1

2004 37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 37

........................................................................... 7
................................................................................................... 8
FIBO ............................................................................................................................... 10
TeleTRADE D.J. ............................................................................................................. 15
.............................................................................................................. 18
. ForexTrader. ................................................................... 20
GBPUSD 4.10.2004 ................................................................................................................... 25
AUDUSD - Silver-channel ......................................................... 32
.................................................................................. 36
USD/JPY: " a" ......................................................................................... 38
: , ! .......................................................................... 41
...................................................................................... 44
........................................................................................................... 46
: ................................................................................... 50
......................................................................................................... 53
.......................................................................................................................................... 55
....................................................... 56
............................................................................................................................................ 60
......................................................................................................... 63

FOREX MAGAZINE

www.alpari-idc.ru
(095) 29-111-29

.
"FOREX MAGAZINE" .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 37

-

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FSA. , . ,
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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

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2004 37

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 37

. ( 99%), " " ,

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8 ,
.
, ,
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- , - . : "Trend is your
friend". , -!
,
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EXPO 2004", "
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22-23. .
"".
!

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

VIAC.RU " "

2004 37

VIAC.RU " "

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50/50.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 37

FOREX Review

(msk)

04.10.2004

13

M/M

-0.20%

0.20%

EC , , .
. , .
04.10.2004

13

Y/Y

04.10.2004

18

. M/M

05.10.2004

11.55

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05.10.2004

11.55

05.10.2004

12

PMI .

05.10.2004

12.3

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54.5

54.5

56.9

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9.00%

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.
05.10.2004

13

. .
05.10.2004

18

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05.10.2004

18.3

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-0.30%

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06.10.2004

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0.10%

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06.10.2004

14

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3.00%

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07.10.2004

15

07.10.2004

15.45

07.10.2004

16.3

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4.75%

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08.10.2004

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08.10.2004

18

M/M

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www.forexreview.ru
7

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, .
,
. , .
,
,
.
,
. ,

, 3.3%.

.
,
.
, . - ,
, , ,
. - , - ,
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- / /.
. -

2004 37

, , .
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.
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7.
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. /.
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,
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.
4 8
. , Tankan,
. , ,
7,
2-3 ,
. ,
20%.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 37

,
. ,
, , . , , ,
.

,
(7 ), 8 .
.
, - .
,
. / 1.2450
/, 1.2550. ,
.

ForexMagazine
http://www.fxclub.org

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 37

FIBO

FOREX FIBO



.
87.34.

" " .
"" - . 9.4%,
0.8%,

1.1% 0.4%.

-5.5% -0.05%.

, 2.8% 3.3%.
, PMI, 61.3 57.3 .
, ,
.
58.5 59.0 ,
PMI, . ,
,
, 88.65.
,
, .
, 50 . " "
, -

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(core PCE
deflator)
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. ,
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.
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.

Merck ,
.
,
,
. , ,
", ,
.

. ,
,
,
. 87.65, , 89.50. ,
,
, , , .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

2004 37

, , ,
,
" " .

88.50, 88.80, 89.30.
87.00, 86.50 86.00.
.
, , EUR/
USD 160 1.2444.
1.2418, ,
1.2350. ,
EUR/USD,

1.2600. ,
, , " "
, ,

.

EZ, -14 -13 , . , - 0.48 100.7 0.51 100.9
. , Ifo 95.2 95.3 . ,
, .
, ,
50 ,
,
10-12% . : . .

11

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

22%, 30%
.
, EZ
, .
,
EZ . , ,
. , .
EZ.
, 9.9% 9.8% . ,
, EZ.
53.1 53.9 .
, 40 ,
50
. 1.1%
0.9%
.
,

" " ,
. - .
.
EUR/USD
. , -

12

2004 37

EZ ,
. ,
,
2.0%. . 1.2465
1.2600, 1.2520. EZ
, EUR/
USD 1.2350
1.2220.
EUR/USD.
.
, GBP/USD

1.8030.
.
.
,
, .
,
.
,

GBP/USD. ,
.

