1

2005 51/2

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 2005 51/2

........................................................................... 4
FIBO ................................................................................................................................. 5
. Mabico ................................................................................ 10
. FOREXTRADER .............................................................................. 12
EUR/USD 17.01.2005 ................................................................................................................ 17
AUDUSD - Silver-channel ......................................................... 21
.................................................................................. 24
USD/JPY ? ............................................................................ 26
USD/JPY: 100.00? ............................................................................... 31
................................................................................................................. 33
...................................................................................... 35
: ......................................................................................................... 37
(ADXR) ........................................................................................... 42
........................................................................................................................................... 44
............................................................................................................... 45
............................................................................................................................................. 49

FOREX MAGAZINE

www.alpari.org
(095) 29-111-29

.
"FOREX MAGAZINE" .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 "" FSA ()
""
"" FSA. , "", , ,
. FSA ""?
, "" ,
2005 51/2
Alpari UK . FSA.
FSA. , , FSA .
. ("Financial Service
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: www.alpari.org

: (095) 29-111-29, 250-95-00

3
E-mail:
info@alpari.org

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 2005 51/2

FOREX Review

(msk)

17.01.2005

+1.5 %

+1.5 %

-0.5 %

+0.5 %

.
18.01.2005

.30

HICP Y/Y

.
18.01.2005

13.00

M/M

, .
. ( )
.
18.01.2005

13.00

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+1.0 %

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.
. ,
18.01.2005

16.30

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18.01.2005

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, .
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19.01.2005

16.30

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1.771 .

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.
19.01.2005

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367

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29.

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20.01.2005

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.
20.01.2005

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.
20.01.2005

16.30

10-15.01

.
20.01.2005

18.00

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.
20.01.2005

20.00

.
21.01.2005

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. , .
Y/Y

+6.1 %

+5.5 %

. , .
21.01.2005

17.45

Michigan Sentiment (.)

97.1

98.5

www.forexreview.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 2005 51/2

FIBO

FOREX FIBO

,
. ,
82.00,
83.00. , , , -

. .
60.3 . ,
53.5-54.0 . 2.3%,
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, , ,

.
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,
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.
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0.4%). 2004 8.0%,
1999 , 8.5%.

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2004 .
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.
.
,
, 3.5%,
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, . 40
48 .
.


2005 ,
3.5-4.0%. , ,
. .
,
.
- , ,
,
.
, , ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 FIBO

.
,
,
, .

,
" " , . .
, ,
.
.
84.10/15
84.95/85.25, Fibonacci retracement
92.30 90.60 80.40.
, .

" "
. , .

82.00, 81.60
80.95.
. , 2.0%. ,
.., , .
,
EZ.

11.9 . 10.2 .

2005 51/2

2003 , 2004 12.6 . . 12.5 . , 0.4% , - 1.8%. 8.5 . , 4.9 . 6.6

. .

1.08 . 1.84 . .

ZEW,
26.9
14.4 . ,


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,

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,
, . , EZ
EUR/USD 1.3050.
,
( . )
.
1.7%, 0.4% . ,

. , ,

,
.

2004 ,
, 2003

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 FIBO

2005 51/2

. 2005
1.3-1.5%. , 2004
3.9%,
3.0%,
.
EZ , , .
,

, EZ.
,
EZ, . EZ ,
.
, .
EUR/USD 1.3026 1.2830,
50% Fibonacci retracement 1.1988 1.3667.
EUR/USD 1.3140,
1.3290, 1.3340.
" " ,
1.3410. 1.3020, 1.2940,
1.2830. 1.2830 EUR/USD
1.2600.
.
1.8940 ,
1.8640. GBP/USD
,

1.8270.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 FIBO

2005 51/2

0.4%
.
2.9% 3.5%
. 0.1%
, .
0.2%. , , ,
.

GBP/USD 1.8580-1.8990.


1.9100 1.9180,
GBP/USD. 1.8580 GBP/USD
1.8430 1.8270, 61.8%
Fibonacci retracement 1.7480 1.9556.

1.41%
.
.
,
, .
4.75%.
1.1% 1.5%.

.

GBP/USD
1.8580, 1.8430 1.8270, , 1.8990/900, 1.9100
1.9180.

,
,
4.6 . 5.0 .
. , 11 2004 53.2 . ,
2003 47.4 .
.
,
, , .

. , . , . ,

., ,
,
,
.

. "" , , 101.80 105.10
.
.
3.5 ,
5.5 .

. 30
18.2, . ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 FIBO

50, .
, 7,65 . , .
(
), ,

. ,
1.8% , 49.1% ,
. 19.3% 1.20 . , 17 . 35.2% 753,2 . , ,
. 13.4% 4.92 .
. 12 . 31.2% 4.16. , . ,

, .
19.9%,
, 3.5%,
3.1% .
15.1%. ,
,
" ".

2005 51/2

1.9%
. 10 , .

