Chng 0.

Nhng vn c bn v Thng mi quc t

Kinh t quc t: L thuyt v Chnh sch Paul R. Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

August 6, 20
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Ti sao t do ha thng mi l vn quan trng?

Lin kt pht trin Firm Affiliate (to ngun vn, spillover) Thc y thng mi quc t (TNCs, XK) Tng trng kinh t v pht trin x hi Tng mc nh hng v chnh tr (EU - M)

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

August 6, 20
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Thng mi quc t, 1995 - 2003

Exports 1995-00 2002 2003 7,0 7,0 9,5 6,0 6,0 7,0 8,5 4,5 9,5 3,0 -2,5 -0,5 1,5 1,0 8,0 4,5 4,0 0,5 0,5 World Latin America Western Europe European Union (15) 1,5 North America a
7,0 10,5 10,0 6,0 6,0 7,5 5,5 4,5 4,0

Imports 1995-00 2002 2003

3,0 4,0 -7,0 0,5 0,0 7,5 8,5 1,5 6,5 5,0 5,5 0,5 1,5 1,5 11,5 11,0 7,0 5,0

12,5 C./E. Europe/Baltic States/CIS

10,5 12,0 Asia 8,0 5,0 Japan 8,0 9,5 Six East Asian traders

a Excluding Mexico throughout this report.

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

August 6, 20
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Tnh hnh thng mi quc t ca Vit Nam

70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 -10000

19 90

19 92

19 94

19 96

19 98

20 00

20 02
Tng

Xut Khu

Nhp Khu

Cn cn TM

Thng d TM = XK > NK;

Thm ht TM = NK > XK
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KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

20 04

August 6, 20

Kinh t quc t s cp n vn g?

S can thip ca Chnh ph i vi hot ng thng

mi quc t, bao gm:

Vai tr ca chnh ph trong vic qun l hot ng

thng mi v u t quc t. Chnh ph c th phn bit i x vi cc nhm cng ty khc nhau v thng mi i vi ngnh (csht). Chnh ph cng s qun l ngun ngoi t trong thc hin giao dch TMQT

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

August 6, 20
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Kinh t quc t s cp n vn g? (tt)

Li ch t thng mi quc t
Ai s c li? Nhiu ngi s e ngi v hng ho nhp
khu m c th c sn xut trong nc. Khi cc nc bun bn hng ho cho nhau th c hai u da trn nguyn tc cng t li ch. Thng mi v phn phi thu nhp
TMQT c th s lm thit hi n mt s i tng cc nc (XK v NK). Thng mi QT din ra da trn s khc bit v cng ngh v tin lng cc nc .
KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

August 6, 20
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Kinh t quc t s cp n vn g? (tt)

Hnh thc thng mi (Ai bn ci g cho ai?)

iu kin ngun lc s quyt nh hnh thc
thng mi i vi cc loi hng ho, dch v. C hai hnh thc thng mi chnh:
Interindustry trade ph thuc vo s khc bit v hng ho dch v gia cc nc (go, xng du). Intraindustry trade ph thuc vo qui m th trng cng nh c im hng ho ca cc nc (tm NL v ch bin).
KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH
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August 6, 20

Kinh t quc t s cp n vn g? (tt)

Mc thng mi gia cc nc ph thuc vo:

Chnh ph cc nc c gng bo v mt s ngnh hng no
trong nc trc s cnh tranh quc t. (ng, vin thng) Chin lc pht trin kinh t
Chnh sch ca cc nc pht trin tp trung vo pht trin cng nghip. Chnh sch ca cc nc ang pht trin tp trung vo y mnh cng nghip ho nhm thay th hng ho nhp khu.

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

August 6, 20
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Kinh t quc t s cp n vn g? (tt)

n nh t gi ngoi hi

trng tm ca thng mi quc t. V d: USD/VND tng, gim Ri ro ca th trng tin t Khng hong kinh t, chnh tr

Vai tr ca thay i t gi ngoi hi c xem l

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

August 6, 20
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Phn tch cung cu

B. Cung Giaca ( la/n v ) S= ng cung

3600

c 2000 2000 w t d 1000 1000 e v

D= ng c u 400 z

40

65

15 L ng ( 1000 v )

40

L ng (1000 v)

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

August 6, 20
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Th trng xe gn my
Giaca ( la / v )

S = ng cung 3600

2000

c h

400

g
40

D = ng c u

L ng (1000 v )

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

August 6, 20
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Quan h gia SX v TM
A. Thtr ng xeg nm a y My B. Thtr ng xe g nm a ycu a qu c t C. Thtr ng xe g n ma y cu a ca c n c co n la i Giaca( la/v) SUS= ng cung cu a My A Giacatr c th ng m a i cu a My 2000 Sf= ng cung cu a ca c n c co n la i cu a th gi i Giaca( la/v) Giaca( la/v)

2000

Sx= ng cung xu t kh u cu a ca c n c co n la i trn th gi i

E 1000 C Nh p kh u B 1000 700 DUS= ng c u cu a My D 1000 700 Dm= ng c u nh p kh u cu a My 50 L ng (1000 v) 25 I

Xu t kh uJ Giacath gi i coth ng ma i H

15

40

65

L ng (1000 v)

50

75

L ng (1000 v)

( Dm=DUS - SUS ) ( Sx =Sf - Df )

Df= ng c u cu a ca c n c co n la i cu a th gi i

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

August 6, 20
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