Pharmaceutical industry

Sun Pharmaceutical Ltd CMP 1298

Rs. in bln
➢ Sun Pharma is one of
the top ten Indian K ey Financials * FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09E
pharmaceuticals
companies with a very N et sales 9.96 12.92 16.63 23.66 33
strong presence and % G row th 6.51% 29.73% 28.72% 42.29% 42.0
with 9.22% share E BIT D A 1.05 0.14 -0.55 1.97 2.
according to Herfindahl E BIT D A M argin % 10.56% 1.09% -3.29% 8.33% 6.9
index. Major part of its A d ju sted P A T 3.10 4.61 6.29 10.14 12
revenue comes from % G row th 10.47% 48.91% 36.34% 61.23% 27.5
exports which N et p rofit m argin % 31.11% 35.71% 37.83% 42.87% 38.5
contributes 55% of total E P S (based on A d j.P at)* 16.70 24.84 32.52 52.43 66
sales. Book valu e p er sh* are 59.59 78.89 12.66 21.75 26
➢ The company has R etu rn on equ ity 28.02% 31.49% 25.68% 24.10% 25.6
outperformed the
industry which grew at the rate of 13% for the FY 2007-08 whereas sun
Pharma grew by 16% in the same period
➢ The expected price band is
in the range of 1686-2019. K ey ratios (% ) FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09E
➢ In 2007-08 the PAT grew
by about 61.23%
M ark et P ri ce 471.40 866.40 1054.00 1231.40 0
P/ E 28.23 34.88 32.42 23.49 0
P / BV 7.91 10.98 83.23 56.61 0
E V / E BIT D A 92.80 1184.94 -3730.01 1027.81 927
E V / Sal es 9.80 12.94 122.61 85.64 64

K ey data
F ace val u e (R s.)
Sh ares ou tstan d in g (mn ) 207
M arket cap (R s. In bln ) 268
52 w eek h igh / low (R s.) 15
BSE C od e 5247
N SE C od e su n p h a
Stock Market Performance
200
RELATIVEINDEX 350
Sun Pharma outperforms sensex 150
300
250

%
200
For the last six months share prices of 100 150
50 100
sun Pharma has outperformed 50
0 0
sensex. The reason can be attributed
to various approvals from USFDA to
market its variety of drugs (cerebyx,

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sun pharma (LHS) sensex (RHS) healthcare(LHS)
30 ANDA’s have been filed, launch of
WWW.BSEINDIA.COM
generic amifostine injection and
approval for anticancer injection. Sun Pharma also acquired Able Labs
Facility for USD 23.15 million and is also in process to acquire Taro Pharma.
Sun Pharma has also converted remaining FCCB’S which were due in March
2009 with no FCCBs outstanding. Sun Pharma in acquisition phase to expand
its market beyond 30 market which the company serving currently.
Contents
Sun Pharma outperforms sensex.........................................................................................2

1. INVESTMENT RATIONALE.......................................................5

1.1 Industry growing steadily...........................................................................5

1.2 Growth is driven by Exports.......................................................................5

1.3 Increasing R&D Focus................................................................................5

2. KEY CONCERNS.....................................................................6

2.1 Exchange Rate Fluctuation.........................................................................6

2.2 Competition from fragmented players.......................................................6

2.3 Government Regulation.............................................................................6

2.4 Long time in the R&D process....................................................................6

2.5Stringent regulations abroad.......................................................................7

3. FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS.....................................................7

3.1 Financial Forecast......................................................................................7

3.2 Key assumptions........................................................................................7

4. ENTERPRISE VALUATION........................................................8

4.1 DCF Sensitivity...........................................................................................8

4.2 DCF Valuation............................................................................................9

.........................................................................................................................9

4.3 Relative Valuation......................................................................................9

5. INDUSTRY OUTLOOK............................................................10

5.1 Industry Value Chain & Structure.............................................................10

5.2 Michael Porter Analysis............................................................................11

5.3 GROWTH DRIVERS...................................................................................12

6. BUSINESS ANALYSIS............................................................13

6.1 Company background..............................................................................13

6.2 Revenue Model.........................................................................................14

6.3 Key Business Drivers................................................................................14

7. ISSUES & CONCERNS...........................................................14

8. FINANCIAL & PROJECTIONS..................................................15

Profit and Loss Account..................................................................................15