, .
,

, USD/
JPY, 101.79, .

.

.
, .
USD/JPY
101.80 ,
100 .
USD/JPY 103.00
,
105.00 .

FIBO
Forex Magazine
http://www.fibo-forex.ru

,
.
1.7%, 15%, .
15 , 4.5%.
-

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 . Mabico

2005 51/2

.
Mabico
, , .
, . , .
,
.

, the Institute for Supply
Management's, 58.6 57.8 58.3.
1 ,
ICSC-UBS 0.2% 2.7
: 1 , ICSC-UBS
4.6% 2004 .
1 , Redbook 5.2%,
Redbook 0.2% . 3.7%, +8.0% /.

- 157 .
, 5,4%.
10-15 , , ,
, , 1,3.

.

10

"
", - ,
, .
,
, , , . -
.
,
.
$60,3 .
,
$60,3 ., 7,7% , $56,0 .
($55,5 . ). $60 .
, ,

. Reuters, , $54,0 .

. 1,3%
, $155,8 .

.
, $16,6 .
$16,8 . .
$19,6
., $19,7 . .

2,3% , $95,6 .,
. -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 . Mabico

2005 51/2

- $561,3 .,
2003 . 2003 .
$496,5 .
-
. , .
. ,
, , . ,
.
: 1,3
. , 1,26 . 1,24.
, ,
,
,
, www.mabico.ru.
,
"".
, .
www. Mabico.ru

Forex Magazine

11

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 2005 51/2

. FOREXTRADER

-
-
(www.forextrader.ru), ,

. -
, Forex.

FOREX
17-21.01.2005

FOREX, MSK

08:00-15:00
12:30-15:00
16:30-22:00

10:00-12:00
12:30-15:00
16:30-22:30

13:00-15:00
16:30-22:30

10:45-15:00
17:30-22:30

. ,
. 250 ,
, .
, - 100,00,
, , , - .
, -
, .
- ,
FOREXTRADER http://www.forextrader.ru/ .

12

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 ForexTrader

2005 51/2

EUR
:

, .
08-00 -
. 12-30 , 13-00 -
EZ, 16-30 NY Fed Empire State manufacturing
index .
09-00 BoJ

. 10-00 , 12-30
. 16-30 .
.
,

.
-13-00 - , 16-30 -
( ), 18 , 22-00 ().

: 1.2420-1,1695.
1,3790-1,4000 . 4 ,
5 . 5 - 1.55951.7545.

- 10-45 1230 . 17-45 - Michigan

sentiment index .

4 1,2720-1,2415. - 5 1,4195-1,4855.

13

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 ForexTrader

2005 51/2

CHF

16.01.05.

4 1,27451,4135, - 5 0,3054.

4 1,2130-1,2250 -
5 1,0588-0,9859.

CHF 16.01.05.

14

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 2005 51/2

ForexTrader

GBP

4 1.8245
-1.7465. - 5
2,1615-2,3755.

, , . 3
1,8225-1,7530.

JPY

GBP 16.01.05.

15

, , 3
, 96,25.
. 4 109,05-117,60.
- 5 89,45-77,87.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 ForexTrader

JPY 5 100,00-96,22.

2005 51/2

JPY 26.01.05
,
FOREXTRADER.RU
E-mail: trader_karlo@mail.ru

16

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 2005 51/2

EUR/USD 17.01.2005

17 2005
(A_Vlad) www.viac.ru

( 1)

, ,
, . .

17

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 EUR/USD 17.01.2005

2005 51/2

( 2)

,
60,3 . , ,
. , 10 11 , ,
$53 .
U3 1.3296, LB.
,
D2, .
, ,
, .
, . , 2009
, . ,
. D3 1.3050, LB.
,
, .
, .
, .

18

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 EUR/USD 17.01.2005

2005 51/2

( 3)

1.
2.
3.
4.

UP
LB 1.3162 U3 1.3293
DOWN
LB 1.3162 D3 1.3030
U3 1,3375 U4 1,3375
D3 1,3030 D4 1,2949

,
, .
, ,
, ,
1,3020. 1,3020/1,3000 ,
1,2850.

19

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 EUR/USD 17.01.2005

2005 51/2

,
. , ,
.
, ,
1,2860. 1,3190.
, ,
, .. 20
.

, www.viac.ru
. ,
A_Vlad, _Vlad,
.
,
e-mail: a_vlad@viac.ru

20

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

21

2005 51/2

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

22

2005 51/2

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

AUDUSD - Silver-channel

2005 51/2

" 11 ,
"
Silver-channel
Silver-channel Daily
Silver-channel Weekly
!
CFD
AlexSilver
Silver-channel
www.viac.ru
- " Silver-channel"
Silver-channel , .
. .

23

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 51/2

,
.
,
,
$60.3 . $56 . ,

. ,
,
82.00 ,
,
. , 430.00, .
, ,

, . .
,
.

