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PROJECT COSTS

Estimating E&M powerhouse costs


After compiling statistical data on costs of electrical and mechanical equipment for 81 selected hydro power projects (60% 2007-2008 and 40% 2002-2006), useful diagrams which allow a close cost estimation of E&M in powerhouses with Pelton, Francis, Kaplan, Kaplan-Rohr, Bulb turbine or Francis pump turbines have been composed. Paper by Cesar Alvarado-Ancieta

ANY mathematical formulae (Gordon-Penman, 1979; Nachtnebel, 1981; Gordon, 1981, 1983; Gordon-Noel, 1986; Aggidis-Luchinskaya-Rothschild-Howard, 2008) have been developed for estimation of costs, or generating costs, of small and large hydro power projects. These often focus on specific topics such as costs of the dam type, tunnelling work, penstock installation, civil works for powerhouses, electrical and mechanical equipment for powerhouses, etc. Focusing on E&M equipment, the existing formulae have been developed taking into account specific cost data for a region or country, while also considering global costs of planning a hydro plant. When working on a project, hydro consultants need to carry out a cost estimation analysis for each specific case. This can be a time-consuming task when carrying out feasibility studies and final reports. Therefore, a detailed analysis of costs continually needs to be carried out. The author has developed a simplified methodology based on current information from E&M equipment contractors or suppliers. Useful diagrams which allow a close cost estimation of E&M

equipment in powerhouses which feature Pelton, Francis, Kaplan, Kaplan-Rohr (for low heads up to 15m), Bulb or Francis pump turbine units have been developed based on the compilation of statistical data for over 81 hydro power projects. The data was obtained from existing publications, journals, call for tenders, award of tenders, websites and suppliers of E&M equipment. The data also contains projected costs from some projects found on existing reports or national authority references.

C OMPILED

DATA

The compiled data corresponds to information of the E&M contracts for powerhouses only, which include costs of turbines, governors, valves, cooling and drainage water systems, cranes, workshops, generators, transformers, earthing systems, control equipment, telecommunication systems (including remote central control room) and auxiliary systems (including draft tube gates, heating and ventilation, domestic water and installation). Other electrical and mechanical

Figure 1: Costs of E&M equipment and installed power capacity in powerhouses for 81 hydro power plants in America, Asia, Europe and Africa
1000 Argentina Chile El Salvador Iran Mexico Peru Romania Turkey Armenia China Ethiopia Kenya Nepal Portugal Russia Uganda Austria Congo Germany Laos Nicaragua Rep. Dominicana South Africa USA Canada Ecuador Iceland Madagascar Pakistan Rwanda Sudan Brazil Cost of electrical and mechanical equipment in a powerhouse (data series 2002-2008) Valid for 2009

1000

Cost [US$ x 106]

100

10

The cost includes turbines, governors, valves, cooling and drainage water systems, cranes, workshop, generators, transformers, earthing system, control equipment, telecommunications systems and auxiliary systems. 1 1 10 100 P [MW] 1000 10000

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PROJECT COSTS

1000

10 MW

12.15M$, 25 MW 5.25 M$ 25 MW 0.82 M$ 2.5 MW

100 MW 1000 MW 17.75 M$ 38 M$,150 MW 79.30 MW 38.90 M$,170 MW 13.65 M$ 20.05 M$ 32.5 M$,110 MW 60.5 MW 65 MW 29.93 M$,105 MW 11.78 M$ 21.43 M$ 16.85 MW 65 MW 53.57 M$,99 MW 40 50 60 Mio US$ 58 M$,70 MW

2.80 M$ 7 MW 2.68 M$ 5.35MW 2.52 M$ 4.85MW 3

100

1 MW

21M$,25 MW

0.5

2 1 Mio US$

H [m]

10

0.1 MW

The cost includes turbines, governors, valves, cooling and drainage water systems, cranes, workshop, generators, transformers, earthing system, control equipment, telecommunications systems and auxiliary systems. 0.1 MW 1 10 Q [m3/s]

