1

2004 41

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

........................................................................... 3
................................................................................................... 5
FIBO ................................................................................................................................. 7
TeleTRADE D.J. ............................................................................................................. 12
-, . MaBico ............................................................. 14
ForexTrader. ............................ 16
AUDUSD - Silver-channel ......................................................... 21
.................................................................................. 23
USD/JPY: ! ........................................................................................ 25
................................................................................................................................. 29
.......................................................................................... 31
? .................................................................................................... 33
.............................................................................................................................. 35
......................................................................................................................... 38
" " .............................................................................................. 40
.............................................................................................. 42
........................................................................................................................................... 45
......................................................................................................... 48

FOREX MAGAZINE

www.alpari-idc.ru
(095) 29-111-29

.
"FOREX MAGAZINE" .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

FOREX Review

01.11.2004

(msk)
12

PMI .

53.1

53

52.2

52

0.40%

0.30%

0.00%

0.60%

0.80%

0.40%

58.5

58

-9

-10

.
01.11.2004

12.3

CIPS .

.
01.11.2004

16.3

M/M

.
01.11.2004

16.3

M/M

.
01.11.2004

18

M/M

.
01.11.2004

18

ISM .

.
02.11.2004

14

CBI

.
02.11.2004

+27,000

+10,000

10.70%

10.70%

!
03.11.2004

.
03.11.2004

11.55

M/M

.
03.11.2004

11.55

. , .
03.11.2004

12

PMI .

54.4

54.5

54.7

54.5

.
03.11.2004

12.3

CIPS .

.
03.11.2004

18

. M/M

-0.10%

0.50%

03.11.2004

18

ISM .

56.7

59

14.3 .

13.6 .

9.00%

9.00%

.
03.11.2004

23

.
04.11.2004

13

. , .
04.11.2004

13

PPI Y/Y

3.10%

3.30%

-1.50%

0.50%

.
04.11.2004

14

. M/M

, , ,
.
04.11.2004
15

4.75%
4.75%
!

www.forexreview.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

04.11.2004

15.45

2.00%

2.00%

3 .

2.50%

1.80%

1.80%

2.50%

350,000

345,000

-0.80%

0.50%

!
04.11.2004

16.3

- ..

04.11.2004

16.3

. (.) Q/Q

!
.
04.11.2004

16.3

. (.) Q/Q

3 .

.
04.11.2004

16.3

25-30.10

.
05.11.2004

12.3

M/M

,
. . ( )
.
05.11.2004

12.3

Y/Y

-0.10%

0.50%

.
. ,
05.11.2004

13

M/M

-1.30%

1.00%

EC , , .
.
, .
05.11.2004

13

Y/Y

-0.40%

0.50%

-1.00%

0.50%

. .
05.11.2004

14

M/M

,
. . ( )
.
05.11.2004

14

Y/Y

3.70%

4.00%

.
. ,
05.11.2004

16.3

/ M/M

+96,000

+170,000

5.40%

5.40%

.
05.11.2004

16.3

. , .
05.11.2004

16.3

M/M

0.20%

0.30%

33.8

33.8

.
05.11.2004

16.3

www.forexreview.ru
4

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

.
,
, .
/, / /
.
, .
Ifo, . , ,
,
/. , , .
/ ,
, 1.2850.
/ 107.00.
. - . , ,
, . /
. , 106.00,
.
, ,
.
( )
( PMI) ,
3.7% /.

2004 41

, /
1.2800.
1 5

. ,
.
, 2 ,
. ,
( /
1.2900-1.2930), ,
.
.
,
. , /
1.3000,
. 1.3000.
1.26401.2850 /.
.
, .
, , . ,
,
, /
105.00. , , ,
.

, .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

, .
. , , .
, .

ForexMagazine
http://www.fxclub.org

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

FIBO

FOREX FIBO

,

.
, ..
, .


54 . 63.1 .
,
.
,
,
.
, ,
,
.
3.1% , 3.5%.
" "
, , . .
. 0.27%. , . ,
, , .

III 3.7% (

4.3%) , ,
. ,

, III 4.6%, 1.6%
.
, , ,
, 16.8%,
0.3% II . III 8.5% 13.9% II .

