You are on page 1of 46

46

2004 46

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

........................................................................... 4
................................................................................................... 5
FIBO ................................................................................................................................. 7
TeleTRADE D.J. ............................................................................................................. 11
......................................................................................................................... 13
AUDUSD - Silver-channel ......................................................... 18
.................................................................................. 21
USD/JPY: 100.00 .................................................................................. 23
: " " ................................................................................................ 26
, 5 ............................................................................................................. 28
................................................................................................................ 30
: ................................................................................... 32
........................................................................................................................... 36
..................................................................................................................................................... 38
............................................................................................... 40
.......................................................................................................................... 43

FOREX MAGAZINE

www.alpari.org
(095) 29-111-29

.
"FOREX MAGAZINE" .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

12 18 VIAC.RU -

"
"
:
, .
, , , , , ..
, ,
, , ( ),
, , , .
, , , ,
.
, . ,
, .
:
() .
.
,
.
. , ,
.
. , , ,
, .
.
, .
. ,
, , .
.
, , , .
, . , ,
, .
() - (), .
,
( , ),
.
, . ,
.

?
- ?
?
?
?
?

" "
- 50%.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

FOREX Review

(msk)

06.12.2004

.-.

-0.4 %

+0.5 %

!
06.12.2004

.30

M/M

, , .
06.12.2004

.30

Y/Y

-0.9 %

0.0 %

. .
, , , .
06.12.2004

14.00

. M/M

-0.2 %

+0.5 %

. .
07.12.2004

13.00

. ZEW

13.

15.0

+1.9 %

+1.9 %

.
07.12.2004

16.30

. (.) Q/Q

3 .

. .
07.12.2004

16.30

. (.) Q/Q

3 .

+1.6 %

+1.7 %

. .
08.12.2004

.50

(.) Q/Q

3 .

+0.1 %

+0.2 %

. .
09.12.2004

.50

+1.44 .

+1.40 .

-1.9 %

+2.0 %

.
09.12.2004

8.00

. M/M

. .
09.12.2004

.30

-4.5 .

-4.8 .

-1.2 %

+0.5 %

.
09.12.2004

14.00

M/M

. .
09.12.2004

14.00

Y/Y

+2.5 %

+3.0 %

. .
09.12.2004

12.00

ECB

4.75 %

4.75 %

29.11-4.12

349

335

+0.5 %

+0.6 %

+1.7 %

+0.2 %

.
09.12.2004

15.00

09.12.2004

16.30

.
09.12.2004

18.00

M/M

.
10.12.2004

. .
10.12.2004

16.30

PPI M/M

. .
10.12.2004

16.30

PPI . . M/M

+0.3 %

+0.2 %

. .
10.12.2004

17.45

Michigan Sentiment (.)

92.8

95.3

www.forexreview.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004



. / , , . ?
,
.
. , . , ISM.
, 3 .
,
,
, . , , ,
,
, .
/ 1.3460.
.
/
1.9400. ,
,
1992 . ,
, .
, ,
. ,
. ,
,
/. -
: - .

.

2004 46

, , , .
/,
.
. , ,
:
, , /
. , , , 102.00.

.
112 200 . , .. .

, .
,
, . ,
,
. ,
.
,
, , 1.45 .


, , . ,
, -
. , ,
, ..

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

. - , , 1.35 /, ,
, .
, .
,
. , ZEW
(07.12) (09.12).
, , .
,
,
. - ,

, .
,
(09.12).

2004 46


. , .. , .
,
2 .
1.9600.
, , , ,

, LEI (07.12), 3 (08.12) (09.12).
- , , /.
, ,
. , ,
, . , 102.00,
101.25,
100.00.

ForexMagazine

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

FIBO

FOREX FIBO


. ,
,
. 82.00
81.34.
, .
3.9%,
3.7%.

(+5.1%), (+17.2%) (+6.3%).
2.0% ,
,
,
0.7%, 1968 .
,
, . ,
90.5 92.9 , ,
, .
0.6% (
+0.2%), 0.7%.

. 56.8
57.8 , 59.8 61.3.
(>250,000)

- 112,000. ,
5.4% 5.5%. 5,000,
104,000. ,

119,000 303,000 .
.

.

-,
, , ,
.
,
, ,
.
, ,
, ,
.
. - ,
,
. , , 10
4.25%
,
.
,

. -
, , . -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

FIBO

" "
,
.
, ,
.
, , .

,

81.00, 80.65
80.00,
78.19. ,
, 81.70, 82.20, 82.85.
84.60.
. ,
, 1.3400.
EZ .

0.9% ,
EZ 0.7%, EZ -13 -14
. EZ,
-
,
.

105 107 .
,
.
50.0 , .
,

2004 46

PMI 52.6 53.5 EZ.


