1

2004 44

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 44

- ? ................................................ 3
........................................................................... 5
................................................................................................... 6
FIBO ................................................................................................................................. 8
TeleTRADE D.J. ............................................................................................................. 12
! Bico ........................................... 14
. . ForexTrader. ....................................................... 16
. ............................................................................. 22
EUR/USD 22.11.2004 ................................................................................................................ 26
AUDUSD - Silver-channel ......................................................... 31
.................................................................................. 33
..................................................................................................................... 35
. ...................................... 37
....................................................................................................................... 41
......................................................................................................................... 45
................................................................................................ 48
........................................................................................................................................ 52
.................................................................................................................................... 53

FOREX MAGAZINE

www.alpari.org
(095) 29-111-29

.
"FOREX MAGAZINE" .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 - ?

2004 44

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 - ?

2004 44

8.
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17 " "
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26 . " Rann-a"
- " Silver-channel"

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 44

FOREX Review

(msk)

22.11.2004

13

+3.0 .

+5.0 .

0.10%

0.10%

.
23/11/2004

.
23.11.2004

10

(.) Q/Q

3 .

. .
23.11.2004

10

(.) Y/Y

3 .

1.30%

1.30%

. .
.

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0.50%
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.
.

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23.11.2004

13

6.75 .
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.
24.11.2004
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.
24.11.2004
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.

334,000
330,000
23.11.2004

18

.
24.11.2004

25.11.2004

18

12

.
-

IFO

1.206 .

1.200 .

95.3

94.3

. .
25.11.2004

14

CBI

-6

-3

0.00%

0.40%

.
25.11.2004

.
26.11.2004

2.3

CPI . . Y/Y

. , .
26.11.2004

12.3

(.) Q/Q

3 .

0.40%

0.40%

. .
26.11.2004

12.3

(.) Y/Y

3 .

3.00%

3.00%

. .

www.forexreview.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

. /.

104.00. /
- 1.3000.
?
, . , ,
, , . ,
, ,

63.4 . . - ,
.

. , 14 .
/ 1.3200 .
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,
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2004 44

, ,
- . , , , .
.
.
/ , .. . . ,
: RICS
2002 . ,
,
, ,
/, /.
- /,
0.7000.

. 105.00 /.
. , ,
,
. ,
, : / , , 105.00 104.00.

.
. ,
, . ?
, , ..
,
.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 44

/

, (24.11.).
, ..
-
(26.11.).

, ,
/ 1.3100
1.3200. , ,
, ..
- ,
.

19
, .
- ,
.
,
.

/
100. ,
.

ForexMagazine
http://www.fxclub.org

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 44

FIBO

FOREX FIBO
, ,
83.00.
, , ,
. . ( )
, ,
, .
,

, , .
, , , , .. .
, , .

,
- ,
. 0.7% , 77.7%,
2001 .

.
,

.
. 1.7%, ,
,

0.3%. . -
0.6%, 0.2% 2.0%
.
, , , 25 .

,
. , ( ) , .
6.4%,
.

0.4%, .
,
,
, .
.

, .
, , . .
,
,
. . ,

83.10. , .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

.
63.3 . 59.9 . .
.
. ,
, , .
, , .

82.50/55, 81.70 81.34, 83.70, 84.20 84.67.
. EZ . EUR/
USD 1.3074, .

,
.
, ,
EZ,
. ,
,
EZ, - ,
. .
EZ 2.0%,
, ,
. ,

2004 44

,
,
. ,
"" . , ,
. ,
, . ,
, . ,
, .
,

.
, 0.5%
, .
, "" ,
,
, ,
,
EUR/USD .
EZ.
, Ifo .

EZ,
EUR/USD.
EUR/USD , 1.2800-1.3140.

.
.
,
25 , . EUR/USD

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

2004 44

1.2920, 1.2835
1.2660. EUR/USD
1.3140, 1.3230/40 1.3350.
. ,
, 1.8450-1.8620.

.
.
,
RICS.
1.2% . 0.3% ,

3.3%. , . , . ,
,
.
23.3 . 25.4 .
.
90,000 99,000 .
11.0 . , 12.1 .
. 0.4%
, 6.0%.

, " - ".
. ,
,
, , -

10

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 FIBO

. , ,
(EZ, ),
.
,
,
,
.
GBP/USD
,
. , 1.8777 GBP/USD
1.8320, . GBP/USD 1.8650, 1.8777,
1.8940
1.9147.
1.8450, 1.8320, 1.8180.
. USD/JPY 105.30 , ,
102.70.
,
, ,
.
, - , , .
,
100.00.
, ,
. 27.3 30.0. , , 35.0 22.2.

