CRISIS 2007

Sujan Raj Adhikari

CRISIS 2007
CRISIS 2007 uses a probabilistic method for calculating seismic hazard in regions. The main data required by CRISIS 2007 are geometric seismic sources, seismic sources and relationships attenuation seismic intensities. Each source can be represented geometrically in an area, a polyline or point. Seismicity of the sources can be modeled by Poisson process or through the characteristic earthquake model. Seismic hazard calculations are made for mesh points that may or not rectangular in shape. CRISIS 2007 contains numerous graphic aids that facilitate data generation and analysis of results. There are certain rules of each country to establish the minimum requirements that need to design buildings which help in decision making for engineers and give greater security to owners and occupants of buildings. These rules contain parameters to estimate effects on structures by the occurrence of earthquakes. A process often used to determine these accelerations are used to estimate seismic forces, can be summarized in the following diagram. Catalog of earthquakes Statistical process. seismicity. geophysics. geology P wave propagation analysis . o characteristics of the path from its origin to rtion of its corresponding crustal seismicity. the place of study. seismic sources seismic hazard, expressed in terms of probability of exceeding the maximum acceleration in a certain period..

laws of attenu ation of seismic w aves

Lost functions in buildings due to seismic effects. Vulnerability functions. Optimization. Experience.

Design seismic coefficients. Design spectra. Design seismic forces.

Figure: calculation of seismic forces required in the design of buildings

CRISIS 2007 is part of the platform developed by the consortium CAPRA ERN as a code system and open architecture. CRISIS estimates the size of future earthquakes. For this, estimated exceedance rates of seismic intensity. The exceedance rate is the average numbers of times that do in certain site are presented intensities greater than or equal to a given one. The exceedance rate is the inverse of the return period. for example, to perform calculations CRISIS can be determined that a city can be expected every 100 years an acceleration in the firm ground of 0.32g, 0.83g and an acceleration of a building with a period of 0.15s. CRISIS2007 requires following to calculate the exceedance rates of seismic intensity: 1) Defining the areas that generate earthquakes (seismic source) 2) The fixing of the recurrence relations of magnitude for each seismic source 3) The laws of attenuation of seismic waves 4) Precise the region under study by a grid of dots and 5) Other parameters

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CRISIS 2007
Grid sites The CRISIS2007 program has a mesh screen to define the calculation sites representing the region under study. Each grid point is identified by its longitude and latitude respectively. CRISIS2007 calculated exceedance rates of seismic intensities for each of the points of the mesh calculation. The limits of the mesh are defined by the region to study. However, the choice of mesh density depends on several factors. As the mesh is denser, you can expect more detailed definitions of outcomes. However, a very dense mesh also can involve a lot of computer calculation time.

Fig: Defining the Mesh

Geometry of the seismic sources

In CRISIS 2007 the geometry of the sources can be modeled as: 1. Source area, with the use of a polygon with at least three vertices, each vertex requires latitude, a length. With this type of source can be represented, for example, subducted plates, 2. Source fault with the use of polylines, and 3. Point source, used primarily for academic purposes.

Fig: Geometry of Seismic Source

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CRISIS 2007
Seismic sources
The concentration of the origins of earthquakes in certain areas can delineate seismic sources. Each source function is defined by two characteristics: geometry and seismicity. Therefore, after defining the geometry of a source, CRISIS 2007 requires data representing seismicity. That is, parameters that describes approximately the number and size of earthquakes with particular characteristics, which have originated during time in a region. CRISIS 2007 can choose between two modes of occurrence of earthquakes, whose main difference is that the occurrence of earthquakes is independent of time in the first (Poisson Model), while the second occurrence of earthquakes depends on the time when the process of slip predictable (Characteristic Model). Poisson model The data required by the program for each seismic source, with recurrence of earthquakes similar to process Poission are basically parameters that define the curve of the excedance rate of the magnitude, where lamda0, BITA and MU are parameters that establish the shape of the curve and M0 is from the catalog.

