You are on page 1of 50

1

2005 58/9

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

"" "" "". . ............................................................... 3


........................................................................... 5
TeleTRADE D.J. ............................................................................................................... 6
. NFP, ?....................................................... 9
.................................................................... 11
. ForexTrader ..................................................................... 13
ISIG Ltd ................................................................................................................... 18
Dow Jones Nikkei USD/JPY .............................................. 23
USD/JPY: ............................................................................................. 27
- .............................................................................................. 30
: ...................................................................................... 32
20 ............................................................................... 36
........................................................................................................... 44
.................................................................................................................................. 47
(TDI) ......................................................................................................... 49

FOREX MAGAZINE

www.alpari.org
(095) 29-111-29

.
"FOREX MAGAZINE" .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

"" "" "". .

"" "" "". .


I- "" "". : "FOREX", "US Stocks", "Futures". ,
- $1000, $500 $300 .
,
. http://www.alpari.org/ru/contest/
rules_demo.php.
:

" - FOREX"
C

np

426050 Panda

RUSSIAN FEDERATION,
St. Peterburg

5653.00 $1000

422654 Zema

RUSSIAN FEDERATION,
Astrahan

5611.53 $500

426239 Mak

RUSSIAN FEDERATION,
Kazan

5342.79 $300

" - Futures"
C

np

RUSSIAN
5324.00 $1000
FEDERATION, Korolev

424078

ivi

427036

Kot

425506 petumaxi

RUSSIAN
FEDERATION,
Novosibirsk

4625.82 $500

BELARUS, Minsk

4499.00 $300

. ""
() .

. ""
() .

" - US Stocks"

""

C
1
2
3

425205 Mark

RUSSIAN FEDERATION,
Samara

424077

RUSSIAN FEDERATION,
Korolev

ivi

426828 margo

GERMANY, Augsburg

424076 424077 424078

ivi

426050 426051 426052

Panda

423776 423777 423778

Ullo

Russian Federation, Kazan

1.648186 $300

494.75 $500

425612 425613 425614

Lover

Russian Federation, Kazan

1.289703 $200

425504 425505 425506 petumaxi

449.76 $300

423050 423051 423052

7
8

np

735.90 $1000

. ""
() .

,
Russian Federation, Korolev


2.478828 $1000

Russian Federation, St. Peterburg 2.052996 $500

Belarus, Minsk

1.192312 $200

Fanatic

Russian Federation, Barnaul

0.951903 $200

424439 424440 424441

Semen

Portugal, Gafanha Do Carmo

0.938168 $200

423533 423534 423535

HXDB

Russian Federation, Kazan

0.921521 $200

426302 426303 426304

samo

Russian Federation, Mytishi

0.899777 $200

10

425099 425100 425101 Student

Russian Federation, Dimitrovgrad 0.894336 $200

8
. , .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

"" "" "". .

2005 58/9

, , , ""

. (!) 8200 !
, ""
.
"",
2005
. ,
"" - "MAZDA 6".
:
http://www.alpari.org/ru/contest/rules_real.php
!

. (095) 250-95-00, 250-95-05.
e-mail: info@alpari-idc.ru.
: www.alpari-idc.ru.
""

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

FOREX Review

(msk)

+3.1

+6.0

05.03

+0.5 %

-0.5 %

07/03/2005

23.00

Consumer credit

08/03/2005

16.55

Redbook

09/03/2005

12.30 M/M

09/03/2005

12.30 Y/Y

+0.3 %

0.0 %

09/03/2005

12.30

-4.4 .

-4.7 .

09/03/2005

14.00 M/M

+1.2 %

-0.5 %

09/03/2005

14.00 Y/Y

+0.9 %

+0.5 %

09/03/2005

22.00

10/03/2005
10/03/2005

8.00

. M/M

15.00

-8.8 %

+3.0 %

4.75 %

4.75 %

, , Paul Tucker,
, 25 .
, CPI 2006 , , 2%
. , 50 ,
4.75% . ,
10/03/2005

16.30

28.02-5.03

310,000

310,000

10/03/2005

18.00

M/M

+0.4 %

+0.6 %

11/03/2005

16.30

-56.4 .

-56.0 .

,
. ,

. ,
,
11/03/2005

10.00

CPI . M/M

0.4%

0.4%

11/03/2005

10.00

CPI . Y/Y

1.8%

1.8%

11/03/2005

10.00

HICP . Y/Y

1.7%

1.7%

M/M
Q/Q
Y/Y

www.forexreview.ru
Forex Magazine

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

TeleTRADE D.J.

