Frontier of Environmental Science

December 2012, Volume 1, Issue 1, PP.1-6

The Uncertainties of the Effects in Hydrology

under Climate Change
Leihua Dong
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Email: dongleihua@yahoo.cn

Abstract
Climate change has great effects on hydrological processes, which has been a hot topic during the researches with respect to
hydrology and water resources. However, it is unavoidable that many uncertainty factors are generated during the process of
assessing the effect. Based on the process for the effect assessment of climate change to hydrology, the sources of uncertainties can
be divided to two categories that are the uncertainties in the process of climate prediction and the uncertainties in the process of
hydrological evaluation. Afterwards, the specific uncertainties belong to two main uncertainties are illustrated in detail. At last,
according to the researchs related to the uncertainty problem of climate change and hydrological modeling, the methods used in
these researches are summarized in this paper.
Keywords: Climate Change; Hydrological Influences; Uncertainty Analysis

430072

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1990

1996
2001 2007 4

(GCMs)

[1,2]

The study is financially supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

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1.1

---

IPCC
-

--
(AOGCM)
(EMIC)IPCC
40
Hadley HADCM3 NCAR2PCM
ECHAM5/MPI2OM

(GCMs)[3,4]
--
--

Lebel
1960-1990 GCM
[5][6]
1961-1990 5
5 [7]

1.2

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()
[8]
IPCC IS92 [9] SRES [10,11]
A1A2B1 B2 A1 21
A2
B1 B2
[12]

1.3

GCMs
(RCMs) RCMs
GCMs
3 [13]

[14]

[15]

2.1

[16]

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2.2
Beven [17]

[18]

3.1

[19,20]
[21,22]

[23]

3.2
IPCC 40 4

[24-26]

3.3

[27][28][29-31]

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Email: dongleihua@yahoo.cn

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