Fig: Poisson Model 1. Threshold magnitude (M0). The catalog of earthquakes is assumed to be complete for M>M0. Earthquakes with M<M0 are absolutely ignored. 2. (M0): Exceedance rate of magnitude M0. The units are earthquakes/year. 3. Expected value of beta. Expectation of the "b-value" for the source, given in terms of the natural logarithm. 4. Coefficient of variation of beta. Coefficient of variation of the "b-value" for the source, given in terms of the natural logarithm. 5. Untruncated expected value. Expected value (untruncated) of the maximum magnitude for the source. 6. Untruncated standard deviation. Untruncated standard deviation of the maximum magnitude for the source. 7. Lower limit (M1). Minimum possible value of the maximum magnitude. 8. Upper limit (M2). Maximum possible value of the maximum magnitude.

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CRISIS 2007
Characteristic earthquake model Analyzing the data of earthquakes in different regions of the world, has observed that in certain seismic tectonic provinces, Gutenberg-Richter law underestimate or overestimate the seismicity. An example of this occurs in the Mexican subduction zone, where the times between earthquakes occur periodically. On the other hand there is an absence of certain seismic magnitudes, ie, earthquakes seem to prefer certain sizes. In this model it is considered that the magnitude uncertain on time has normal distribution. As the magnitude of an earthquake is correlated with the time which needs to stay, that happens, it is said that follows a predictable slide. Therefore the expected magnitude, can be defined as a function of time as follows

Where E (M/T00) is the expected value of the magnitude of the next event, since T00 years have elapsed since the last occurrence of a characteristic earthquake of magnitude M. M0 is the magnitude threshold, and D and F are parameters that define the magnitude, depending on the natural logarithm of time elapsed since the last occurrence of a characteristic earthquake. The characteristic earthquake model of the exceedance rate of the magnitude function LamdaM changes of time and is given by

where T0 = time between events with M> M0 = Standard deviation of the magnitude of the tremors characteristic = Denotes standard normal distribution To define the expected magnitude as a function of time, it is implicitly choosing the probability distribution of time between events. In various studies has been to consider that the time between events has lognormal distribution is successful.

Fig: Characteristic Model

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CRISIS 2007
Median value of the times between characteristic earthquakes with M>M0. This is the inverse of the exceedance rate for M>M0. Standard deviation of the magnitude of the characteristic earthquake. It is assumed independent of time. Minimum possible magnitude of a characteristic earthquake. Earthquakes with M<M0 are absolutely ignored Maximum magnitude of the characteristic earthquake to be used in the integration process. Parameters D and F define the expected magnitude as a function of time, as in the slip-predictable model. It is assumed that

E(M|T00)=max(M0,D+F*LN(T00)) Where T00 is the time elapsed since the last characteristic event. Of course, if F is set to zero, then D becomes the expected time-independent magnitude of the characteristic earthquake.

Laws of attenuation of seismic intensities Crisis requires a file for each attenuation law to be considered in the calculations. each file must contain a table of values representing law attenuation of seismic intensity, with parameters that define: 1) earthquake magnitude, 2) hypo central distance in km, which are established logarithmic spacing, 3) the various measures intensity, corresponding to each size and each distance, 4) the period to which correspondent structural seismic intensities, 5) the standard deviation of intensity values, and 6) the upper limit of the intensity (optional). Using tables to represent attenuation laws facilitates the incorporation of complex behaviors associated with attenuation of seismic waves. Each seismic source it can assign one or more attenuation laws. When assigned to a single law of attenuation that will be valid anywhere, but when you assign two or more attenuation of a seismic source, will be required to define the region where laws are valid additional attenuation. The ability to assign various laws of attenuation to the same seismic source can consider site effects in the calculation of seismic hazard.

