Exercise 1 -Simulation Model In Excel Spreadsheet

PART 2
Probability of weekly demand
P(x)
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
1

Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

Cumulative P(x) Demand

0
0
0.2
1
0.6
2
0.8
3
0.9
4

RN
0.615182758
0.834094706
0.996166562
0.852091029
0.816155367
0.495681198
0.124265256
0.353295027
0.722046649
0.045482568
0.346543174
0.186779338
0.501573985
0.550211097
0.455361101
0.606404727
0.904367873
0.440418518
0.859626089
0.294683325
0.17497024
0.987611338
0.243905957
0.540327434
0.469035165
0.565959519
0.420475996
0.142102688
0.768830166
0.141122277
0.003490364
0.976816898
0.053661616
0.391829735
0.971935908
0.460921387
0.688187964
0.398161718
0.070529271
0.877384754
0.442670491
0.274621634
0.956433371
0.277262206
0.08148759
0.398306554

Demand Weekly Revenue Inventory Shortage Inventory Cost Shortage Cost Total Revenue
2
4300
1
-1
50
-500
3750
3
4300
1
-2
50
-1000
3250
4
4300
1
-3
50
-1500
2750
3
4300
1
-2
50
-1000
3250
3
4300
1
-2
50
-1000
3250
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
0
0
1
0
50
0
-50
1
4300
2
0
100
0
4200
2
8600
2
0
100
0
8500
0
0
1
0
50
0
-50
1
4300
2
0
100
0
4200
0
0
2
0
100
0
-100
1
4300
3
0
150
0
4150
1
4300
3
0
150
0
4150
1
4300
3
0
150
0
4150
2
8600
3
0
150
0
8450
4
8600
2
-2
100
-1000
7500
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
3
4300
1
-2
50
-1000
3250
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
0
0
1
0
50
0
-50
4
8600
2
-2
100
-1000
7500
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
0
0
1
0
50
0
-50
2
8600
2
0
100
0
8500
0
0
1
0
50
0
-50
0
0
2
0
100
0
-100
4
12900
3
-1
150
-500
12250
0
0
1
0
50
0
-50
1
4300
2
0
100
0
4200
4
8600
2
-2
100
-1000
7500
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
2
4300
1
-1
50
-500
3750
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
0
0
1
0
50
0
-50
3
8600
2
-1
100
-500
8000
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
4
4300
1
-3
50
-1500
2750
1
4300
1
0
50
0
4250
0
0
1
0
50
0
-50
1
4300
2
0
100
0
4200

47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

0.090865664
0.089028475
0.775843527
0.545721833
0.556331404
0.358485736
0.336845929
0.539237062
0.527881785
0.047728002
0.666668949
0.97094886
0.210078734
0.088949716
0.346149044
0.903603358
0.7549041
0.267143264
0.715526121
0.979095427
0.573936086
0.878233228
0.110811892
0.649250865
0.16428635
0.234674181
0.424067183
0.520814214
0.159400061
0.360458358
0.71492394
0.065421178
0.400944598
0.246910931
0.923326342
0.313870128
0.000636914
0.461222922
0.133899334
0.468451286
0.195314669
0.586952391
0.81183082
0.699150854
0.144251938
0.74920526
0.87824936
0.001301607
0.540260022
0.708698313
0.308997054
0.19423395
0.844863157
0.08169361

0
0
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
2
4
1
0
1
4
2
1
2
4
1
3
0
2
0
1
1
1
0
1
2
0
1
1
4
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
3
2
0
2
3
0
1
2
1
0
3
0

0
0
8600
4300
4300
4300
4300
4300
4300
0
8600
12900
4300
0
4300
8600
4300
4300
4300
4300
4300
4300
0
8600
0
4300
4300
4300
0
4300
8600
0
4300
4300
12900
4300
0
4300
0
4300
0
4300
12900
8600
0
8600
4300
0
4300
8600
4300
0
8600
0

Average weekly demand

Average weekly revenue

2
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
1

1.37
3976

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
-2
-1
0
-1
-3
0
-2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-2
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0

100
150
200
150
150
150
150
150
150
150
200
150
50
50
100
100
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
100
50
100
100
100
100
150
150
100
150
150
150
50
50
100
100
150
150
200
200
100
50
100
50
50
100
100
50
50
100
50

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-500
0
0
0
-1000
-500
0
-500
-1500
0
-1000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1000
0
0
0
0
0
-500
0

-100
-150
8400
4150
4150
4150
4150
4150
4150
-150
8400
12250
4250
-50
4200
7500
3750
4250
3750
2750
4250
3250
-50
8500
-50
4200
4200
4200
-100
4150
8450
-100
4150
4150
12250
4250
-50
4200
-100
4150
-150
4100
12700
8500
-50
8500
3250
-50
4200
8500
4250
-50
8000
-50