STPM Mathematics (T) Assignment B: Mathematical Modelling (2013)

ASSIGNMENT B
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING

954/4 STPM

MATHEMATICS (T)

PAPER 4

MALAYSIAN EXAMINATIONS COUNCIL

MALAYSIA HIGHER SCHOOL CERTIFICATE

Second Term: Calculus (2013)

By

Stephen, P. Y. Bong

STPM MATHEMATICS (T) ASSIGNMENT B: MATHEMATICAL MODELLING (2013)

STEPHEN, P. Y. BONG (APRIL 2013) Page 2 of 11
ASSIGNMENT PROBLEMS

The population of Aedes mosquitoes which carry the Dengue virus can be modeled by a
differential equation which describes the rate of growth of the population. The population
growth rate
d
d
P
t
is given by
d
1
d
P P
rP
t k
1

=

( )
, where r is a positive constant and k is the
carrying capacity.

1. When the population is small, the relative growth rate is almost constant. What do you
understand by the term relative growth rate?

2. (a) Show that if the population does not exceed its carrying capacity, then the population
is increasing.

(b) Show that if the population exceeds its carrying capacity, then the population is
decreasing.

3. (a) Suppose that the initial population is P
0
. Discuss, by considering the sign of
d
d
P
t
, the
relationship between P and k if P
0
is less than k and if P
0
is greater than k.

(b)Determine the value of P for constant growth, increasing growth and declining growth.

4. Determine the maximum value of
d
d
P
t
and interpret the meaning of this maximum value.

5. Express P in terms of r, k and t. Using different initial population sizes P
0
, r, and k, plot,
on the same axes, a few graphs to show the behavior of P versus t.

6. The population sizes of the mosquitoes in a certain area at different times, in days, are
given in the table below.

Time Number of mosquitoes Time Number of mosquitoes
0 49 245 701
35 77 252 712
63 125 322 776
91 196 371 791
105 240 392 794
126 316 406 796
140 371 441 798
182 534 504 799
203 603 539 800
224 658 567 800

It is interesting to determine the carrying capacity and the growth rate based on the above data
to control the population of Aedes mosquitoes. Using different values of P and t, plot P/t
against P and hence obtain the approximate values for r and k.

SOLUTION TO ASSIGNMENT PROBLEMS

Question 1
The term relative growth rate mentioned in Question 1 is the ratio of population growth rate
relative to the size of population which can be mathematically expressed by dividing P on
both sides of the differential equation:
d
1
d
1 1 d
1
d
1 P P
rP
t
P P
r
P t k k P P
1

=

1

=
( )

When the size of population, P, is relatively small as compared to the carrying capacity, k,
then,
0
P
k

As P/k approaches 0, then
( )
1 d
1 0
1
d
d
d
P P
r
P t
r
P t

Hence, it can be verified that when the size of the population is small or relatively small as
compared to the carrying capacity, then the relative growth rate is approximately a constant.

Question 2(a) (If the population does not exceeds the carrying capacity, P < k)
If P < k, then
1 1 0
P
k
P
P k
k
< <

Since the term 1 (P/k) is greater than zero, thus, it will results in the upsurge of population
growth rate.

Question 2(b) (If the population exceeds the carrying capacity, P > k)
If P > k, then
1 1 0
P
k
P
P k
k
<

The inequality above has clearly portrayed that reduction in population growth rate will
occurred if the population exceeds the carrying capacity.


Question 3 (a)
In order to obtain the relationship between the initial population, P
0
, population, P, and the
carrying capacity, k; a general solution of the differential equation that governs the rate of
growth of the population is a necessary precursor. The general solution of the differential
equation can be derived by the employment of separable variable as follows:
d d
1 d
d
1
P P P
rP r t
t P
k
P
k
1

= =

1
( )

( )

Integrating both sides with their corresponding variables
d
d
1
r t
k
P
P
P
=
1

( )

In order to perform integration on the L. H. S. of the equation, partial fraction decomposition
is required. Thus, by letting
( )
1
1
1 1 1
P
A B P
A B k
P P P P
P P
k k k
1

( )
= =
1 1

( ) ( )

By comparing the numerators,
( ) 1 1
P
A B P
k
1

=

( )

By putting P = 0 and P = k gives A = 1 and B = 1/k respectively. Hence, the partial fraction
decomposition is given by
1 1 1
1 1
P P P
P k
k k
=
1 1

