1 1

2011 12

Scientific Journal of Earth Science [SJES]

Vol.1 No.1
Dec. 2011

*
1 1 2 *2
1. 100875
2. 100875

Logit
Kriging

Logit

Rainfall Model of China Mainland with High Space-Time Resolution

Guocan Wu1 , XiaoguZheng 1, Jiang Guo2 , Yong Li*2
1. College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875
2. School of M athematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875
liyong@bnu.edu.cn

Abstract: Since rainfall largely affects the weather conditions, precipitation has become an important factor to measure climate
change of a region, which leads to many estimate methods of precipitation. This paper fused the station precipitation and satellite
data and built the rainfall model of China mainland with high space-time resolution based on theory of thin-plate smoothing spline
and Logit model. Compared with traditional interpolation method, Kriging and infrared brightness temperature revision through
actual data, the result of new method with data fusion has superiority in lower error.

Key words: rainfall; infrared brightness temperature; thin-plate smoothing spline; Logit model

1.

Kriging
[1-4]

[5,6]
*

973 2010CB950703 2010CB9516042009AA122104

10871026

www. j-es.org PP.33-39 2011 A merican V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD

Scientific Journal o f Earth Science [SJES]

[7,8]

ERA40 NCAR/NCEP
[9]

[10-12]

TRMM

TRMM (3B42)

3 5 5

2.
2.1
TRMM

t 3 t
1,2,3
TRMM 1,2,3 17

1998 7 1 15 (mm)
3 8 158=120
7 1 7 15 21

2.2.
Hutchinson[13]ANUSPLINE
Partial Thin-plate Spline

yt ,i ( X t ,i ) t ,i , i 1,, n ,

(1)

( X t ,i ) ft ( xlat ,i , xlon,i , xelev,i ) tT X t ,i

(2)

X t ,i

X t ,i (1, xt ,tr ,i , xt , fz ,i , X t ,lw,i , X t 3,lw,i , X t 3,lw,i , X t 6,lw,i ) ,

X t ,lw,i ( xt ,lw,1,i , xt ,lw,2,i , xt ,lw,3,i ) ,

X t 3,lw,i ( xt 3,lw,1,i , xt 3,lw,2,i , xt 3,lw,3,i ) ,
X t 3,lw,i ( xt 3,lw,1,i , xt 3,lw,2,i , xt 3,lw,3,i ) ,
X t 6,lw,i ( xt 6,lw,1,i , xt 6,lw,2,i , xt 6,lw,3,i )

yt ,i t i n xt ,tr ,i t i TRMM xt , fz ,i t

www.j-es.org PP.33-39 2011 American V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD

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i xt ,lw,1,i , xt ,lw,2,i , xt ,lw,3,i t i xt 3,lw ,1,i xt 3,lw,2,i

xt 3,lw,3,i i xt 3,lw ,1,i xt 3,lw,2,i xt 3,lw,3,i i

xt 6,lw ,1,i xt 6,lw,2,i xt 6,lw,3,i i xlat ,i xlon ,i xleve ,i
i t ,i N (0,1) t ,i X t ,i

2.3
Hutchinson[14]
10%

yts,i '( X ts,i ) t ,i , i 1,, n ,

(3)

'( X ts,i ) ft ( xlat ,i , xlon,i , xelev,i ) tT X ts,i ,

(4)

X t ,i (1, xt ,tr ,i , xt , fz ,i , X t ,lw,i , X t 3,lw,i , X t 3,lw,i , X t 6,lw ,i ) xts,tr ,i

s

xt ,tr ,i yts,i

yt ,i (5)

'

n
i 1

( yts,i '( X ts,i ))2 n ts J ( ')

(5)

2.4.
(3)
Pearson 3 6 9
12 18 1
1

d=3

d=6

d=9

d=12

d=15

d=18

d=21

0.655

0.282

0.179

0.105

0.064

0.087

0.084

d=15 6.4% d=15

15 6 0
3 6 9 12 15 15 6

2.5.

