Hi ngh Khoa hc v Cng ngh bin ton quc ln th V - Tiu ban Kh tng, Thy vn v ng lc hc bin

D BO THI TIT, BO, SNG V NC DNG TRN BIN NG

Trn Tn Tin, Cng Thanh, Nguyn Minh Trng, L Th Hng Vn, Phm Th Minh, Phng ng Hiu, Ngc Qunh, Nguyn Th So. Trng i hc Khoa hc T nhin, HQGHN, 334 Nguyn Tri, H Ni Tm tt: Bo co gii thiu cc m hnh d bo kh tng RAMS, ETA, WRF, HRM, MM5, WBAR v cc m hnh d bo sng WAM, SWAN, STWAVE v d bo nc dng DELFT-3D, TSIM ang c s dng trong nghin cu v nghip v Vit Nam. Trong trnh by min tnh, li tnh, phng php to trng ban u cho cc m hnh nh cp nht s liu a phng, ci xoy nhn to, nui nhiu pht trin, t hp trng, t hp qu o bo. Mt s kt qu chnh v d bo trng kh tng thy vn hn 3 ngy trong iu kin thi tit bnh thng v khi c bo trn Bin ng c trnh by mt cch tm tt. y l nhng kt qu ca ti KC09-04 v KC08-05 c ngha khoa hc v phc v c thc tin. WEATHER, STORM, WAVES AND SURGE FORECASTING IN THE EAST VIETNAM SEA Abstract: The report introduces meteorological forecast models RAMS, ETA, WRF, HRM, MM5, WBAR; waves forecast models WAM,SWAN, STWAVE; and storm surge forecast models DELFT-3D, TSIM being used in research and operations in Vietnam. In the report the domain, grid, methods for creating inition conditions as local data assimilation, artificial cyclon breeding, the EPS, the storm trajectory ensemble are presented. Some key results about the weather forecast for 3 days in normal and storms conditions in East Vietnam Sea has been presented in a summary. These are the results of the research project KC09-04 and KC08-05 and scientific significance and service practices. I. M U Vit Nam nm trong vng nhit i gi ma v thuc mt trong nhng bo ln nht trn th gii. Hng nm c khong gn 10 cn bo v p thp nhit i nh hng n nc ta. V vy vic d bo kh tng thy vn bin l vn c quan tm ca ton x hi. Cc m hnh s d bo thi tit c a vo ng dng nghip v v nghin cu Vit Nam t nhng nm 80. Tuy nhin, cht lng d bo ca cc m hnh ny nhiu lc cha p ng c yu cu thc t t ra do sai s ln, c bit l d bo qu o v cng bo. Nguyn nhn c bn l do sai s v tr v cng bo trong cc trng phn tch v d bo ton cu, cng vi cc xp x vt l v thut ton cha tt tn ti trong mi m hnh. Mt h ly tip theo ca vic d bo kh tng khng chnh xc l chng ta s khng th c c cc d bo sng, dng chy v nc dng do bo cng nh cc cnh bo khu vc st l chnh xc phc v cng tc phng chng lt bo, gim nh thin tai v khai thc ti nguyn bin. ng trc thc tin nu trn, trong khun kh ca Chng trnh Khoa hc v Cng ngh KC08 v KC09 xut cc ti d bo kh tong thy vn bin t 2001 n nay. Kt qu t c ca cc ti trn cho php xy dng cc phng php d bo lin hon mi v thi tit, bo, sng v nc dng Vit Nam. V mt k thut, a ra c cng ngh d bo lin hon s dng cc m hnh s d bo thi tit v hi dng. Cc sn phm ca ti c