64,032 70,756 ,
16.6. . 18.1 .
.
Nationwide , . 0.2%
17.8%
. 18.9%. , -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

, .
.
0.6% 1.1%.
0.9%
,

3.7% 3.8%.
. ,
Gfx.
-7 -5 .
,
,
, 9% , , . , , 2% .
2003 .

II 6.4 . 5.5 . I .
5.4 . .
- 6 .
7.5 .
14.5 . .

52.2 52.8 . 53.7. , .
, , , -

13

2004 37

, " "
. , . , .
.
GBP/USD 1.8140, , 1.8000. -
.
,
. , ,
, . - ,
Halifax.
GBP/
USD.
GBP/USD
1.7800. GBP/USD 1.7530, .
GBP/USD 1.8240.
. USD/JPY 111.72, . USD/JPY
, .
0.4%
0.1% , 0.3% . 48 .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

50 .
" "
, . .
, , 3.3%,
. ,
,
. ,
1.8% ,
.
0.7% .
0.3%
, , ,
. 10.5% ,
.
8.2%
, .

, , - 29.4 . .
EZ ,

, PMI manufacturing
53.6 54.9 .
Tankan .

1991 +26 +22 , -

14

2004 37

+23.
4,8% 4,9% .
.
USD/JPY 109.82.
Tankan , , . ,
, , ,
, 0.1% . 0.2%,
. ,
, ,
0.2% .
, , .

. USD/JPY
110.52 7
.
"
", ,
, USD/JPY . ,
. USD/JPY
109.60 108.70, .
, ,
USD/JPY
111.00
112.50.

FIBO
Forex Magazine
http://www.fibo-forex.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 37

TeleTRADE D.J.

TeleTRADE D.J.
, .

96,8 2004 98,7 . , ,

97,6 97,3 .

, .
EUR/USD GBP/USD
50-60 .
IFO, EUR/USD, .
95.2 95.3 ,
95.1.

EUR/JPY, USD/JPY GBP/JPY. USD/JPY 18.08 111.45, .

.

, TeleTRADE . .

$50, ,
. , , WTI ,
-
.


, , , .
EUR/USD 20-25 . -

. 7
1.2250-1.2350,
.
, , .

USD/JPY 111.75,
111.40. EUR/
USD 1.2350,
1.2300.
GBP/USD 23.08
1.8165,
.

GBP/USD. , 3.6% 3.7%, .

, "" , .
Conference Board,

,

, II 3.3%, 2.8%, .

15

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 TeleTRADE D.J.

,
110.70. ,
, 10
.
. , /
1.2350
1.2400. ,
, G7.
EUR/USD 1.2440.
GBP/USD 1.8125.
USD/JPY 109.80.

2004 37

,
,
. CPI 0.1%. -0.2%. 60- . 0.2%
.
, CPI
,
. , ,
,
.
.
. PMI 53.1 52.2.
1.2400,
.

, , .
369 350 . 0.0%, +0.1%.

GBP/USD
1.81, 1.7950.

,
61.3. .

400 , 17 1.2465 .

. TANKAN
III , ,
. +26
+22 . 23 22.
,
2004 4,8% 4,9% .

16

04.10-08.10

GBP/USD ,
. -
. , " ".

. -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 37

TeleTRADE D.J.

, , Non-Farm Payrolls 144 .,

. 155 .
.
EUR/USD
.
GBP/USD ,
, , ,
.

,
-
TeleTRADE D.J. Trust Com & Securities Ltd.

E-mail: analitics@trust-com.ru

17

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 37

.
$.

: "
- ,
", ,
- " - ".
,
, . - ,
, .
, .
"". , nord-nord .
, 100 . , ,
,

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1,2350 1,2460 2 3 .

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G7
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.
,

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, .
,
:
.
,
. (Durable goods
orders) -0. 5% ( 0.4%, +1.6%
+1.8%). . .
-
50 $ .

18

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 37

,
: , , .
, ,
,
,
, www.mabico.ru.
,
"".
, .
www. Mabico.ru
.
Forex Magazine
http://www.mabico.ru
Brent
IPE 20 $45,33
.
: ,
,
. ,

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.

