

* 94 3 Netscape
07 10 8 3900

23

3G =

24

 3G =
2010 >20%
3G 2007 2014
43%

4,000
38%

36%

33%
3,000

2,776
27%

1,503

15%

8%

18%

1,055

11%
1,000

27%

1,928

21%

2,000

2,348

688

3G (%)

3G

2010
3G

45%

9%

430
273
0
2007

2008

2014
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012

3G

0%

3G

3G WCDMAHSPATD-SCDMA1xEV-DOLTE WiMax
Ovum Estimates

25

3G
+ = 20072008 = 2010 - 2014

3G* 2007 2014

2007

2008

2009

3G

79,617
17%

126,724
25%

205,962
39%

299,220
54%

381,422
67%

448,691
77%

499,686
85%

549,615
92%

3G

72,690
72%

88,434
84%

101,320
91%

110,823
96%

116,581
98%

120,463
99%

123,217
99%

124,770
100%

3G

50,163
4%

83,514
5%

151,192
7%

295,230
13%

482,981
19%

693,995
25%

918,063
31%

1,135,626
37%

3G

53,307
20%

83,460
29%

116,575
38%

145,683
46%

177,451
54%

204,835
61%

231,271
67%

260,575
74%

3G

8,785
2%

19,918
5%

40,944
9%

72,321
16%

120,291
26%

139,960
29%

166,288
34%

199,977
40%

3G

5,781
1%

18,424
3%

50,409
7%

91,085
12%

165,564
19%

239,805
25%

309,251
30%

383,238
35%

3G

3,126
1%

9,265
2%

21,875
4%

40,448
7%

59,107
10%

80,087
12%

100,027
15%

122,258
17%

273,469
8%

429,739
11%

688,278
15%

1,054,810
21%

1,503,397
27%

1,927,837
33%

2,347,804
38%

2,776,058
43%

3G

2010
2011

2012
2013
2014

2008 3G 3G* WCDMAHSPATD-SCDMA1xEV-DOLTE WiMax

Ovum Estimates

26

3G
1

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

30

09 2 3G
3G

103,110
37%
94,813
87
33,849
71
26,773
33
21,711
29
20,408
20
20,192
38
14,337
25
12,689
52
11,994
9
11,821
27
6,719
27
6,276
22
5,730
4
5,413
11
5,224
3
4,973
33
4,498
14
4,382
37
4,309
20
4,133
22
3,949
37
3,914
14
3,629
39
3,155
17
2,904
6
2,777
28
2,739
41
2,684
26
2,617
4

6,599
2,987
1,973
784
1,844
1,603
1,394
1,314
923
1,195
1,293
777
805
1,720
568
1,418
307
514
248
649
324
356
346
358
372
364
163
136
106
199

3G

55%
7%
16
3
24
6
21
3
52
9
43
9
47
7
75
10
41
8
71
11
93
12
94
13
151
15
481
43
101
12
426
37
31
7
47
13
35
6
75
18
38
8
53
10
65
10
50
11
134
13
103
14
23
6
28
5
19
4
59
8

3G
3G
21%
6%
-10
3
-26
6
328
3
29
8
-7
8
-18
7
62
9
-16
7
-2
10
48
11
33
12
24
13
-853
30
73
10
75
27
33
6
150
11
-31
6
228
15
42
8
41
9
50
9
30
10
94
12
145
13
-5
6
-37
5
0
4
-22
8

3G

2G +3G
2G

18%
3,207
-3,392
8
1,002
-1,985
5
839
-1,135
2
-1,660
-2,444
5
269
-1,575
4
147
-1,456
4
411
-983
4
831
-483
3
700
-223
3
1,639
444
4
414
-880
2
483
-294
2
351
-454
5
6,101
4,381
2
1,292
724
4
6,678
5,259
1
155
-152
1
2,698
2,184
1
57
-191
2
307
-342
1
278
-45
1
123
-233
1
684
338
1
110
-248
1
471
99
1
3,809
3,445
0
178
15
0
106
-30
0
76
-31
1
1,772
1,573

