Chng 5

Chnh sch thng mi quc t

Paul R. Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Gii thiu
Chng ny s tp trung vo cc vn : - Chnh sch thng mi ca cc nc ang pht trin (ng ca, m ca) - Tc ng ca cc chnh sch TM? Ai s t li ch v b thit hi t cc chnh sch TM? - Li ch v chi ph ca chnh sch bo h TM? - Quc gia nn p dng chnh sch TM no?

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Chnh sch ng ca nn kinh t

c im ca nn kinh t ng - Pht trin theo hng t p ng nhu cu - Ch xut khu sau khi tha mn nhu cu trong nc Khng khuyn khch u t nc ngoi, ch yu vay vn sn xut v nhp khu

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

Slide 3-3 Slide 5-3

Chnh sch ng ca nn kinh t

Ti sao, nn kinh t ng ph bin cc nc chm v ang pht trin Mi c lp, cha c quan h ngoi giao Quan im v dn tc, s b bc lt, l thuc vo nc ngoi Trnh nh hng ca khng hong kinh t th gii (mang tnh chu k (gi du 1973)

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

Slide 3-4 Slide 5-4

u im ca chnh sch ng ca
Tc pht trin kinh t chm, nhng bn vng
Trng hp: n trong thp k 50-70, GDP: 4% Cc nc M latinh m ca (GDP 9%) do khng hong gim GDP cn 1-2%, hoc Thi lan (0,6% -> 0%) Khai thc ngun lc trong nc S sp ca chnh sch ng ca (60s) ti cc nc M latinh v sau Chu

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Nguyn nhn tht bi ca chnh sch ng ca

Hc thuyt li th so snh ca
David Ricardo Hn ch thu ht vn, cng ngh (60s) ti cc nc M latinh v sau Chu N nc ngoi nhp khu hng ha Qui m th trng nh, tht nghip

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Chnh sch m ca nn kinh t

M rng quan h i ngoi (thng mi quc t) Hi nhp nn kinh t khu vc v th gii Thu ht ngun vn v cng ngh nc ngoi Khai thc ngun lc trong nc, vic lm v thu nhp Ch tiu o lng chnh sch m ca
m kinh t = (X + M)/GDP

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

Slide 3-7 Slide 5-7

Hn ch ca chnh sch m ca
Nn kinh t l thuc vo nc ngoi (XK, NK) Mt cn i gia ngnh hng xut khu v ni a
dn n pht trin chnh lch gia thnh th v nng thn (di c)

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

Slide 3-8 Slide 5-8

Cc chnh sch TM

Chnh sch TM
Hn ch TM Gi Thu XNK Sn lng Quota, VER Gi M rng TM Sn lng Khuyn khch NK

Tr cp XK

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Phn tch chnh sch thu quan - Tariff

Vai tr ca thu quan - iu tit hot ng xut nhp khu (Price Demand) - Tng thu NSNN (Lo # 30%) - Bo h sn xut trong nc (vd: t) - Cng c phn bit i x trong TMQT (M-EU: gim 30-50%) Gim thu thc y TMQT (ASEAN, EU.)

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Phn tch thu quan c bn (tt)

Phn loi theo phng php tnh thu - Tnh theo s lng (specific tariffs)
Vd: tnh thu 1$/ xe p NK - Tnh theo gi tr (ad valorem tariffs) Vd: tnh thu 20% i vi mi xe p NK - Tnh hn hp: gm 2 cch tnh trn

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Phn tch thu quan c bn (tt)

Phn loi theo mc thu - Mc thu ti a: i vi 1 hh t cc ngun NK khc nhau Mc thu ti thiu: mc thu phi np ti thiu Thu hn ngch: kt hp 2 mc thu trn Thu u i: gia cc nc vd: VN -> Nga phi chu mc thu 75%, v 0% i vi campuchia, lo Min thu: trin lm, hi ch, gia cng, cu tr
August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Mc thu i vi hng cng ngh ca cc nc thuc WTO

% 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

42

25 17 14 9 6 3

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000 Nm

Ngun: WTO
KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

August 6, 2013

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Chng trnh CEPT* ca Vit Nam, 1996-2006

% 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 12,7 12,6 12,1 11,9 11,4 10,9 10,7 9,3 7,4 5,3 3,0

19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
*Common Effective Preferential Tariff: Chng trnh ct gim thu quan c hiu lc chung

Nm

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Chng trnh CEPT

CEPT

Danh mc sp gim thu NK (IL) Gim nhanh

Danh mc sp tm thi cha gim thut (TEL)

Danh mc sp Lai tr hon ton (GEL)

Danh mc nng sn Cha ch bin (SL)

Gim thng thng

- IL: Inclusion List - TEL: Temporary Exclusion List - GEL: General Exclusion List - SL: Sensitive List
August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Phn tch tc ng ca thu quan

Nc nh l nc khng th gy nh hng n gi c
th gii da theo cung, cu. V d: - VN gim lng go XK - VN gim NK nc hoa Phn tch tc ng ca thu quan da trn c s:
2 nc ln thng mi vi nhau 1 nc nh thng mi vi cc nc khc

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Tc ng ca thu quan (tt)

Gi s 2 nc ln thng mi vi nhau. Home nh thu 2$/chai ru NK
Tc ng - Nu Home l nc ln v khi nh thu th s nh hng

lm gi Foreign gim xung. - Nu Home l nc nh v khi nh thu, gi Foreign s khng b tc ng -> gi Home s tng ln ng bng lng Thu

