1

2004 40

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

........................................................................... 5
................................................................................................... 6
FIBO ................................................................................................................................. 7
TeleTRADE D.J. ............................................................................................................. 12
. 13-. Mabico. ............................ 14
? ForexTrader. ................................................................... 16
AUDUSD - Silver-channel ......................................................... 21
USD/JPY: ?......................................................................................... 23
" " - ................................................................................. 27
. , . ................................... 30
: ................................................................................................. 33
: .............................................................................................. 38
.................................................................................................... 41
..................................................................................................... 44
................................................................................................................ 45
.................................................................................................................................... 48
......................................................................................................... 51

FOREX MAGAZINE

www.alpari-idc.ru
(095) 29-111-29

.
"FOREX MAGAZINE" .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 "" !

2004 40

"" !
"" : "" !
"" ,
-.

26- 27 "" " EXPO 2004", "--" . . , - 22-23.

, "", MetaTrader, .
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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

"" !

:
"-EXPO 2004", 27 -, ( )
"". (. , . , .2) : (095) 250-95-00, 250-95-05.

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"" I " "
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: (095) 727-17-68

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

FOREX Review

(msk)

25.10.2004

12

- IFO

95.2

94.5

. , .
25.10.2004

18

26.10.2004

18

6.54 .

6.50 .

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29.10.2004

13

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29.10.2004

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www.forexreview.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

, , ,
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,
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.
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ForexMagazine
http://www.fxclub.org

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

FIBO

FOREX FIBO



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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

2004 40

. ,
,
.
87.00 . 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 90.07 85.88 87.30,
86.50, 87.00.
. 1.2465 ,
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.
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EZ
. , ,
EZ. EZ

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

.
,
, . EZ 0.6%
, .

1.8%
1.5%, . 2.9% 11.0% .
2.1%,
4.9%. , 105.6, 5 . (UNICE) ,
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.
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2004 40

, .
Ifo , ,
ZEW, . , , " ".
, "",
,
.

2.0%.
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.
EUR/USD
1.2530/40, 1.2465, 1.2340.
.
1.8040, GBP/USD
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RICS, , , , , -30 -12 . .
, - 4.75%,
. .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

25.4 , 26.5
25.9 2003 ,
.
,
, , ,
.
0.7%
1.0%
6.9%
. 0.2%.
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,
.
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.
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GBP/USD 1.8200 1.8040.

GBP/USD,

10

2004 40

.
GBP/USD
1.8470.
. , , ,
.
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107.18.

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.
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. , , 35.9%,
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2.5%.
,
, .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

2004 40

,

,
10.6%.
5.5% ( ),
0.2%.

.

,
,
.

,
205.6 . .

, USD/JPY.
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, . , ,
, 0.4%
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.

FIBO
Forex Magazine
http://www.fibo-forex.ru

,
,
.

, ,
. USD/JPY 105

.
. USD/JPY 107.00
, ,

11

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 TeleTRADE D.J.

2004 40

TeleTRADE D.J.

.

.

.
, , - , ,
,
.

. (core CPI)
, .
.

III . 0.4% II 3.0% III

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III .
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jobless claims (-25 ) ( 28.5
13.4).

USD/JPY
/ ""
. 107.00 .

12

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

TeleTRADE D.J.

109.20. 200 , - 107.00.
25.10-29.10
1.2640
.
1.2770.

. 107.00 105.00, .
GBP/USD ,
, .
III .
,
-
TeleTRADE D.J. Trust Com & Securities Ltd.

E-mail: analitics@trust-com.ru

13

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 . 13-. Mabico.

2004 40

. 13-.
Mabico.
13 , ,
-
, . 500
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.
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94,0. -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 . 13-. Mabico.

2004 40

, , 103,7 99,6 .

,
"".
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.

www. Mabico.ru

Forex Magazine

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.
.
, .
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,
,
, www.mabico.ru.

15

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

? ForexTrader.

?
-
-
(www.forextrader.ru), ,

. -
, Forex.

FOREX
25-29.10.2004

FOREX, MSK

10:00-15:30
18:00-22:00

10:30-15:00
18:00-22:30

16:30-22:30

03:30-10:00
10:30-15:00
16:30-22:30
03:30-10:00

10:30-15:00
.
16:30-22:30
. - ,
. , .

- ,
FOREXTRADER http://www.forextrader.ru/ .

16

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

ForexTrader

EUR
:

10-00 15-15

10-50 . 18 Consumer confidence

.
16-30 - Durable
goods orders - .
03-50 , 1030-13-00 , 16-30
.
03-30 ,
12-30 ( ) 16-30 ().

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5 . . 5
- 1.3925-1.5600.

.
.

4- 1,2495-1,2395,
5 1,3180.

17

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

2004 40

CHF

24.10.04.

18

4 1.3256-1.5000. CHF
0,5086 - 5 , - .
3
1,0511-0,6324 .