451,723

25%

31,640

44%

8%

23%

7%

88%

33,527

1,887

484,974

11%

36,130

46%

8%

29%

7%

100%

142,704

106,574

*Informa 3G Ovum 4G
3G CDMA 1x EV-DO Rev. A / BWCDMAHSPAInforma WCIS+

27

3G

GPS 2008 4.21

+57%/ = GPS 60%
3G 4.85 2 46%
11% 2013 44%//
30%
Wi-Fi 2008 3.19
42% 8.62 60% iPhone / iTouch
Wi-Fi 3G
Wi-Fi 3G 10
2008 13 45%
20

3G InformaWi-Fi AdMobWi-Fi Wi-Fi Alliance

iSuppli 4 iSuppliGPS Future Horizons
Howstuffworks.comBoy Genius ReportLetsbuy.com

28

29


Facebook
*
8.30 20%1.88 25%09 10

Facebook
4.30
137%

QQ +

6800
138% 1

Vkontakte
2300
22%

MySpace
1.10
08 10
14%

Skyrock
2100
10%

Twitter
5800
1238%
Hi5
4700
18%

6300
33%

CyWorld
2100
4%

2500
325%

Mixi
1400
4%

Friendster
1800
47%

Orkut
5400
20%

*1) QQ.com 09 1
QQ.com 09 1 comScore 09 10
Windows Live Profiles
56.comDeviantartDiggBuzz Media BebocomScore 09 10 30

Facebook (+ YouTube)

06 6 09 10

% Share of Global Minutes

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
6/06

9/06

12/06

Yahoo.com

3/07

6/07

Msn.com

9/07

12/07

Google.com

3/08

6/08

9/08

YouTube.com

12/08

3/09

6/09

9/09

Facebook.com

comScore global09 10

31

Facebook =
+ /

//
/

Facebookhow-to-travel-the-world.com

32

33

4.66 YouTube 35%730

70%09 10
4200 Hulu 77%09 10
1.67 14%1,090
169%09 10
5400 Xbox360Sony PS3TiVo
SlingboxVuduRoku,2008 59%
/
09 4 32%
07 12 24%

YouTube comScore Media Metrix

Hulu comScore Video Metrix
Pew Internet & American Life ProjectYouTubeNetflix

34


2013 66
131%

2008 2013

2,500,000

2,000,000

2008-2013

131%

112%

101%

154%

112%

19%
10%

1,500,000

1,000,000
64%

500,000

7%

0
2008

2009

2012
2013
2011
2010

2008-201309 2

35

36

 Skype
5.21 41% 8%
*
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

Telefonica Moviles / O2

Telenor
T-Mobile

Orange
Bharti Airtel

/
/

(1)

MTN
Mobile TeleSystems
Orascom
Verizon
AT&T Mobility

VimpelCom
NTT docomo

BSNL (3)
Turkcell

(2)

493
303
206
194
194
172
150
145
129
111
108
108
101
89
86
82
80
72
61
55
54
54
52
49
47

19%
23
9
-9
13
8
6
10
9
43
10
34
2
12
6
9
32
2
20
2
-3
-2
44
-4
--

3,195

10%

10

$11
37
41
11
13
20
37
6
50
5
9
15
8
6
51
51
3
37
13
61
80
62
3
13
8

-10%
3
-9
4
4
-3
-3
-4
0
-22
-18
-2
-28
-11
-2
1
-13
2
7
-8
-1
0
-35
-24
--

$192
123
137
38
80
24
64
32
69
25
32
28
20
24
86
155
19
30
6
64
155
64
-15
38

$23

2%

$1,520

Skype (5)
5.21

41%

* / 09 3
09 09 11 17 = 12.31 (1) 08 10
(2) / Verizon / DT RGU
(3) BSNL (5) Skype 09 3 2008 37
TelegeographyTelegeography

 =
1990 Windows 3.0
1995 Netscape Browser

iPhone + iTouch + App Store

38

 iPhone / iTouch = /
+ + + + (Wi-Fi + 3G)
iPhone / iTouch 07 6 09 9
5700
20

iPhone + iPod Touch

iPhone
50

40

1,600
1,400

3700

(000)