.
, , 94,2 95,9
. ,
,
95,8.
95,7. , . ,
(Institute for Supply
Management, ISM) 58,5
59,0 .
,
58,0.

19

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 37

. ForexTrader.

-
-
(www.forextrader.ru), ,

. -
, Forex.

FOREX
04-08.10.2004

FOREX, MSK

13:00-15:00
18:00-20:30

11:30-15:00
18:00-22:00

12:30-13:00
14:00-19:30

03:50-10:00
10:45-15:00
16:30-22:30

09:00-15:00
16:30-21:30

" ". . 1,5 3- GBP, . FOREX . - BoE ,

. .

- ,
FOREXTRADER http://www.forextrader.ru/ .

20

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 37

ForexTrader

EUR
:
13-00 PPI Retail
Sales
( )
. , 18
,
, .
11-45 .
18-00 ISM services index , , , .
12-30
+ BoE .
. 14

,
, .
15-00-16-30 - BoE - . , 16-30,
,
.

, .
4 (1,1257-1,0300), 5 .
.
5 - - 1.3925-1.5600.

, , 16-30 , ,
. ? ? ,
-.
- .
.

3 1,2622-1,3000, 4-
1,2276-1,1338 ( ).

21

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

2004 37

CHF

03.10.04
.

4 1.3260-1.5000. CHF
0,5077 - 5 , - .

4 , 5- 1,20001,1595.

03.10.04 CHF
.

22

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 37

ForexTrader

GBP

4 1.7175-1.5850.

: 1,71751,6578, - 5 -
2,0053-2,1636.

JPY

03.10.04
.

23

,
3 96,00,
4 114-45-118,40
- .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

JPY .

2004 37

JPY
03.10.04
,
FOREXTRADER.RU
E-mail: trader_karlo@mail.ru

24

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 37

GBPUSD 4.10.2004

04 2004

58 , -0,32%
.
:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

:
:
:
:
:
:

1,8140 / 1,8190
1,8085
1,8089 / 1,8131
1,8173 / 1,8189
1,8209
1,8096 / 1,8166

1,7920 / 1,7880
1,7907/1,7873
1,7908 / 1,7839
1,7900 / 1,7880
1,7910 / 1,7883
1,7866

: 1,8090 / 1,8135 / 1,8170 / 1,8190 ( )

: 1,7906 / 1,7879 /
7 2004
.
.

GBPUSD

25

Close

Close

24.09.2004

01.10.2004

1.8039

1.7981

()

-58

(%)

-0,32

Close
31.12.2003

1.7834

()

(%)

+147

+0,82

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 GBPUSD 4.10.2004

2004 37

()

, :
I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
- [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [a], [b], [c]
(1), (2), (3), (4), (5), (a), (b), (c)
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c,

1,2,3,4,5,a,b,
1.8341,
() 2. , . ,
, . , 1,8545
.
, ,
.
,
.
, .
-
, .

26

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 GBPUSD 4.10.2004

2004 37

1.7637-1.8325 (688 )
weekly Res: 1.8096 / 1.8183 / 1.8237 / 1.8325
weekly Sup: 1.7866 / 1.7779 / 1.7725 / 1.7637
weekly NZ 1.7954-1.8008 (54)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.7796-1.8166 (370 )
intraday Res:...1.8043 / 1.8090 / 1.8119 / 1.8166
intraday Sup: ..1.7919 / 1.7872 / 1.7843 / 1.7796
day NZ 1.7966-1.7996 (30 )
NZ,
.
, .
, .
3 .
1
.
1 24 .

27

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 GBPUSD 4.10.2004

2004 37

, - ,
11, 21,41, 12, 14.
1. 11 17.08.04 1,8460.
2. 12 08.06.04 1,8474.
3. 18 15.05.03 1,7480.
4. 12 17.08.04 1,8460.
5. 12 20.07.04 1,8769.
6. 14 01.07.04 1,8010.
7. 18 19.02.04 1,9139.
8. 12 04.09.03 1,5609.
(4) ,
. , , ,

.
, , ,
12 08.09.04.