14.9% 14.2%
. B III 13.0 ,
21.1 II .
-
0.48%. 5.1%,
( ) 7.7%. , 1.13 .
.
, , III
1.1% 3.1% .
, ,
, III 1.8%.
II 3.5%.
, PMI 61.3 68.5 , 1988
. 58.8 79.7, 50 .
79.4 69.7. (ISM)
, .
,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

2004 41

,
.
,
84.59
. ,
.
,
ISM, , .
, .

.
86.50. ,
.

85.50, 85.90, 87.00, 84.80, 84.50, 84.00.
.
,
,

1.2840.


.

.
Ifo 95.3,
94.8,
95.2.
,
.
EZ, 0.54 0.49.
101.3 101.0.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

, , 19% . VDMA
9% .

EZ.
2.5% . , , EZ -14 -13 ( -12).
EZ
2.0% 2.3% 2005 . , , , EZ ,

3.0% ,
.
,
. , ,
EZ. ,
.
. , , 1.2800
.


,
.
EUR/USD 1.2840.
-

2004 41

EZ .
EUR/USD 1.2840 ,
,
. EUR/USD 1.2850, 1.2927,
1.3000, 1.2635, 1.2465, 1.2535/40.
. 10 1.8450 GBP/USD ,
1.8200.
, 1.8350, 1.8520 .


- ,

. Hometrack Nationwide
0.6% 0.4% .

16.27 .
16.61. 16.92
. .
4.4 . . ,
. 6.4%
. 59 905
64 032 .
.

9.4 . 10.2
. , . 89 000 95 000 ,
2000 .
7.7 . 8.4
. .
,
4.75%.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

2004 41

. 14 12
.
-12 -6 -7 .
-11 -14
.
. 6 -7 .

,
, 0.2%
0.4% . 0.3%,
49 .
,
,
,
, .

, III GBP/USD
1.8370.

0.7% ,
0.9%.

3.8% 9.7% . ,

,
. ( )
, .

, ,
,
,
. GBP/USD 1.8450, 1.8520 -
,
1.8770.
GBP/USD 1.8200, 1.8070,
, 1.7880/90.
.
.
107.00 USD/
JPY 106.00
105.85.
3.5 . ,
,
, , .
, ,
, ,
.
, .

.

10

, 1.7% .
2.3%,
3.4%
1.8% .
, , 55-60%
, . ,
,
.
4.6% 4.8% ,
240 .
70 .
-

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

. ,
,
, 0.3%, 1% . (
10 )
, , ,

, , .
-
-
0.3% 0.2%
. ,
. , ,
0,3%
,
61 .

2004 41

USD/JPY
107.00, 108.00 109.30.

, , , USD/JPY.

FIBO
Forex Magazine
http://www.fibo-forex.ru

, ,
2005 , , , .
,
,
. ,
, , .

.
, USD/JPY 103.40. 105.30
. ,
.
,

11

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 TeleTRADE D.J.

2004 41

TeleTRADE D.J.
FOREX 25.10-29.10

.
5.58%. .

1.2655, .
. ,

1.2930.
1.2800.
. 107.00 106.00.

, , .
,
.
,
. , :
92.8 96.7 .
,
- . - $55.67 (21-
) $53.85 .
. $428.60
$424.40 .
,
.

12

/ 1.2845 .

. ,
1206 1165. .

,
, , 0.2% 0.6%
.
120
200 .

,
. , ,
,

15.3%
17.8% .

, . / 1.8280.
, ,

.
5.58% .
100 .

- ,
. -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

TeleTRADE D.J.

.
.

III . (4%-5%) .
+3.7% +3.3% , , .
.
01.11-05.10
III ,
,
. , .


, .

.
,
.
. (
, , PPI),
.
. 160-200 . .
,
-
TeleTRADE D.J. Trust Com & Securities Ltd.

E-mail: analitics@trust-com.ru

13

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

-, . MaBico

-, .
Mabico.

", - ,
- "
.

,
, . .
, - 1,29
. ,
, , ,
. , . , ,

,
.
.

, , 1,2650-1,2870. ,

.
,
-,
. 1,29 2003
, , , , .
. ,
, - ,
. ,
, .
,
. ,

14

,
.
8 .
Brent IPE
- $51,90. WTI, - NYMEX,
. WTI
$55,67.

.
0.2 7%
5.58%, .
- ,
.27% 2.25%.
,
.
.

