1

2004 38

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

........................................................................... 4
................................................................................................... 5
FIBO ................................................................................................................................. 6
TeleTRADE D.J. ............................................................................................................. 10
. Bico ................................................................................. 12
. ForexTrader. .............................................................................. 14
GBPUSD 11.10.2004 ................................................................................................................. 19
AUDUSD - Silver-channel ......................................................... 26
.................................................................................. 30
USD/JPY: - ...................................... 33
.................................................................................................. 37
............................................................................................................................... 40
............................................................................................................................................. 43
......................................................................................................................... 46
................................................................................................................................ 52
- ....................................................................................................................... 54
: ............................................................................................ 56
................................................................................................................................. 57
......................................................................................................... 61

FOREX MAGAZINE

www.alpari-idc.ru
(095) 29-111-29

.
"FOREX MAGAZINE" .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 VIAC.RU?

2004 38

VIAC.RU?
- 13 VIAC.RU . , . , http://forum.viac.ru/,
http://old.viac.ru/. , 1 , .
VIAC.RU?
-, , -, , ,
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, , .. ..
, , .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

FOREX Review

(msk)

11.10.2004

-5.1 .

-5.0 .

1.30%

1.40%

0.30%

0.30%

.
11.10.2004

12.3

.
11/10/2004

.
12.10.2004

12.3

HICP Y/Y

.
13.10.2004

8.3

. (.) M/M

. , .
13.10.2004

12.3

M/M

-6,100

-3,000

. , .
13.10.2004

12.3

5.00%

5.00%

. , .
14.10.2004

12

ECB

0.50%

0.50%

.
14.10.2004

13

(.) Q/Q

2 .

. , .
14.10.2004

13

(.) Y/Y

2 .

2.00%

2.00%

. , .
14.10.2004

16.3

-50.1 .

-52.0 .

335,000

345,000

-0.1 %

+0.1 %

.
14/10/2004

16.30

4-9.10

.
15/10/2004

16.30

PPI M/M

. .
15/10/2004

16.30

PPI . . M/M

-0.1 %

+0.1 %

-0.3 %

+0.5 %

. . .
15/10/2004

16.30

M/M

, , .
. ,
.
15/10/2004

16.30

M/M

+0.2 %

+0.3 %

28.3

25.0

+0.1 %

+0.4 %

. .
15/10/2004

16.30

.
15/10/2004

17.15

M/M

, .
, , .
15/10/2004

17.15

77.3 %

77.5 %

. , .
15/10/2004

17.45

Michigan Sentiment (.)

33.8

33.7

www.forexreview.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, ,

. ,
,
- .
,

. , ,
. ,
,

, .
.
,
, .
, 100150 . ,
,
.

.
. ,
, 50 . , ISM,
56.7, .
. .
, , , , .
: 0.3%
0.8%, .

2004 38

, ,

/ .
+96 . ( +148 .)

,
.

,
. ,
. ,

,
. ,
. ,
. ,

.
,
. ,
. , - ,
, PPI (11.10.04), CPI (12.10.04)
(13.10.04). /
1.7780-1.7800.
1.7500.

ZEW (12.10.04),
(14.10.04). /,

(13.10.04).

ForexMagazine
http://www.fxclub.org

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

FIBO

FOREX FIBO

.
-
88.40.

,
,
. ,
0.1%, 1.3%.
56.7 58.2
. 54.6 52.5 ,
,
.

, 53
, . , - .
, ,
, ,
, ,

.
" "
,
, , .

.
-

96,000,
145,000.
4,000.
18,000, 109,000 (
ISM).
,
- 0.9%,
1.2%.
.
,
.
,
,
, .
,
.

. , , ,
.
.
2.0% . ,
, 87.00
86.50. ,
, , , .
88.00. 89.00 ,

.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

2004 38

. 1.2300
EUR/USD
, 1.2270.
, EZ - .

. ,

. 27,000 ,
10.7% 10.6% . 1.5%, 2.8%
.
1.0% .
0.9 . 1.7 . .
11.1 .
13.6 . ,
1.4%, 0.1%.
.
EZ
53.3 54.8 , 54.4. EZ 9.0%.
EZ
105.9 105.8 . .
EZ , .
2.0%. ,
- 53
,
,
EZ
.
, 1.2410. -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

. . - ,
, EZ.
. ,
, 55 , 60,
.
EZ

.
, .
EUR/USD
1.2465, 1.2580/00. , 2001 ,

.
,
1.2300, 1.2220 1.2140. EUR/USD 1.2000.
. 1.1946 50 ,
. 1.7740 GBP/USD 4.75% ,
,
, Halifax.