Balance Sheet................................................................................................16

Cash Flow Statement.....................................................................................17

Cash Flow Statement

1. Investment Rationale

1.1 Industry growing steadily

The Indian Pharmaceutical Industry is highly fragmented with around
thousands of players and an estimated size of US$ 12.8bn. A major share of
the revenue comes from exports. It is expected to reach market size of
US$18.8bn by 2010. Industry is 4th in terms of global volume and 13th in
terms of value. The industry is self sufficient and a low cost producer of high
quality bulk drugs & formulations. According to KPMG report, Indian
pharmaceutical industry, which has grown at 1.5 to 1.6 times the growth of
the economy over the past couple of years, is well positioned for sustainable
growth and expansion. The industry has grown at a CAGR of 13 per cent
from 2002-2007. The industry is expected to grow at CAGR of 16% in 2007-
11. Industry is likely to become one among the top ten pharmaceuticals
market in the next decade.

1.2 Growth is driven by Exports

During the quarter ended march 2008, exports witnessed growth of more
than 200% compared to corresponding period last year. This increase in
exports can be contributed to the fact that huge demand for Indian
formulation and API’s because of significant cost arbitrage and innovative
scientific manpower. Sun Pharma exports its product to 30 countries
including US, Europe and Japan.

1.3 Increasing R&D Focus

During the quarter ended march 2008, R&Das a %of sales
R&D expenditure as a % of sales is 1000.0 20

6.45% at Rs 826.4 million. In the 800.0 15

coming year expenditure on R&D will 600.0

%
10
increase due to deduction in R&D 400.0
n .m
iloR
s

5
outsourcing as announced in the 200.0

government budget and sun Pharma is 0.0 0

OND06 JFM07 AMJ07 JAS07 OND07 JFM08
also in growth stage. Success in
R&D EXPENSE %OF SALES
Pharma industry is dependent on new www.sunpharma.com
drugs which come through Research &
Development. R&D is a very costly and a time consuming process as it
usually takes about 5-10 years before a molecule comes out as a drug in the
market. Sun Pharma is committed to fuel its growth through R&D and has
spent about 9.1% of its net sales on R&D in 2007-08.
 2. Key concerns

2.1 Exchange Rate Fluctuation

A major part of the revenue for Sun Pharma come through exports (55 %)
and such the revenues are affected with the fluctuations in the exchange
rate. US continue to be a strong territory for Sun Pharma as far as the export
sales are concerned. Company has got approved many drugs by USFDA with
180 days marketing exclusivity. However the recent rupee deprecation will
help boost the bottom line. But volatility remains in the exchange rate
sometimes putting the margins under pressure.

2.2 Competition from fragmented players

The size of the industry is highly fragmented with about 24000 players out of
which only 330 players are in the organized sector. The huge size of the
industry increases competition as many companies are making the same
product. Other concerns are the patent rights after which no other company
can produce same drug.

2.3 Government Regulation

The prices of certain drugs are controlled by National Pricing
Pharmaceuticals Authority (NPPA) which limits the ability of the company to
charge prices.

2.4 Long time in the R&D process

The success of the Pharma companies depends on the discovery of new
drugs. However the process of drug discovery usually takes a very long
period of time as it has to pass through various stages of clinical research.
Till the time new drugs are discovered by the company the company’s
growth is dependent on manufacturing and marketing of off patented drugs.
For Sun Pharma, research and development is to keep replenishing a
pipeline of products is vital, as is innovation that works on totally new-to-the-
world product ideas. In India and in markets like India, they bring to market
the latest molecules, often using complex delivery systems that help
improve the quality of life.
2.5Stringent regulations abroad
All Indian Pharmaceutical companies who wish to enter regulated markets
like USA have to follow regulations of that country. In US FDA approvals are
required for any company to market their products and hence it is not very
easy to enter regulated markets.