1,200
3000

iPhone

30

1,800

4500

iPod Touch

1,000
2200

800

20
1100

30

600

10

1300

800

10

400
200

200

2,000

0
6/07
6

9/07
8

12/07
21

3/08
17

6/08
17

9/08
22

12/08
34

3/09
31

6/09
32

9/09
41

60

* iPhone + iTouch + iTunes

39

08 3 + 09 3
52%
50%

25%

21%
23%
20%

8%
8%

7%
6%

5%
3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

3 9
3 8 3 9

Gartner

40

41

iPhone + iTouch

10
iPhone + iTouch Wii / DS / PSP / iPod /
60

Wii
50

iPhone + iTouch

40

DS
PSP

30
20

iPod

10

RIM

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

iPhone 07 2 iTouch 07 3 iPod 01 4 Wii 06 4

DS 04 4 PSP 05 1 2002
RIMKaty Huberty

42

iPhone Android =

HTML / + /
70%
65%
60%
HTML Net Applications09 4
50%

+ AdMob09 10

50%

45%
Gartner09 3
40%

30%
25%
21%
20%

17%

10%

11%
8%

7%

4%

8%

7%
3%

8%

6%
2% 3%

1%

3%

5%
1%

0%
iPhone

Symbian

Android

RIM

Palm

Windows

Net Applications 1.6 HTML Java

WAP
AdMob 09 10 Net Applications09 4 Gartner09 3

43

Android
Android
App
iPhone App
Market
Store

08 7

Windows
Mobile
Blackberry
App World Marketplace

08 10 09 4

Palm App
Catalog

09
09 6

10

1.5

3500

--

525

20

4000

--

--

100

iTunes

Google
Checkout/

PayPal

70%

70%

80%

70%

99 / 25 / 200 / 99 /

Mobile
Ovi
Applications
Store

09 5

09 1

LG
Application
Store

09 7

Verizon Vcast
Playnow Arena App Store
09 4

09 4

6000

3700

1400

3700

--

5000

--

--

--

--

/
PayPal

70%

70%

70%

80%

--

70%

99 /

--

--

SDK

+
iTunes

=
GizmodoDistimo09 12 )jkontherun.com

44

/
+

45

Facebook + iPhone / iTouch =

/

Facebook

4.30
137%

35
5

iPhone /
iTouch

5700
+163%
10
20

Facebook 09 10 09 9 PC WorldcomScoreFacebook

46

Facebook = 5
/ = 35 * 10

100

100

13,537

23%

418

56

4,778

42

4,604

59

2,279

66

2,015

76

11

1,981

1,431

400

44

10

61

37

752

102

59,427

Facebook * AppData
Facebook 350,000
FacebookAppData 09 11

47

 iPhone / iTouch = 20 14
( 35 ) + +

22.6
17.2
14.8
7.9
7.7
7.7
6.7
4.7
4.0
3.7
3.0
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.1
1.7
1.7
1.4
0.5

19.1%
14.6
12.5
6.7
6.5
6.5
5.6
4.0
3.4
3.1
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.5
1.4
1.2
0.4

15.7
12.5
13.5
7.1
5.5
6.4
4.7
3.9
2.2
2.8
2.4
2.2
1.4
1.7
2.0
1.1
1.4
1.1
1.1
0.4

69%
72
91
89
71
83
71
82
56
76
81
73
54
64
79
52
80
66
78
80

89.1

75%

118.4

09 12 8 09 11 / 10 /20
Mobclix iTunes

48

 iPhone / iTouch

Facebook

Facebook

/
/

/
/

Pandora Radio

Tap Tap Revenge

Shazam

//

PAC-MAN Lite

3D

iPone
iPone

Touch HockeyFS5

Labyrinth

Flashlight.

8/09.

