25 8

2010 8

Vol125 No1
8
Aug. , 2010

JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES

50 a

1, 2

, ,

( 11 , 510640;
21 , 210098;
31 , 510275)

: 1956 2005
, M ann 2Kendall

R / S ,
: 50 a , 4 a7 9 a11 13 a16
22 a 4 ;
,

, ; ,
,

50 a , ,

,
: ; ; ; ; ;
: P3331 1 : A : 1000 - 3037 ( 2010 ) 08 - 1365 - 10

,
,

[1]

,
,

[ 2 24 ]

, ,

35 636 km , ,

, ,

[5]

, ,

, ,

[ 6 29 ]

, M ann 2Kendall
R / S ,
,

: 2009- 11- 18; : 2010- 04- 19

: ( 2008490511) ;
( 50839005)
: ( 1979- ) , , , , , GIS
E 2mail: wangzhl@ scut. edu. cn

1366

25

1
111

1956 2005

25 , ;
5

, ;
[ 10 ]
( GIMM S)
, 1981 - 07 2005 - 12,
8 km 8 km ENSO (NOAA ES2
RL ) ENSO (M ultivariate ENSO Index, M E I) , SO I ( Southern
[ 11 ]
O scillation Index) ,M E I ENSO
;
Wolf
( ftp: ftp. ngdc. noaa. gov / STP / SOLAR DATA / SUNSPOT_NUMBERS)
112
11211 M ann 2Kendall
M ann 2Kendall ( M 2K )

M 2K ,
[ 12 ]
[ 12 ]
M 2K [ 12 ]
11212
, ,
,
[ 13 ]
Morlet , 0,
11213 R / S
R / S ( Rescaled Range Analysis) ,
, R / S
[ 14 ]

Hurst H [ 0, 1 ] , H = 015, ,
, ; H > 015, , H 1,
; H < 015, , , H 0,

[ 15 ]

2
211

1 , 1 , 5678
4 , 55% , 1212 ,
212
1 50 a 3 1 ,
M 2K ,
,
0105 ; , 0105 ;

: 50 a

1367

1
Fig11 Monthly distribution of the runoff in the Dongjiang R iver Basin

1
Table 1 Trend in the annual runoff in the Dongjiang R iver Basin

M 2K

01098

01024

- 01216

/108 m 3 a - 1

/108 m 3 a - 1

01217

01108

01030

01201

01115

01006

- 01335

- 01240

- 01044

,
, 1956
2005 ( 2 ) 2 , 1956 19621973 1985
1992 1998 , , 1963 19721986 1991
1999 2005 , ,
, ( 2 ) , , 3
1963 1972 , 1973 1985 ;

, 4518% , , 3118%

2
Fig12 The accumulation anomalies curves of runoff series in the Dongjiang R iver Basin

2
Table 2 Phased distribution of the natural runoff in the Dongjiang R iver Basin

1956
1962

1963
1972

1973
1985

1986
1991

1992
1998

1999
2005

1956
2005

/108 m 3

157102

114143

182198

125139

178157

123168

149180

/ %

4181

- 23161

22114

- 16130

19120

- 17144

0100

/108 m 3

199194

162146

235174

172120

224125

163148

196172

/ %

1164

- 17142

19183

- 12146

13199

- 16190

0100

/10 m

264109

200137

276191

202112

274173

206141

240166

9174

- 16174

15107

- 16101

14116

- 14123

0100

/ %

1368

25

213

M 2K ( 3 ) , ,

, U F UB , U F UB
, ,
1973
, 0105 ; 1963
, 0105

3 M 2K
Fig13 M 2K test of the runoff series in the Dongjiang R iver Basin

214

3 Morlet , a
b , ( 4 ) , : 3
, 4 a7 9 a11 13 a16 22 a 4
, 7 9 a , 8 a ,
, 6 ; 11 13a ,
12 a; 20 80 , 7 9 a , 4a 11 13a ;

16 22 a ,
, 16 22 a , 4 a7
9 a11 13 a , ,

4
Fig14 W avelet variance of the runoff series in the Dongjiang R iver Basin

: 50 a

1369

215

R / S Hurst ( 5 ) , : R / S
Hurst 01780 7, 01753 5,
015, , , ,
, ,

, Hurst 01581 5, 015,

Hurst , , ,
, , , , ,
,

5 R / S
Fig15 R / S analysis results of the runoff series in the Dongjiang R iver Basin

3
311

3, :
; , , (
) ,

, 0101 ; M 2K ,
, 1973 ; 4 a;
5 18 a
3
Table 3 M 2K test and changing trend of clim atic factors in the Dongjiang R iver Basin