3. Financial Assumptions

3.1 Financial Forecast

Sun Pharma’s revenue during the year 2008-09 is expected to touch RS
45409.12 mn showing an impressive increase of 42% from the last year
revenue of Rs32768.40 mn. The EBITDA will grow by 6.96% to touch 2338
mn in FY 09 from Rs 1971.10 mn in FY 08. PAT is likely to increase to Rs
12936.48 mn in FY 09 up from Rs 10140.40 mn in FY 08.

3.2 Key assumptions

Revenue

The total revenue of the company is derived from domestic sales and
exports to advanced and emerging markets. In the year 2007-08 company
has increased its exports base by entering into new markets with total
exports up to 55% of total sales. The past trends and the policies of the
company give an idea that the share of export revenue is likely to increase
when compared to domestic sales. Hence the share of domestic sales is
decreasing and exports are increasing year after year. Although we are
positive on the fundamentals of sun Pharma but it is likely to face
competition as other players are expected to launch similar products in US.

CAPEX

The company’s capital expenditure is 12.62% of total sales for year 2008
touching Rs 2987.41 mn. For the next two year this is expected to increase
due to company’s expansion plans. The debt equity ratio has come down to .
42 because company has converted all the outstanding FCCB’s and repay all
the ECB’s. Company has huge reserves, for the year ended march 08,
reserves account for massive Rs. 41040 mn.
 Operational Expenses

Total Expenses average around 91.67% of the total sales and all other
expenses have been calculated as a proportion of total expenses. Total
expenses for FY 09 & FY 10 have been projected at 95% of the sales
respectively.

Staff Cost at present is 6.07% of its total sales. For the projected period the
staff cost is expected to be in the range of 6-7% of total sales. The staff cost
is expected to increase if the company goes expansion.

Other Expenses constitute around 21% of the total sales which constitute
R&D expenses and other administrative expense. This is tend to increase as
company is focusing on more and more R&D with 2 centres and 550 scientist

Depreciation as % of total sales is 2.37% and for the next two years it is
assumed to be2-3% of total sales.

Tax Rate is assumed to be 3.63 % of total sales.

Dividend is distributed at the rate of 35 % of PAT.

4. Enterprise Valuation

4.1 DCF Sensitivity

The DCF valuation is relatively sensitive to the continuing growth rate and
the discounting factor used. The WACC is 8.21%and the sustainable growth
rate is assumed to be 8%. We have analyzed the DCF sensitivity with respect
to different scenarios with different combinations of growth rates and cost of

Table 1: D C F Sensitivity
Weighted A verage C ost of C apital (%)
11 11.5 12 12.5 13 8.21 14 15
Continuing Growth (%)

7.5 291.97 251.70 220.35 195.26 174.71 169.22 143.06 119.81

8 342.01 288.87 248.99 217.95 193.10 186.55 155.79 129.09
8.5 412.05 338.42 285.80 246.32 215.58 207.60 170.83 139.80
9 517.12 407.80 334.89 282.78 243.68 233.72 188.88 152.30
10 1042.45 685.31 506.69 399.48 327.97 310.85 238.52 184.78
capital.
4.2 DCF Valuation
 DCF VALUATION

Rs in
mn

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09(E) FY10(E) FY11(E) FY12(E)

Revenue 12916.40 16625. 23656. 33594.3 47707.2 57248.7 68698.4

60 40 0 7 3 7

EBIT -266.30 - 1410.0 1585.00 -2685.75 3223.10 3867.72

1009.2 0
0

% of Revenues -2.06 -6.07 5.96 4.72 -5.63 5.63 5.63

Depreciation 407.30 462.70 561.10 753.00 1010.53 1230.85 1477.02

% of Revenues 3.15 2.78 2.37 2.24 2.12 2.15 2.15

EBITDA 141.00 - 1971.1 2338.00 -1675.22 2289.95 2747.94

546.50 0

% of Revenues 1.09 -3.29 8.33 6.96 -3.51 4.00 4.00

Less: Cash Tax 73.80 56.30 - -88.42 -171.24 -239.33 -441.69

390.75

NOPLAT 67.20 - 2361.8 2426.42 -1503.98 4693.28 5786.43

602.80 5

Capex -1150.70 - - -3885.19 -3052.83 -3663.92 -4396.70

955.50 2987.4
1

Changes in WC -4356.80 204.80 - 1794.73 1069.33 1282.37 1538.85

10226.
28

Post Tax Non-operating 4864.27 7280.2 8781.5 11406.2 14629.8 17747.1 21296.5
cash flows 1 4 9 7 1 3