. "" .

. (Existing home sales)
6.75 . ( 6.60 ., 6.54 6.55 .).
,
21 - 55.67 , 55 $ - 50$

. .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 MaBico

, .
, III
3,7% . ,
4,2% - 4,3%.
II 3,3%
, I - 4,5%.

91,7 94,2
. ,
87,5.
.
(Institute for Supply
Management, ISM),
68,5 61,3 .
, . , ,
, 1,2650-1,2870.

2004 41

. - 3 , , ,
.
1 1,9800 1,2450, 1,22
- 50% .
3 161,8 % .
1,259. . -
.
, ,
,
,
, www.mabico.ru.
,
"".
, .
www. Mabico.ru

Forex Magazine

.
-

15

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader.

2004 41

-
-
(www.forextrader.ru), ,

. -
, Forex.

FOREX
04-08.11.2004

FOREX, MSK

09:30-15:00
16:30-22:30

10:30-22:30

11:30-15:00
18:00-22:30

14:00-16:00
16:30-22:30

12:30-15:00

1,2838
16:30-22:30
, ,
. ,
. ,
. -
, , , , .

- ,
FOREXTRADER http://www.forextrader.ru/ .

16

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

ForexTrader

EUR
:

09-50 , 12-30 .
16-30 .
-
.
11-45 - 12-30
,
. 18 - Factory orders ISM
services index ,

.
-
.
12-30
, 16-30
.
,
.

,
. 4 (1,1233-1,0307),
5 . . 5
- 1.3925-1.5600.

4- 1,2515-1,2287,
5 1,3888 ( , ,
).

17

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

2004 41

CHF

31.10.04.

18

4 1.3256-1.5000. CHF
0,5086 - 5 , - .
3
1,0511-0,6324 .

CHF 31.10.04.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

ForexTrader

GBP

4 1.7180-1.5855.

: 1,71751,6578, - 5 -
2,0053-2,1636.

JPY

GBP 31.10.04.

19

,
3 95,76,
4 114-85-120,00
- . - 5 84,58-66,07.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

JPY .

2004 41

JPY
31.10.04
,
FOREXTRADER.RU
E-mail: trader_karlo@mail.ru

20

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

21

2004 41

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

2004 41

- ( ):
Silver-channel
!
Silver-channel 4-
AlexSilver
Silver-channel Daily
www.viac.ru
Silver-channel Weekly
CFD

-
Silver-channel , .
. .

22

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

. , . ,
15 . . , ,
(55.57). , , . , ,
. , , . , , ,
, ,
.
.
, 432.00 , , ,
, . , , BW MFI
, . , ,
, . , ,
, , ,
. 420.00 , ,
432.00, 435-437.00.

23

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

.
.
. , , ,
, . (100) 200%
, , .
, ,
"", , 415, .

!
:
E-mail: eduard@viac.ru
www.viac.ru

24

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

USD/JPY: !

USD/JPY: !
USD/JPY,
/.
.
34-40 FOREX MAGAZINE. - , .

. 1995 ,
- 80 3 147.
,
.
,
2000 . 2003 . 15- 103.40 . 2000 101
() ,
( ) .
103.40 ,
( ) - . 1995 .

25

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY: !

2004 41

,
. . , ( ) 105.00, - . 103.40, 200 - 101.25, 100
.
"" - . ,
, (
) 110.00, , 103.50-105.00. - , . "" .

26

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY: !

2004 41

USD/JPY:
107.00, ,
, . 107.00
, .
106.00, .
105.00-20 103.40. -
103.40, .
"" 107.00.
108.75 ,
- .
, .
, , -
.

107.00
108.75
110.20-60
111.50-75
114.90

27

105.15-30
105.00

103.40

101.25

100.00

1995

2000 ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 USD/JPY: !

2004 41

FOREX MAGAZINE
:
VIAC.ru
vmn@viac.ru
http://www.viac.ru

28

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

www.michaelcovel.com
, :

:
- , - , - .
- ,
- , , , - .

.
, , , .

:
, - .
.
.

. , , ,

:
, .
- , ,
.

- - - , .

- " " " ".

" ". .
- , .
, - .

29

, .
.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

, .
. , .

, , .
, .

:
, , .
. , , -
, .

- , .
.