() 2005
2.1% () 1.4%,
1.7%. , .
EZ 8.9%, 10.8%.

0.7%, ,
2.0%. . , ,
EZ,
, ,
. ,
, ,
,
. EZ , , :
1) ,
( ,
- , );
2) ,
, , 0.5 % 0.75% , ,
.
, , ,
- EZ
.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

FIBO

2004 46

EZ ZEW
. ,
,
. 1.3560
EUR/USD,
, 1.4140.
EUR/USD , ,
1.3630, 1.3710 1.3890.
EUR/USD 1.3280, 1.3180,
1.3000.
. (26.11) 1.8937

500 . GBP/USD .

2005 5.5%.
,
, "
2% 2006 ",
. , .

. (PMI)
55.0 56.7 53.5 56.3
.
Halifax 0.4% ..
9.1 . ,
2002 .
83,000 88,000
,
2000 . ,
.
, ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

FIBO

. , .
GBP/USD


, .
, ,
- ,
.
.

10

2004 46

USD/JPY 102.00.
GBP/JPY
GBP/USD.
GBP/USD
1.9200, 1.9070
, 1.8940. ,
GBP/USD

2.000. ,
1.9520, 1.9700 1.9830.

FIBO
Forex Magazine
http://www.fibo-forex.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

TeleTRADE D.J.

2004 46

TeleTRADE D.J.

, , - .

-
,
, , .
.
, . , ,

,
.

.
.
(Nationwide house price index) 1% 0.4% .
,
(
19%, 11%)
.
,
. HICP
2,2% 2004 , , , .

III 3.9%. , , .

11


.
2004
. PMI 50,4 52,4 .
PMI 2003
.
.
PMI , III 1,8% , 1,9-
.

. CIPS
manufacturing index 55 53 .

, /
1.9145 .

. 2004
0,7%.
0.6% 0.5%.
ISM,
2004 57,8 56,8 .
57,6 54,8 , nonfarm
payrolls .


. ,
. PPI
2004 0,7% 4,0%
2003 . 1.3390.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

TeleTRADE D.J.

2004 46

,
, ,
2,0% . , , ,
.

. 349,
.
0.5%
.

.
.
30 , .
,
. Nonfarm
payrolls 112,
+303 ( ). 80
1.3380, 1.3380
. , ,
5.4%, . , " , ".
06.12-10.12
,

,
.
,
- Teletrade D.J.
e-mail: analitics@trust-com.ru

12

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46


-
-
(www.forextrader.ru), ,

. -
, Forex.

FOREX
06-10.12.2004


FOREX, MSK

12:30-15:00
16:30-21:30

13:00-14:30
16:30-22:30

09:00-20:00

10:00-14:00
15:00-22:30

10:30-15:00
16:30-22:30

. . .
, , . , , .
FOMC 16 ,
, ,
.
, - ,
. - . ,
. ?
96,00. .
.
, FOMC 16 , , . ,

13

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

ForexTrader

EUR
:

12-30-13-00
, 1400 - . .
13 ZEW .
,
- . 16-30 -
, .

. .

.
- . . 10 14 . 15 - . . 16-30 ,
.
.
- - , , ? 10-45-12-30
. 16-30
( ) .
.
? . , .

14


: 1.2293-1,1570 ( , ).
4 ,
5 .
5 - 1.5300-1.67196. 4, 5
.

3
- 1,3800. 4 1,2293-1,1570.
- 5- 1,5300-1,7196.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

ForexTrader

2004 46

CHF


05.12.04.

3
1,0525-0,6318, 4
1,2688-1,3545, - 5 0,3095,
.


3 1,0428-0,8924, 4- (1,1650-1,1857) 5- - 0,8417.

CHF 05.12.04.

15

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

ForexTrader

GBP


3 2,0000 (!!!!!), 4 1.8150-1.7350 ( , !!!),
5-
2,1500-2,3500.

5 1,9734-2,0085 ( ,
).

GBP 05.12.04.

,
- 3 ,
97,00, - 4 108,20-112,20 (
). - 5 91,55-80,75 ().

16

JPY

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

ForexTrader

JPY 3
95,90. 4 104,05-108,45, - 5-
94,20.

2004 46

JPY
05.12.04.
,
FOREXTRADER.RU
E-mail: trader_karlo@mail.ru

- ,
FOREXTRADER http://www.forextrader.ru/ .

17

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

2004 46

- Silver-channel.
. silver@viac.ru

18

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

19

2004 46

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

2004 46

- ( ):
Silver-channel
Silver-channel Daily
!
Silver-channel Weekly
AlexSilver
CFD
www.viac.ru
Silver-channel
- " Silver-channel"
Silver-channel , .
. .