Free Cash Flows -576.03 5926.7 - 11742.2 11142.3 20058.8 24225.1

1 2070.3 4 8 3 0
0

it is assumed that beyond FY 12

cash flow will grow @8%
Book Value of Debt 24494.9

Fundamental Value of Equity 9245913.2

No of Outstanding Shares 1934.26

Fundamental Valueper share(Rs) 4780.09

4.3 Relative Valuation

P/E expected eps Expected price

27.0 62.5 1686.4
33.3 62.5 2081.8
42.0 62.5 2623.3
P/BV expected book value
0.0300 50484.7 1514.5
0.0400 50484.7 2019.4
0.0500 50484.7 2524.2
Expected
EV/EBIDTA EV (m)
17.0 268558.7
26.0 268558.7 948.1
34.0 268558.7 948.1

5. Industry Outlook

5.1 Industry Value Chain & Structure

Value chain is a set of activities required to design, procure, produce,
market, distribute, and service a product or service. In other words, the
sequential set of primary and support activities that an enterprise performs
to turn inputs into value-added outputs for its external customers.

Companies are Reducing R&D expenses by tying up with colleges

Industry Structure

The size of the Indian Pharmaceuticals industry is quite fragmented

with about 24000 players out of which only 330 players are in the organized
sector. Some of the major players are Dr. Reddy’s Lab, Ranbaxy, Cipla,
Nicholas Piramal, Cadila, Wockhardt, Glen mark etc.

5.2 Michael Porter Analysis

FIVE FORCES EFFECTS REASONS

Threats of Entry Low to Moderate For off patented drugs
entry barriers are not too
high.

Bargaining power of Buyers Low Prices of many drugs are

regulated

Bargaining power of Low There are many

Suppliers suppliers in the
unorganized sector

Threats of Substitutes No Medicine has no

substitute except for
alternative therapies

Competition Rivalry Very high Intense because no. of

players are too many

5.3 GROWTH DRIVERS

According to a KPMG, Indian Pharma industry is expected to grow at a CAGR
of 16% for next five years. The major growth drivers are:

A. Outsourcing opportunities-

India is one of the most preferred outsourcing destinations for:

a) Contract Manufacturing- Indian Pharmaceutical Industry has one of

the best manufacturing facilities and has the ability to manufacture low
cost products due to its significant cost arbitrage. The outsourcing
opportunity is estimated at $20bn and is expected to reach $31bn by
2010

b) Contract research- India’s innovative R&D is attracting a lot of

contract Research Activities which is expected to reach $24bn by
2010($14 in 2006) the outsourcing of contract research is fuelled by
 large number of products going off patent along with declining R&D
productivity.

B. Government Support

The government is also supporting Pharma Industry through-

• Tax exemption on clinical research & trials services.

• Innovative funding models to encourage R&D activities.
• 125% deductions for R&D outsourcing.
• Cut in custom duty and excise duty on certain drugs.
• 100% FDI is also permissible for the manufacture of Drugs and
Pharmaceuticals.
• Pharma majors tying up with colleges to cut R&D expenses
• Establishment of SEZ’s
• Union budget 2008-09 declared Rs. 100 crores for drugs and
pharmaceutical research.
• Tax holidays and sops in different part of the country like Himachal
Pradesh, Sikkim, Jammu and Kashmir

C. Changing Demographics & Life style Diseases

The ageing population in India is rising fast leading to the more consumption
of drugs. Moreover the disease profile is changing from infectious to life style
related diseases like cardiovascular, nervous system related and obesity. Life
style related drugs are higher value drugs further driving the sales of Pharma
companies. Increasing health awareness and rising real income has also led
to growth of the Pharma companies.