11

2004 44

, , , - .
. , .
-
, . ,
. , , ,

. , Nikkei
,


. USD/JPY
103.40, 100.00 .

, . ,
USD/JPY ,

. USD/JPY
, 101.20, ,
, .
USD/JPY
102.00/05, 101.20 100.00, 104.40,
105.30, 107.30.

FIBO
Forex Magazine
http://www.fibo-forex.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 TeleTRADE D.J.

2004 44

TeleTRADE D.J.
, , , ,
,
. /
$1.30, /
Y105.00.

. , , - , ,
,
.

( III
3.7%, nonfarm payrolls 337, ) .

$63.4 . $59.9 . .
.
,
,
,

. , ,
.
(PPI)
1,7%, .
15 , , , , .

, ,
(, ), .

12

(CPI) 0.6%
0.2% . +0.1%. ,
.

,
G20 -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 TeleTRADE D.J.

2004 44

19 . , " "
. ,
.
"" ,

. ,

. . 45
15 , / Y103.20.
21.11-25.11
,

, G20.
,
. ,
.
,
-
Teletrade D.J.
e-mail: analitics@trust-com.ru

13

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ! Bico

2004 44

!
Bico
,
,

- .
, 2002
.
,
,
.
, , , ,

, , ,

.
,
, 5,5-6%
3% .
, . , , , , , , .
, ,
,
; .

14

.
, , , JPMorgan
, , "
". , ", 3%,
2.25% - ". , , " , , ,
6 - 70 ..".
Citibank , " , ,
, . ".
" , . ,
", - , . "
, ". " ".
, ,
,
.
, - , , .
3
, " ".

, , ,
, .
-

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ! Bico

2004 44

.
, , WestLB.
,
, , . ,
,

.
, 3-5 , ,
, .
, , -,
. , ,

.
, ,
,
,
, www.mabico.ru.
,
"".
, .
www. Mabico.ru

Forex Magazine

15

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 . . ForexTrader.

2004 44

. .
-
-
(www.forextrader.ru), ,

. -
, Forex.

FOREX
22-26.11.2004

FOREX, MSK

13:00-22:30

10:00-14:30
16:30-21:30

12:30-15:30
16:30-22:30

10:00-15:00
16:30-22:30

02:30-09:30
10:45-22:00

- , ,
. , , ,
G20. ,
, BoJ. 103,43
102,69
- , - ,
.
- , - . , .
,
3 96,00. , ,
. / BoJ .
, , , . BoJ , . - 105, 114-118, , .
, , ,
. ,
.
?....

16

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 44

ForexTrader

EUR
:

13-00 .


G-20 (19-21 ), ,
.

,
, , ,
4 .
10-00 GDP , 13-00
- .
. 16-30 redbook
.
11-30 .
16-30 - ,
. .

3 , - .
: 1.2000-1,1088.
1,2000-1,1360. 4 ,
5 . 5 - 1.4792-1.6500. 5 .

- , 10 12 IFO. 14
. - .
02-30 - , . 10-45 17-25 . .

5 - 1,4148-01,6192.

17

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

EUR

2004 44

CHF

3 - 1,3740,
. 4
1,2807-1,2380. - 5- 1,3899.

3
1,0500-0,6280, 4
1,2900-1,3685, - 5 0,3719.

21.11.04 -
.

CHF
5 1,0860-0,8816.

18

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 44

ForexTrader

CHF

3 1,0800 ( ), 4- (1,1869-1,2408) 5- -
1,0600-0,9828.

CHF 21.11.04.

19

GBP

4 1.71651.5855, 5-
2,0315-2,2280.

5 - 2,0587-2,2577. 4
,
1,6559-1,5750.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 44

ForexTrader

GBP

4 , 5
2,0050-2,1625.
4 1,7000.

GBP 21.11.04.

20

JPY

, - 3 , 96,25, - 4 109,85-117,90.
- 5 90,95-79,00.

JPY 5
96,30-78,35.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 ForexTrader

JPY 3
96,00. BoJ 4 104,75-108,95, - 5- 95,80.

2004 44

JPY
21.11.04
,
FOREXTRADER.RU
E-mail: trader_karlo@mail.ru

- ,
FOREXTRADER http://www.forextrader.ru/ .

21

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, , . , ,
.
Nymex 76
$46.11 ,
$47.40.
IPE "" 75 $42.95 ,

$43.65.


.
Dow Jones
Newswires
1.9
. , 640000 ,
, , 560000 .
.
,
,
, , . , 5 ,
92%.
, ,
10.5 . .

22

2004 44

EIA, , 12 ,
, , ,
.
,
800000 292.3 . .
,
, .