49


Mixi = 72% 3 17%
Mixi 06 2 - 09 3
16,000
14,000

12,000
10,000

72%

8,000
6,000
4,000

28%
2,000
06
06
06
07
07
07
07
08
08
08
08
09
09
09
2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

Mixi 09 9 30 Mixi 1800

50

51

 =
70% iPhone 45%

40

iPhone
60
- 3%

- 3%
- 3%
- 3%
- 2%
- 4%

9%

8%

- 15%

70%

10%

45%

12%

14%

CTIA 27 70% iSuppli

40 iPhone
iSuppli 08 10

52

iPhone /

80%
65%

61%

58%

60%

52%
48%

48%
43%

40%

42%

40%

40%

35%
31%
23%

21%

20%

14%

12%

12%

15%

22%

18%

16%

12%

14%

14%

9%

9%
3%

4%

4%

2%

iPhone

0%

/ 09 9 3
comScore MobiLens 09 9

53


+ iPhones +
29%
1) 1,000MB 3G
2) iPhone (200MB) 3) (20MB)
/iPhone/2008 2013
1,200

29%

1
08
696MM

538MM

1,000

800

600

1,094MM
881MM

407MM
400

08-13

55%

iPhone

53%

23%

303MM

200

0
2008

2009

2010 2011 2012

2013

OvumiPhone Katy Huberty

54

100%

NTT docomo = 90%

80%

60%
= 70%

40%

20%

0%
05
05
06
06
07
07
08
08
09
2 4 2 4 2 4 2 4 2

NTT docomo

= 12 / 07 2

55

NTT docomo 54%

2%
NTT docomo /
05 2 09 3
140
120

MB//

100
80
60
40
20
0
05
2

05
4

06
2

06
4

07
2

3G

07
4

08
2

08
4

09
2

Hironori Tanaka

56

69%

32%

0%

4%

10%

20%

30%

30%

40%

50%

16%

14%

60%

70%

11%

24%

80%

90%

100%

09 6

57

/
/

58

30%

30%

HSPA 3.6 HSPA 7.2T1
$1,200 MM

$__MM
$1,200
MM

30%

Simon Flannery

59

T1 1
1.5 Mbps
12 T1
12 x 1.5 Mbps = 18 Mbps

3G HSPA 2 x 5 MHz =
10 MHz

2G3G4G

T1
1Gbps

FiberTower TTM

45 MbpsT1 30
400-600 Mbps

60

 2012 12
//
25 Mbps
2012 300 Mbps 129%

38% 3G
2009 40% 2011
90%
2009 2012

300

300

(Mb/s)

250
200
150
100
100
50
50

25

2010
2011
2012

FiberTower

61

3 /2 /HSPA 3.6 Mbps

150 MB
120%
100%

60%

40%

09 3 25%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

10%

5%

0%

0%

20%

80-90%

20%

15%

80%

75%

Ehud Gelblum

62


12-24

HSPA

/ +

Wi-Fi/Femtocell

2-4

LTE

WiChorus3GPP.orgWiMax.orgEhud Gelblum

63


2010 HSPA 60-70%
3 /2 /HSPA 7.2 Mbps
300 MB

100%
80%

60%
40%
2010
40%

20%

60-70%

0%
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

75%

Ehud Gelblum

64


2.5G 3G /
ASP
/

2G

2.1 GHz
UMTS-900

65


ASP

66

GPRS

100%

80%

60%

WCDMA
HSPA
50%

HSPA LTE

50%

40%

20%

0%
GPRS

EDGE (2.5G)

WCDMA (3G)

HSDPA (3.5G)

HSPA+

LTE (4G)

OvumTelstra2008

67

 ASP

2001 2008
$2,500

ASP

$2,000

$1,500

$1,000

$500

$0
2001

2002
WCDMA

2003

2004

2005

GSM/GPRS/EDGE

2006

2007

2008

CDMA
Dell Oro

68

+ /DPI +

/DPI

/
IP

/
(P2P)

//

DragonWave

Ehud Gelblum

69

70

(EM)
(SME) VAS

3G

71


2012 3G 3G 6
3G 20-25% 3G
1,200
1,090

2012 3G =
1,000

61 3G (2004)
17 3G (2008)

3G

800

12 3G (2008)

600
20-25% 3G
400

200
63

91

2004

2008

2008

2012

18
0

20-25% 3G

3G 20-25% ITU

72

73

74

2008

2007

57%

44%
34%

BBC

(Yahoo!)

BBC

56%

56%
40%

Facebook

24%

82%

31%

Webmails

15%

eBay

11%

YouTube

30%

11%

28%

Webmails

10%

27%

7%

7%
0%

20%

25%

(Yahoo!)