2005 58/9

TeleTRADE D.J.

,
.
USD

.
, IV

, . 4
0.1% . 1.5%.

, .
. . , , ", -, ",
, " ". " ",
, .
.
, , , 26 2005 , 310.000
311.000 . (ISM) 2005 59,8 59,2 .

Nonfarm Payrolls . .

262 132. 300 , .


EUR
, .
IV , .
2004
0,2% 1,6% - .
Eurostat, 2004
2,0%. ,
.
0.6% , . 2004 1.9%,
2%.
Eurostat ,
" "
.
0.6%,
3.9%,
- 3.8%.
2005 98,8 100,8
. ,
,
0,2 0,4
0,39 .

2005 . PMI ,
, 51,90 . -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

TeleTRADE D.J.

2005 .
(PMI), , 2005 53,0
53,4 2004 .
2%. . . -
, .
:

" ,
";

" ";

" 3 -
, ";

" ";

" -
".


2005 1,2-2,0%
1,4-2,4%. 2006
1,6-2,6% 1,7-2,7% .
EUR/USD
200 ,
$1.3085.

2005 58/9

GBP

, GBP/USD
, EUR/USD. , 120 $1.9085, $1.9125.
JPY
,

,
.
2005 ,

.
2,1% 1,7%.
,
2.2% .
2005
, .
2,6% 2005 2004 .
, , . , 2005 .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

TeleTRADE D.J.

4,5%
4,4%, .
Y104.00,

.
07.03 - 11.03
, ,

.
.
,
,

.
,
, , .
,
,
- . --

2005 58/9

.
, 31
,
.

.
, .


" ", .

- . ,
, ,
4.75%.
,
-
Teletrade D.J.
e-mail: analitics@trust-com.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

. NFP, ?

2005 58/9

. NFP, ?
MaBico.

:

NFP,
,
.
,
, : , +210 000, +262 000.
. , ISM
400 000.
, , , ,
, , ,
:
ABN, BOA: +225K
Deutsche Bank: +275K
Mizuho: +225K
Lehman Bros: +200
Citibank: +300K
CIBC: +240K
Daiwa Securities CSFB: +250K
Greenwich +250K +230K
Merrill Lynch: +240K
HSBC: +300K +200K
Goldman Sachc: + 250,000 +200,000
, ,
5.3%, 5.4% 5.2%.

, 2 (!) .
, , ,
, .
,
, +0.3%, 0.0%. +0.2% +0.3%.
,
, ,
.
, , ,
/
160 .
- , , .
, " ",
, , ,
,
sell off.
, , " ".

, ; - ,
-
.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

. NFP, ?

2005 58/9

, ,

, , - .
, ,
" "... " ",
, ""
.
, ,
, .
,
www.mabico.ru , "" http://www.mabico.ru/ru/news/stats/.
.

http://www.mabico.ru
, .

10

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9


MONUMENT SECURITIES:
,
Monument Securities

, 4 /DJ FOREX/ -- 9-10


,
- . ,
,
,
- 25 ,
, .
,
- 4,75% ,

. - , ,
, ,

, , , 5 ,
.

- .
, . ,
, - . , , ,
. ,

,
, ,

, .

11



,
2,0% . ,
. ,
,
. , ,

, , . ,
. . . ,
,
. . ,
.

, .
, , ,
,
- 1997 .
.
. , , .
. , .
, ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

,

. ,
,
, . ,
, , .
,
.
, ,
, . ,
. . ,
,
. , -
.
,
,
. ,
, -
. -
.
Dow Jones Newswires
www.djforex.ru
Forex Magazine

12

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

. ForexTrader


- -
(www.forextrader.ru),
,

. -
, Forex.

FOREX
07-11.03.2005


FOREX, MSK

10:00-15:00
16-30-23-30

10:00-15:00
16:30-22:00

10:00-16:00
16:30-23:00

10:00-15:00
16:30-22:30

". , ". . . 1,3084 . ,


1,3100, .
, ,
. ? ! , , FOREX. -
,
210000. 300000 400000. ,
"", , , .
, ""
. (Nonfarm
payrolls) +262000, .
, , ,
. , -
, .
: ???? ,
. , .
. 1,3100 ,
. , .
- . ,
, .
, .

13

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

ForexTrader

EUR

, 23

. ,

.

. , 8 .
10-00 , 12-30
14-00- .
- 01-00 -
, NZD. 10 -
. 15 - BoE. 16-30
-18-00 .