Cost of electrical and mechanical equipment in a powerhouse per unit with a Pelton Turbine (data series 2002-2008) Valid for 2009

1 MW 100

1000

Figure 2: Costs of E&M equipment in powerhouses per unit with Pelton turbine

equipment not suitable for use in powerhouses are not included. The global amount of contracts obtained from suppliers comprises the items mentioned above with a few exceptions (mainly due to the fact that some suppliers only provide either electrical and mechanical equipment and not both). However, these main suppliers are always in consortium meaning the global cost of E&M is not affected. The data, which is presented on Table 1, corresponds to 81 hydro power projects in 32 countries. The data comprises approximately 28 hydro power projects in America (90% Latin America), 9 in Europe, 35 in Asia and 9 in Africa. From these, 33 are from 2007 and 16 from 2008. The remaining 40 corresponds to the period between 2002 and 2006. The hydro plants have net heads ranging from 9m to 800m and power capacities from 0.5MW up to the 800MW per unit. Taking into account the cost inflation over the past few years, the costs of E&M equipment for the period 2002-2008 have been revised and updated. These include different factors such as price of metals, project region, index of prices, exchange rates, escalation of prices and cost confidence.

M ETHODOLOGY
The result of this analysis is the availability of 81 points to be plotted with data on installed power capacity (P in MW), net head (H in m), design discharge (Q in m3/sec), number of units and total costs of E&M equipment (Cost in million US$) in order to provide 81 points per generating unit. These are divided by type of turbine: Pelton, Francis, Kaplan, Kaplan-Rohr, Bulb or Francis pump-turbine. Figure 1 shows the 81 points available on E&M equipment plotted by global costs and installed power capacity. A general tendency is found as a function of the power capacity, which serves as a reference for estimation of E&M equipment in generating costs under the proposed formula: Generating cost for E&M equipment in Million US$, 12/2008. where P is the power or installed capacity in MW. Cost = 1.1948P0.7634

Formulae based on parameters such as head, design discharge, power and/or number of units have a large range of variablity in the result of costs, therefore they should be limited depending on different range of heads, discharge, etc. These type of formulae cannot be easy applied for cost estimation of E&M equipment of the different type of units. Therefore, the methodology followed here is based on the appliance of cost estimation diagrams, which are considered more suitable taking into consideration the parameters available for a hydro plant. In order to plot the data the envelope curves for the three main types of turbine were defined according to available information from manufacturers. The rated flow and net head determine the set of turbine types applicable to the site and the flow environment. Suitable turbines are those for which the given rated flow and net head plot within the operational envelopes (the envelope curves are described on Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5). A point defined as above by the flow and the head will usually plot within several of these envelopes. It should be remembered that the envelopes vary from manufacturer to manufacturer and those plotted here are the usual operational envelope curve for Pelton, Francis, Kaplan, Kaplan-Rohr and Bulb turbines. Together with the defined envelope curves for the range of head and discharges, the additional scale for installed power has been plotted. This means the parameters of head (H), discharge (Q) and power (P) are available for each plotting position. These are defined together with a cost per unit. The different points define the probable curve of cost among the available points.

DIAGRAMS FOR ESTIMATING E&M EQUIPMENT COSTS


Costs of E&M equipment for hydro plants with Pelton units The available data comprises 20 plotting positions for HPPs with Pelton units (see Figure 2). The range for determination of costs starts from a lower cost of US$0.5M for an installed power below 1MW to an upper cost of US$60M for 200MW installed power.
FEBRUARY 2009 INTERNATIONAL WATER POWER & DAM CONSTRUCTION