CHF 24.10.04.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

ForexTrader

GBP

4 1.7180-1.5855.

: 1,71751,6578, - 5 -
2,0053-2,1636.

JPY

GBP 24.10.04.

19

,
3 95,76,
4 114-85-120,00
- . - 5 84,58-66,07.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

JPY .
.

2004 40

JPY
24.10.04
,
FOREXTRADER.RU
E-mail: trader_karlo@mail.ru

20

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

21

2004 40

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

2004 40

- ( ):
Silver-channel
!
Silver-channel 4-
AlexSilver
Silver-channel Daily
www.viac.ru
Silver-channel Weekly
CFD

-
Silver-channel , .
. .

22

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

USD/JPY: ?

USD/JPY: ?
USD/JPY.
, , . . , 34-39 FOREX MAGAZINE. ,
.

USD/JPY:
, , .
- , .
108.75 - , ""
.
, 108.75
- 107.00 . , 107.00,
, 200 - 105.15-30.
USD/JPY (1995 , 80.00), .
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, , USD/JPY. , "
". , .
, USD/JPY ,
105.00. , .
/, .

:
:
108.10 - 107.00

108.75-109.10 105.15-30

110.20-60 - 104.50

111.50-75 , 103.40
2002
114.90
110.00

23

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY: ?

2004 40

. 108.75-109.20, - ( ), 115.00.
/, .

24

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY: ?

2004 40

USD/JPY
USD/JPY ( )
Light Crude( ).
, . , (- 2004)
(- 2004), "" ,
. (.
). - 85.00, 105.00 USD/JPY.
Light Crude .
( ), (. ). o
, , .
USD/JPY , , .

25

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY: ?

2004 40

FOREX MAGAZINE
:
VIAC.ru
vmn@viac.ru
http://www.viac.ru

26

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

" " -

2004 40

" " - .


.
NYMEX
$1.26 $53.67 .
$55.33 , ,
.
IPE "" $1.02
$48.91 .
OPEC
2005 .
OPEC 2005
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900000 67.3 .
, 500000 49.5 . .
6.9 . ,
.
,
, NYMEX, , $1.5604 .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

" " -

2004 40

WTI $1.63
$54.92 .
.

$1.77 $54.41 .

,
,
, 15 .

WTI $55.50
$55.17 .
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14 , WTI,
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WTI. MACD
, .
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28

Open Interest ,
.
17%

. , , ,
.

$52.00 .
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. EIA 20 ,
, 15 , 1.3% 88.2%. ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

" " -

2004 40

. , 344000 . ,
8 ,
326000 .
43000
10.1 . . ,
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NYMEX ACCESS,
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Forex Magazine
E-mail: bauer@viac.ru

29

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 . , .

2004 40

.
, .
,
, . -
.
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,

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, .
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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

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2004 40

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

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www.Mazurkevich.Com

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AlMaz Fund Management

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,
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32

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 40

:
www.wachovia.com


.
50$- , 50$-
2005 . ,
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.
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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 40

, . ,
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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 40

. . , .
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.

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(b) .
(c)
(e)

35

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

( 18 ). , 2% , , 3% ,
4% . ,



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,
. , ,
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2004 40

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 40

1.1% , 2%. , .
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2002. 2003.,
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25 . ,
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www.wachovia.com

37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

:

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 40

. , , ,
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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

www.screamingquote.com
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2004 40

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 40

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 40

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 2004 40

(AKA ANDREICH)
http://www.fxtrade.tomsk.ru
( 38 FOREX MAGAZINE) , .
.

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www.research.stlouisfed.org

Balance of Payments Analisys (millions of USD)

Year

Current
Account

Current
Account
(%)

Trade
Balance

Trade
Balance
(%)

Export

Export
(%)

Import

Import
(%)