D. Mergers and acquisition

In the Pharma industry, companies are looking to acquire companies through

which they can fetch new markets abroad and also going in for tie ups so
that there cost is cut, use their technologies and strategic partnership which
will benefit both.
 1. BUSINESS ANALYSIS

6.1 Company background

Sun Pharma was founded by DILIP S. ShareholdingPattern as on march08
SHANGHVI, Chairman and Managing Director
of the company in 1982 and operations 11%
started in 1983. Headquarters of the
company is located in Mumbai. The 25%

company is engaged in manufacturing of 64%

formulations and API (Active Pharmaceutical

Ingredients). Manufacturing plants of the
Promoter Institutions Non Institutions
company are situated in silvassa, dadra,
source: www.bseindia.com
halol, vapi, Ahmednagar, Tamil Nadu,
Vadodra, Jammu, Ankleswar, Panoli and Hungary.

Shareholding pattern as on March 08, shows that promoters have majority

stake with 64% share with them whereas institutions have stake of 25% and
other non institutions have 11% stake in the company.

6.2 Revenue Model

Formulations and API’s are the two basic revenue segment
revenue stream for the company. Company
produces high quality of API’s and
formulations for the domestic market and DOMESTIC
abroad also. Company exports 55% of the EXPORTS 45%
55%
total production to as many as 30 countries
SOURCE: WWW.BSEINDIA.COM
and is also looking at other acquisition to
increase its revenue stream.
6.3 Key Business Drivers
Growth drivers for sun Pharma which includes recent incentives given by
central government in the budget 2008 for R&D i.e. 125% deduction in
outsourcing of R&D activity and other includes cut in excise duty as well as
in custom duty of specific drugs which may bring down cost of production for
the company. Acquisition of Able labs and ongoing acquisition of Taro
Pharma which will open up new markets for the company and more product
launches in the offing, several approved by USFDA will add to top line of
company. Value drivers for sun Pharma which fuels the bottom line i.e. profit
of the company being outsourcing of R&D activities and company is also
looking at higher capacity utilization for the existing plants and believes in
conserving resources. Other value drivers are income from the share of
partnership companies. Other income is the major component of PAT for Sun
Pharma.

2. Issues & Concerns

Price Regulations

Prices for scheduled bulk drugs are fixed by NPPA to make them available
at fair price from different manufactures. There is other limitation of
pricing authority which hampers the company’s profitability and without
permission no new drug can be imported.

Multiple indirect taxes

Pharma industry in India is facing multiple indirect taxes like customs duty
on import of goods, excise duty on manufacture of goods, VAT and CST on
sale of goods which fuels up the cost of production and results in high
prices.

Duplication of drugs

Fake & counterfeit drugs are manufactured and sold in large quantities
which affect the ethical sales of Pharma companies. The current size of
fake drugs market in India is Rs15000cr out of which Rs300cr alone is sold
in NCR. The growth in fake drugs is due to the shortage of drug inspector
and a weak drug distribution system.
 High Attrition Rate

In spite of industries high employment growth rate, attrition is common

for the Pharma companies. This is due to less motivation and low salaries
whereas poor management, less opportunities for advancement, ethical
issues, high stress and burn out are other reason for high attrition rate in
this industry.

High cost of R&D

In order to compete with the global players the Pharma companies need
to a spend huge amount on R&D. Rising interest rate further makes the
borrowings very expensive and hence difficult to compete.

Rupee Impact

When rupee appreciates against US dollar, margins are badly affected.

However its impact may be offset to some extent for those companies
who are importing their raw material from outside. But nowadays rupee is
depreciating against US $ so, bottom line will fuel up for the company

3. Financial & Projections

Profit and Loss Account

 Rs in million

Particulars FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09( FY10(

E) E)

Net Sales 9347. 9956. 12916 16625 23656 33594. 47707.

40 20 .40 .60 .40 30 27

% Growth 0% 6.51% 29.73 28.72 42.29 42.01 42.01

% % % % %

Total Revenue 10552 12468 18069 24040 32768 45409. 62927.