Fig: Attenuation Data In general, CRISIS must know what relation to use to attenuate earthquakes generated in each source. In principle, each source could have its associated attenuation relation. In practice, only a few different attenuation relations are used in a particular analysis (e.g., one for subduction events and another for shallow crustal earthquakes). CRISIS can perform a simultaneous hazard analysis for several intensity measures (e.g., PGA and spectral accelerations for different periods). Therefore, CRISIS must also know for how many different intensity measures the analysis will be carried out, and the associated attenuation relations. Frequently, the different intensity measures are spectral response values for different periods, so a uniform hazard spectrum can be constructed.

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CRISIS 2007
In view of this, the general operations that have to be performed in this screen are: Select and add the attenuation models to be used in the analysis. Assign one of these models to each source. Selection of attenuation models

CRISIS admits two types of attenuation models: user models and built-in models. User models

They are given in text files, one file for each attenuation model, with a predefined format (see Attenuation Tables). In these files, the user describes, in a tabular form, the relations between magnitude, distance and intensity.Use the button Add user model to give the path of the file that contains the attenuation table. Built-in models

These are popular attenuation equations published in the literature that the user can choose as attenuation models for CRISIS. Usually, the user must also select some parameters required by the builtin models, such as style of faulting and soil type. Use the button Add built-in model to choose one of the possible built-in models and give the appropriate parameters. Assignment of attenuation models

Once one or several attenuation models have been added, the user must assign one attenuation model to each source.See special attenuation models for a more complex use of attenuation models. Use the button Delete model to remove one from the list of models used. Attenuation models

These are popular attenuation equations published in the literature that the user can choose as attenuation models for CRISIS. Usually, the user must also select some additional parameters, such as style of faulting and soil type. The following attenuation equations are built-in into CRISIS: Abrahamson and Silva (1997)

Type of distance: Closest to rupture area Additional parameters required: Fault type (Reverse, Reverse/Oblique, Other) Soil type: Rock or shallow soil, Deep soil Hanging wall: whether the observer is or not in the hanging wall of the fault SEA99 (1997)

Type of distance: Joyner and Boore Additional parameters required:

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CRISIS 2007
Soil type: Rock or soil Garca et al. (2005)

Type of distance: Closest to rupture area Additional parameters required: none. Youngs et al. (1997)

Type of distance. Closest to rupture area Additional parameters required: Fault location (interface, intraslab) Soil type: Rock or soil Built-in properties

This frame gives the period limits for which spectral attenuation relations are valid and the type of distance measure that the attenuation relation uses. If the user specifies periods T outside the limits for which the attenuation relation was constructed, the following assumptions will be made: If T<Tmin then the spectral value corresponding to Tmin will be used. If T>Tmax then the spectral acceleration will be extrapolated with Sa(Tmax)*(Tmax/T)2. In other words, CRISIS will assume that we are in the constant-displacement region of the spectrum.

Intensities for each spectral ordinate CRISIS 2007 considered Intensity as a reasonable and meaningful measure of the size of the earthquake engineering at the site of interest. are commonly used measures of intensity maxima of ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and the ordinate the response spectrum for 5% of critical damping. CRISIS 2007 estimated Intensities that may occur in a certain place and how often it will occur. The program will calculate exceedance rates for extreme values that define the current range to be considered and the number of points to consider in this range. Should be set a range of intensities for each structural period established. For example, may indicate that structural period of 0.15, is calculate the exceedance rate of 10 different accelerations (with logarithmic separation), with values between 1 and 2000 gal. In this case, exceedance rates are obtained for each acceleration values (1.00, 2.33, 5.41, 12.60, 29.32, 68.22, 158.74, 369.38, 859. 51, 2000.00), which will establish the curve of the exceedance rates of acceleration. The limits of the ranges of intensities typically require modifications based on results of seismic hazard. That is required to calibrate the intensity intervals to ensure that contain the most representative intensities, thereby achieving better approximations of the curve of the exceedance rates.

Fig: Intensities for each Spectral Ordinate

Sujan Raj Adhikari

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CRISIS 2007
1. Total number of spectral ordinates
Is the total number of different intensity measures for which hazard is to be computed? Frequently, the different intensity measures refer to spectral ordinates for different structural periods. In this case, spectral attenuation relations are needed.