40%

60%

80%

100%

22%
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

82% 2008 Google

2007 44%

75

76

 46
2005 28 1994
05 3
($)

YouTube
(Yahoo!)
MySpace

09 3
($)

$28.20

$46.41

644

1,165

$10.22

$20.06

$6.94

$6.26

--

$3.55

$2.97

$2.37

$7.66

$4.29

YouTube

--

$0.59

ZenithOptimedia05 12 09 10 (Yahoo!)
YouTube
comScore ITU

77

78


2009 22
(ARPU) 24
2006 2013
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

$547
--

$889
62%

$1,464
65%

$2,207
51%

$3,132
42%

$4,307
38%

$5,763
34%

$7,359
28%

$296
--

$490
66%

$841
72%

$1,288
53%

$1,858
44%

$2,564
38%

$3,418
33%

$4,439
30%

18
--

26
44%

37
43%

46
25%

55
20%

64
17%

74
15%

84
14%

$1
--

$2
15%

$2
20%

$2
23%

$3
20%

$3
18%

$4
16%

$4
14%

$252
--

$399
58%

$623
56%

$918
47%

$1,274
39%

$1,743
37%

$2,346
35%

$2,920
25%

ARPU /// +
Richard Ji

79

 + iTunes

80

 + +

50

2008 910
30% -

40%

35%

...
5%

25%

50 2008
FactSet

81

2008 370

5%
76% -

...
54%

73%

22%

IDCeMarketerJuniper Research

82

83

 2008 =
2000 = 2008 66% 88%

100%

1%
2%
9%

2%
4%
10%

80%

11%

21%

60%

40%

88%

86%

66%

20%

0%

2008

1940

2008
2000

60

430

///Nema Naoshi/Hironori
Tanaka

84

85

/ 11
1860
2000 2009
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

TAC $19
8585%

$86
352%

$345
299%

$939
172%

$1,961
109%

$4,024
105%

$7,296
81%

$11,660
60%

$15,857
36%

$17,483
10%

(%)

-$12
-64%

$23
27%

$208
60%

$583
62%

$1,131
58%

$2,330
58%

$4,049
55%

$5,957
51%

$7,847
49%

$9,464
54%

20

54

181

233

284

389

452

532

685

812

$1

$2

$2

$4

$7

$10

$16

$22

$23

$22

--

--

--

--

--

14,410

23,773

33,829

40,182

46,157

CPC

--

--

--

--

--

$0.42

$0.44

$0.49

$0.53

$0.50

10

--

--

--

--

$51

$122

$142

$216

$97

$186

--

--

--

--

$181

$313

$315

$407

$142

$229

04 8 14 TAC comScore
YouTube 2005 MediaMetrix
FactSet2009E
09 12 8 comScoreFactSet

86

 11
350
2001

2002

2003

2004

$7
--

$39
436%

$108
179%

$168
56%

(IVAS)

$0

$6

$34

(MVAS)

$6

$29

$1

2005

2006

2007

2008

$210
25%

$412
96%

$562
36%

$65

$116

$268

$370

$723

$1,391

$69

$94

$76

$103

$119

$206

$268

$3

$5

$8

$17

$39

$73

$121

$139

$0

$1

$1

$1

$1

$1

$1

$2

$5

(%)