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10 MW

100 MW

1000 MW

8.33 M$ 12.67 MW 13.50 M$ 40 MW 20 15 10

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PROJECT COSTS

Table 1 Hydro power parameters and E&M cost statistics for data series, years 2002-2008.
# Year Country Hydropower Project Power P [MW] Unit Net Head Power H [m] Pu [MW] 65 106 7.7 5 99 85 110 8.5 12.5 12.7 60.5 65 80 45 2.1 7.4 5.9 2.7 2.6 4.0 4.8 5.4 3.4 16.9 32 400 150 40 34.5 60 14.5 7 380 79.3 36 5.5 7.6 2.5 25 240 150 87 9.5 81.6 25 70 81 55 28.5 74 600 700 128 650 714 700 14.4 82.5 125 72 75 115 512 248 130 170 30 51 62.6 125 105 115 250 255 254 70 125 28 24 25 15 7 475 443 42 17 345 220 600 90 90 293 662 516 160 200 81 145 77 114 80 93 81 144 120 502 55 130 87.5 250 149 130 66.5 240 629 802 120 73 58 297 795 365 800 57 106 344 120 191 162 123 9.2 200 318 138 20 210 216 140 30 105 22.8 13.9 15.1 600 145 125 72 800 17 22 150 50 487 308 500 162 141 12 27 6.5 5.9 590 44 75 Design Flow Q [m3/s] 30 50 45 60 32 126 45 22 32 19.5 21 29 116 75 6 18 18 8.5 11.4 15 8 9 10 20 210 1080 600 23 81 108 50 7 140 44 70 15 30 1 17.6 144 72 170 20 52.5 45 82.4 120 206 1500 28 1760 2400 3220 1440 2280 4095 118 180 1340 28600 27500 135 400 230 406 75 1200 1375 90 3000 92 180 224 740 840 700 5250 1500 1500 10 80 22 Unit Flow Qu [m3/s] 15 25 22.5 30 32 42 22.5 11 16 6.5 10.5 14.5 58 25 3 6 9 2.8 3.8 5 3 3 4 10 70 360 200 11.5 27 54 25 3.5 70 11 35 7.5 15 1 8.8 72 24 170 10 26.3 22.5 41.2 60 51.5 375 28 220 600 805 360 380 585 59 90 670 650 625 22.5 400 230 203 25 300 275 45 300 23 45 56 185 210 700 525 500 500 5 40 11 E&M Contract/ Projected Cost [Mio.] [US$] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 2008 2007 2004 2007 2008 2008 2006 2006 2008 2008 2003 2003 2007 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2005 2007 2008 2002 2007 2005 2008 2006 2004 2007 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2005 2006 2007 2004 2006 2008 2005 2003 2006 2002 2002 2008 2008 2007 2006 2007 2008 2008 2005 2007 2007 2006 2005 2004 2007 2002 2002 2007 2008 2008 2008 2005 2008 2008 Pucara Cheves III Poechos I Poechos II Machu Picchu II Santa Rita El Platanal Nicaragua Larreynaga El Salto YY Pakistan Daral Khawar Allai Khwar Duber Khwar Madian Gabral Kalam Turkey Umut-1 Umut-2 Umut-3 Ege-1 Ege-2 Ege-3 Yaprak-1 Yaprak-2 Basak Tuna Uzuncayir Ilisu Borcka Akocak Akkoy I Laos Nam Pha Rwanda Nyabarango Madagascar Sahanivotry South Africa Lima Nepal Upper Tamakoshi Middle Marsyangdi Kenya Tana1 Tana2 Armenia Gegharot Austria Obervellach II Limberg II Kopswerk II El Salvador Cerrn Grande, Unit 3 Chile Lircay La Confluencia Ecuador Pilatn-Sarapullo Toachi-Alluriqun Mazar Abitagua Germany Rheinfelden Waldeck I China Jinping II Three Gorges Right Bank Caojie Dagang-shan Xiaowan Longtan Brasil Anta Pedra do Cavalo So Salvador San Antonio Jira Iceland Krahnjukr Canada Revelstoke, Unit 5 Portugal Picote II Alqueva II Romania Lotru-Ciunget Congo Imboulou Uganda Bujagali Argentina Los