( ) ( )

Substituting the partial fraction into the L. H. S. of the equation and perform integration yields
1 1
d d
1
ln ln 1 C
P r t
P P
k
k
P
P rt
k
' '
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
=
! !
1 1 1
1 1
1 1

1 1
( )
1 1
+ +
=


Question 3(a) (Continued)
By using the property of logarithms:
ln ln ln
A
B
A B =

C
ln C e
1 1
rt
P P
k k
P P
rt

= =

Since e
rt + C
= e
rt
e
C
, therefore,
C C
e e e ; e
1 1
rt rt
P P
k k
P P
A A = = =

Rearranging terms to make P the subject of the equation gives
e
e
rt
rt
kA
P
k A
=

Multiplying both the numerator and denominator by e
rt
result in

e
rt
kA
P
A k

=

Given that the initial population is P
0
, i.e. P(t = 0) = P
0
, thus,
0
0
0

kP kA
P A
A k k P
= =

Substituting
0
0
kP
A
k P
=
into
e
e
rt
rt
kA
P
k A
=
and simplifying gives

( )
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
=
e
e
rt
rt
kP
k P
kP
k
k
k
P
P
P
P
P k
k

Therefore, the general solution of the differential equation that governs the population of
Aedes mosquitoes is given by
( )
( )
0
0 0
e
rt
kP
P t
P k P

=


For r > 0 and t 0, the range of the exponential function e
rt
is 0 < e
rt
1. Multiply each term
in the inequality by (k P
0
) gives
( ) ( )
0 0
0 e 1
0 e
rt
rt
k P k P
<
<

Adding P
0
on all the terms in the inequality above yields
( ) ( )
( )
0 0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0 e
e
rt
rt
k P k P
P P
P P P
k P k
<
<

Inverting all the terms in the inequality gives
( )
0
0 0
1 1 1
e
rt
P k
P k P

Multiplying kP
0
to each term in the inequality:
( )
0 0 0
0
0 0
e
rt
P kP k
P k
P k
k
P
P

Simplifying gives
0
k P P

Thus, for the case if P
0
< k or k P
0
> 0, then
k > P P
0

Likewise, if P
0
> k or k P
0
< 0, then
k < P P
0

Question 3(b)
For constant growth, dP/dt = 0. If dP/dt = 0, then
1 0
0 or 1 0
or 0
P
rP
k
P
p P k
rp
k
1

=

( )
= =
= =

Based on the table below, the range of values of P that result in increasing growth is 0 < P < k.
0 P < 0 P k < < P k
rP

1
P
k

Resulting sign ( )
( )
( )


Question 3(b) (Continued)
Since it is impossible to have population that is less than zero, thus, declining growth will be
consequence if and only if the population exceeds the carrying capacity, P > k.

Question 4
In order to determine the maximum value of dP/dt, second derivative test is employed.
Differentiating dP/dt implicitly with respect to time gives

( ) ( )
( )
( )
2
2
2 2
d d
d d
d d d
d d d
d d d d
d d d d
d
2
d
r
rP P
t t k
P r
rP P
t t t k
r r
r P P r P P
t t k t t k
P r
r P
t k
1

( )
1 1

=

( ) ( )
' ' ' 1'
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
=
! ! ! !

1 1 1 1
( )
1 1 1 1 + + + +
=

2
2
2
d 2
d
d
2 d
1
d
1 1
d
P P P
r
P
t
P P
r
P
k k
t
k t
1 1

=

( )(
( )
)

Likewise, differentiate d
2
P/dt
2
implicitly with respect to time yields

( )
2
2
2
3 4
2
2
3 4 3 4
2 2
2 2
2 3
2
d d d 2
1 1
d d
d
d 3 2
d
d 3 2 3 2 d
d d
9 8
2
P P P
rP
t t k k
t
P P
r P
t k
k
P P P P
r P P r
t k k t
k k
P P
r P
k
k
1
' 1 1'
1 1
1 1
=
! !

