Analyzing youth crime by age, gender and type of decision

By: Eros Wang

Youth Crime in Canada

Some facts

In 2006, the national crime rate was down 3% over the previous year and was the lowest it had been in more than 25 years. However, the youth crime rate was up 3% from a year earlier.

Focus on:

Age (12-17) Gender (male and female) Types of decisions Transferred to adult court, guilty, acquitted, stay, withdrawn or dismissed

1. Age

Age 12, 15 and 17

Age 12

Age 15

Age 17

Involving Probability
The total number of case =1,389,392 P (age 12) = 41637/1389392 = 0.03 (smallest) P (age 17) = 394793/1389392 = 0.28 (highest)

The number of cases gets smaller when the age gets younger

2. gender

Male cases are decreasing faster than female cases

Male

Female

Box and whisker

The percentage

Involving probability
Total male and female cases= 1109407 + 294611 =1,697,439 P (male case) = 1109407/1,697,439 P (female case) = 294611/1,697,439

3. Type of decisions

Comparing:

Transferred to adult court CC= -0.87 Mean= 37.4 Guilty CC= -0.96 Mean= 49059.3 Acquitted CC= -0.98 Mean= 1074 Stay CC= 0.67 Mean= 8271 Withdrawn or dismissed CC= -0.80 Mean= 24454

Using Probabilities & Combinations:

Mix them up: There are 6 different ages, 2 types of genders and 5 types of decisions. Thus the combination of this one is similar to the question that asks you to match an outfit from 6 shirts, 2 pants and 5 pairs of shoes. This is an and question, so we simply use multiplication. 6* 2 * 5 = 60C1 = 60 Therefore, there are 60 different cases when we combine them together.

Conclusion

During 1991 to 2009, the number of cases of each age is decreasing. There are more males cases in the youth court survey. Guilty is the most common decision.

Challenges & Limitation

Hidden variables Linear regression cant represent all data. Sampling population