ne ‘amscions on Power Sysems Yo. 7, No.1, Ferny 992 ‘SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING USING "AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK K, Y. Lee, Senior Member, . T. Cha, Student Member ‘Becsieal Engineering Department Pennsylvania State Univesity University Park, PA 16802 “Abstzact~ Arial Neural Network (ANN) Method is ap- plied vo forecast the short-term lod for & large power system, ‘The load has two distinct patterns: weekday and weekend-day paties, The weekend-dey pattern include Saturday, Sanday, thd Monday loads, A nonlinear load model is propered and Several structures of ANN for shortterm load forecasting are tested. aputs to the ANN are past loads and the output of the ANN is the lod forecast fora given day. The network with fone or two hidden layers ae texted with various combination of tpeurons, and results tre compared in terms of forecasting ero ‘The nevral network, when grouped into diferent losd patierns, tives good load forecast. ‘Kerman - Neural network, loa forecasting, backpropags- tion algorithms | 1 INTRODUCTION In order to eupply high guaty electric energy tothe cus- tomer ins secure and economic manner, an electric company feces many economical and technical problems in operation, planning, and control of an electric energy system, For the purpose of optimal planning and operation of this large scale Systes, modern system theary and optimization techniques are being applied with the expectation of considerable cot savings. {m achieving this goal the knowledge of foture power system Jad isthe fost prerequisite: therefore, long- and short-term load predictions are very important sobect, ‘The load prediction period may be month ot year for the long: and the mediom-tetaforecerts1), and day oF hour forthe shorter forecst2-), ‘Te long- and the mediumeterm fore- Cate ace used to determine the eapaciy of generation, tansmit~ Sion, or distribution system additions, and the type of facilities Fequired in transmission expansion planning, annoal hydrother- taal maintenance echedvling, ete. ‘The short-term forecast ix heeded for control and scheduling of power system, and also as Inputs to load flow study or coatingency analysis, ‘There are several clase of lod forecasting models reported in ierature[), Some load models which use no weather infor. ration have been represented by time sequences2-4). The other Joad models have incloded the efecte of weather variables onthe power system lond&-]- The former ix bated on the extrapola- by the IEEE Power Syston Engineering Comteten of the TEEE Power Pagiecring Society for presentation Sc'ehe Tepeytes 91 Bineer Meeting, New York, in G5 abn ade wattle fr peneing 3. H. Park, Member lectrial Engineering Department Posan National Uaiversity nan 600-85, Koren tion and the load behavior i represented by Fourier series oF trend curves in erm of time fonctions]. More recently, state ‘arable modeb[d) and autoregressive moving average(ARMA) smodeisi] have also been developed to describe the load be Ihevioe, For the modes including weather variable, the total Toad is decomposed into the weather sensitive load and the non- ‘weather sensitive loud|s-1). The weather sensitive load Is mostly Predicted sing the correlation techniques andthe nonoweather| Fensitive load is modeled by the method mentioned above. Each Joed component ls predicted separately and the sum gives the forecast ofthe total lad. "Theres another approsch thet doesn't assume pec ond ‘model bt try to find the role beeen the historical load date nd dry bul temperature from the expert system point of view Ib]. The objective of thi approach is to use the knowledge, experience and analogical thinking of experienced syste oper tiers. Recetly avthors developed a new method of adaptively Hentfying the load model whi reeets the stochastic behave ior without the aid of weather variables (10). They decomposed the load model into three components: the nominal loud, the fesiduel load and the type load. The parameters ofthe model re adapted to the load variations. Forecasting has been mentioned as one ofthe most promise ing application acest of afl neual network (ANN). Several tuthore have attempted to apply the backpropagation learning Elgort [11] to train ANNé for forecasting time series. AP- plication of this idea to the real world problem can be found In Werbos's work [12], where he applied the backpropagation llgorthm to the recerrent gus market model. There was also { begative opinion [13 tht the forecasting ability ofthe Back- propagation algorthin was inferior to simple linear regression Recently, However, the National Seience Foundation organized {workshop to addrees the importance of ANN in power sy fem engineering, and authore demoastrated that ANN can be Sueceeflly ued in short-term load forecasting with accepted ecoracy [1 In this pape the backpropagation algorithm i proposed as fa methodology for eleire load forecasting. A nonlinear iad Iodel is suggested and the parameters of the nonlinear load node] are estimated uaig the backpropagation algorithm. Test fesultshowe a satisfactory use of the ANN, and the percentage Forecating error was about 2%. 2. CLASSIFICATION AND CHARACTERISTICS OF LOADS Fig. 1 illostrates the hourly load curves for February 6 121, 1987, The figure ehowe day and weekly lad variations the load behavior for weekdays (Tuesday through Friday) hes f same pattern but shall random variations from varying in- Aloptral activities, weather conditions, etc. ‘The weekday load Dattere ie diferent fom Satordss, Sunday, and Monday Josd patterns, Comparing weekday louds with Saturday loads, the es soss2sos 4961807 IEEEsevel of Saturday londs i relatively Jow during p.m. The level Gf Monday loads Gating am. influenced by Sanday is very low ‘Aso the let andthe 3rd Sunday loads are lower than the 2nd tod the 4th Sunday loads di to reduction in industrial or com fnercal activities observed in Korea (10). These phenomena oualy affects Monday loade during am. Therefore daily load Curves are classified as weekday and weekend-dey patter. The \nettend-day patterns are grouped into five different type loxds a= (12, 5): Seturdaye (2 1), the Ist and the Sed Sune ‘andthe Sth Sundays (4 = 3), the ), the Ind, the ath and the Sth ee Bese peeee sera ieee Fig. 1 Hourly load curve over tro weeks 3, ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK An artificial neural network (ANN) as a compoting sys tem in made up of @ numberof simple, and highly intercon hevied proceaing element, which processes formation by is ‘dynamic state response to external impute. In recent tines the Hudy of the ANN models is gaining rapid and increasing im portance because of their potential to offer slutions to some of the problems which have hitherto been intractable by standard terial computers inthe areas of computer science and artfial intelligence. Neural networks are better auted for achieving human-like performance inthe fede such ax speach processing, lmage recognition, machine vision, robotic contol, et. outputs Inputs Fig. 2 Schematic of feedtorward neural network ns Fig, 2 shows a schematic ofa generic feedforward network which tthe most commonly used ANN model Procesing o- fements in an ANN are alzo known as neurons. ‘These neusons fare interconnected by means of information channels called in- terconnections, Each seuron can have multiple impute, while there can be only one output (Fig. 9 a). Inputs to a nevron ‘could be frm external stim or could be from output of the ther neurons, Copic ofthe single output that comes from a nevron could be input to many other neuzons in the network tis also posible that one af the copies ofthe neurons output could be input to itself es a feedback. There isa connection ttrength, synapees, or weight sociated with each connection When the weighted som ofthe inputs to the neuron exceeds @ certain threshold, the nebron ie fired and an output signal is reduced. ‘The network can recgaize inpat patterns once the Steights ate adjusted or tuned vin some kind of learning process ‘The backpropagetion learning algorithm is the most fre quently used method in training the networks, and proposed 1B an electrical load forecsting methodology inthis paper. For the completenee of the paper, the backpropagation algorithm wil be introduced bret. "The backpropagation learning algorithm is a generalize tion of the Widrow Hoff error correction rule [5]. The origi- hal Widrov-Hof echaigue formed an eror signal, which is the {Eiference between what the output is and what it was suppose to be, uty the rlerence or target cutput. Synaptic strength, fr weights, were changed in proportion 0 the eror times the inpat signal, which diminishes th exzor in the direction ofthe sradient. In a multilayer network (Fig. 2} containing hidden unit, ‘hati, units that are neither input nor output unit, the prob- Jem is muuch more eifcut, The error tgaal can be formed as ‘elore, but many synapses can give rite othe error, not just the tones atthe output unite, Since we usually do not know what the target outputs of the hidden units are, we cannot directly ‘compute the ertor signal for hidden units (3) Mahomet mode of sare to Fig. 5 Schematic ofan artificial nearon‘The “generalized delta rule is sugested by Rumelhart, et a. and gives etecpe for adjusting the weights on internal unite ‘ased on the error atthe output [1], To be more speci, let B= 1D tend, o be the meazure of error on pattern p and let E =, By be the ‘overall measure ofthe error, where fyy isthe target output for [sth component ofthe output pattern for pattern p and op; is the th component of the ataal outpat pattern produced by the network reprerentation with inpst pattern p ‘The network i specified as O75 = filets ° ates = Diners ) where fj ie a diferentiable and nondecreasing function and wn Tea weight to be Adjusted. The funtion f, is normally sigmoid ‘ype function as shown in Fig. $b ‘To obtain a rule for adjusting weights, the gradient of Ey with respect to wy: i weed and i is reprented as follows 2 Fe where yj is defined in two ways. Ifa uni san output unit, i is given by rs @ bys = (os ~ onsVslnety) 0 and fora unit in an arbitrary hidden layer Fig. 4 Flowchart for the backpropagatin algorithm Fi(metys) So Gentnsy 6) ere 6 the derietive of fy ‘The role of adjusting weights can be derived using eq. (4), and given a2 Awyifn +1) igsops + adwyeln)s 0 where» isthe lacning rate parameter and a le the momentum Constant to determine the effect of past weight changes, ‘The fowenart for the backpropagation learing eigorithe following fae (1)() ie shown i Fig 4. LOAD FORECASTING USING BACKPROPAGATION ALGORITHM In this section two diferent methods of application of ANN are presented in the short-term load forecasting. Method 1 isa Hate approach which forecast the 4-hoor load simltaneouss, While Method 2 is 8 dynamic approach in the sese that the D&chour lod is forecarted sequentially using the previous time forecasts + Method 1 ‘The load data were anand and the load patterns were Cdassifed, ‘The current load iv acted by the past loads and ‘the pattern in which the curren lad i included. For example, ‘Monday loads ate aferted by Sunday and Saturday loads and ‘het patterns are similar. Therefore the llowing nonlinear load ‘mode s proposed for one-day ahead forecasting wi) = FWY, ® where WU) = Aplt) st = 124-524) + the actual load vector at ay aft}: the actual load at day i, time ¢ YG=1) = nli=1),0l8— 2 980— WF 22 index for data length We the weight vector F(,.) nonlinear vector fonction representing ANN. In contrast to the conventional approsches, the noslinesr function is used with the weight vector to represent the load rode. The weight vector W; can be thought of ar the storage that contains «certain load pattern, and F\.”) isthe general nonlinear function that can comprise all the load patterns ‘The lond patterns were clasified into woekday pattern and vweekend-day patterne. In order to forecast the load y() the veeight vector should be estimated wsing previous load data for each pattern, Weekdays ‘To etimate the weekday load pattern for day i, three latest weekdays are used to adjust the weight as follows: wli= 1) = FWY (2), ©) Where the output date off ~1) ls the latest weekday load, the Input data ¥(G~2) = [y= 2) {i ~ 9)? ts the next two lates weekday loads and Ws the etimated waight vector using these Input and outpot dasa,