1 1 ( )( )
( )
1 1 + +
' 1'
1 1
1 1
=
! !
1 1
( )
1 1
+ +
1 1

=

( ) ( )
=
3 2
2 2
2
2
3
2
3
d
d
9 8
2 1
d 9 8
1 2
d
P P P P
r P
k k
t k
P
t
P P P
r P rP
k k
k
1

( )
1
1

1
( )
(

=

( )
)
( )


Question 4 (Continued)
For maximum value of dP/dt, d
2
P/dt
2
= 0 (i.e. stationary points)

2
2
2
2
d
0
d
2
1 1 0
2
0 or 1 0 or 1 0
or or 0
2

P
t
P P
rP
k k
P P
rP
k
k
P P P k
k
=
1 1

=

( )( )
=
= = =
= =

Substituting P = 0, P = k/2, and P = k into d
3
P/dt
3
for second derivative test gives

For P = 0,
( )
( ) ( )
2
3
2
2
3 2
0
0 0
0
0
8
0
9
d
1 2
d
P
P
r
k k
t k
=
' '
1 1
11 1
1 1
= =
! !

1 1
( )
1 1
1 1
+ +

For P = k/2,
2 2
3
2
3 2
2
2
2
2
2
d 1 9 8
1 2
d
1 9
1
2 2 2 2
16
2 2
4 2 2
k
P
k k P
r
k k
t k
k
r
r
k
k
k
=
' '
1 1
1 ' 1' 1 1
1 11 1
1 11 1
=
! !! !

1 11 1
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 1 + +1 1
1 1 + +
1 1

=

( )( )
=

For P = k,
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( )( )
3
2 2
2
3 2
2 2
d 1 9 8
1 2
d
1 1 2
0
9 8
P k
P
r
k k
k k
t
r
k k
k
k
=
' '' '
1 11 1
1 11 1
=
! !! !
1 11 1
1 11 1 + ++ +
=
=

Based on the second derivative test conducted above, it can be concluded that when the
population of Aedes mosquitoes is half the carrying capacity, a maximum population
growth rate can be obtained.

Therefore, the maximum value of dP/dt is
Max.
2
d d 1
1
d d 2 2
1
4
k
P
P P k k
r rk
t t k
=
1 1' 1'
1 1
1 1
= = =
! !

1 1
( ) ( ) ( )
1 1 + +

Question 5
In order to clearly visualize growth behavior of Aedes mosquitoes, both the effects of (k & P
0
)
and r are taken into considerations.
(a) Effects of carrying capacity, k, and initial population, P
0
(r = 1)
Case I: P
0
< k (Assuming P
0
= 2 and k = 10)
Thus, the population is given by
( )
( )( )
( )
( ) 1
10 2
2 10 2 e
20
2 8e
t t
P t

= =

Case II: P
0
> k (Assuming P
0
= 20 and k = 10)
Likewise, the population of the Aedes mosquitoes is
( )
( )( )
( )
( ) 1
10 20
20 10 2
20
2 e
0 e
t t
P t

= =

Based on the two functions derived above, two graphs are plotted by the aid of Microsoft
Excel with time interval of 100 days as shown in Figure 1 and 2 below. Both the plots of
population versus time have led to a good agreement with the calculations in Question 2
above. As illustrated in Figure 1 below, if the population is less than the carrying capacity,
the population increases which also implies that the environment has the capability to
support a denser population. On the contrary, a great reduction or declination in
population growth rate will existed if the population exceeds the carrying capacity.



Figure 1: Plot of Population vs. Time (P < k)

Figure 2: Plot of Population vs. Time (P > k)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 20 40 60 80 100
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
,

P

Time, t (Days)
Population, P vs. Time, t (P < k)
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
0 20 40 60 80 100
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
,

P

Time, t (Days)
Population, P vs. Time, t (P > k)

(b) Effect of the positive constant, r (P
0
= 2 and k = 10)
By assuming r = 2, 3 and 4, the populations are:
( )
( )
( )
2
3
4
20
2 8e
20
2;
3;
2 8
4
e
;
e
20
2 8
t
t
t
r P t
r P t
r P t
= =
= =
=
=

Three graphs with different values of r are plotted by using Microsoft Excel with time
interval of 10 days. As shown in Figure 3 below, r = 4 results in highest rate of
population growth as compared to the others.

Figure 3: Plot of Population, P vs. Time, t with Variable r

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 2 4 6 8 10
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
,

P

Time, t (Days)
Plot of Population, P vs. Time, t
r = 2
r = 3
r = 4

STPM Mathematics (T) Assignment B: Mathematical Modelling (2013)

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STPM Mathematics (T) Assignment B: Mathematical Modelling (2013)

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ASSIGNMENT B

and simplifying gives

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