Hi ngh Khoa hc v Cng ngh bin ton quc ln th V - Tiu ban Kh tng, Thy vn v ng lc hc bin

ngha khoa hc v thc tin ln. Di y trnh by mt s kt qu ca chnh ca ti KC09-04 v KC08-05. II. CC M HNH D BO KH TNG THY VN BIN nc ta vic p dng cc m hnh s d bo thi tit ni chung v bo ni ring cng nh cc m hnh d bo thy vn bin mi thc s c pht trin mnh m trong thi gian gn y do pht trin internet v u t c s h tng k thut cng nh cng ngh d bo. Trong cng trnh ny s dng m hnh s tr. Cc c tnh c bn ca cc m hnh c trnh by tm lc di y. 1. M hnh HRM: M hnh d bo thi tit khu vc phn gii cao HRM (High resolution Regional Model) l m hnh thu tnh, s dng h phng trnh nguyn thu, bao gm y cc qu trnh vt l nh: bc x, m hnh t, cc qu trnh ri trong lp bin, to ma qui m li, i lu nng v i lu su. M hnh HRM c pht trin ti Tng cc Thi tit Cng ha lin bang c (DWD) v ang c chy nghip v ti nhiu c quan kh tng quc gia nh ti Philipin, Brazil, Ty Ban Nha, c, Vit Nam. d bo qu o bo trn bin ng, m hnh HRM chn cc thng s sau: H to lai vi s mc l 38, S i lu dng khi (mass flux) theo Tiedke (1989) bao gm ba loi: i lu nng, i lu mc gia v i lu su. 2. M hnh WRF: M hnh nghin cu v d bo thi tit (WRF) c pht trin trong s cng tc n lc ca NCAR, NCEP, FSL, AFWA v Trng i hc Oklahoma (OU) . M hnh WRF s dng h to thng ng a hnh (Mesinger, 1987) vi y cc tham s ha vt l nh i lu, lp bin, vi vt l my, bc x v m hnh t. Mt cch khi qut, m hnh WRF l mt h thng m hnh ha ht sc hin i, linh hot v ti u cho c mc ch nghin cu cng nh chy nghip v. y l m hnh phi thy tnh vi cc s tham s ha vt l c tch hp. d bo qu o bo trn bin ng, m hnh WRF chn 28 mc theo phng thng ng v s i lu Kain Fritsch. 3. M hnh ETA: M hnh d bo thi tit phi thy tnh ETA c pht trin trong khun kh hp tc nghin cu gia hai c quan kh tng Nam T v M t trc nm 1987. M hnh ny s dng h to eta h, lm cho yu t a hnh mt trong cc yu t gy nh hng quan trng ln chuyn ng ca cc khi kh trong kh quyn c ng n hn. M hnh ETA s dng y cc tham s ha vt l nh i lu, lp bin, vi vt l my, bc x v m hnh t. Theo khng gian, m hnh ETA s dng li sai phn xen k Arakawa-E trong cc bin v hng c xen k v lch i na bc li so vi cc bin c hng. d bo qu o bo trn bin ng, m hnh ETA chn 38 mc theo phng thng ng v s i lu Betts Miller-Janjic. 4. M hnh MM5: M hnh kh tng ng lc quy m va th h th 5 (MM5) ca Trung tm Nghin cu Kh quyn Quc gia M (NCAR) v Trng i hc Tng hp Pennsylvania M (PSU). M hnh s dng s Grell (1993) cho i lu, Simple Ice cho vt l vi m trong my, MRF cho lp bin hnh tinh, Dudhia (1989) cho bc x, LSM cho cc qu trnh t - b mt, 38 mc theo phng thng ng. 5. M hnh chnh p WBAR: M hnh WBAR l m hnh chnh p da trn h phng trnh nc nng c vit trong h ta cu bao gm 2 phng trnh chuyn ng ngang v phng trnh lin tc. Trong th tc ban u ha trng ban u ca m hnh c xc nh theo cng thc sau:
Trng ban u = Trng phn tch ton cu Xoy phn tch + Xoy nhn to

Hi ngh Khoa hc v Cng ngh bin ton quc ln th V - Tiu ban Kh tng, Thy vn v ng lc hc bin