, 4 , : 1.2420-1,1685
1,1000. 4 , 5 .
5 - 1.5585-1.7560.

- 10-00-12-00 - EZ.
16-30 , - ?

: 4 1,2445.
5- - 1,3770-1,4415.
- .

14

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ForexTrader

2005 58/9

CHF

06.03.05.


4
1,2385-1,2890, - 5
0,3132. ,
3 1,0445
4 .

. 5
1,2385-1,2890.

CHF 06.03.05.

15

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

ForexTrader

GBP

, 4 1.8195 -1.7439 1,6545.


- 5
2,1605-2,3700.

-
4 1,8285-50,
.

JPY

GBP 06.03.05.

16

, , 3 , 96,00.
.
4 109,00-117,60. - 5
89,35-77,25.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ForexTrader

JPY
.

2005 58/9

JPY 06.03.05.
,
FOREXTRADER.RU
E-mail: trader_karlo@mail.ru

- ,
FOREXTRADER http://www.forextrader.ru/ .

17

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

ISIG Ltd


International Service Invest Group Ltd
1. AUD, Weekly

AUDUSD 5-
III
.
5 III - 0.8340.

AUD, Daily

5
. 4 , ,
,

5.

18

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ISIG Ltd

2005 58/9

AUD, 240 min


4 .
a-b-c-d-e.
5 0.8170-0.8260.
*
EURUSD, GBPUSD USDCAD
57 .

2.EUR, Daily

EURUSD

5 .
5 . 4

, 50-61.8%
3. , ,
.
- 1.3660->1.3880.

19

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ISIG Ltd

2005 58/9

EUR, 240


.
, - 1.3070,
31.8% .

3.GBP, Daily

5
. 4
50-61.8 % 3 .
5
5
1.9615.

20

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ISIG Ltd

2005 58/9

GBP, 240 min




.

5.

1.8970,

31.8%
.

4.CAD, Daily

5
. 4
50
% 3 5,
1.14501.1180

21

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ISIG Ltd

2005 58/9

CAD, 240 min



( A-B-C )
4 .

1.2425-1.2580 ,
4

.


1 2,

, 61.8%
1.
3 - 1.2150.
International Service Invest Group Ltd.
33 Jabotinsky St., Twin Tower 1,
Ramat-Gan 52511, Israel
www.isig-trade.ru
E-mail : admin@isig-trade.com

22

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

Dow Jones Nikkei USD/JPY

2005 58/9

USD/JPY
Dow Jones Nikkei USD/JPY
USD/JPY , ,
Dow Jones Nikkei.
, . ,

. USD/JPY .
" USD/JPY"
FOREX MAGAZINE " - "
www.VIAC.ru.
- , .

Dow Jones Nikkei ?


, USD/JPY, . Dow Jones Nikkei . 52- , . ,
, .
, , . USD/JPY
, .
- .

23

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

Dow Jones Nikkei USD/JPY

24

2005 58/9

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

Dow Jones Nikkei USD/JPY

2005 58/9

, : USD/JPY?
. 84.0085.00 , .
80.50-81.00. ,
. "" (CAD, JPY) ,
, .

25

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

Dow Jones Nikkei USD/JPY

2005 58/9

, : ?
, 430 ,
. ? . ,
, USD/JPY
. USD/JPY, ,
105-.

FOREX MAGAZINE
:
VIAC.ru
http://www.viac.ru/
,
: vmn@viac.ru

26

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

USD/JPY:

USD/JPY:

USD/JPY. ,
, , .
USD/JPY .
" USD/JPY" FOREX MAGAZINE, " - "
www.VIAC.ru.
- , .

USD/JPY:
106-, 104.00. 200 , 102.00,
102.00-104.00. 106.00, 106.90
, 1995. 2004.,
USD/JPY , .
, 106.50-70,
.
(106.85) (107.30) .
109.00. 2002-2003 .
, 104.30-40.
, 2005. 103.30, .
104.00-103.80.
. 102.70 ( ).
,
, .

105.60
106.00-20
107.30
108.90

27





2002-2003

104.30-40
103.80104.10
102.80
101.70

:


,


2005

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

USD/JPY:

28

2005 58/9

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

USD/JPY:

2005 58/9

FOREX MAGAZINE
:
VIAC.ru
http://www.viac.ru/
,
: vmn@viac.ru

29

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

-
www.bloomberg.com


"Bloomberg News"
, , , ,
.
"Asian Bellagio group", "European Bellagio group", 1960- .
, , - ,
, .
, , 1.1 . $
. , ,
, ,
.
"" ,
.
- "", ,
.
, , , , . ,

" ".
1996.,
. ,
.