, . . , , ,
. , . , -
, , .

Forex Magazine
www.michaelcovel.com

30

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

www.bloomberg.com

,
"Bloomberg News"
,
. 2004
, .
2005 ,
, .

"Macquarie Securities Ltd." .
" " , , .
, ,
? , , . , , , ,
, .
,
- . ,
,
14 , , . , , , , , , .
,

,

. "", , " ,
,
".

31

, ,
,
,
. ,
, ,
,
.
, - - ,
.
, , . , 14 .
- , . , -
.

1980-.

,
, 23
.
- . , , ,
,
.
,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

, , 27
1.300 , "
" - ,
1995 , 5.000
. ,
.

, , ,
. ,
, , ,
. , - 1.3%
- .

,
. ,
, - , ,

.
,
.

, ,
,
.
Forex Magazine
www.bloomberg.com

,
. , "
", "Lehman Brothers Japan Inc." .
,
, ,
,
. ,
,
, 150%
.
, ,
.
,
,
2.2% 12 .
,
, .

32

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

?

,
, , , . , , . ,

, , .
, ,
, , .
, , , . ,
,
, . , , , , .
, ,
, -
.
, , , , ,
, .
? , !
, , , ?
. ,
.
, , , , - .
MACD .
: " ".

33

www.esignal.com
,
,
. , , ,
, - .

, . MACD , , ,
: " ",
. , "
", .
,
,
? ,
, , , !
, ,
. , -, ,
. ,
.
, ,
. ,
,
,
.
, , ,
,
, -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

. ,
, ,
- , " , ". , ,

.

2004 41

, , . - " ,
!" , - - " , !"
Forex Magazine
www.esignal.com

,
, . ,
.

:
.
, : . ,

.
, , , - . ,
, ,
,
- ? ,
.
,
, , , . ,
.
,
!
,
,
.
! ,
, -

34

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

" - .
, , ,

- ".

. , ,
, .
,
. , .
, , , .
-
.
,
, ,
. , ,
, .
?
. . .
, .
. .
. . . : "
".

35

www.marketmavens.com
. ,
.
:
, ,
. . ,
. ,
?
, ,
.
, , , , . ,
. ,
,
- , ,
- .
, ,
. ,
, , ,
.
- ,
. ,
, , ,
, ,
, .

, , , . ,
, ,
, , .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

. .
? ? ?
, ,
. -
, .
, ,
.
? ? . .
.

. ,
, .
, ", ? , ? , ?" , .
. .
. .
, ", ? ,
? , , ?" , .
: .
. . . , " ?
?"
.
.

36

- .
, . .
, .
, .
, ,
, .
, , ?

- . , .
, . ,
, , .
, , , .
, , ,
? . ,
, ,
.
, .
80 , .
.
, ? ?
? ? ?
. , ,
?

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

,
.
, . , , .
- , . , .
-, . .
.
, , ,
. , .
, , . ,
. ,
.
, . . -
,
, .
.
Forex Magazine
www.marketmavens.com

37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

,
. ,
. ,
, ,
, ,
, . , . ,
, , ,
.
8 ,

.

8 ,
. ,
80 ,
. , 5
,
.
1)
100% ,
- . , . , , ,
, ,
.

5

38

www.esignal.com
, , . , , ,

.
2)

, ,
,
, . , S&P 500 ,
.
3)
, , .
: , , .
4)


(" "). ,
-
, , ..

. , -
, .
5)
-
. , .
:

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

( ? )
,
( 6 ).

, .

, ,

, .
, ,
, .

, , ,
.
:
, ,
.

6)
( ) , - , . , , ,
. ,
, .
7)

( ..), ,
.
. , ,
, , , , . -, .

.
. ,

.
Forex Magazine
www.esignal.com

8)
. -,
40-60%- ,
1.3 2.0. -,
( ,
)
, , 3
. , 60% .

39

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 " "

2004 41

" "
www.stockcharts.com

, (, ).
-,
, .

,
.
: V - ,
( ). , ,
.
: . , " "
.
: ,
, .
,
. ,
" "
,
.

: , . , .
, ,
. , , ,
.
:
, . :

40

: , :
,
. ,
, .
" "
" "
. . ,
.
" " ,
. .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 " "

2004 41

: 11.66, , .
4 ( ).