Trong xoy i xng nhn to l s kt hp gia xoy i xng phn tch v xoy i xng gi c xy dng t cc thng tin ch th bo (TC advisories). d bo qu o bo trn bin ng, m hnh WBAR chn phng n to trng ban u l KILOEF: Tch hp 8 ty chn s ban u ha xoy vi 4 ty chn profile gi tip tuyn i xng gi v 32 ty chn mc dng dn. 6. M hnh RAMS: M hnh RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) c i hc Tng hp Colorado (CSU) kt hp vi ASTER divsion- thuc Mission Research Corporation pht trin a mc ch. M hnh RAMS c cc nh khoa hc thuc Khoa KT-TV-HDH, Trng H Khoa Hc T Nhin H Ni a vo nghin cu ti Vit Nam t nm 2001. n nm 2004, GS.TS Trn Tn Tin cng cc cng s ca ng tin hnh ci tin, p dng thnh cng m hnh RAMS trong d bo thi tit ti Vit Nam v hon thnh ti nghin cu cp nh nc Xy dng m hnh d bo cc trng Kh tng Thy vn bin ng Vit Nam. Kt qu nghin cu ch ra k nng d bo u vit ca m hnh RAMS i vi cc trng kh tng trn lnh th Vit Nam. d bo qu o bo trn bin ng, m hnh RAMS chn cc thng s sau: phn gii theo phng thng ng l 30 mc v s i lu KuO. 7. M hnh d bo sng ngoi khi - WAM WAM l m hnh sng i dng nhng n cho php tnh n nh hng ca dng chy v nc nng, nn c th chy cho nc nng, su v xt khc x do bin i su v khc x do dng chy. Tnh ton lan truyn sng c th thc hin trn li kinh v hoc li carthesian. M hnh truy xut chiu cao sng c ngha, hng v tn s sng trung bnh, chiu cao v hng sng lng trung bnh, trng ng sut gi c hiu chnh do xt n ng sut sng v h s cn, v ph sng 2 chiu ti nhng thi im v im li c chn .Trong ti ny m hnh s dng li 0.25o tng ng vi khong cch li l khong 28 km. 8. M hnh d bo sng ven b SWAN SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) l m hnh tnh ton tin trin sng trong vng ven b th h ba do nhm chuyn gia H Lan ti vin Delft pht trin. M hnh SWAN l gii h phng trnh cn bng tc ng ph dng t do khng chu mt qui nh no v dng ph v d dng lng ghp vi cc m hnh sng i dng th h ba khc nh m hnh WAM hay WAVE-WATCH III, cc m hnh ny hin nay ang c s dng rng ri ti cc nc trn th gii phc v cho mc ich tnh ton d bo sng bin khi v ven b. M hnh SWAN yu cu cc d liu u vo c bn bao gm: a hnh vng tnh ton; s liu gi 10 mt mt bin; s liu ph sng trn bin m. Cc d liu ny c ngi dng thit lp cho cc vng theo mc ch tnh ton c th. Trong cc d liu trn bin c chit xut t m hnh sng i dng nh WAM. 9. M hnh tnh sng STWAVE 3.0 Tng tc gia sng v dng chy c xc nh khi sng truyn trn mt nn dng chy. Trong m hnh STWAVE tnh ton khc x v bin dng trng sng khi truyn vo vng ven b da trn c s p dng lut bo ton nng lng dc theo tia sang, nhiu x c tnh trn c s s phn tn nng lng sng theo nguyn l l phng. Nng lng ca gi truyn cho sng c phn b di tc ng ca hin tng tng tc phi tuyn gia cc sng. Nng lng sng s b tiu tn ch yu l s ti nng lng v cc tn s cao v tiu tn di tc ng ca hiu ng sng bc u v hiu ng ri, nht ca nc. Tn ti s cn bng ng lc gia nng lng ca gi truyn cho sng v nng lng tiu hao do hiu ng dng nng lng phi tuyn ca sng phn tn vo khu vc tn s cao. Cc tens ng sut bc x sng c tnh theo l thuyt sng tuyn tnh. Cc li c thit k theo hng bc nam v ng ty nhm mc ch ph hp vi li tnh sng vng nc su t m hnh WAM v cc li ny s bao ph c ton b khu vc ven b vnh Bc B vi cc hng ng b khc
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Hi ngh Khoa hc v Cng ngh bin ton quc ln th V - Tiu ban Kh tng, Thy vn v ng lc hc bin