400000 200.9
. , 4.3
. ,

.

. . , , ,
, .
, ,
. , , ,

EIA , 12 ,
,
, 1 .
114.6 . . -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, 19 .
, . , .
, ,
1.5 . 63.7 . .
700000
49.1 . , , , 9.3 .
, .
. , - . ,
70% .
266000
10.2 . , ,
10.5 . .
222000 .

, 12 , 93.5%.
90%. ,
, , .

, , , , 5 .
. , , .
, ,
, EIA
. .
197000 15.6 . . - ,
.

23

2004 44

4
4.2 . , 8.1%
, .
20.601 .
, 2.7% .
900000 671.2 . .

. Nymex
WTI 73
$46.84 .
IPE "" 47 $42.74 .
, Nymex 8.45 , 6.2%,
$1.4114 .
3.40 $1.2560 .
-
, .
,
OPEC ,
. OPEC
2005 .
Nymex WTI
62 $46.22.
IPE "" 4 $42.72 .

. 1.77
$1.2383 , ,
1.86
$1.4300 .
OPEC
.
, OPEC ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 44

, .

,
, .

, OPEC
2005 . OPEC
1.49
,
.

, ,
"".

- . ,
- -
.

.
,
. , . , , ,

. NOAA (
)
, - .
, -, .
, . 450000 , .
, , OPEC 10
. , .
OPEC, ,
.
, .
,
.
, , Nymex.
. -

24

WTI $2.22 $48.44 .
1 .
.
IPE "" $2.17
$44.89 .
"-" $26
$449. 75 .
, Nymex, 5.26 $1.4826
.
7.26 $1.3109 .
WTI.
,
$48.20, . , ,
$49.75, , .
, ,
.
, , .
" ".
, ,
12 . , ,
.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 44

,
.
WTI, CLF5. , $49.50-$49.75.
-
$48.25/30.

$51.50-$52.00 . ,
,
, $60 . ,
.

E-mail: bauer@viac.ru

Forex Magazine
www.alpari.org

25

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 44

EUR/USD 22.11.2004

22 2004

EURUSD 1.3000, ,
1,3076 1,2936 .
G20 , . ,
.
Hans Eichel , ,
, .
, ,
.
,
, . . ,
, ,
, . , .,
, ,
, ,
.
, .
, , 1,3100 ,
. 1,3110.
, G20.
, ,
LB. .

1
2
3
4

1
1.3043
1.3067
1.3125
1.3169

2
1.3113
1.3098
1.3196

3
1.3148

1
1.2937
1.2968
1.2933
1.2960

2
1.2931
1.2870
1.2890

3
1.2887
1.2830

UP : 1,3119 / 1,3182
DOWN: 1,2934 / 1,2964 / 1,2888

26

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 EUR/USD 22.11.2004

2004 44

1.2791-1.3259 (468 )
weekly Res: 1.3103 / 1.3163 / 1.3199 / 1.3259
weekly Sup: 1.2947 / 1.2887 / 1.2851 / 1.2791
weekly NZ 1.3007-1.3043 (36)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.2835-1.3215 (380 )
intraday Res:...1.3088 / 1.3137 / 1.3167 / 1.3215
intraday Sup: ..1.2962 / 1.2913 / 1.2883 / 1.2835
day NZ 1.3010-1.3040 (30 )
NZ,
.
, .
, .
3 .
1
.
1 24 .

27

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 EUR/USD 22.11.2004

2004 44

MA

1. UP
LB 1.2961 U3 1.3091 (+130 ).
2. DOWN
LB 1.2961 D3 1.2831 (-130 )
3. U3 1,3091 U4 1,3171 (80 )
4. D3 1,2831 D4 1,2751 (80 )
, .
,
U2 LB.
, , U1,
LB.
,
. 1,3046, U2
U1.

1,3076. U2, G20
. .
D1 1.2940 . LB ,
.. . .

28

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 EUR/USD 22.11.2004

2004 44

Time Ellipse

, , .
D (5,35,5)
. G20,
, , .
. , ,
1,3163, 1,3100.
, , .
. ,
, , .
, , ,
, .
, , , .
, . ,
, . .

29

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 EUR/USD 22.11.2004

2004 44

, - ,
11, 21,41, 12, 14.
, 21
01.10.04 12 09.05.04, 12 06.05.04.
,
, ,
.
, , 5,
, .

, www.viac.ru
. ,
A_Vlad, _Vlad,
.
,
e-mail: a_vlad@viac.ru

30

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

31

2004 44

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

2004 44

- ( ):
Silver-channel
!
Silver-channel Daily
AlexSilver
Silver-channel Weekly
www.viac.ru
CFD
Silver-channel
- " Silver-channel"
Silver-channel , .
. .