.70 .10 .50 .20 .40 12 95

% Growth 0% 18.15 44.93 33.04 36.31 38.58 38.58

% % % % % %

EXPENDITURES

Staff Costs 563.9 653.1 820.1 988.7 1435. 2049.2 2174.2

0 0 0 0 60 5 6

% of Net Sales 6% 6.56% 6.35% 5.95% 6.07% 6.10% 6.10%

Other Manufacturing/Operating 4713. 6616. 9266. 13142 15271 24041. 41248.

costs 20 30 90 .80 .60 89 67

% of Net Sales 50% 66.45 71.75 79.05 64.56 71.57 71.57

% % % % % %

Miscellaneous Expenses 2094. 1635. 2688. 3040. 4978. 5165.1 5959.5

00 60 40 60 10 7 7

% of Net Sales 22% 16.43 20.81 18.29 21.04 15.38 15.38

% % % % % %

Total Expenditures 7371. 8905. 12775 17172 21685 31256. 49382.

10 00 .40 .10 .30 31 50

% of Net Sales 79% 89.44 98.91 103.2 91.67 93.04 57.99

% % 9% % % %

EBITDA 1976. 1051. 141.0 - 1971. 2338.0 -

30 20 0 546.5 10 0 1675.2
0 2

EBITDA Margin % 21% 10.56 1.09% - 8.33% 6.96% -3.51%

% 3.29%
Balance Sheet
Particulars FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09(E)

F
Gross Asset 6,120.5 7442.60 8387.00 11,264. 15,132. 18,159.08
Y
0 95 57 1
0(
Accumulated Depreciation 1,729.0 2080.70 2494.10 3,055.2 3,808.2 4,818.73
E)
0 0 0

Capital WIP 479.40 308.00 319.10 428.56 446.13 472.45

Net Fixed Asset 4,870. 5,669.9 6,212.0 8,638.3 11,770. 13,812.80

90 0 0 1 50

Investments 9,852.4 7796.2 10574. 12,689. 16,116. 19339.38

0 0 90 88 15

gross asset turnover ratio 162.67 173.55 198.23% 210.00 222.00 262.72%
% % % %

Current Asset 17,54 22,574. 21,874. 32,383. 30,677. 29,502.27

5.30 30 40 78 60

total asset 32,268. 36,040. 38,661.3 46,385. 58,937. 70,724.85

60 40 0 10 38

Cash 8,900.3 12309.8 12026.8 21,744. 19,545. 17,882.70

0 0 0 01 53

Other Current Assets 45.00 304.60 327.00 359.00 391.00 418.20

Inventories 1,866.2 2634.10 3333.80 4,078.9 4812.77 5,546.57

0 7

Trade Debtors 2,349.7 2564.70 3100.00 3,421.7 3796.92 4172.07

0 7

Loans and Advances 4,384.1 4761.10 3086.80 2,780.0 2131.38 1,482.73

0 3

total asset turnover ratio 0.31 0.36 0.43 0.51 0.57 0.67

Current Liabilities & 2,214. 2886.8 2391.7 2,674.8 2763.3 2657.35

Provisions 60 0 0 0 5

Net Current Asset Excluding 6,430. 7,377.7 7,455.9 7,964.9 8,368.7 8,962.22
Cash 40 0 0 7 2

Miscellaneous Items
Cash Flow Statement
 Cash Flow from Operating Activities

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09( FY10(

E) E)

PAT 4612.9 6289.3 10140. 12936. 12063.

0 0 40 48 76

Add Depreciation 351.70 413.40 561.10 753.00 1010.5

: 3

Add Interest Expense 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

:

Add Other Non-Cash Charges 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

:

Add Direct taxes paid 273.90 116.10 381.60 463.33 562.48

:

Operating Profit Before WC 5238.5 6818.8 11083. 14152. 13636.

Changes 0 0 10 81 77

Changes in Current Assets (1619.5 416.90 (792.1 (492.3 (487.5

(excluding cash) 0) 7) 0) 0)

Changes in Current Liabilities 672.20 (495.1 283.10 88.55 (106.0

0) 0)

Changes In WC (947.30 (78.20) (509.0 (403.7 (593.5

) 7) 5) 0)

Cash Generated From 4291.2 6740.6 10574. 13749. 13043.

Operations 0 0 03 06 27

Less Direct Taxes Paid 273.90 116.10 381.60 463.33 562.48

:

Others 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Net Cash Generated From 4017.3 6624.5 10192 13285 12480

Operations 0 0 .43 .73 .79

Cash Flow from Investing Activities

Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) (1150.7 (955.5 (2987. (3885. (3052.