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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o lng tc ng ca thu quan

Nc ln P P D S PT Pw PT* Nc nh D S

bc e

Pw + t
Pw

S1 S2 D 2 D 1

S1

S2 D 2

D1

Thng d TD = -( a, b, c, d) Thng d SX = + (a) Ngn sch thu thu ca CP = + (c,e)

Thng d TD = -( a, b, c, d) Thng d SX = + (a) Ngn sch thu thu ca CP = + (c)

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Cc bin php hn ch v s lng (Quantitative Restriction)

Vai tr ca cc bin php hn ch s lng Tham gia bo h th trng trong nc (phi thu) Phn bit i x iu tit hot ng xut nhp khu (phn bn) Tham gia iu chnh gi trn th trng Hnh thc hn ch Cm xut hoc nhp khu Giy php Hn ngch nhp khu (Quota) T nguyn hn ch xut khu (VER-Voluntary Export Restriction)
August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Chnh sch TM: Quota - hn ngch nhp khu

Quota nhp khu - Quota l hng ro phi thu quan nh hng trc tip n s lng hng ho c nhp khu Vd: M a quota nhp khu i vi qun o ca VN - Quota s c cp cho mt s cng ty di dng giy php. Vd: Mi cng ty ch c xut khu hoc nhp khu mt lng nht nh

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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o lng tc ng ca Quota NK
-Quota NK dn n tng
Thng d TD = -( a, b, c, d) Thng d SX = + (a) Quota rents (Cty NK) = + (c) P D S PNK Pw

gi hng ho nc nhp khu

-Cng ty c giy php NK - Li nhun ca vic KD

th h s nhp khu v bn li vi gi cao hn.

hng NK c xem Quota rents

S1
KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

S2 D 2

D1

August 6, 2013

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Hn ngch xut khu t nguyn - VER

Quota xut khu do chnh ph nc xut khu quy nh thng qua cc hip nh TM gia 2 nc VER s lm pht sinh chi ph nc NK do ph (giy php) thuc v nhng cng ty NK tng t nh Quota NK VER nhm gim bt thng d cn cn thng mi Qui nh i vi cc ngnh SX m mt s b phn ca sn phm hon chnh phi c sx trong nc (30%) Chnh sch ny thng c p dng cc nc ang pht trin.
August 6, 2013

T l ni a ho (local Content Requirements)

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Cc bin php ti chnh phi thu quan v th tc

(National Procument and non tariff-Financial measures)

K qu xut nhp khu

Vd: XK c ca VN => Nh NK (M) phi k qu v VN phi chia s khon k qu nu munXK => M Qun l ngoi hi v iu chnh t gi Thu, chi ngoi t phi thng qua NH Th tc lin quan n XNK Hng ro k thut: sc kho, an ton, v sinh TP

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Tr cp xut khu Export Subsidy

Tr cp xut khu trc tip hoc gin tip: - Chnh ph h tr mt khon ngn sch i vi mt cng ty khi xut khu hng ho. Khi , gi trong nc s cao hn gi nc ngoi tng ng vi khon tr cp. - C th tr cp theo cc hnh thc sau: li sut thp, tr gi XK, b l XK, cung cp CSHT, u t KHKT

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Nhng hn ch i vi tr cp xut khu

Dn n cnh tranh bt bnh ng trong TMQT Lm gim tnh hiu qu kinh t To s ch quan i vi Cty, c quyn Hn ch TMQT
Mt s lut chng tr cp: - M: 1897 - Cc thnh vin ca WTO s dng chnh sch thu

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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o lng tc ng ca tr cp xut khu

- Tm li: Tr cp xut khu s lm gi Trong nc (nc XK) tng ln v gi nc NK s thp hn. - So vi thu nhp khu, - Tr cp XK lm tng chi ngn sch ca chnh ph - Tr cp XK c th dn n s tranh chp TM gia cc nc nh bn ph gi
KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH Thng d TD = -( a + b) Thng d SX = + (a+ b + c) Ngn sch tr cp ca CP = - (b+ c+ d+ e+ f+ g) P
tr cp

PTN Pw PNN

b e

c
f g

Xut khu

Q
August 6, 2013

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H tr tn dng xut khu Export credit

Lp cc qu bo him xut khu

Nhm m bo kh nng thanh ton Lp qu d tr nng sn xut khu Li sut thp => mua v d tr khi gi thp Cp tn dng cho nc nhp khu Cho nc NK vay mua hng ho (my bay)

August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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Tng hp tc ng ca cc chnh sch TM

Tc ng Th.d SX Th.d TD Ngn sch Chnh ph Thu Tng gim Tng Tr cp XK Tng Gim Gim Quota NK Tng Gim Hn ngch XK Tng Gim

Khng i Khng i

Phc li nn Khng xc Gim kinh t nh (nc nh b gim)

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

Khng xc Gim nh (nc nh b gim)

August 6, 2013

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Tm tt chng 5
- Thu quan dn n s chnh lch gia gi trong v ngoi nc. S tng gi trong nc NK c th bng hoc thp hn mc thu, ph thuc vo nc ln hay nh. - Li ch v thit hi ca cc chnh sch thng mi c o lng thng qua thng d SX, tiu dng v Ngn sch ca chnh ph. - Phc li nn kinh t c th chia thnh 2 b phn: + Hiu qu Sx v tiu dng (b + d) - i vi trng hp Quota NK hay VER, chnh ph nc NK s khng thu c bt c khon no.
August 6, 2013

KHOA KINH T & QUN TR KINH DOANH

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