32

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 44

.
, , , . , , . , .
, , .
440.00, , 450.00,
. , . BW MFI , .
, .
.

33

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 44

.
, .
, .
432-433.00. . MACD . 450.00 , , .
G20 , ,
. , ,
.

!
:
E-mail: eduard@viac.ru
www.viac.ru

34

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 44

www.bloomberg.com

"Bloomberg News"
, ,

- " , ".
, . , 2004 .
,

.

.
,
.
, " ".
- ,
5 ,
,
, 10 , , .
, ,
1.30$ , .

"
". ,
"
". 496.5 . $ ,
, 166.2 . $

35

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1.40$ 100 .
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.
1. .
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, ,

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, ,
.
, , " ".
.
,
,
.

2%, ,
, " ". ,
. , - ,
2%,
. " ",
.
,
, 2006., ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2005.
.
, ,
,
.
2.
"" - ,
-
. "" -
. "" -
, , , .
12
0.3%,
0.4% 0.5%.
, ,
,
.
"" 50$ ,
,
. , 40$, , .
, ,
, .
10 ,

,
.
,
. , , ,
. .
3.
0.3%
. 28 , "Bloomberg News" 2.1%.
"".

36

2004 44

,

, , , 113
, . ,

100 .
. "Merrill Lynch & Co"
,
,
, , 8.3 , 1995.
, "Merrill Lynch & Co" .
, , 500 . $.
, ,
,
, . ? ,
"800- ". .
4.
900 . $, -
,
. ,
2004. 3.8%, 15%
, , "Credit
Suisse Group" "Tremont Capital Management".
,
, ,
. , " - ".
Forex Magazine
www.bloomberg.com

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 44

.
.
.
,
. ,
. , , , ,

. ,
, , , .
,
, , . , ,
,
. , ,

, .
, ,
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.

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37

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, ,
, , ,
.
, . , ,
, .
, .
, , .
, ,
, , .

,
. ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

,

,
.

, - ,
,
.
.
,


. ,
,
. ,
, .
, . , - ,
.
,
, . , 2001
2003 ,
, , , . ,
, , , ,
. 2003 2005
,
, , , . ,
. , "",
. , -

38

2004 44

, ,
, ,
. 2005 ,
,
, .
2005 2007

, .
,
, ,
, , .
,
. , , 2004
, ,
, ,
.
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2004 2005 , - " ", ,
, , , . , - 1980,
1968, 1956 . 2005
, .
, .

. ,
, ,
, . ,
. ,
. , ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 44

1918 - 1919, 1942, 1954 - 55, 1966, 1978,

2001 - 2002 , . , .
1930 , ,
.
1936, 1971 - 72, 1983, 1995 - 1996
, , 1924 , , .

,
.
1930 - 1932, 1988 - 1991 ,
.


. , , 2004 ,
, - ,

, . 2004 ,
, , , 2005 . .

.
2000 , , ,
, 20 -
, ,
. , , , ,
.
60
,
180 .
1842 ,
,
.

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1 1842 - 2020

,
.
20
.
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,
, , ,
, , -

39

1 60

1842
1852

2
60

1901
1911

3 60

1961
1971

,
.

1.

2.

1852
1862

1911
1921

1971
1981

1862
1872

1921
1931

1981
1990

1872
1882

1931
1940

1990
2000

1882
1892

1940
1950

2000
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II, ,
,
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1 2 .
,

,

,
.
,
.
.
,
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, ,
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,
1944 ,
.
.

3.

4.

5.

6.

1892
1901

1950
1951

2010
2020

1901, ,
1911 . ,
60

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

 2004 44

, . ,
10 - .
, , , 45 ( 2). 16 ,
,
,
.

,
,
.
, ,
.
( ).

, ,

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.

40

0-45
45-90
90- 135
135- 180
180- 135
135- 90
90-45
45-0
0-45
45-90
90-135
135-180
180-135
135-90
90-45
45-0

1842-1845
1845-1849
1849-1852
1852-1856
1856-1859
1859-1862
1862-1866
1866-1870
1870-1874
1874-1878
1878-1882
1882-1886
1886- 1890
1890-1893
1893- 1897
1897-1900

1900-1904
1904-1908
1908-1911
1911-1915
1915-1918
1918-1921
1921-1925
1925-1929
1929-1933
1933-1937
1937- 1940
1940-1944
1944- 1947
1947- 1951
1951-1955
1955-1959

1959-1963
1963-1967
1967-1970
1970-1974
1974-1977
1977-1981
1981-1984
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