.

,
PMI 56.8 55.8 . Halifax
1.4%
. 20.5%
21.9% . , -

2004 38

, ,
90-.
.

, .
PMI ,
60% , 54.7 56.9
. 0.8%. , .
,

.

.

,
GBP/USD. ,
.
5.0%
,
GBP/USD 1.8200.

, . , GBP/USD

1.8090 1.8140.
GBP/USD ,
1.7820, 1.7740 1.7600.
.
USD/JPY

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

2004 38

111.70, 112.40.
. 111.15 109.50.
,
, , .
, (
) . ,

, USD/JPY
109.80.

USD/JPY. ,
108.70,
107.10.

.


.
110.20 USD/JPY 109.30. , , USD/JPY, .
USD/JPY ,

- , , -. -,
,
. USD/JPY .
USD/JPY 111.00 , ,
110.20 110.70.

12.6%
8.6% , ,
. 18.2% , 5.8%.

FIBO
Forex Magazine
http://www.fibo-forex.ru

72.2 60.0 .
50 12 ,
3-6 .
3.1%
11.3%. ,
, 5.6%.
,
.

0.6% , , ,
.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

TeleTRADE D.J.

TeleTRADE D.J.
, .

.
150 ., , ,
,


.
, . ,
,
1.2460, , / .
.
, ,
. 0.4%
3.1% . , (-0.4% 1.1% 2003
)
. .

,
.
1.2330.

10

, ,
300 .

1.7815.

, ,

, 60 .

/.
.
0.8% 0.1% .
,
, , .
1.7815
1.7770. ,
.
/
, .

, 1.5% 2.8%.
EUR/USD
1.2250, 1.2300.

. 2%

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 TeleTRADE D.J.

. ,
,

. -
1 , ,
. 2003 .
-

4,75 .
, . . ,

,
,
.

.

.
EUR/USD
1.2300, GBP/USD - 1.7815, USD/JPY - 111.40.

USD/JPY, .

,
3.1% 5.4% .
$53 , $52 .
.

2004 38

".
nonfarm
payrolls
.
. Nonfarm Payrolls 96 .
, 85 . 144
. .
30
,
EUR/USD .
11.10-15.10
1.2465 .
1.2465
, 1.2250 .
GBP/USD ,
, " ".

, . , ,
.
,
.
,

, ,
" -

11

-
TeleTRADE D.J. Trust Com & Securities Ltd.

E-mail: analitics@trust-com.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

. Bico

.
$.

-
.
,
, .
.



, - .


.
.

,
,
.
,
,
.
,
.
, .
, ,
, , .

12

-.
.

,
.
- .
, -
,
.
,
.

.
,
.


(ISM services index) 56.7), 60.0,
58.2). .
,
, , 52.5 54.6, ,
:
+2,7% 2003.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 . Bico

2004 38

.
. ,
1,2350 2 3 1,2465.
96,
150. 5,4%. ,
10 . ,
, . .
, ,
,
,
, www.mabico.ru.
,
"".
, .
www. Mabico.ru
.
Forex Magazine
http://www.mabico.ru

13

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

. ForexTrader.

-
-
(www.forextrader.ru), ,

. -
, Forex.

FOREX
11-15.10.2004

FOREX, MSK

12:30-19:00

10:00-15:00
16:55-21:00

03:30-10:30
10:45-15:30

11:30-15:00
16:30-22:30

09:00-15:00

,
16:30-21:30
. , - 1,3 .
. ,
, .
, , , . , -,
, .
, .
- ,
FOREXTRADER http://www.forextrader.ru/ .

14

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

ForexTrader

EUR
:
,

. 1230 .
10-00 13-00
.
12-30.
10 -
. 12-30
- .
11-30 -13-00 .
16-30.
, ,
.

,
16-30. 22 ,
,
, , -
, , , . - " " FOREX.

, .
4 (1,1225-1,0310), 5 .
.
5 - 1.3953-1.5620.

3 1,2620-1,3000, 4-
1,2210 ( ),
5 1,3300.

15

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

2004 38

CHF

10.10.04.

4 1.3295-1.5000. CHF
0,5086 - 5 , - .
3
1,2450-1,2335 .

CHF 10.10.04.

16

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

ForexTrader

GBP

4 1.7175-1.5850.

: 1,71751,6578, - 5 -
2,0053-2,1636.

JPY

GBP 10.10.04.

17

,
3 96,00,
4 114-45-118,40
- .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

JPY .