$2
21%

$21
54%

$49
46%

$69
41%

$71
34%

$171
42%

$240
43%

$477
45%

$877
49%

22

49

68

108

168

217

266

338

446

$0

$1

$2

$2

$1

$2

$2

$3

$4

10

--

--

--

$1

$2

$6

$14

$12

$35

--

--

--

$10

$11

$29

$51

$34

$78

$1,052
87%

2009

$1,803
71%

04 6 16 IVAS MVAS
QQ FactSet2009
09 12 5 1 = 6.8 comScoreFactSet

87

/15
580

1996

$16
--

1997
$148
839%

1998

1999

2000

$610
$1,640 $2,762
313%
169%
68%

2006

2007

2009
2008

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

$3,122
13%

$3,933
26%

$5,264
34%

$6,921
31%

$8,490 $10,711 $14,836 $19,166 $23,694

23%
26%
39%
29%
24%

--

--

--

--

$2,176

$2,456

$3,099

$4,049

$5,102

$5,931

$7,066

$9,243 $11,083 $12,307

EGM

--

--

--

--

$481

$594

$747

$1,103

$1,686

$2,329

$3,361

$5,209

--

--

--

--

$104

$73

$87

$112

$133

$230

$284

$384

$542

$639

-$6
-38%

-$32
-22%

-$61
-10%

-$352
-21%

-$317
-11%

-$45
-1%

$180
5%

$361
7%

$490
7%

$559
7%

$501
5%

$849
6%

$1,094
6%

$1,495
6%

--

--

--

14

20

25

31

39

47

55

64

76

88

101

--

--

--

$116

$139

$126

$127

$133

$147

$154

$167

$195

$218

$234

10

--

$1

$17

$26

$6

$4

$7

$21

$18

$20

$16

$39

$22

$58

--

--

--

$1,863

$281

$163

$236

$537

$386

$357

$255

$507

$249

$575

(%)

$7,541 $10,748

97 5 17 EGM FactSet
2009 09 12 8 FactSet

88

/8
1660
07 2 09 3
07

09
2 3

13%
iTunes
11%

$2,533

Mac

$1,571

iPod

$3,952

11%

$1,563

$5

iPhone

$2,297

$608

iTunes

$1,018

$693

Others

$1,040

iTunes
10%
Mac 40%

Mac 47%

iPod 29%

$5,410
19%

1,340

$9,870

iPhone 23%
iPod 16%

22%
1,710

09 12 8 FactSet

89

90

//
Windows 16 2400

1994

1995

$4,159
--

$5,358
29%

$7,661
43%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

$3,166

$2,990

$3,262

$3,593

$6,457

$7,093

$8,305

$7,686

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

$33

$0

$0

$0

$23

$28

$126

$252

$1,469
35%

$1,925
36%

$2,575
34%

$3,567
36%

$6,235
45%

--

--

--

--

--

328

382

443

504

562

625

695

772

859

955

1072

1160

--

--

--

--

--

$54

$57

$54

$53

$55

$55

$55

$54

$54

$61

$58

$50

10

$25

$30

$53

$72

$152

$268

$461

$423

$393

$293

$276

$310

$266

$234

$276

$252

$265

--

--

--

--

--

$817

$1,205

$955

$779

$522

$442

$446

$344

$273

$290

$235

$229

(%)

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2009
2008

1993

$9,891 $13,849 $17,524 $21,855 $23,776 $26,847 $30,785 $34,268 $38,474 $41,360 $46,060 $57,898 $61,981 $57,447
29%
40%
27%
25%
9%
13%
15%
11%
12%
8%
11%
26%
7%
-7%
$10,058 $10,921 $11,851 $12,569 $12,391 $17,552 $16,738 $15,109
$5,494

$6,534

$7,857

$8,868 $10,432 $11,992 $14,164 $14,206

$1,737

$2,104

$2,344

$2,337

$2,304

$2,845

$2,810

$2,136

$10,297 $11,719 $13,160 $13,993 $14,453 $18,388 $19,838 $18,058

$8,705 $11,304 $11,505 $12,301 $11,643 $11,908 $15,715 $16,907 $16,466 $24,119 $23,448 $19,878
50%
52%
48%
46%
38%
35%
41%
41%
36%
42%
38%
35%

1986 FactSet2009
09 12 8 FactSet

91

92


AdMob, Inc ("AdMob")2009119
AdMob
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plcVimpelcom Ltd "Newco"Telenor ASA "Telenor"Altimo Holdings & Investments Ltd"Altimo"
TelenorAltimo"Vimpel-Communications" ("VimpelCom")Kyivstar G.S.M
VimpelComTelenor

Morgan Stanley & Co. IncorporatedClearwire("Clearwire") ClearwireClearwire

20091110Clearwire
MTNOFAC
MTNOFAC
Verizon WirelessAT&TAtlantic Tele-NetworkVerizon Wireless
Alltel CorporationVerizon Wireless

Morgan Stanley Bank International LimitedTelecomTelefonica S.A.HanseNet Telekommunikation GmbH