Caracoles Sudan Merowe Gilgel Gibe II Ethiopia Beles Iran Sia Bishe Karen IV Upper Gotvand Russia Uglich Motygin-skaya USA Cannelton Smithland Rep. Dominicana Pinalito Mexico El Gallo Chilatn Peru 130 212 15.4 10 99 255 220 17 25 38 121 130 160 135 4.1 22.1 11.8 8.2 7.8 11.9 9.69 10.7 6.85 33.7 96 1200 300 80 103.5 120 29 14 1520 317.2 72 11 15.2 2.5 50 480 450 87 19 163.2 50 140 162 220 114 74 4800 2800 512 2600 4284 4900 28.8 165 250 3150 3300 690 512 248 260 510 120 255 125.2 1250 420 460 1000 1020 1016 70 1250 84 72 50 30 14 40 45 12 8 50 77 0 11.2 16 25 21.8 32 51.6 36 2.2 12 8 3.8 3.4 5.8 4.7 5 3.5 15.2 0 0 0 0 0 49.5 16.9 3.5 372.3 71 0 8.4 12.6 0.8 0 0 0 42 12 37.5 39.2 108.2 0 88.8 0 0 0 198 0 0 0 0 25.7 0 0 318* 636* 0 82.6 0 0 0 69 87 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18.7 11.7 [EUR] 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 164.5 67.6 18 24.7 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 16.2 33 60 0 0 0 0 0 39.9 0 52 24 120 0 51 75 60 81 0 32 30 0 0 99 0 46 94 77.8 0 0 0 250 60 77 64.5 22 23 24.9 350 40.9 39.6 7 0 0 42.86 49.01 14.40 8.57 53.57 80.00 65.00 12.92 16.00 25.00 27.30 40.10 55.29 41.59 2.40 12.86 8.57 4.11 3.60 6.17 5.04 5.36 3.75 23.56 49.43 246.75 101.26 27.00 37.00 49.50 18.05 5.60 398.89 71.00 29.90 9.00 13.52 0.82 24.30 80.85 114.00 45.00 12.00 39.99 42.00 115.93 59.77 95.14 78.00 35.88 567.96 440.00 153.00 336.00 540.00 700.00 29.64 64.00 75.00 365.76 636.00 148.30 95.26 69.00 141.00 116.70 87.63 113.10 48.21 525.00 119.70 115.50 193.24 239.80 248.40 32.37 350.00 61.35 59.37 10.50 19.80 12.40 Pelton Francis Kaplan Kaplan Pelton Francis Pelton Francis Francis Pelton Pelton Pelton Francis Francis Francis Francis Francis Francis Francis Francis Pelton Pelton Francis Pelton Francis Francis Francis Pelton Francis Francis Francis Pelton Francis-pump Pelton Francis Francis Francis Pelton Pelton Francis-pump Pelton-pump Francis Francis Francis Pelton Pelton Francis Francis Kaplan-Rohr Francis-pump Francis Francis Kaplan Francis Francis Francis Kaplan Francis Kaplan Bulb Bulb Francis Francis Francis Francis-pump Pelton Kaplan Kaplan Francis Francis Pelton Francis Francis-pump Francis Francis Kaplan Kaplan Rohr Rohr Pelton Francis Francis 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 4 4 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 1 8 4 4 4 6 7 2 2 2 12 19 6 1 1 2 3 4 5 2 10 4 4 4 4 4 1 10 3 3 2 2 2 21.43 24.50 7.20 4.29 53.57 26.67 32.50 6.46 8.00 8.33 13.65 20.05 27.64 13.86 1.20 4.29 4.29 1.37 1.20 2.06 2.52 2.68 1.88 11.78 16.48 82.25 50.63 13.50 12.33 24.75 9.03 2.80 99.72 17.75 14.95 4.50 6.76 0.82 12.15 40.43 38.00 45.00 6.00 20.00 21.00 57.96 29.89 23.79 19.50 35.88 71.00 110.00 38.25 84.00 90.00 100.00 14.82 32.00 37.50 30.48 33.47 24.72 95.26 69.00 70.50 38.90 21.91 22.62 24.11 52.50 29.93 28.88 48.31 59.95 62.10 32.37 35.00 20.45 19.79 5.25 9.90 6.20 E&M Updated Contract/ Type of Cost 12/2008 Tubine [Mio. US$] # of units E&M Updated Cost 12/2008 [Mio. US$] per Unit