2. Actual spectral ordinate

Use this control to move from one intensity measure to the other.

3. Structural period of spectral ordinate

This is the value of the structural period associated to this measure of intensity. The values given in the attenuation tables must be coherent with the period values given here.

4. Lower limit of intensity level

Points defining exceedance rate curves

5. Upper limit for intensity level

Points defining exceedance rate curves

6. Units
The units of the intensity measure

7. Number of levels of intensity for which seismic hazard will be computed.

Points defining exceedance rate curves

Global parameters To design a building it is required to establish lashed utility. Depending on the number of years in which it is deemed to give Services a building, seismic forces will probably affect them. For considerations as above in the program can be defined return periods in years, to indicate how often certain intensity can be expected. To make efficient load in CRISIS 2007 is required to set a maximum radius for the study sites despises the influence they could produce seismic sources outside the circle defined by the site and the maximum radius. For this reason the selection of maximum radio requires judgment of the investigator. When there is no certainty about this, it should provide great lengths to avoid errors in seismic hazard calculations for underestimating seismic sources.

Fig: Global Parameters

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CRISIS 2007
This screen allows you to enter information concerning: The spatial integration procedure The fixed return periods for which map files are to be generated The distance to be used for M-R disaggregation Integration parameters Parameter controlling the integration process

All sources or sub-sources farther away than this number (in Km) will be ignored in the spatial integration process. Minimum triangle size Sources will be subdivided into sub-sources whose characteristic size will not be less than this number. For area sources, the characteristic size is the square root of its area. For a fault source, the characteristic size is its length. Minimum (Distance/Triangle size) ratio Sources will be subdivided until the ratio between source-site distance and characteristic size of the subsource is larger than this number. Fixed return periods for which map files are to be generated

Give up to 5 different return periods for which map files are to be generated Distance used for M-R disaggregation

The M-R disaggregation results give, for a site, intensity measure and intensity level, the distribution of exceedance rates as a function of magnitude and distance. Choose which distance will be used as the argument of this M-R distribution.

Validate data, save and start execution This command allows you to execute a run after you have finished with the input. If data are still required when this command is executed, CRISIS will issue a message showing the data required. Enter the data needed, save the data file, and choose Run to initiate execution. After a successful run, a success screen appears showing which output files were generated and where they are located.

Seismic hazard model used by CRISIS2007 if we consider a seismic source and a point of calculation, and if you know the distance of the focal to the site, R0, and the parameters p that defines the exceedance rate curve of the magnitude, Lamda {M}, it is possible to the exceedance rate of acceleration (or other current), V {alpha/R0,p} by

where Pr {A> alpha / M, R0} is the probability that the intensity A, exceeds the value of the current Alpha, given a certain magnitude and distance. In this case

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CRISIS 2007
where = denotes standard normal distribution Standard deviation of the attenuation law Average intensity attenuation table, given a magnitude and a distance Additionally considering the uncertainties in the parameters p that define the curve gives the exceedance rates magnitude

Result file *. res file contains the data used information for calculating seismic hazard. if you chose to print also results in this file, then you will find here the exceedance rates of intensity for each site, and some parameters describing the calculations made in each grid point. *. GRA file contains only the total exceedance rates of intensity for each site and each structural period. *. map file contains intensities for return periods fixed for each site and each structural period. *. fue file contains the exceedance rates of intensity due to each seismic source for each site and each structural period Graphic results of seismic hazard The post processor CRISIS is possible to obtain seismic hazard maps as shown in the figure. Map corresponds to the expected acceleration return in a period as 100 years for a structural period 0, ie, accelerating expected to occur in the dry land of Colombia. The program reads the expected acceleration anywhere in Colombia, with just clicking the mouse pointer on the map. If it is also considered in the calculations for different intensities structural Periods, then it is possible to obtain uniform hazard spectra as shown in the figure.