30


, , ,

, .
,
, , , .
.
,
.
, , 34% .
,
,
.
. , , .
,
, . , .

" " 1997. , ,
. ,
.
, . . ,
. -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

. , , , , .
? ,
,
. , .
, ,
, .
,
, .

2005 58/9

- (ASEAN) 10
- (APEC), 21 ?
, , .
.
, , .
, , , ,
.
Forex Magazine
www.bloomberg.com


, . , , .

.
, ,
, . ,
, , .
"Asian
Bellagio group"
,
, . , ,
.
. -

31

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

:

www.cibcwm.com

-

. , .
-
() , US$, ""
, .


US$,
, 2004 . , ,
, ,

,
.
, 1980,
, , ,
.
, ,
,
, , ,
-

32

. ,
.
,
, , , .


, ,
,
. , ,
75 , , . C$,
.
, 20% 30%
(
1), ,

. , 2000 .
, , .
, , ,
.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005


"" -.
, ,
, ,
,
. ,
.
(
C$)
(
) .

1. ( )


- 1.34 $ 1.40 $ .
,
.
, , -
, .
"". -

33

2005 58/9

"Ifo". - , ,
0.5%, 1%
.
0.2% ( ) - ,
.
, ,
, "" .
-, , ,
.
( ) 2%- .
,

, , .
,
2005 , ,
, ,

. 0.7% ( ),
, , ,
, ,
0.5%. ,
, . (1.6%
/) , , ,
2.6%. , "". ,
, , , .

, 2004
, ,
-

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

. ,
,
. , , , " ",
, "".
" ".
,
,
,
. "Nikkei"
,
. , ,
.

,

.
,
,
2005. , ,

34

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005



,
2005 2006 .

, ""
, ( 3).


80 ( ).
,
.
, ,
. ""
25 (01.03.2005. 25 ).
,
.

2005 58/9

, , .
. , "" 2005.,
.

Forex Magazine
www.cibcwm.com

3.

35

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

20


20
www.fxstreet.com
, :


-
, ,
.
, ? , . , . ,
.
, . , , ,
. . ,
, , ,
.




,
. , , .
, ,
. 1983
, ,
2052 .
, . ,
- , 4 , . , 1987.,
1991., LTCM 1998., NASDAQ 2000. 11 2001.
.
16 17 - . , "Ayn Rand",

. ,
. 31 2006.
, ,
.

36

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

20

2005 58/9



5 2002.,
, 14 2003.
31 2018. ,
.
21 2002 ,
, " , " " ( ),
, - ".
, , , , ,
. , .



3 2003., 73- . "CSX Corporation" - . "CSX" 12 ,
"CSX" "Dow Jones Transportation", "Dow Jones
Industrial". - " ", . ,
2- . , 2- , , , , , .


-

. . , ,
, , . .
, , .

37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

20


C-
- 23 1998.,
,
. 1978. " : ",
, .
"" . , " " , , , .



, ,

. 1974. .
1964. ,
.
, , . , "
, ".

-

.
,
( ). , "Credit Lyonnaise", 1992. , .
, , , - . , - ,
.
. , . 12 ,
. , , , , , , , , - 2005.

38

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

20



, ,
. , " - " (2001.). , , , .



, . , , 3.7% 3.9% .
3%- , , ,
9 . ,
2.9% 2005.
,
. , " ,
.
. 2007., , ".



( ), , "Institut d'Etudes Politiques"
"Ecole Nationale d'Administration". ( 44),
1993.
( 66% 22%
1981.) , 10%,
. , ,
. , - , .

39

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

20



, 1958. . ,
, .
. 2003.,
-.
. .
,
, , 4- 12 .



- ,
20 2004. , , " , , ".
,
,
2004.



,
" ".
" ", " " " ". , - , . "
", . , , ,
100 .

40

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

20

2005 58/9



, , ,
, . , "Goldilocks" ( ), , , ,
, 200 .
" ", , , "",
"" . ,
, , , .



1983. 1997. ( ), , ,
.
46 ,
, 2000. , 33%
- .
, , , . ,
, , . , , , ,
.

-

, ,
"MIT". 1979. 2001.
. (BIS) (IMF) . , , , , , 0.75 .
2%- 2005., , , , .