Morgan Stanley & Co. LimitedPortugal Telecom SGPSMdi Telecom200991

Morgan Stanley, S.V., S.A.USogecable S.A Telefonica, S.A 21%2009925

Morgan Stanley & Co. LimitedTDC A/SSunrise Communications AGOrange Switzerland20099

25

93


Morgan Stanley Bank AG AGFreenet AGSTRATO AGSTRATO Rechenzentrum AG
20091119

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plcLG Telecom LtdLG TelecomLG TelecomLG Dacom CorporationLG Dacom
LG Powercom CorporationLG Powercom20091015

3Com3Com200911113Com
iiiiii

Comcast"Comcast"GENBC UniversalComcast
Comcast

Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated/Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A

www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures
1585 Broadway, New York, NY, 10036 USA

Yvonne ChowJames DawsonNick DelfasSanjay DevganScott DevittSimon FlannerySean GardinerEhud GelblumKeon HanAdam HoltKathryn
HubertyVinay JaisingNavin KillaMark LipacisBill Lu Jasmine LuMary Meeker.Naoshi NemaPatrick StandaertBenjamin Swinburne
Hironori Tanaka

www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/conflictpolicies

94

/James Dawson TelefonicaBill Lu

- Jasmine Lu- Mary Meeker.-eBay

GICSMSCI
200911301%1%AdobeADTRAN
America MovilArubaAT&TBlue NileCablevision
ComcastDeNADigital RivereAccesseBayGSI COMMERCEHTC
IAC/InterActiveCorpMercadolibreNetflixOpenTablePalm priceline.com
RIMSBATelecom ItaliaTelefonicaTelekom Austria
VerizonVistaprint N.V.WebMD Health Corp
200911301001003Com
AdobeAmerica MovilAmerican Tower CorpAT&TBharti AirtelCablevision
ComcastCorning Inc. Crown Castle Corp eBayGSI COMMERCE
IAC/InterActiveCorpIliad JuniperKDDILGLimited Brands IncMobile TeleSystems
NTT DOCOMOPalm, IncSK Sprint NextelTelecom ItaliaTelefonicaTelekom
AustriaTelstra CorporationVerizon
12144A America MovilAmerican Tower Corp
CablevisionClearwireComcastCrown Castle CorpGSI COMMERCENetflixPalm, Inc
Telecom ItaliaTelefonicaVerizon
12AdobeAmerica MovilAmerican Tower CorpARMAT&T
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Brands Inc Netflix NTT DOCOMOPalm, Incpriceline.com SK
Sprint Nextel Telecom ItaliaTelefonica Verizon
3 Adobe ADTRAN Inc. America Movil American Tower Corp
ARMAT&TBlue Nile Inc Cablevision Clearwire
ComcastCorning Inc. Crown Castle Corp DiceDigital River InceBay Etihad EtisalatGlu
Mobile Inc GSI COMMERCE HTC Corporation IAC/InterActiveCorp Iliad Juniper
LG Mercadolibre IncMobile TeleSystems Netflix
NTT DOCOMO OpenTable Inc.Palm, Inc. priceline.com RIMRiverbedSafaricomSBA Communications
SKSprint NextelTechTarget, Inc Telecom ItaliaTelefonicaTelekom Austria
Telstra CorporationVerizonVimpelcomVistaprint N.V., WebMD Health Corp
AdMob, Inc.AmobeeFacebookGilt Groupe, Inc.MegaFonNgmoco, Inc,Tom OnlineTwitter, Inc. Viettel CorporationZillow.Com
Zynga Game Network Inc.