. ,
. ,
. ,
,
, , , , .

.
, ,
.

24

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 51/2

,

400.00.
,
,

, .
,
, -

.
, .

430,
.

, .
.
!
:
E-mail: eduard@viac.ru
www.viac.ru

25

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 2005 51/2

USD/JPY ?

USD/JPY
USD/JPY ?
USD/JPY Crude Light, , ,
Dow Jones Nikkei. , . , .
USD/JPY .
" USD/JPY"
FOREX MAGAZINE " - "
www.VIAC.ru.
- , .

USD/JPY: ?
- . USD/JPY
( ) 2004 , ,
( USD/JPY). : -
/ . : , .

26

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 USD/JPY

2005 51/2

.
. , 49.00-50.50 (55.50). , , USD/JPY,
. USD/JPY:
( ), .
.
( ), - .
, ,
( )
100.00-101.25.

: USD/JPY
USD/JPY ( ) ,
- .. . ? -
, . - ( USD/JPY) , -
,
. .
. ? , ,
, ( ),
USD/JPY . USD/JPY .

27

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 USD/JPY

2005 51/2

USD/JPY ?

28

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 USD/JPY

2005 51/2

5- 420.00-425.00, 35-
-. USD/JPY
. ,
. ,
. (. ),
115.00 , , , USD/JPY ().

Nikkei Dow Jones USD/JPY

Nikkei , ..
11400-11600 12000-12300. , ,
USD/JPY 100.00. Nikkei 11000 () USD/JPY 5 ( 2000 ).

29

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 USD/JPY

2005 51/2

Dow Jones ,
( ). 10430-10500 10700-10800, USD/JPY. 10400
USD/JPY.

FOREX MAGAZINE
:
VIAC.ru
http://www.viac.ru/
,
: vmn@viac.ru

30

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 2005 51/2

USD/JPY: 100.00?

USD/JPY: 100.00?
USD/JPY. ,
, , .
USD/JPY .
" USD/JPY" FOREX MAGAZINE, " " www.VIAC.ru.
- , .

USD/JPY: ?
.
105.00-20 , .
102.20-60 "" . , 102.00
102.03, ,
. "" 4-5 (102.20-50) 97.00-97.50 - .

101.85 ( 101.80).
101.24, 2000 , 100.00. 97.00-98.00
, .
102.20-50, 100-150 . , , 101.80.
102.50-104.50.
, , .

102.50
104.00
105.20
106.20

31

.

.

( ).
.

101.80,
102.00
101.25
100.00
96.80-97.50
96.00,97.00

:

.
2000,
( ).

;
1995
FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 USD/JPY: 100.00?

2005 51/2

FOREX MAGAZINE
:
VIAC.ru
http://www.viac.ru/
,
: vmn@viac.ru

32

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 51/2

www.bloomberg.com

"Bloomberg News"
" ?"
, ,
, - .
, , .
,
26 ,
160.000 - . , , -.
,
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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

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2005 51/2

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.
Forex Magazine
www.bloomberg.com

, , ,
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,
. , ,
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.
,
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34

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 51/2

www.bloomberg.com

"Bloomberg News"
" " . , 10- ,
.
,
. , , , , 20 .
?
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35

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

, , .
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. ,
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.

2005 51/2

, ,
" ". , , ,
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www.bloomberg.com

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, .

, .

, ,
.
,
.
", , , 2005.", "Action Economics" .


, .
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36

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 51/2

:
www.optionetics.com
" -",
.
,
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,

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

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2005 51/2

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

, - Dow Industrials,
Nasdaq 100 S&P 500 , Philadelphia Banking Index, Philadelphia Semiconductor
Index, the AMEX Biotechnology Index The Dow
Transportation Index.
.
: ?
: , , , . 2003 "America West Airlines" , .
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2005 51/2

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 51/2

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40

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

. ,

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2005 51/2

"" ,
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,
, .
, , .
"ConocoPhillips"
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41

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 (ADXR)

2005 51/2

(ADXR)
www.linnsoft.com
ADXR ADX ADX.
ADXR (+DI -DI). ADXR , ,
. , ADXR ,
, , .
ADXR, ADXR DI+, DI- .
:
ADXR> DIMINUS DIPLUS> DIMINUS ADXR> ADXR.1

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:
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DI- .

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.
:

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n ), .
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, ADX.
, ADX: ,
.

42

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

 (ADXR)

2005 51/2

DX Period - ,

ADXR Interval - , ADX ADX n

, ADXR

Smoothing Period - , ,
(DX)
ADX

Line Color - ADXR

, ,
ADXR , . ,
"" "" .
"ctrl".
ADXR "" "" "shift".
Forex Magazine
www.linnsoft.com

43

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 51/2

www.lambertganneducators.com
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Forex Magazine
www.lambertganneducators.com

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 51/2

, ,

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45

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

, .

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