Reference sources for contract costs were existing publications, journals, calls for tenders, websites of E&M equipment suppliers Reference sources for projected costs were existing reports of studies and national authorities. The contract cost for San Antonio and Jira is for 12 and 19 units respectively.

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PROJECT COSTS

1000

10 MW

100 MW

1000 MW

4.29 M$, 7.37 MW

24.72 M$, 115 MW

84 M$, 650 MW 90 M$, 714 MW

1.88 M$, 3.43 MW

9 M$, 14.5 MW 12.33 M$, 34.5 MW

14.95 M$, 36 MW 9.9 M$,15 MW 24.11 M$, 62.6 MW 23.79 M$, 55 MW

1.37 M$, 2.7 MW 1.2 M$, 2.07 MW

45 M$, 87 MW 50.63 M$, 150 MW 69 M$, 248 MW

100

1 MW

82.25 M$, 400 MW 95.26 M$, 512 MW

6.76 M$, 7.6 MW 8 M$, 12.5 MW

4.5 M$, 5.5 MW 4.29 M$, 5.88 MW 6.21 M$, 7 MW 6.46 M$, 8.5 MW

1.2 M$, 2.59 MW

2.06 M$, 3.95 MW

16.48 M$, 32 MW

32 M$, 82.5 MW

120 Mio US$

52.5 M$, 125 MW

110 100

H [m]

0.5

1 Mio US$

10

0.1 MW

10

15 20 25 30

The cost includes turbines, governors, valves, cooling and drainage water systems, cranes, workshop, generators, transformers, earthing system, control equipment, telecommunications systems and auxiliary systems. 0.1 MW

Cost of electrical and mechanical equipment in a powerhouse per unit with Francis Turbine (data series 2002-2008) valid for 2009
1 MW 100 Q [m3/s]

10

1000

Figure 3: Costs of E&M equipment in powerhouses per unit with Francis turbine Figure 4: Costs of E&M equipment in powerhouses per unit with Kaplan, Kaplan-Rohr and Bulb turbine
1000
10 MW 100 MW 1000 MW

The cost includes turbines, governors, valves, cooling and drainage water systems, cranes, workshop, generators, transformers, earthing system, control equipment, telecommunications systems and auxiliary systems.

Cost of electrical and mechanical equipment in a powerhouse per unit with Kaplan, Kaplan-Rohr, Bulb Turbine (data series 2002-2008) Valid for 2009

5 Mio US$

100

1 MW

10

15 20

H [m]

7.20 M$, 7.7 MW

14.82 M$, 14.4 MW

10

0.1 MW

19.79 M$, 24 MW

0.1 MW 1 10 Q [m3/s]

1 MW 100

1000

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FEBRUARY 2009 INTERNATIONAL WATER POWER & DAM CONSTRUCTION

10 MW

100 MW

5.36 M$, 5 MW

22.62 M$, 51 MW 38.25 M$, 128 MW 21.91 M$, 30 MW 33.47 M$, 72 MW 30.48 M$, 75 MW 32.37 M$, 70 MW 19.50 M$, 20.45 M$, 28.5 MW 28 MW

30 35 M$, 125 MW 37.5 M$, 125 MW

40 Mio US$

1000 MW

10 MW

100 MW

40

50

60

70

80

90

1000 MW

24.5 M$, 106 MW 20 M$, 81.6 MW 71 M$, 600 MW 28.88 M$, 115 MW 26.67 M$, 85 MW 60 M$, 13.86 M$, 45 MW 255 MW 27.64 M$, 80 MW 29.89 M$, 81 MW 62 M$, 254 MW 24.75 M$, 60 MW 6 M$, 9.5 MW

100 M$, 700 MW 110 M$, 700 MW

PROJECT COSTS

1000

10 MW

100 MW

1000 MW

66 M$, 380 MW 48.31 M$, 250 MW 54 M$, 240 MW

30 M$, 74 MW

100

1 MW 60 M$, 130 MW

H [m]

