Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Fair Bet
Cost Equals Expected Gain Cost = P * (Amount you Win) Example: Flipping a Coin
Cost = $10 P = .5 Amount You Win = $20
Categorizing Risk
Pure Risk v. Speculative Risk Diversifiable Risk v. Nondiversifiable Risk Fundamental Risks and Particular Risks
Diversification
Pooling Similar Risks
INSURANCE
Planning
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Corporation
suppliers customers
government
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Amish Rebuilding
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Risk Manager:
Minimize Adverse Consequences of Risk
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Hiring an Employee
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Mission Identification
Goal of Organization
Goal of Risk Management Department
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Organization Goals
Corporation: Maximize Profits Non-Profit Organizations Religious Organization Hospitals
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Organization Goals
Charities
Red Cross: The
American Red Cross, a humanitarian organization led by volunteers, . . . will provide relief to victims of disasters and help people prevent, prepare for, and respond to emergencies.
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Post-Loss Objectives
Survival of the Organization Continuity of Operations Earnings Stability Continued Growth Social Responsibility
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Pre-Loss Objectives
Economy Reduction in Anxiety
Owners Suppliers Lenders Customers Govt. Agencies
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New Discoveries
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Sources of Risk
Physical Environment Social Environment Political Environment Legal Environment Operational Environment Economic Environment Cognitive Environment
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Example
Workplace Injury
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Categories of Exposures
Property Exposures
Direct: Immediate Result Indirect: Secondary Results Example: Robbery of a Store
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Interactions with External Resources Interactions with other Departments Past Losses On-Site Inspections
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Accident Causation
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Ratios Example
Data
1000 Restaurants 50 Fires
Type 1 Fires: 20, $25,000 Type 2 Fires: 30, $50,000
Severity = [20($25,000) + 30($50,000)]/50 = $40,000 Frequency = 50 / 1000 = .05 Expected Loss = .05($40,000) = $2000
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Contagion
Ex: Foot-and-Mouth Disease
Snowball Effect
Ex: Mad Cow Disease
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Example
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Flights 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Crashes 10 0 4 2 0 Losses $2,000,000 0 $1,000,000 $500,000 0
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Loss Statistics
n Oi pi i1 freq mean = .2(.002)+.2(0)+.2(.0008)+.2(.0004)+.2(0)
Mean =
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Loss Statistics
S.D. =
n pi ( O i E V i ) 2 i1
Sev S.D. =
= $26,791
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$245,541 $272,332
mean = S.D. =
Important Distributions
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.015(2000) = 30 Accidents
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CHANGE in Process
Insufficient Data
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Loss Triangles
Predict When Losses Will Occur Predict Total Losses Highlight Trends
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Loss Triangle
Product Liability Suits
Loss Year
Year of Experience (ex. Year of Sales)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 12 2004 16 16 2005 20 21 9 2006 22 26 12 8 2007 22 29 15 11 15
Development Factors
1.246
1.1075
1.000
= 20 = 25 = 28 = 28
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i% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Total Cost/Claim PV in 2003 # Losses Losses $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $15,000 $18,000 $20,000 $24,000 $10,000 $11,321 $12,460 $12,594 $14,258 12 4 4 2 0 $120,000 $45,284 $49,840 $25,188 0
$240,312
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Homework Problems
A) Determine the Number of Fully Developed Losses for 2004, 2005, and 2006. B) What is the PV of Losses Arising from 2005 Sales as of 2005?