- 01795

- 41843 3 3

- 41899 3 3

- 11949

- 01094

- 01645 3 3

- 01657 3 3

M 2K

1973

1990 3

1980 3

- 41709 3 3

- 41308 3 3

51328 3 3

- 51947 3 3

- 01318

- 016 3 3

- 01610 3 3

01742 3 3

- 01756 3 3

1973 3

1969 3

1978 3

1990 3

1978 3

: 3 0105 ; 3 3 0101

1370

25

, 3
( 4) , 4 :
, 0101 ,
,

,
,

[7]

, , ,
,
, , , , , ;
,
,
,
4
Table 4 Correlation coefficients between clim atic factors and runoff series

01924 3 3

01434 3 3

- 01522 3 3

01934

33

01455

33

- 01483

33

01960

33

01496

33

- 01486

33

- 01199

- 01575 3 3

- 01475 3 3

- 01148

- 01021

- 01154

- 01548

33

- 01458 3 3

- 01162

- 01003

- 01494

33

33

- 01116

01060

- 01135

- 01474

: 3 3 0101

312

,

,

[ 16 217 ]

6 M E I

, M E I , 6 ,
1956 2005 8 , 1957 19581965 19671972 1973
1982 19831986 19881991 19931997 19982002 2004

2 a, 25124% ,
10 a, 2516% ,
, ; ,
7 a, 35125% ,
2 a, 19137% ,
, , , 2002 2004

6 M E I
Fig16 The relation of El N i o (ME I index) to annual runoff anomaly at Boluo Station

: 50 a

1371

313

, , ,
[ 18 ]
,
,
[ 18 ]
11 13 a 16 22 a , ( 11 a22 a )
, , , ,
50 a , 6 12 a
( - 01424, P < 0101 ) , ,
, , 19561967197919892002 ,
, , , 1961197319851997
,
,
, , ,

7 12 a
Fig17 The relation of sunspot numbers to Morlet wavelet transform real part with 12 a scale for Boluo Station runoff series

314

,
, ,
, 1982 2005 NDV I ( Nor2
m alized D ifference V egetation Index, ) , NDV I
, ,
[ 10 ]

8 NDV I , , 1982 2005 ,

NDV I 0 148 0 155 , 1986 , , ;
2000 , NDV I ,
2
- 0 1001 / a ( R = 0 1169 7, p < 0 105 )

, ,
[ 19 ]
NDV I
NDV I

, 0 1467 4 , 0 105
,

,
, ( NDV I) ,

1372

25

8 NDV I
Fig18 Changing trend of annual average NDV I in the Dongjiang R iver Basin during 1982 - 2005

4
( 1 )
,

; Morlet , , 4 a7 9 a
11 13 a16 22 a 4 , 7 9 a ; R / S
,
,
, ,
( 2 ) , ,
; , ,

: , , ,

, ,
,
( 3 ) , , , ,
, ;

( 4 ) (NDV I) ,
50 a , ,

,
,
( References) :
[ 1 ] , . [ J ]. , 2004, 14 ( 6 ) : 700 2704. [ ZHAO Xue
hua, HUANG Q iang. Research on impacting factors of runoff change in the upper Yellow R iver. A dvance in N atu ra l S ci2
ence, 2004, 14 ( 6) : 700 2704. ]

[ 2 ] , , , . 1956 2000 [ J ]. , 2007, 18 ( 1 ) : 29 233.

[ CAO J ian 2ting, Q IN Da2he, LUO Yong, et al. D ischarge changes of the Yangtze R iver in source area during 1956 2000. A dvance in W a ter S cience, 2007, 18 ( 1) : 29 233. ]
[ 3 ] , , . [ J ]. , 2006, 17 ( 6) : 853 2
858. [WANG Guo 2qing, ZHANG J ian2yun, HE Rui2m in. Impacts of environmental change on runoff in Fenhe R iver basin

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of m iddle Yellow R iver. A dvance in W ater Science, 2006, 17 ( 6) : 853 2858. ]

[ 4 ] , , , . 50 [ J ]. D : ,
2007, 37 ( 2) : 206 2214. [ D IN G Yong2jian, YE Bai2sheng, HAN Tian2ding, et al. Regional differences of clim ate and
runoff in western China over the past 50 years. Ch ina S cience D S eries: Ea rth S cience, 2007, 37 ( 2) : 206 2214. ]
[ 5 ] , , . [ J ]. , 2005, 23 ( 5) : 8 211. [ SH I
J iao 2zhi, CHEN Xiao 2hong, WU Tian. Study on rainfall and runoff change tendency and its causes in East R iver Valley.
Hyd roelectric Energy, 2005, 23 ( 5) : 8 211. ]

[ 6 ] , , . [ J ]. , 2010 ( 2) :
21 224. [WANG Zhao2li, CHEN Xiao 2hong, YANG Tao. Multip le tim e scales analysis of natural annual runoff series at
Boluo Station in the Dongjiang R iver Basin. Ch ina R ural W a ter and Hydropow er, 2010 ( 2) : 21 224. ]
[ 7 ] , , , . [ J ]. , 2009, 64 ( 3) : 270 2
277. [ X IE Ping, CHEN Xiao 2hong, WANG Zhao 2li, et a l. Comparison of actual evapotransp iration and pan evaporation.
A cta Geograph ica S inica, 2009, 64 ( 3) : 270 2277. ]