USD
Weighted
Index

GDP

Federal
Funds
Rate

1 973

7 140

0.49%

1 900

0.13%

91 242

6.31%

-89 342

-6.17%

107.0

1 447 000

6.94%

1 974

1 961

0.12%

-4 293

-0.27%

120 897

7.70%

-125 190

-7.97%

103.1

1 570 000

8.33%

1 975

18 116

1.02%

12 404

0.70%

132 585

7.48%

-120 181

-6.78%

103.0

1 772 600

6.75%

1 976

4 295

0.22%

-6 082

-0.31%

142 716

7.36%

-148 798

-7.67%

106.4

1 939 300

6.00%

1 977

-14 335

-0.67%

-27 246

-1.27%

152 301

7.08%

-179 547

-8.35%

104.1

2 150 000

5.96%

1 978

-15 142

-0.61%

-29 763

-1.21%

178 428

7.24%

-208 191

-8.45%

97.8

2 464 400

7.96%

1 979

-285

-0.01%

-24 565

-0.90%

224 131

8.22%

-248 696

-9.13%

94.8

2 725 300

10.78%

1 980

2 317

0.08%

-19 407

-0.64%

271 834

8.90%

-291 241

-9.54%

95.5

3 052 700

12.27%

1 981

5 030

0.16%

-16 172

-0.51%

294 398

9.24%

-310 570

-9.75%

101.6

3 186 800

13.92%

1 982

-5 536

-0.16%

-24 155

-0.71%

275 236

8.14%

-299 391

-8.85%

111.4

3 382 900

11.52%

1 983

-38 692

-1.02%

-57 768

-1.52%

266 106

6.99%

-323 874

-8.50%

120.5

3 809 600

9.00%

1 984

-94 345

-2.29%

-109 072

-2.65%

291 094

7.07%

-400 166

-9.71%

132.2

4 119 500

9.30%

1 985

-118 155

-2.69%

-121 880

-2.78%

289 070

6.59%

-410 950

-9.37%

129.6

4 385 600

8.19%

1 986

-147 176

-3.19%

-138 539

-3.00%

310 033

6.72%

-448 572

-9.72%

111.0

4 613 800

6.83%

51

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

1 987

-160 655

-3.24%

-151 683

-3.06%

348 869

7.05%

-500 552

-10.11%

95.7

4 951 900

6.16%

1 988

-121 153

-2.26%

-114 566

-2.13%

431 149

8.03%

-545 715

-10.17%

90.1

5 367 100

6.70%

1 989

-99 486

-1.74%

-93 141

-1.63%

487 003

8.52%

-580 144

-10.15%

91.5

5 716 400

7.42%

1 990

-78 969

-1.34%

-80 864

-1.37%

535 233

9.09%

-616 097

-10.46%

88.7

5 888 000

7.48%

1 991

3 746

0.06%

-31 135

-0.50%

578 344

9.33%

-609 479

-9.84%

85.3

6 196 100

5.95%

1 992

-47 992

-0.73%

-39 092

-0.60%

616 883

9.43%

-655 975

-10.03%

88.6

6 542 700

3.75%

1 993

-81 987

-1.19%

-70 195

-1.02%

642 863

9.30%

-713 058

-10.32%

91.8

6 911 000

3.50%

1 994

-118 032

-1.62%

-98 379

-1.35%

703 254

9.64%

-801 633

-10.98%

89.5

7 298 300

4.10%

1 995

-109 478

-1.44%

-96 265

-1.26%

794 387

10.42%

-890 652

-11.68%

86.8

7 624 100

5.71%

1 996

-120 207

-1.48%

-103 942

-1.28%

851 602

10.50%

-955 544

-11.78%

88.2

8 113 800

5.52%

1 997

-135 979

-1.58%

-108 178

-1.26%

934 637

10.88% -1 042 815

-12.14%

94.3

8 586 700

5.50%

1 998

-209 557

-2.31%

-164 868

-1.82%

933 495

10.30% -1 098 363

-12.11%

96.5

9 066 600

5.42%

1 999

-296 822

-3.08%

-263 252

-2.73%

966 443

10.04% -1 229 695

-12.77%

95.3

9 629 400

5.12%

2 000

-413 443

-4.13%

-378 344

-3.78%

1 070 980

10.69% -1 449 324

-14.46%

99.8 10 021 500

6.23%

2 001

-385 701

-3.73%

-362 692

-3.51%

1 006 653

9.74% -1 369 345

-13.25%

107.3 10 338 200

3.91%

2 002

-473 944

-4.41%

-421 735

-3.93%

975 940

9.08% -1 397 675

-13.01%

105.0 10 744 600

1.67%

2 003

-530 668

-4.63%

-496 508

-4.33%

1 020 503

8.90% -1 517 011

-13.22%

91.6 11 472 600

1.12%

. 1.
, , . .
1 500 000

140.0

1 000 000

130.0

500 000

110.0

-500 000

00
1

00
3
2

99
9
1

99
7

99
5
1

99
1

99
3
1

98
9
1

98
7

98
5
1

98
1

98
3
1

97
9
1

97
5

97
7
1

97
3

. .

120.0

Export
Import
Trade Balance
Current Account
USD Weighted Index

100.0
-1 000 000

-1 500 000

-2 000 000

52

90.0

80.0

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 40

, .
, , ,
. ,
.
, , , , .
- ,
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(, GDP).
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. .
, , .
20.00%

140.0

15.00%
130.0

10.00%

%%

110.0
00
3
2

00
1
2

99
9
1

99
7
1

99
5
1

99
3
1

99
1
1

98
9
1

98
7
1

98
5
1

98
3
1

98
1
1

97
9
1

97
7
1

97
5
1

97
3

0.00%

-5.00%

120.0
5.00%

Export (%)
Import (%)
Trade Balance (%)
Current Account (%)
Federal Funds Rate
USD Weighted Index

100.0

-10.00%

90.0
-15.00%

-20.00%

53

80.0

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 40

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Forex Magazine
fxtrade@tomsk.ru

54

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004