20

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46


, . ,
, . , , , . , .
, , , , ,
. ,
. , .
, 450.00 ,
.

.
. ,
. . up-
. , 464.00.

21

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

.
, , MACD
, . 445.00 ,
. .
450-453.00, 446.60, 464.00.

!
:
E-mail: eduard@viac.ru
www.viac.ru

22

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

USD/JPY: 100.00

USD/JPY: 100.00
USD/JPY "" , . USD/JPY, .
" USD/JPY" FOREX MAGAZINE, " " www.VIAC.ru.
- , .

USD/JPY -
USD/JPY - .
,
. USD/JPY ( , ), ""
, , , USD/
JPY - 100-101 .


.
. , ,
"" .

23

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

USD/JPY: 100.00

USD/JPY ( )
103.40, , . ,
, 103.60-75,
103.40 / . 103.40 ,
USD/JPY
102-.
"" . 102.20 101.85.
- 2000 101.24 100.00.
, 105.20,
1995 - (
). 100.00-101.24 ,
, - 103.40.
105.20 ( 103.40-104.00), ,
- ,
.
-
. ,
/
.

24

103.40-70
105.20
107.00-30
108.75

:

,


- 2004

2004

101.85102.20
101.25
100.00,
96.00-97.00
79.80

:

,

2000,
( )

-
1995
,
19 1995

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

USD/JPY: 100.00

2004 46

FOREX MAGAZINE
:
VIAC.ru
vmn@viac.ru
http://www.viac.ru

25

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

: " "

, , . .
Statil, .
130000 .
,
75000
. , , ,
200000

"".

.
,
,
.
, , ,
. ,
, 26
,
. ""
.
NOAA
- -

26

2004 46

. , - , , 70% , .
, 21.7 $7.620 .


5.1 $1.3927
. ,
.
.
EIA, 18:30 ., ,
26 , 900000
293.3 .
.

9.8 . , , , .
3 . 205.7 .
, 3.7 . .
, 2.3 . 117.9 .
. -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

: " "

, .
,
17.6 . ,
, . ,
1 . 49.9 . , 8.2 .
, . 6.4 . ,
.
, 26 , ,
10.1 . . ,
, 347000
, 301000 .
75000
.
15.6 . ,
94%.
. , .
, - . ,
, , . .
, ,
.
,
, , .
,
.
WTI $3.64 $45.49 , -
24 2001.,
$3.96, 11 .

27

2004 46

. ,
Nymex WTI
71 $42.54 ,
31 .
IPE "" 79
$39.36 , 29 .
, , - ,
. .
$41.00 -
WTI . ,
, ,
, , .

, .


. ,
. -,
, , . -,
,
, .
, , , " " .

$41.00-$50.00 .
,
. $40.00 .

E-mail: bauer@viac.ru

Forex Magazine
www.alpari.org

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, 5

2004 46

, 5

, , .

-, ; ;
,
.
,
: ,
.
, ,
, ,
.
, , "-" ( ),
"-" ( ).
, ,
: , ,
, , " " .
, , "" ,
"", "".
, ,
, "". , , ,
"".
,
, , -

28

"" ,
-.
, ?
, , , .
,
.
" , .
, , .
.
, , ,
.
, .

: , .
,
: , .
, , .

, .
. .
, , -
! , .
,
, . , , . -
, .
, .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, 5

2004 46

, , , .
, , ,
. , .
."
, , ...
, , . . .
, " - " , , .
http://www.mabico.ru
, .

29

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46


www.bloomberg.com


"Bloomberg News"
- - - ,

. ,
, .
,
, , . 10
- ,
.

. ,
.
100 . $,
,
.
, , .
, , , , , .

. ,
, .

,
. -
-
. , .

30

" , ,
",
. ", ,
, , ".
, .
,
,
. .
. .

. ?
, . , " " - , - .

. , , ,
.

, , ,
, . 10 -
, .

. -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004


.
. , , , . ,
.
, ,
, ,
, , , , , , , , , .
, ,
,
, ?

.
", - , , , , , ",
,
. " -
".

2004 46


, , ,
.
1865 ,
, , , , .
, . ,
1873 1924 .
. ,
, , ,
. ,
.
, ,
, ,
.
Forex Magazine
www.bloomberg.com


, .
1992 ,
, , , . -
.

. , ,
1800-.
"",
, . ,
, .

31

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

:

. -
,
. -.


.
" "
2003., 50
.

, , ,
. , "McDonald's", "Dell", "Federal
Express" "Wall-Mart", ,
, .
,
. , .
,
:

,
, ,
?

, , ,
?

32

www.brettsteenbarger.com
, ,
.
, , - .