95


12America MovilAT&T
eBayIAC/InterActiveCorpLG
priceline.com SK Telecom ItaliaTelefonica
Verizon
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MovilAmerican Tower Corp ARMAT&T Blue Nile Inc Cablevision
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Etihad Etisalat Glu Mobile IncGreeGSI COMMERCEHTC Corporation IAC/InterActiveCorp
Iliad Juniper LG Limited Brands Inc Mercadolibre
IncMobile TeleSystemsNetflixNTT DOCOMOOpenTable Inc Palm, Incpriceline.com
RIMRiverbedSafaricomSBA CommunicationsSKSprint Nextel TechTarget, Inc
Telecom ItaliaTelefonicaTelekom Austria Telstra Corporation Verizon
Vimpelcom Vistaprint N.VWebMD Health Corp AdMob, IncAmobeeFacebookGilt Groupe, IncMegafon
Ngmoco, IncTom Online Twitter, Inc.Viettel CorporationZillow.ComZynga Game Network IncBroadcom Corporation

12/3Com
AdobeADTRAN Inc America Movil American Tower Corp ARMAT&T
ClearwireComcastCorning Inc.Crown Castle CorpDeNA eAccesseBay
IAC/InterActiveCorpJuniperLGMobile TeleSystems
Netflix NTT DOCOMO OpenTable Inc. priceline.com SK
Sprint Nextel Telecom Italia TelefonicaTelstra Corporation Verizon

12 Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated Broadcom Corporation

AT&TEtihad EtisalatVerizon
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated1-800-Flowers.com, Inc3Com AdobeADTRAN IncAmerican Tower Corp
Aruba Networks, Inc AT&TBlue Nile IncCablevisionClearwireComcast
Corning Inc. Crown Castle CorpDice Digital River Inc drugstore.comeBay EchoStar Corporation GSI COMMERCE
IAC/InterActiveCorp JuniperLimited Brands Inc Mercadolibre Inc
Netflix NETGEAR IncOverstock.com Inc,Palm, Incpriceline.com Riverbed SBA Communications Shutterfly Inc
Sprint NextelTechTarget, Inc VerizonVistaprint N.VWebMD Health CorpWestern Digital
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporatedy
SkypeeBay
UrbanspoonIAC
Victorias SecretLimited Brands

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ArqivaMacQuarie Communications Infrastructure Group (MCG)MCGMacquaries Group Limited

/
/

(20091130)
(NASDNYSE),

()

(IBC)

915

38%

284

41%

31%

1077

45%

312

45%

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25

1%

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[Overweight (O)].1218
[Equal-weight (E)]. 1218
[Not-Rated (NR)]. 1218

[Underweight (U)]. 1218

1218

[Attractive (A)]: /1218

[In-Line (I)]: /1218
[Cautious (C)]: /1218
500 MSCIMSCIMSCIMSCI

98


()

99


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100


()(contd)

101


Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC
Citi Investment Research & Analysis (CIRA)
CIRA
Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLCCitigroup Global Markets Inc.Morgan
Stanley Smith Barneywww.morganstanleysmithbarney.com/researchdisclosures.
Morgan StanleyCitigroup Global Markets, Incwww.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures
https://www.citigroupgeo.com/geopublic/Disclosures/index_a.html.
Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC

"Tactical Idea"
www.morganstanley.com.

/
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//
/

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/Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited (MSTL)
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Morgen Stanley Asia Limited

Morgan Stanley Japan Securities Co.,Ltd.Morgan Stanley Asia Limited ();Morgan Stanley
Asia (Singapore) Pte. (199206298Z) /Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (200008434H)
; Morgan Stanley Australia Limited A.B.N. 67 003 734 576
233742Morgan Stanley Smith Barney Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, 240813)
Morgan Stanley & Co International plcMorgan Stanley India Company Private
LimitedMorgan Stanley Canada LimitedMorgan Stanley Bank
AGMorgan Stanley Private Wealth Management Limited, Niederlassung DeutschlandBaFinMorgan
Stanley, S.V., S.A.CNMVMorgan Stanley
& Co. IncorporatedMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc 2000
21Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management Limited
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plcMorgan Stanley Private Wealth ManagementRMB Morgan Stanley (Proprietary)
Limited JSE LimitedRMB Morgan Stanley (Proprietary) Limited Morgan Stanley International Holdings Inc.
RMB Investment Advisory (Proprietary) Limited50%RMB Investment Advisory (Proprietary) LimitedFirst Rand Limited
Morgan Stanley & Co.International plc (DIFC Branch)(the DFSA)

Morgan Stanley & Co.International plc (QFC Branch) (the QFCRA)

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MTNOFAC
MTNOFAC

GICSMSC

2009 Morgan Stanley

104