41

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

20



( 41),

. ,
, "Moore Capital Strategy Group" "Union Bancaire Privee" .



1 2001. ,
. . ,
. , ,
, 30% .
, , ,
- .
, , , , -
.



1996.
. ,
1979., . "" , 01.03.2005. 25 , ,
,
, .

42

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

20

2005 58/9



- (Oikonomos - , ),
. ""
,

.
, 3.4% - OECD ( )
, . , , - , .

Forex Magazine
www.fxstreet.com

43

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9



.
- , "
", " 2" " ",
- " ".
"
",
. , ,
( ), , . ,
- (, )
, ,
.

, ,
, , " " .

. , , ,

. ,
, , . - , " -
".
.., " , ". , ,
,
, , .
"DOX", ,
, ,

44

www.hardrightedge.com
,

10%.
,
, , , - .
,
, ,
, . ,
- , .
,
.
.
. , . , .
,
, ,
. ,
,
,
. , ,
.
,
- -. ,
, ,
"", , .
, ,
, , . (, )
, . .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

1) 5- 3-
120 , .. ,
,
.

.
2) , 31-
, 11- (. ).

, 50 () , 15 50 (b).
14- (a), ,
,
, . , .
,
.
- 66.50 3-
- 24, 42.50 .
21.25 . 66.50, 45.25. 45.25,
,
(d). , ,
. , , 45
, .
, " , ". ,
, , 3- 24
31- ( (a) ).
:

45

, . . 31
(),
. 15
(b).
15- ,
. , ,
(b), 50-

. ,
.
, ,
S&P 16-
, ,
"DOX" . ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

11:30 ( (a)
), "DOX" - ,
, - . , "DOX"
.

2005 58/9

. "" " ".


,
,
. , " -
".
Forex Magazine
www.hardrightedge.com

() , 50% .
(b) - -
" ".
, , "DOX" .
, ""
, ,
. -
, , - 16-
? , ,
,

.
.
,
. , ,

46

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9


www.tradejuice.com
. ,
. ,

,
, ,
, , .
, ,
, .
, , . , , .
" ",
, , . ,
, ,
,
,
. , ,
,
, . .
, ,

:
,


? , ,
.
,
, .
.
,
, ,
, , ,
. , ,
, .
. ,
, .
, , , ,
, . ,
. ,
,
30- .
, , ,
.

,
, . ,
. " ", . , , ,
, ,
.

47


,
.
- , ,
, CPI,
,
, . -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

,

. ,
.
.
,
,
, .

- ,
, . ,
. , ,
, " ".

- ,
,
. , . , , " - ", , ,
, . , ,
. ,
.

2005 58/9

,
, 14 RSI ,
. , RSI
30, . ,
,
,
.
. ,
. 9- 14-
RSI, ,
, MACD 9-, 20- 40 . , , . , .
Forex Magazine
www.tradejuice.com


" " , ,
. , ,
,
, "" , , .

48

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 58/9

(TDI)

(TDI)
www.linnsoft.com

Mom = Price - Price[Period]


MomAbs = Abs(Mom)
MomSum = Sum(Mom, Period)
MomSumAbs = Abs(MomSum)
MomAbsSum = Sum(MomAbs, Period)
MomAbsSum2 = Sum(MomAbs, Period * 2)
TDI = MomSumAbs - (MomAbsSum2 - MomAbsSum)

- , ( , ..);

- ,
TDI, ;

-
TDI;

-
.

(TDI)
... ,
, .


. -
-. -
. .

"Microsoft" (MSFT).
(TDI)
,
.
, .

49

20-
, . 20- 20 . , 20- , 20- .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

(TDI)

2005 58/9


.

, ,
. , ,
TDI . ,
, 20- 20 .
, . : ,
, TDI ,
.

, "Investor/RT".
, .
TDI

"", , "", 1.
Forex Magazine
www.linnsoft.com

50

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

You might also like

  • FM 48
    FM 48
    Document58 pages
    FM 48
    Diana Rusuhanu
    No ratings yet
  • FM 40
    FM 40
    Document54 pages
    FM 40
    Diana Rusuhanu
    No ratings yet
  • FM 33
    FM 33
    Document56 pages
    FM 33
    Diana Rusuhanu
    No ratings yet
  • FM 31
    FM 31
    Document53 pages
    FM 31
    Diana Rusuhanu
    No ratings yet
  • FM 29
    FM 29
    Document47 pages
    FM 29
    Diana Rusuhanu
    No ratings yet