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Normal Distribution
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Property Losses
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[ Real Property
Non-owned Property
Bailed Property Leased Property Property on Consignment Employees Property Property under Lien Agency Relationships Contingent Property
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Perils
Commonly Insured
Government Insured
Uninsurable
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Earth Movement
Floods
Nuclear Reaction
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Financial Consequences
Reduction in Value Debris Removal Business Interruption Contingent Business Interruption Loss of Rental Income Loss of Rental Value Loss of Leasehold Interest Inability to Reconstruct Records Loss of Use Value in Improvements and Betterments Demolition Costs and Increased Cost of Reconstruction
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Valuation of a Loss
Market Value Replacement Cost Actual Cash Value (Replacement Cost - Depreciation) Present Value of the Assets Contribution
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Fire
Date: January 1, 2007 Replacement Cost: $2,000,000
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Liability Loss
Expenditure of TIME and MONEY Investigate, Negotiate, Defense, Payment
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Civil
Private Duties Common Law, Statutes, Contracts
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TORT
Wrongful Act or Omission Independent of Contract Legal Remedy: DAMAGES ($$$)
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Types of TORTS
Strict Liability
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Intentional TORTS
Defenses
Truth
Privilege
Absolute Qualified
No Malice Not Known False No Intent to Injure Fair, if by news media Covered Body
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Intentional Torts:
Invasion of the Right of Privacy
Examples
Release Confidential Information Hidden Microphones
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Intentional Torts:
Assault and Battery
Chambers pleaded guilty in 1988 to manslaughter in the death of 18-year-old Jennifer Levin two years earlier.
Stories portrayed him as a handsome, privileged, prep school youth gone bad. He was released from prison in 2003.
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Intentional Torts:
Assorted Others
False Arrest and Wrongful Detention Malicious Prosecution Trespass Conversion Nuisance
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Bad Faith
Delaying Payment of Claims Refusing to Pay Claims
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Negligence
Acts of Omission
Acts of Commission
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Damages
Compensatory Damages
Special Damages General Damages
Punitive Damages
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Defenses to Negligence
Contributory Negligence Comparative Negligence Assumption of Risk Statute of Limitations Immunities
Sovereign Charitable Institutions Public Officials
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Compensate Deter
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Employee
Sacrifices Time for Income Is Told How to Work Method of Payment Not Important to Status
Independent Contractor
Not an Employee Controls Methods of Work
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Workplace Injuries
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Rank 1
Total deaths 85
2
3 4 5
Aircraft pilots
Fishers and fishing workers Structural iron and steel workers Refuse and recyclable material collectors
92.4
86.4 47.0 43.2
109
38 31 35
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7 8 9
37.5
34.9 30.0 27.6
307
94 36 905
10
24.2
67
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Farm Workers
Domestic Workers
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Workers Compensation
Accident
Medical Care
Body Part Payments Death Benefits
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Property Damage
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Employee Benefits
Attract Workers Retain Workers Retire Workers Encourage Productivity
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Loss of Personnel
Premature Death Disability/Poor Health
Resign
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Life Insurance: Many are Underinsured Pension Plan Earnings of Surviving Spouse
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Disability Problem
Disability is comparatively frequent Disability can be extremely costly Most lost income due to disability is not replaced Disability insurance is confusing
Multiple definitions of disability
Age 22 62
P(Disability)/P(Death) 7.5 2
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Risk Control
Avoidance Prevention Reduction Information Management Some Risk Transfers
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Risk Avoidance
Proactive Avoidance
Abandonment
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Drawbacks to Avoidance
Lost Benefits of Risk Perhaps not Possible
$ Government Imposed Risks $ Nature of the Risk
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Customers: Enhanced Sales Creditors: Lower Debt Cost Suppliers: Better Relationships Owners: Greater Market Value
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Risk Transfer
Property or Activity Transferred
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Retention Transfer
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Prospective Retrospective
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Approaches to Retention
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Types of Transfers
Insurance Noninsurance Transfers Hedging
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Elements of Insurance
Contract
Premium Conditional Benefits Pooling of Resources
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Insurance Transaction
Buyer Side of the Market
Risk Managers Brokers Consultants
Agent
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Noninsurance Transfers
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Hedging
Taking an Offsetting Risk
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Hedging Example
January 1: Arrange to sell chairs for $5.00 Raw materials today cost $2.50/chair June 1: July 1: Build chairs Deliver chairs
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Hedging Example
Risk:
Options:
1. Sell chairs on a cost + basis 2. Buy and hold raw materials 3. Buy and have seller hold raw materials 4. Use a hedge
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Futures Contract
Owner of contract on Termination Date Receives the lumber
Price of contract depends on a) Cost of lumber today b) Risk Premium Origination Date: September 1 Termination Date: August 31.