1997. 17 . 1998. .

OBV.

, , 17. 11.66 19.84 6

, , ,
.

Forex Magazine
www.stockcharts.com
"AMGN" " ",
. 1996., , 16.63 12.83.
1997., , 12.

:
12.83, , .
, , 52- .
"AMGN" .

: 17 11.22 1998. , ( ).

: , 12 6 . , , .
, ,

11.66.

41

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

,

. ,
, , , . .

. .

, ,
5 , 3
. , , ,
,
"", .

9- , .

42

www.ensignsoftware.com
5- : ( 1-23-4-5 )
1) %K
( ) 1. %K 20 70.
2) 2 %K %D ( ),
50.
3) 3 , %K .
%K 80,
90. ,
3, %K !
4) 4 , %K
%D . , . - 3 , -, 3 ,
5. ,
5 - , 3.
5) 5 , %K
, %D ,

, %K .
%K
%D ,
. , , , . .
3- : ( a-b-c)
) 4. %K

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

,
30.
, 1.
) b 5. ,
3. %K
%D, 50.
) c %K 30.
20, c. : . ,
%K %D.
2 4 ( ),
,
.
:
,
3 5, 1.
a-b-c 4 ,
2. , 5, , 2 . .
:
1, 3 5
. 2 4 .
, 5-
. 5
, , .
:
,
, , ,

. , -

43

2004 41

- . ,
, %K %D - 9, 3, 3.

.
, . ,
.
:
.
,
, , . ""
, . = 100 * ( - ) / . ,
%K %D 3 3,
.

, . -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

, . :
, .
24 13 .
18 . , 9
.
%K:
%K
.
, %K.
, ,
%K. %K 9- 3 %D .

%D,
%D. , %K %D . 3
%D.
,
.
. , , "", , ,
.
Forex Magazine
www.ensignsoftware.com

%K ,
. %K, .
3 5
%K.
%D:
%D %K.
%K ,
%D . 9-
3 %K .

44

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

"Sentive Trading"
"Harvest Capital Management". ,
2/20 EMA .
,
" "
"
".

www.hardrightedge.com
. 50- , ,
. " ",
50- ,
"", "",
. ,
/ .
( . " " " 34)

" "
, 50- -

, 50- , .
, " 50- ,
. ,
, " (2).
, , ,
50- , .

1: " ". , "" 50- .

2: . 50-
.

" "
(1) ,
. , , , , "". ,
, "" .
', ,
" " , .

45

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

" -", , , , . ,
/ . , , , ADX, 20- .
" ".

2004 41

20-
1. ,
- . . 4
2000 Gold Comex.

1: 2/20 EMA
3: . ADX, .

" "
,
. ( ) .
. ,
.
, ,

, , ,
( ) (
) . "" " ",
" " . , 2/20- EMA (3),

46

4: Comex Gold. , 2/20 EMA ( " ") ,

- - .
, .

,
" "
(), ,
30%

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

. , ( ), / ( )
. ,
, . ,
10- ,
, 50 .

. , - , , ,
.

.
. . ,
.
.
.
Forex Magazine
www.hardrightedge.com

47

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

(AKA ANDREICH)
http://www.fxtrade.tomsk.ru
( 40 FOREX MAGAZINE)
30 . , ,
. 2001-2003 - ,
. . ,
, .

?
, , , . .

, , . , . ,
"+".

Balance of Payments Analysis (millions of USD)

Year

Trade
Balance

Trade
Balance
(%)

Export

Export
(%)

Import

Import
(%)

