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Scientific Journal of Control Engineering

June 2013, Volume 3 Issue 3, PP.129-137

Load Combination Forecasting Based on Power


Grid with Environmental Characteristics
Pei Ao, Shuaibin Shu
Henan Normal University/Computer & Information Technology College, Xinxiang 453007, China
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Email: aopei16@sina.cn

Abstract
In this paper, the appropriate individual forecasting models are selected based on the characteristics of underground power load.
Then, these individual forecasting models is filtered by comprehensive validity and model redundancy verification. And a
combination forecasting method based on IOWHA operator is proposed. In this method, forecasting values of individual model
with higher accuracy are substituted for historical data by Dempster synthesize rule. The defect that data are unknown during
actual forecasting period is overcome. The concept of equal dimension information is introduced in this model. The forecasting
results can reflect the development law of load by this concept reasonably. Verified by an example, combination forecasting model
in this paper is suitable for forecasting underground power load in coal mine. And the forecasting accuracy can be improved
effectively.
Keywords: Load Combination Forecasting; IOWHA Operator; Comprehensive Validity; Model Redundancy Verification;
Dempster Synthesize Rule

453007

IOWHA Dempster

IOWHA Dempster

(No13A413506);
(No.qd12136)
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(IOWHA)

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SSEMSEMAEMAPE
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