Elections Under Devolution

IP10120 Roger Scully 26/02/04

Outline of Lecture
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Introduction Background The results: 1999 & 2003 Understanding Devolved Elections Conclusions

Background
Historical background: Centrality of Westminster Elections Labour Dominance
Electoral Arrangements

1997 Election, Scotland

Party
Labour Conservative Lib-Dems SNP

% Vote
45.6% 17.5% 12.9% 22.1%

Seats
56 0 10 6

1997 Election, Wales

Party
Labour Conservative Lib-Dems Plaid Cymru

% Vote
54.8% 19.5% 12.3% 10.0%

Seats
34 0 2 4

Additional Member System

Scotland: - 73 Constituency MSPs - 56 Regional List MSPs
Wales: - 40 Constituency AMs - 20 Regional List AMs

1999 Results, Scotland

Party
Labour Conservative Lib-Dems SNP Others

1st Vote
38.8% 15.5% 14.2% 28.7% 2.7%

2nd Vote
33.6% 15.4% 12.4% 27.3% 11.3%

Seats
56 18 17 35 3

2003 Results, Scotland

Party
Labour Conservative Lib-Dems SNP Others

1st Vote
34.9% 16.5% 15.1% 23.8% 9.7%

2nd Vote
29.3% 15.5% 11.8% 20.9% 22.5%

Seats
50 18 17 27 17

1999 Results, Wales

Party
Labour Conservative Lib-Dems Plaid Cymru Others

1st Vote
37.6% 15.8% 13.5% 28.4% 4.7%

2nd Vote
35.5% 16.5% 12.5% 30.6% 4.9%

Seats
28 9 6 17 0

2003 Results, Wales

Party
Labour Conservative Lib-Dems Plaid Cymru Others

1st Vote
40.0% 19.9% 14.1% 21.2% 4.7%

2nd Vote
36.6% 19.2% 12.7% 19.7% 11.9%

Seats
30 11 6 12 1

Constitutional Preferences, Wales

1997
Independence Parliament Assembly No Devolution 14.1% 19.6% 26.8% 39.5%

1999
9.6% 29.9% 35.3% 25.3%

2003
13.9% 37.8% 27.1% 21.2%

2003, Voting for UK and NAW Compared

Party
Labour Conservative Lib-Dems Plaid Cymru

NAW (1st)
40.0% 19.9% 14.1% 21.2%

Westminster
50.0% 23.0% 14.8% 10.1%

Party Leader Ratings (/10)

Leader
Blair Morgan Kennedy IDS IWJ

Rating
5.81 5.46 4.74 4.35 4.32