, 64 . , - , .
, . , ,
( ), .
(
, )
.
, ,
"", ,
. , ,
: ,
, ,
.
, ,
- - .
, . , , , ,
, . ,

.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

" " (2002.),



. , ,
, ,
.
, ,
,
.

? ,
. . - : , , ,
. ,
.
- A, B, n, ,
..
, , , ,

.
,
.
, , ,
.
, .
, , ?
? ,

?
,
,
. , ,

33

2004 46

.

,
, , .
,
,
. , , !

, - .
.
, , , . ,
-, , - ,
. , ,
- . , , , . ,
, . / . , , , -
, .
30 , , . , , ,
, .

, ,
, !
. -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

, .
, ;
, , ; , . ,
, , ,
. ,
, . , ,
. . , .
- , . , , ,
.
, , , : ,
, (Globex) . -,
/

- .
, , .

. , , , " "
. , , , ,
.
, "

34

2004 46

",
. ,
. , , , .
() , . ,
. ,
. , ,
.
, ,
, .
, , ? , , !
, , , .
,
.
,
. , ,
,
. ,

. , ,
, .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

, ,
. ,
:
.
, , , . ,

.
-
,
. ,
,
, . , ,

.
, , ,
,
.

, .
, ,
. , , , , .
Forex Magazine
www.brettsteenbarger.com

35

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46




" - - ".
, ,
.
, - .
,
,
, . ,

. , . , . .
-, , -
, . ,
, , -, , .
, .
, , , . , , .
, ,
. , , . ,
. ,
,
, , "". , , ,
,
.

36

www.hardrightedge.com
, , , , , , . , , - , . . , ,
, , .
,
, .
. -

, . -, , -
,
. ,

, , . . ,
- , . , .
, , . ,
.
. ,
. .
.
. , , , . , . , , , , - . , ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

. ,

. ,
.
, , .
, .
, , ,
.
, ,
,
.
. ,
.
, - -
, . , , - .
.
,
, ,
, , ,
.
Forex Magazine
www.hardrightedge.com

37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

www.chartfilter.com
.

,
.


;
- .


( ).
( ). , , (
), -

38

( ), . .

, : .
, .
.
,
.
, ,
.
10- (
)
.
, 10 , .
, 10 , .
,
.
,
.
,
.

, , ,
, 10 .
, . -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

,
, , 10 . .

,
10
. ,
,
. ,
.

,
,
.

2004 46

,
.
, ;
- .

.
.
, .
Forex Magazine
www.chartfilter.com

, ,
, .
- ,
.


,
, ,

, .


, . , , ,
.

-

39

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46


www.esignal.com


, . ,
MACD
. 300 , 298 .
, .

, ,
,
,
.
. 900 , 800 . ,
.
, "n", "n" . ,
, , , , .

1
. ,
,
() ,
().
,
, .


(MA), , MA 13 ,
, MA 7, ,
,
. , , MA
13 ,
, ""
, .

? ,
. ,
.
, , . ! - !

5- ES
MA 13 ,
MA 13 ,

, ?
,
3.

40

1 2, ,
, , .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46


13EMA. 21 2 .

2
, ,
,
. ,
. ,
, -
- , , , . ,
,
, .
,

4
4 , . . , 13EMA , . , 13EMA, , .
, , , .
, ,
13EMA, . ,
, .
,
, .

41

, :
1. 13EMA.
2. 13EMA
( ).

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

3.
3 .
, , .
,
,
, MACD .

2004 46

,
9EMA 55EMA, 1
270 .
. ,
,
.
Forex Magazine
www.esignal.com

5
5 , .
MACD ,

13EMA,
ADX. , 13EMA , ADX , RSI
, MACD .
2 ,
.

42

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46




. , ,

. ,
,
, , , .

,
. ,
,
,
, .
,
. , ,
,
,
, . .

www.ensignsoftware.com
.
. , . , , , ,
.
"Ensign Windows"
"Auto Trends",
.

.
.
"Auto Trends" ,
.


,


, .

43

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004


, ,
.
.


,
.

2004 46

1x1 .

"Auto Trends"
, , .

50%- ( )
,
.

"Gann 1x1"
1x1 .

44


,
, .
, . , , , . ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

. ,
.
, , , .

2004 46


. - 38.2%, 50% 61.8%.

.
, 161.8%.

. , , ,
.

.

""

.
, .
"" , , . .
,
. , . .

, .

45

,
,
. , ,
. ,
,
5 . ,
, "4".

, ,
, .
. ,
, , 5 ,
3 .
. 5
, 3 . ,
,
.
, -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

2004 46

. .


. : 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55.
,
. . .
, .
, 5, 8 13 . ,
, . , 8
, 4 , 5.
, -
, 6
.

, .
Forex Magazine
www.ensignsoftware.com

46

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004

You might also like