USD
Weighted
Index

GDP

Federal
Funds
Rate

1 973

1 900

0.13%

91 242

6.31%

89 342

6.17%

107.0

1 447 000

6.94%

1 974

-4 293

-0.27%

120 897

7.70%

125 190

7.97%

103.1

1 570 000

8.33%

1 975

12 404

0.70%

132 585

7.48%

120 181

6.78%

103.0

1 772 600

6.75%

1 976

-6 082

-0.31%

142 716

7.36%

148 798

7.67%

106.4

1 939 300

6.00%

1 977

-27 246

-1.27%

152 301

7.08%

179 547

8.35%

104.1

2 150 000

5.96%

1 978

-29 763

-1.21%

178 428

7.24%

208 191

8.45%

97.8

2 464 400

7.96%

1 979

-24 565

-0.90%

224 131

8.22%

248 696

9.13%

94.8

2 725 300

10.78%

1 980

-19 407

-0.64%

271 834

8.90%

291 241

9.54%

95.5

3 052 700

12.27%

1 981

-16 172

-0.51%

294 398

9.24%

310 570

9.75%

101.6

3 186 800

13.92%

1 982

-24 155

-0.71%

275 236

8.14%

299 391

8.85%

111.4

3 382 900

11.52%

1 983

-57 768

-1.52%

266 106

6.99%

323 874

8.50%

120.5

3 809 600

9.00%

48

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

1 984

-109 072

-2.65%

291 094

7.07%

400 166

9.71%

132.2

4 119 500

9.30%

1 985

-121 880

-2.78%

289 070

6.59%

410 950

9.37%

129.6

4 385 600

8.19%

1 986

-138 539

-3.00%

310 033

6.72%

448 572

9.72%

111.0

4 613 800

6.83%

1 987

-151 683

-3.06%

348 869

7.05%

500 552

10.11%

95.7

4 951 900

6.16%

1 988

-114 566

-2.13%

431 149

8.03%

545 715

10.17%

90.1

5 367 100

6.70%

1 989

-93 141

-1.63%

487 003

8.52%

580 144

10.15%

91.5

5 716 400

7.42%

1 990

-80 864

-1.37%

535 233

9.09%

616 097

10.46%

88.7

5 888 000

7.48%

1 991

-31 135

-0.50%

578 344

9.33%

609 479

9.84%

85.3

6 196 100

5.95%

1 992

-39 092

-0.60%

616 883

9.43%

655 975

10.03%

88.6

6 542 700

3.75%

1 993

-70 195

-1.02%

642 863

9.30%

713 058

10.32%

91.8

6 911 000

3.50%

1 994

-98 379

-1.35%

703 254

9.64%

801 633

10.98%

89.5

7 298 300

4.10%

1 995

-96 265

-1.26%

794 387

10.42%

890 652

11.68%

86.8

7 624 100

5.71%

1 996

-103 942

-1.28%

851 602

10.50%

955 544

11.78%

88.2

8 113 800

5.52%

1 997

-108 178

-1.26%

934 637

10.88%

1 042 815

12.14%

94.3

8 586 700

5.50%

1 998

-164 868

-1.82%

933 495

10.30%

1 098 363

12.11%

96.5

9 066 600

5.42%

1 999

-263 252

-2.73%

966 443

10.04%

1 229 695

12.77%

95.3

9 629 400

5.12%

2 000

-378 344

-3.78%

1 070 980

10.69%

1 449 324

14.46%

99.8 10 021 500

6.23%

2 001

-362 692

-3.51%

1 006 653

9.74%

1 369 345

13.25%

107.3 10 338 200

3.91%

2 002

-421 735

-3.93%

975 940

9.08%

1 397 675

13.01%

105.0 10 744 600

1.67%

2 003

-496 508

-4.33%

1 020 503

8.90%

1 517 011

13.22%

91.6 11 472 600

1.12%

. 1. 30

49

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

, ,
. .
15.00%

13.00%

11.00%

%%

9.00%

7.00%

Trade Balance (%)

5.00%

Export (%)
Import (%)
Poly. (Import (%))
Poly. (Export (%))
Poly. (Trade Balance (%))

3.00%

00
3

00
1
2

99
9
1

99
7
1

99
5
1

99
3
1

99
1
1

98
9
1

98
7
1

98
5
1

98
3
1

98
1
1

97
9
1

97
7
1

97
3

-1.00%

97
5

1.00%

-3.00%

-5.00%

.1.
, . , .
2001-2003 . , , 2001-2003 !

,
. .
, ()
. .
: ,
.

50

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 41

(FOREX) . , ,
, .
, , .
.
, , .
, , - , , .
, . , ,
. ? , () , -
. ,
, .. - .
.

r
r1
r2

NFI
NFI

Er
Er
Er

NFI

NX
Qm

.2.

51

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 41

, , . , , . .
.
, (, , ).
-
( ). , , . , ( - ) ,
.
,
(. ), , , ,
( ).
.
-
, .

Forex Magazine
fxtrade@tomsk.ru

52

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004