Fig: Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal

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CRISIS 2007

Fig: exceedance rate curves and uniform hazard spectrum of a point within the country and a return period of 100 years of Kathmandu City

Exceedance rates for seismic source The output file * fue containing the exceedance rates for each site yield due to seismic source allows graphs like figure, where we can identify the contribution of specific sources to the seismic hazard of a site. The program primarily aims to assist engineers in decisions making which required to design buildings to withstand earthquakes. The results for CRISIS 2007 will be better as they reduce the uncertainties in the many parameters that involved in the calculation of seismic hazard. The increasing availability of records to facilitate the generation of seismic parameters which best describes the different regions.

Fig: graphic exceedance rate of acceleration for the city of Colombia

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1 Comprehensive Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA-GIS)

1.1

Introduction

CAPRA-GIS is a geographic information system developed by ERN, which is oriented to probabilistic risk calculations. The CAPRA initiative started in January 2008, as a partnership between CEPREDENAC, the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the World Bank and the Inter American development bank. The main objective is to raise awareness among disaster prone countries by providing them with a set of tools that would let them better understand the risk of adverse natural events. The ultimate goal of the initiative is to help mainstream disaster risk management into local development to help reduce disaster loss. CAPRA provides a set of tools to conduct risk assessments. The first phase of the initiative aimed at developing an integrated platform for probabilistic risk assessment. The platform developed by ERN provides users with a set of tools to analyze magnitude, distribution and probability of potential losses due to various adverse natural events. These metrics are projected on a geographical information system (CAPRA GIS) that allows for visualization and analysis. In absence of such evaluations, government encounters major obstacles to identify, design and prioritize risk reduction measures. 1.2 How it works

The CAPRA methodology applies the principles of probabilistic risk assessment to the analysis of hurricane, earthquake, volcano, flood, tsunami and landslide hazards. CAPRA platform integrates software modules related to hazard, vulnerability and risk modeling. 1.2.1 Hazard Module Within the CAPRA platform, hazard assessment is carried out by generating a series of stochastic events that : (i) have different magnitudes, (ii) have different frequencies of occurrence, (iii) correspond to historical observed trends of recurrence of the hazard under analysis , and (iv) represent the set of possible events with different intensity in different geographic locations.

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1.2.2 Exposure and Vulnerability Module CAPRA allows for the creation of a dynamic database of exposure of infrastructure, buildings and population. It also contains a library of vulnerability functions (relation between the severity of a hazard and the probable damage. It also allows users through a friendly interface to customize these functions or include new ones. To assess the effect on population, relationships of habitation are proposed, based on the building uses. Values of exposure of at risk assets are estimated from secondary sources such as databases, or can be derived by simplified procedures based on general social and macroeconomic information, such as population density, construction statistics or more specific information. Simplified exposure models are used when the asset-by-asset specific information is not available. 1.2.3 Risk Module The probabilistic risk assessment is based on a multi-risk analysis approach. The platform allows the user to evaluate the full range of possible damage that could be attributed to one (scenario analysis) or a sequence (stochastic) of catastrophic events. This approach allows the assessment of: Total annual losses or probable maximum loss associated with a specific hazard (including losses associated with all secondary events), for example, total probabilistic losses associated with a hurricane = sum of probabilistic losses associated with wind, storm surge, flooding and landslides. Total losses associated with a category of risk associated with different trigger events, such as: total probabilistic losses associated with landslides = sum of probabilistic losses associated with landslides triggered by rainfall, earthquakes and hurricane rainstorms.

Within CAPRA, major risk estimates are described in terms of: Annual Expected Loss (AEL) Pure Risk Premium (PRP), Loss Exceedance Curve (LEC) and Probable Maximum Loss (PML).

Load AME & visualization file Click on button Load visualization file

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CRISIS 2007

Select Capra Project

Click on Project configuration wizard

Risk calculation and post processing wizard will appeared

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CRISIS 2007

1. 2. 3. 4.

Select analysis type By single scenery Probabilistic Site Effect Select Infrastructures for calculation Hazard configuration for estimation

o o o

File of origin Available scenario Associated vulnerability

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