2004 38

JPY
10.10.04
,
FOREXTRADER.RU
E-mail: trader_karlo@mail.ru

18

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

GBPUSD 11.10.2004

11 2004

,
. ,
, ,
, .
,
,
,
, .
, , , ,
,
.
, ,
, ,
. .. .
:

1
2
3
4
5
6

UP :
DOWN:

1
1.8024
1.7979
1.8020
1,8020
1.8004
1.7985

2
1.8196
1.8049
1.8055
1.8164
1.8022

3
1.8475
1.8072
1.8173
-

1
1.7740
1,7817
1.7900
1.7760
1.7745
1.7880

2
1.7708
1.7794
1.7880
1.7740
1.7827

3
1.7810
1.7708
-

1.7982 / 1.8022 / 1.8168

1.7880 / 1.7814 / 1.7742

GBPUSD

19

Close

Close

24.09.2004

01.10.2004

1.8039

1.7981

()

-48

(%)

-0,27

Close
31.12.2003

1.7834

()

(%)

+99

+0,56

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 GBPUSD 11.10.2004

2004 38

()

. , .
, ,
. , ,
() () 1,7745,
4,75%, .
, 1,7900.
, .
1,7745, , ,
1,8545. ,
:
1. , 6-7.10.04, ,
.
2. .
3. .
, , .
0.618 = 1,8024 / 1.000 = 1,8196 / 1.618 = 1,8475.
, = 1.7745 () =
1,7708.

20

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 GBPUSD 11.10.2004

2004 38

1.7586-1.8280 (694 )
weekly Res: 1.8049 / 1.8137 / 1.8191 / 1.8280
weekly Sup: 1.7817 / 1.7729 / 1.7675 / 1.7586
weekly NZ 1.7906-1.7960 (54)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.7794-1.8072 (278 )
intraday Res:...1.7979 / 1.8015 / 1.8037 / 1.8072
intraday Sup: ..1.7887 / 1.7851 / 1.7829 / 1.7794
day NZ 1.7922-1.7944 (22 )
NZ,
.
, .
, .
3 .
1
.
1 24 .

21

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 GBPUSD 11.10.2004

2004 38

, - ,
11, 21,41, 12, 14.
1. 11 17.08.04 1,8460.
2. 12 08.06.04 1,8474.
3. 18 15.05.03 1,7480.
4. 12 17.08.04 1,8460.
5. 12 20.07.04 1,8769.
6. 14 01.07.04 1,8010.
7. 18 19.02.04 1,9139.
8. 12 04.09.03 1,5609.
, , ..
, .
(3)
12 08.09.04 .
, 1, 8020,
(4). .
, = 1,8196
(5) 1,8475 (6), .

22

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 GBPUSD 11.10.2004

2004 38

MA

,
.
( ) :
1. UP
LB 1.7883 U3 1.8055 (+180 ).
2. DOWN
LB 1.7883 D3 1.7698 (-181 )
3. U3 1,8055 U4 1,8166 (112 )
4. D3 1,7698 D4 1,7587 (111 )
D3 1.7812.
, 1,7745.
D1, ,
. ,
U3 1.8020, .
. ( ).
1. U1 1.7920 / 1.7900
2. 13:00 . , LB 1.7880.
3. 11.10.04 1,8055, , .
, .

23

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 GBPUSD 11.10.2004

2004 38

#Fr2 1.7708. - R1,R2 R3

. - ()
.
R1
R2
R3
R4
F3 (0.382) = 1.7760 () F3 (0.382) = 1.7843 ()
F3 (0.382) = 1.7949()
F3 (0.382) = 1.7995 ()
F5 (0.618) = 1.7793 () F5 (0.618) = 1.7927 ()
F5 (0.618) = 1.8099()
F5 (0.618) = 1.8173
R4 - #Fr2, R1 R2 c #Fs =
1.8167, - :
R1
R2
F3 (0.382) = 1.7999 () F3 (0.382) = 1.7987()
F5 (0.618) = 1.7900 () F5 (0.618) = 1.7880 ()
, :
R2 = 1.7708, #Fs* = 1.8031, R1 = 1.7740
:
XOP = 1.8263
A = 1.7740,
B = 1.8167 , C = 1.7745
: COP = 1.8004, P = 1.8164, XOP = 1.8423

24

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 GBPUSD 11.10.2004

2004 38

Time Ellipse

, ,
, . ,
, ,
.
(1) 1,8022. 1.7985 / 1.8022,
1.7880 / 1.7827.