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Hedging Contract
January 1: Buy Hedging Contract Hedging Contract = $2.50 + x Lumber = $2.50 Risk Premium = x Buy Lumber & Sell Futures Contract Lumber = $2.50 + y Futures Contract = $2.50 + (x - z) + y Change in lumber cost = y Depreciation of risk premium = z Total Cost = ($2.50 + x) + ($2.50 + y) - ($2.50 + (x - z) + y) = $2.50 + z 135
June 1:
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Hedging Volatility
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Timing
Short-run exposure can be managed in a variety of ways Long-run exposure almost impossible to hedge
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Forward Contracts
A contract between parties
Agreement today on the price of the asset on the delivery date Delivery and payment is specified for a future date
Key points
Negotiated contract No exchange of cash initially Usually limited to large, creditworthy corporations
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Futures Contracts
Futures traded on organized securities exchanges
Upfront cash payment: MARGIN Small relative to the value of the contract Marked-to-market on a daily basis Clearinghouse guarantees contract performance Clearinghouse and margin requirements virtually eliminate credit risk
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Swaps
A long-term agreement between two parties Can be viewed as a series of forward contracts Generally limited to large creditworthy institutions or companies
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Option Contracts
The right, but not the obligation, to buy (sell) an asset for a set price on or before a specified date
Call right to buy the asset Put right to sell the asset Exercise or strike price specified price Expiration date specified date
Buyer has the right to exercise the option; the seller is obligated
Call option writer is obligated to sell the asset if the option is exercised Put option writer is obligated to buy the asset if the option is exercised
Options allow a firm to hedge downside risk, but still participate in upside potential
Pay a premium for this benefit
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80 100
Payoff
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Pure Premium
# cars = 10,000 # losses = 250 $ losses = $4.5 million Pure Premium = frequency x severity Frequency = 250 / 10,000 = 2.5% Severity = $4.5 million / 250 = $18,000 Pure Premium = 2.5% (18,000) = $450 A = 1.4 B = $50 1.4 (450) + 50 = $680
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Underwriting Considerations
Adverse Selection Misclassification Control Civil Rights Costs of Classification Social Policy
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Cigarette Smoking Obesity Age Prior history of heart disease Genetic Predisposition to Stomach Cancer Gender Race
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Central Limit Theorem Mean = True Mean Law of Large Numbers Increase sample size by N New Mean = Old Mean x N New S.D. = Old S.D. x Sq. Root of N
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suicide, space shuttle, mental illness, war, early flight and computers, terminally ill
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Moral Hazard
Exaggeration of Losses
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Insurer
Failure to Honor the Contract Misleading Contracts False Advertising Inappropriate Sales
Insured
Fraud
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Controlling Cheating
Litigation Regulation
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Litigation
Requirements of an Insurable Contract
Consideration
Competent Parties Legal Purpose
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Litigation
Legal Principles: Indemnity
Valuation
Property: ACV Liability: Actual Damages
Apparent Exceptions
Valued Policies Replacement Cost Insurance Life Insurance
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ACV = Replacement Cost Depreciation 1/1/04: Buy Machine for $3,000, 10 year life 1/1/06: Fire Destroys Machine; New Machine Costs $10,000 ACV = $10,000 - $2,000 = $8,000
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Litigation
Principle of Insurable Interest
Property and Liability: Time of Loss
Ownership Potential Legal Liability Secured Creditors
Litigation
Principle of Subrogation
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Litigation
Principle of Utmost Good Faith
Is It Material?
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Types of Regulation
Licensing Solvency Rate Approval Agents Activities Insurance Contracts
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Bad Management Poor Underwriting Inadequate Reserves Bad Investing Inattentive to Loss Prevention Competitive Pressures
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Danger of Insolvency
Most Insurers are Very Solid 100+ Years
71 Life Insurers 200 Property and Liability Insurers
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Premium Regulation
Open Competition
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Flexibility Increased Availability of Insurance Avoid Political Fights Frees Time of Regulators
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THE END
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