By: Samuel Melo

Crime vs. Economy

A Case Study

Contents

Introduction Methodology Formulas Hypothesis #1 Hypothesis #2 Hypothesis #3 What does it have to do with you? Reflection Sources

Introduction

Crime and economy are two of the main topics discussed in todays society People tend to think that one is related to the other. In other words, one is caused by the other (cause and effect relationship) Data provides the best way to analyze both issues and compare them, as we try to find whether or not a correlation exists.

Methodology

Statistics reveal the world but it needs to be found at the right places Data found in statistics Canada were the best bet as they were less likely to be biased To define the relationship, statistical aspects like mean, median, minimum value, maximum value, Q1, Q3, interquartile range, standard deviations and correlation coefficients were analyzed. All of these statistical tools will be important to test our hypothesis.

Formulas
Mean: Standard Deviation

Correlation Coefficient

Interquartile Range Q3 Q1

Hypothesis #1

The unemployment rate and impaired driving cases have a direct relationship. As the unemployment rate increases, the number of impaired driving cases also increases. To find out whether this is true or not, data on the Canadian unemployment rate and impaired driving cases was collected

Hypothesis #1 contd

Hypothesis #1: Graph

Hypothesis #1: Conclusion

A correlation coefficient of 0.76502 represents a strong positive correlation. Without even comparing both graphs, we can tell by looking at the table that in 2008 and 2009 were the year with highest unemployment; coincidentally, on those years the number of impaired driving cases were also higher. The points in the graph cluster around the line of best fit, which suggests that there is a relationship.

Hypothesis #2

The GDP based on expenditure decreases as the number of property robbery increases. It is not unreasonable to think that when more properties are being robbed the amount of money being spent on goods and services are less. If an economy is going through a downfall less money is spent on goods and services. Thus, the GDP based on expenditure and the number of property robbery has an indirect relationship.

Hypothesis #2: Graph

Hypothesis #2: Conclusion

Hypothesis is flawed The correlation is positive not negative. The correlation is 0.504621, which is a moderate correlation. This means that there is a relationship, but it is not a cause and effect relationship.

Hypothesis #3

If more money is available in a given economy, more fraud cases are likely to happen but on the other hand, if less money is available less fraud cases are likely to happen direct relationship. To test this hypothesis, data on the increase or decrease in cash in the Canadian economy as well as data on fraud cases in Canada was found.

Hypothesis #3: Graph

Hypothesis #3: Conclusion

There is indeed a correlation, although it is moderate (almost weak). It is also a direct relationship (positive) as expected.

Canadian Crimes

Violent Crime Drug Offences

Property Crime Other Federal Statute Violations

Criminal Code Traffic Violations

What does it have to do with you?

Property crimes include frauds and property robbery, which are two out of the three types of crime that were mentioned in this case study. 65% of the crimes in Canada in 2010 were property crimes, which means that 2 out of 3 crimes will be property crimes. 1 out of 25 Canadians will be faced with a property crime.

Conclusion

If all three correlations are added, a total of 1.71 if found, meaning that the average correlation coefficient is equal to 0.57 a moderate positive relationship. Crime and economy are somewhat related, but other factors affect crime and the economy. Unemployment is strongly related with crime, but other economic indicators did not have the same successful correlation.

Sources

http://userwww.sfsu.edu/~ishikawa/documents/ Economic%20Conditions%20and%20Crime%20R ate.pdf http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/subject-sujet/themetheme.action?pid=2693&lang=eng&more=0 http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/subject-sujet/themetheme.action?pid=3764&lang=eng&more=0 http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sumsom/l01/cst01/indi02a-eng.htm http://www.statcan.gc.ca/dailyquotidien/110721/dq110721b-eng.htm