20 Mio US$

10

0.1 MW

30

40

The cost includes turbines, governors, valves, cooling and drainage water systems, cranes, workshop, generators, transformers, earthing system, control equipment, telecommunications systems and auxiliary systems. 0.1 MW 1 10 Q [m3/s]

Cost of electrical and mechanical equipment in a powerhouse per unit with a Francis Pump Turbine (data series 2002-2008) Valid for 2009

1 MW 100

1000

Figure 5: Costs of E&M equipment in powerhouses per unit with Francis pump-turbine

Costs of E&M equipment for hydro plants with Francis units The available data comprises 43 plotting positions for plants equipped with Francis units (Figure 3). The determination of costs ranges from US$0.5M for 1MW installed capacity up to a maximum cost of US$120M for an 800MW plant. Costs for hydro plants with Kaplan, Kaplan-Rohr, Bulb Units The available data comprises 14 plotting positions for plants equipped with Kaplan/Rohr/Bulb units (see Figure 4). The range for determination of costs on E&M equipment starts from a lower cost of US$5M for an installed power of 5MW up to US$40M for an installed power of 150MW. Costs hydro plants with Francis pump-turbine units The available data comprises five plotting positions for plants equipped with Kaplan, Kaplan-Rohr and Bulb units (Figure 5). The range for determination of costs on E&M equipment starts from a lower cost of US$20M for an installed power of 70MW up to US$70M for installed power of 380MW.

The original data set was composed of 89 plotting positions, but eight points have unsuitable locations in the diagrams, particularly the Francis turbine and pump-turbine charts. Such points were not used. As an example, the cost of E&M equipment for La Muela II pumped storage project in Spain according to the information reported in July 2008 was US$55M for four units of 213MW each, a head of 520m and a unit discharge of 48m3/sec. It will mean a cost per unit of around US$14M. It is considered that some factors influence the cost estimation of these units, leading to an underestimated contract cost value. Seven points of projects awarded in the last two years had similar underestimated contract cost. The causes for these underestimated values were not found. An improvement in data available could be performed taking into account the type of turbine axis. This can have a significant impact on E&M equipment costs. IWP & DC

Cesar Adolfo Alvarado-Ancieta, Civil Engineer, Dipl.Ing., M. Sc., Hydropower, Dams, Hydraulic Engineering Email: cesalv@yahoo.com

C ONCLUSIONS
Diagrams have been developed to estimate water to wire power plant equipment costs within an accuracy of 5 to 10 %. Equipment costs are currently escalating at about 8 to 10% per annum for projects from 2008. Price escalation of hydro power projects from the year 2002 can reach between 70 and 80% for a period of seven years. It is expected, however, that inflation costs will come down as a result of the current credit crisis. The diagrams presented were found suitable for a close estimation of costs of E&M equipment per unit under a comparison of costs from current hydro power projects. These diagrams have been developed to provide a quick way to determine costs of electrical and mechanical equipment (at pre-investment, due diligence study, pre-feasibility and feasibility level) based on main parameters such as head, design discharge and power. The value of the cost curves in the diagrams needs to be updated each year.
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References
[1] Gordon, J.L. and Penman, A.C. (1979). Quick estimating techniques for small hydro potential. Water Power & Dam Construction, V. 31, p. 46-51. [2] Gordon, J.L. (1981). Estimating hydro stations costs. Water Power & Dam Construction, V. 33, p. 31-33. [3] Gordon, J.L. (1983). Hydropower costs estimates. Water Power & Dam Construction, V. 35, p. 30-37. [4] Gordon, J.L. and Noel, C.R. (1986). The economic limits of small and low-head hydro. Water Power & Dam Construction, V. 38, p. 23-26. [5] Nachtnebel, H.P. (1981): Bewertung der Kleinwasserkraftwerke, in: sterreichische Wasserwirtschaft, Jahrgang 33, Heft 11/12. [6] Aggidis, G.A. - Luchinskaya, E. - Rothschild, R. - Howard, D.C. (2008). Estimating the costs of small-scale hydropower for the progressing of world hydro development. Hydro 2008, Ljubljana, Slovenia - The International Journal on Hydropower & Dams.

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