:
E-mail: a_vlad@viac.ru
www.viac.ru

25

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

26

2004 38

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

27

2004 38

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

28

2004 38

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

2004 38

- ( ):
Silver-channel
!
Silver-channel 4-
AlexSilver
Silver-channel Daily
www.viac.ru
Silver-channel Weekly
CFD

-
Silver-channel , .
. .

29

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 38

, ,
412.00. . , $420.00 .
, .
, , .
, . ,
, .
.
, .
161.8% , . 430.00-431.00 , , . ,
, . 427.00-428.00.

30

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 38

.
428.00 261.8% ( ), ,
417.00-418.00, . .

31

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 38

.
, , MACD . , .
, , - ,
. , , , 200%
( ). , , , .

!
:
E-mail: eduard@viac.ru
www.viac.ru

32

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

USD/JPY: -

USD/JPY: -
, , . ,
USD/JPY. , 34-37 FOREX MAGAZINE.

. ?
.
, ..
, . ,
, .. ( ) .
. , "" ,
, . (, ) - "" .

. . ,
, ,
.
USD/JPY.
"" (. 37),
.
, . , ,
. , - .
, .
:
1) ;
2) "" , - - 108.75.
. " ". .. ( 108.75),
109.60 - .
(. 34). ,
, , . . ""
(. 34):
,
. - , ""
.

33

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

USD/JPY: -

, , USD/JPY . ,
, : - 107.00 104.00-103.00,
, - 115.00 120-121.00.

: - , ,
. - " ".
, , (, ).
, USD/JPY - ( ) 100 .
. - 200 .
"-".
, . , -
. ,
( ). , . " ", , .

34

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY: -

2004 38

, ( ) :
1) , ,
( : , , ),
2) , ,
( : , , PPI).

USD/JPY:
. , 109.6050 -- ( ), . ,
. 108.75.
, . 110.00-40,
. - - 111.45-50, .
108.75
( ),
, .
108.75 107.00.
- ,
. .

:
110.00-40
108.75-109.30

111.50-75 108.20

, 2002
,
115.00
107.00
120.00-121.00 - 2003
103.00-105.00 -

35

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY: -

2004 38

FOREX MAGAZINE
:
VIAC.ru
vmn@viac.ru
http://www.viac.ru

36

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

.
. 8 475000 . , , "",
, .
, 45 90 .
25% ,
28%.

2004 38

. , "".
EIA , 1 , , , 1.1 . 274.00 . .. 1.2 .
, -.
, $51.2 . , 6.2% ,
.
, ,
"" $52.00 .

.


,
.
1.8-2.2 .
, , $51.00 $51.09
. ,

EIA

37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

$53.00.
Royal Dutch Shell Group . Shell 1 . 2.3 .
. - , . .
,
, -.
Royal Dutch Shell Group
,
$53.00. , "" . , . , . .
.
,
,
. , , .
, .
, NYMEX
WTI $53.40
$53.31.

.
LOOP , . , ,
EIA . , 1 89%,
95.7%. .
,

38

2004 38

. 20.55
. , 20.59
. .

WTI .
,
. ,
. ,
,
. ,
,
, $50 .
MACD.

. - , ,
.
,
(SSS)
.
, .
,
,

.
10 ,
1,5 .
, $53
.
OPEC,
. , , . OPEC
690000 30.15 . .
OPEC -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 38

1979 . 2.26
. , . ,
.

$54 . , . ,
, . ,
.

E-mail: bauer@viac.ru

Forex Magazine
www.alpari-idc.ru

39

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

" " - .

" , , "
", !
, . 9 " - .

" " -
.

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.

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40

www.hardrightedge.com

" , . ,
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1 . . "
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29.95 $. , .
,
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- . - .
,
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,
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, .

, . -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, "".
, ",
",
. ,
, ,
. , , , , -
. , , , ,
, .
, , ,
, , .
, .
,
75% , - .
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41

2004 38

.
100 ,
.
, , 19 , .
.
, ,
, . .
, ,
- , .
, , , ,
, . , -
2%- .
, , , .

1%.
1% .
,
- 25.000 $:
,
XYZ, , , 15 3/16. 14 1/2. ,
- 14 7/16, 3/4
. 25.000 $ , 250 $ .
, , . ,
333 .
, 300. , .

:

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 38

" ,
,
. . ,
. ". -

" ,
". -

" .
".
-

" 1%
. 1%,
.
". - .
, ,
.
,
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Forex Magazine
www.hardrightedge.com

42

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 38

www.marketmavens.com
,
" ,
".

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

- , . ,
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" -
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, ".

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2004 38

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