[ 8 ] , . [ J ]. , 2008, 28 ( 2 ) : 82 286. [ L IU De2di, CHEN Xiao2

hong. Temporal and spatial characteristics of p recip itation in the Dongjiang R iver Basin. Jou rna l of China Hydrology,
2008, 28 ( 2) : 82 286. ]
[ 9 ] W angW , Chen X, Shi P. Detecting changes in extreme p recip itation and extreme streamflow in the Dongjiang R iver Basin
in southern China [ J ]. Hydrol. Ea rth S yst. S ci. , 2008, 12: 207 2221.
[ 10 ] Global Inventory Modeling and Mapp ing Studies ( GIMMS) . Satellite drift corrected and NOAA 216 incorporated normal2
ized difference vegetation index (NDV I) , bimonthly 1981 - 2006 [ R ]. University ofMaryland Global Land Cover Facility
Data D istribution, 2008.
[ 11 ] Eduardo O , Ebeling W , Lanius K. ME I, SO I and m id 2range correlations in the onset of El N i o 2Southern O scillation
[ J ]. Physica A, 2002, 310 ( 3 /4) : 509 2520.
[ 12 ] . [M ]. : , 2007. [W E I Feng2ying. The Modern Clim ate Sta2
tistical D iagnosis and Prediction Technology. Beijing: Metrology Press, 2007. ]
[ 13 ] Torrence C, Compo G P. A p ractical guide to wavelet analysis [ J ]. B u lletin of Am erican M eteorological S ociety, 1998,
79: 61 278.
[ 14 ] Mandelbrot B B. The Geometry of Nature [M ]. New York: W. H. Freeman, 1982.
[ 15 ] , , . R / S [ J ]. , 2007, 25 ( 2 ) : 214 2217. [ YAN A i2
ling, HUANG Q iang, L IU Zhao. Comp licated p roperty of runoff tim e series studied with R / S Method. Journal of App lied
Sciences, 2007, 25 ( 2) : 214 2217. ]
[ 16 ] Rasmusson E M , W allace J M. Meteorological aspects of El N igo / Southern O scillation [ J ]. S cience, 1983, 222: 1195 2
1202.
[ 17 ] , , , . ENSO [ J ]. , 2008, 32 ( 4) : 761 2781. [ L I Chong2yin, MU
Mu, ZHOU Guang2qing, et a l. Mechanism and p rediction studies of the ENSO. Chinese Jou rna l of A tm ospheric S ciences,
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[ 19 ] , , . [ J ]. , 2006, 25 ( 4) : 303 2307. [WANG Zhao2

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1374

25

Runoff Var ia tion and Its Im pactin g Factors in the

D ongjiang R iver Ba sin dur in g 1956 - 2005
WANG Zhao 2li

1, 2

, CHEN Xiao 2hong , YANG Tao

3

( 1. School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology2W ater Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
3. Center for W ater Resources and Environment Research, SUN Yat2sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China)

Abstract: B ased on the runoff and p recip itation data at Heyuan, L ingxia and Boluo sations during
1956 - 2005, the M ann 2Kendall, Rescaled Range analysis and wavelet transform analysis methods
are used to find out the variation law of runoff and its im pacting factors in the Dongjiang R iver B a2
sin. The results show that there are no significant changing trend and abrup tly jump ing point for
runoff series in the Dongjiang R iver B asin. The results of continuous wavelet transform indicate
that there are obvious periodic variations w ith scales 4 a, 7 - 9 a, 11 - 13 a and 16 - 22 a for the
annual runoff series, and scale 7 - 9 a is the first period. The computed Hurst exponents indicate
that a long2term memory characteristic exists in the annual runoff series. Annual runoff amount is
related to the occurrence of El ningo event. And sunspot number ( SSN ) is significantly correlated
to annual runoff amount. The results of linear correlation indicate that the more SSN is, the less
annual runoff amount is. The results of statistical analysis show that trends and abrup t change of
runoff are in accordance w ith that of p recip itation, evaporation respectively, especially w ith the
p recip itation. Among the clim ate factors, p recip itation and evaporation are the most important fac2
tors to the changes of runoff. NDV I ( Norm alized D ifference Vegetation Index ) series in the
Dongjiang R iver B asin show a significantly decreasing trend during 1982 - 2005, but NDV I series
p resents insignificant effect on runoff directly, which may indirectly affect runoff by impacting e2
vaporation. Runoff variations in the Dongjiang R iver Basin are affected by synthetic effect of re2
gional clim atic elem ents and vegetation deterioration.
Key words: runoff; clim ate change; El ningo; sunspot number; NDV I; Dongjiang R iver B asin