10 GDP

GDPGDP

200

2006GDP

150

GDP
20002006

100
50
0
50

GDP

00 1

06 1

100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0

8 12 14 10 11 13 18 16 17 15 3 19 20

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

OECD
OECD200621GDP

GDP
GDPGDPNPGDPGDPGDPPGDP
EXCPOP
GDPNPGDPPGDPEXCPOP
GDPNPGDPNP
GDPGDP
GDPNP
PGDPPGDP
GDP

GDPNP
EXCEXC
GDPNP
POPPOP

2002 GDP 5.7 2008 0.5

94

2008 2.4
GDP 2008 147.6
49

GDP

2003

1 4 1

GDP
4.0

2.0

0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0

8.0
10.0

1990 91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99 2000 01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

20062007
GDP

9827
200020014.53.7
20054
92,918
20062008

492008

95

2001

2001

2002 2002

2010

GDP 2006 2002

2006

2007
2006 20062011

2010 GDP
2007

2007 2007

2008
2008 2008
2006 2007

2006 2007

96

2006
0.25 2007
0.5

2007
2007

0.5

2006

2006 18 18 2006
2006
18

98 2005
50
2006
51
18

0.25 0.5 2006

2007

2007

50

Reifschneider and Williams2000Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era,Journal of
Money, Credit and Banking, 32
51 0.5

97

1 4 2

9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
1990

1.00

0.75

0.50
0
0.25
0.00

2
92

94

96

98

2000

02

04

06

2
0.25

08
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I
2004
05
06
07 08

rtrt11
itYtt
rt
it GDP
YtGDP
t

2
0.0
2.0

0.83
13.25
0.75
11.40

0.11
3.05
0.06
1.32

0.12
1.50
0.38
3.17

adj-R2

0.93

0.64

0.72

0.93

0.23

1.56

1815
ab
GDPGDPGDP
GDP0.02.0

96831954

0.1

98

1 4 3

DI

30
25
20

15
10
D 5
I
0

10
15
20

6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3
1999
2000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08

DI

25
20
15

10
5
D
0
I
5

10
15
20
25

6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3
1999
2000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08

52

522006 11 2

99

53

2008

53

100