Logit
17

E( y 't ,i | X t ,i ) t ,i exp(tT X t ,i ) (1 exp(tT X t ,i )) ,

(6)

Var( y 't ,i | X t ,i ) t ,i (1 t ,i ) ,

(7)

www. j-es.org PP.33-39 2011 A merican V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD

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Scientific Journal o f Earth Science [SJES]

y 't ,i 0 yt ,i 0 1 yt ,i 0

0.01

exp(0 1xtr 2 x fz 3 xlw,1 4 xlw,1,3 5 xlw,2,6 ) (1 exp(0 1xtr 2 x fz 3 xlw,1 4 xlw,1,3 5 xlw,2,6 ))

(8)

xtr x fz xlw ,1 xlw,1,3 xlw,2,6 58

531
Person
2
2

2092.18

x fz

1174.16

xlw,1,3

2184.29

xtr x fz

2145.79

x fz xlw,1,3

2228.98

xtr x fz xlw,1,3

2202. 43

xtr x fz xlw,2,6

2270.07

xtr x fz xlw ,1 xlw,1,3

2229.13

xtr x fz xlw,1,3 xlw,2,6

2270.07

xtr x fz xlw ,1 xlw,1,3 xlw,2,6

xlw ,1 xtr x fz xlw,1,3 4Logit

exp(0 1xtr 2 x fz 3 xlw,1 4 xlw,1,3 ) (1 exp(0 1xtr 2 x fz 3 xlw,1 4 xlw,1,3 )) .

(9)

2.6.
TRMM
1 1
GCV RMSE
RMSE
1998 7 1-15 7 GCV, RMSE RMSE
RMSE 15 GCV RMSE
RMSE 50
400-700 50 10%
GCV RMSE RMSE RMSE

www.j-es.org PP.33-39 2011 American V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD

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3
3 GCV

GCV

RM SE

RM SE

RM SE

f ( xlat ,i , xlon ,i )

0.5321

0.6600

0.6408

0.6683

f ( xlat ,i , xlon ,i ) 1 xtr ,i

0.4377

0.6121

0.6407

0.6879

0.4354

0.6144

0.6403

0.6691

0.4238

0.6028

0.5812

0.6303

f ( xlat ,i , xlon,i ) 1xtr ,i 2 x fz ,i

f ( xlat ,i , xlon,i ) 1xtr ,i 3 xlw,1,i 4 xlw,1,3,i

f ( xlat ,i , xlon,i ) 1xtr ,i 2 x fz ,i 3 xlw,1,i 4 xlw,1,3,i

0.4121

0.5968

0.6841

0.6494

f ( xlat ,i , xlon,i , xelev,i )

0.5243

0.6426

0.6536

0.6724

0.4354

0.6045

0.6612

0.7661

0.4408

0.6098

0.6344

0.6753

f ( xlat ,i , xlon,i , xelev,i ) 1xtr ,i

f ( xlat ,i , xlon,i , xelev,i ) 1xtr ,i 2 x fz ,i

f ( xlat ,i , xlon,i , xelev,i ) 1xtr ,i 3 xlw,1,i 4 xlw,1,3,i

0.4306

0.5990

0.6256

0.6403

10

f ( xlat ,i , xlon,i , xelev,i ) 1xtr ,i 2 x fz ,i 3 xlw,1,i 4 xlw,1,3,i

0.4454

0.6015

0.6761

0.6604

3 1 6 TRMM
1 6
GCV RMSE 1 6 8 GCV
RMSE RMSE RMSE 4 9
GCV RMSE 4 GCV 9 RMSE

f ( xlat ,i , xlon,i , xelev,i ) 1xtr ,i 3 xlw,1,i 4 xlw,1,3,i

(10)

(10) 1-7 10
20 50 RMSE 4
4

RM SE-10

0.6668

1.4697

2.0369

1.1437

1.7935

2.1085

RM SE-20

RM SE-50

3.
3.1.
Kriging
1998 7 1 -15 21
10 (20, 50) 10

www. j-es.org PP.33-39 2011 A merican V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD

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Scientific Journal o f Earth Science [SJES]

(20, 50)RMSE
5
5 19987RM SE

RM SE-10

1.0805

2.0630

2.1419

Kriging

1.1620

2.2557

2.3770

1.0220

2.1626

2.4790

0.8178

1.8441

1.9974

RM SE-20

RM SE-50

5 15 10,20,50 RMSE , RMSE

Kriging Kriging

24.3%; 10.6%; 6.7% Kringing 29.6%; 18.3%; 16.0%

20.0%; 18.5%; 19.4% 13.9%,
Kriging 21.3% 19.3%

3.2 2005 7
2005 7 10 (20, 50)
RMSE 6
6 20057RM SE

RM SE-10

1.5098

1.4106

1.9960

Kriging

1.5313

1.5029

2.1739

1.3739

1.4303

2.0908

1.3023

1.3606

1.9127

RM SE-20

RM SE-50

6 7.1%; 12.1%; 6.2%

4.
TRMM
Logit
Logit
Logit
Kriging

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(1981-)Email:math_wgc@mail.bnu.edu.cn
(1958-)Email:liyong@bnu.edu.cn

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