28

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 GBPUSD 4.10.2004

2004 37

MA

,
.
( ) :
1. UP
LB 1.8020 U3 1.8200 (+180 ).
2. DOWN
LB 1.8020 D3 1.7839 (-181 )
3. U3 1,8200 U4 1,8312 (112 )
4. D3 1,7713 D4 1,7602 (111 )
.
, U1 1.8137 D2 1.7927, 210
. , D2,
, LB 1,8020,
U1 D1.
, , ,
. ? ,
D2, 1,7910.

29

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 GBPUSD 4.10.2004

2004 37

#Fr2 1.7708. - R1 R2
. - () .
R1
R2
R3
R4
F3 (0.382) = 1.7760 () F3 (0.382) = 1.7843 ()
F3 (0.382) = 1.7949()
F3 (0.382) = 1.7995 ()
F5 (0.618) = 1.7793 () F5 (0.618) = 1.7927 ()
F5 (0.618) = 1.8099()
F5 (0.618) = 1.8173
R4 - #Fr2, R1 R2 c #Fs =
1.8167, - :
R1
R2
F3 (0.382) = 1.7999 () F3 (0.382) = 1.7987()
F5 (0.618) = 1.7900
F5 (0.618) = 1.7880
, :
R2 = 1.7708, #Fs* = 1.8031, R1 = 1.7740
:
XOP = 1.8263
A = 1.7740,
B = 1.8159 , C = 1.7927
: COP = 1.8169, XOP = 1.8186
, 1,8030,
1,8090,

30

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 GBPUSD 4.10.2004

2004 37

Time Ellipse

1,7920,
(1), 1,7927,
. , (2) ,
, . ,
1,7900 ( ).

:
E-mail: a_vlad@viac.ru
www.viac.ru

31

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

32

2004 37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

33

2004 37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

34

2004 37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

2004 37

- ( ):
Silver-channel
!
Silver-channel 4-
AlexSilver
Silver-channel Daily
www.viac.ru
Silver-channel Weekly
CFD

-
Silver-channel , .
. .

35

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 37

, , .
, 50 .
, .
, , , , .

.
412.00 . 418.00-419.00, 200% , .
, , 428.00.

36

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 37

.
. , . 415.00-416.00 412.00
428.00.

!
:
E-mail: eduard@viac.ru
www.viac.ru

37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY: " a"

2004 37

USD/JPY: " a"

, . ,
Crude Light, /
. ,
34, 35, 36 FOREX MAGAZINE.

?
.
, ,
, .. ,
. , "" , , . , , , , , . "" USD/JPY, .
.
, - "" . .
(. ), ,
, 2002 , .
, , - , ..
.
, - . " ,
".

, .. , (
),
- "",
" ".

38

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY: " a"

2004 37

: - 115.00 120-121.00, 107.00 104.00-103.00, , 10 ...

, , . D.
, . o , .
, , , "" ?..

,
.
, "" . ,
, , .
, ,
.
, - . "" .
. .

,
USD/JPY

:
1.
- ,
.
2. -
.
3. ,
"" 109-107.00

USD/JPY

39

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY: " a"

2004 37

USD/JPY:
,
, ( , )

109.60-80 111.70-90.
.

- 111.90
110.40-60. 111.90-112.30 115.00.
112.30 (. ).
109.60-80
108.30-50
107.00 . 109.00, 109.60-80.
- , .
.

:
110.65
111.75, 90
2002
115.00
120.00-121.00 - 2003

:
109.60-80
109.00 -
107.00
103.00-105.00 -
FOREX MAGAZINE
:
VIAC.ru
vmn@viac.ru
http://www.viac.ru

40

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 : , !

2004 37

: , !
" "
" " - "Forex Magazine"
www.fxmoney.ru
" "

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. - "".

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 : , !

, - , - . ,

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, . ,
,
, . , .
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. - , -
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42

2004 37

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