HIGH

Supplier
- capable on transportation for distribution - capable on raw material prices

HIGH

MEDIUM

Entry Barrier
- high investment - brand identity - access to distributor - economic scale

Competitor
- less competitor - moderate rivalry - better local knowledge

MEDIUM

Buyer
- price sensitivity - buyer information - limited choices

n transportation for distribution n raw material prices

HIGH

Substitutes
- substitutes product in inferior

l knowledge

Deviden Growth Deviden Paid Share Deviden per Share Growth Average PDB growth IDR IDR 2012 613,032,000,000 7,662,900,000 80.00 31% 45% 6.23% IDR IDR 2011 421,460,000,000 7,662,900,000 55.00 58%

Basic PER Industry Sectoral Company

PER 16.69 16.60 16.48

EPS 176 176 176

176 21% 26%

139 22%

108 -8%

PER Model

Forecast 3 4

5 493.5

EPS 214.2 203.8 276.6 429.3 industry PER (refer to Bloomberg dated Nov 19, 2012) Forecasted Stock Price in 2017 Dividend yield Total Dividends 44.0%

Total future stock value in 2017 Per share value

IDR IDR

2010 176,247,000,000 7,662,900,000 23.00

Year

D0

A g D0(1+g)^n 80.00 100.80 127.01

B PV

C (D3/k)-g

2012 2013 IDR 80.00 6.23% 26% 2014 IDR 100.80 6.23% 26% 2015 IDR 127.01 6.23% 26%

94.89 112.55 ###### 207.44

P0 = A + B ###### g k D3 P0 growth income based on EPS growth Indonesia PDB growth as a expected return stock price in nonsonstant growth rate expected stock price

Price 2,937.44 2,921.60 2,900.00

117 68%

37

Forecast 3 4

5 493.5

6 601.5 23.0 13,834

214.2 203.8 276.6 429.3 ER (refer to Bloomberg dated Nov 19, 2012) d Stock Price in 2017 44.0%

ield ends

976 14,810 7,419

e stock value in 2017

alue