nhau. Bin ngoi khi ca cc li tnh phi t ti su khong 30m tr ln v c cha cc im tnh ca li tnh sng vng nc su t m hnh WAM. chn bc li 200m. 10. M hnh DELFT3D M un dng chy Delft3D-FLOW gii cc phng trnh nc nng khng dng 2 chiu (trung bnh theo su) hoc 3 chiu. H cc phng trnh bao gm cc phng trnh chuyn ng, phng trnh lin tc v phng trnh ti - khuch tn. Cc phng trnh c xy dng trong h to ch nht, cong trc giao, hoc to cu. Dng chy b tc ng bi thy triu bin h, ma st gi mt thong, chnh lch p sut do chnh lch mc b mt hoc chnh lch mt . Cc ngun thm vo v bt i (source and sink) cng c a vo trong cc phng trnh m hnh ho ngun vo v ngun ra ca nc. 11. M hnh TSIM2001 Trn c s cc kt qu nghin cu v nc dng xy dng v kim nh thnh cng m hnh ton hc m phng tnh ton d bo hin tng nc dng bo trong vng bin Vit Nam vi b chng trnh TSIM (Typhoon Surges by Institute of Mechanics) c hon thin theo cc version khc nhau. T thit lp c bc tranh phn b cc c trng ch nc dng bo dc vng ven bin nc ta v xy dng quy trnh d bo nc dng bo cho cc cn bo trong tng lai. Nhng kt qu ny c tip nhn ng dng trong thc t, cung cp nhng thng s c trng ch nc dng bo cho cc d n, cng trnh xy dng ven bin v s dng cc phn mm cho cng tc d bo nghip v v nc dng bo. Trong khun kh ti nh nc Xy dng cng ngh d bo lin hon bo, nc dng v sng Vit Nam bng m hnh s vi thi gian d bo trc ba ngy (m s KC.08.05/06-10) s dng b chng trnh TSIM c hon thin v lin kt vi b chng trnh tnh d bo bo cho vng Bin ng v vng bin ln cn Vit Nam c kt qu d bo nc dng bo. Ngha l cc kt qu tnh ton d bo cc trng kh tng trong bo s c s dng trc tip nh cc s liu u vo ca m hnh tnh nc dng bo. III. MIN TNH, S LIU U VO CHO CC M HNH Trong nghin cu ny, cc trng phn tch v d bo 6 gi mt ca m hnh ton cu GFS vi phn gii ngang 1x1 kinh v c s dng lm iu kin ban u v iu kin bin cho cc m hnh kh tng vi min tnh ( 50S 350 N , 900 E 1300 E ) gm 161x161 im li , bc li 28 km. Tp s liu ph thuc bao gm 838 trng hp v c lp gm c 61 trng hp. Trng phn tch ton cu GFS c ni suy v cc im li v cp nht s liu a phng. Trong trng hp c bo trng kh tng c ci thm xoy gi v cy thm cc nhiu pht trin nhanh ca m hinh. Cng ngh cp nht s liu a phng, ci xoy gi, to nhiu pht trin nhanh ca m hnh c trnh by trong bo co tng kt v chuyn ca cc ti KC09-04 v KC08-05. d bo sng ngoi khi s dng li tnh c phn gii l 0,25o x 0,250 kinh v, phm vi: t -10 S n 230 N v t 990 E n 1190 E. S liu a hnh do D n Vit Nam - Na Uy cung cp. Trng gi trung bnh thng ly ca NOAA , trng gi mc 10m v trng kh p mt bin l u ra ca m hnh kh tng. Trong nghin cu ny, s dng trng t hp ca hai m hnh kh tng RAMS v WRF. T kt qu u ra ca hai m hnh kh tng RAMS V WRF ly ra cc trng kh p mc bin, trng a th v, gi, nhit v m ti 10 mc 1000, 850, 700, 500, 300, 200, 150 v 100mb tnh trung bnh cc trng ny ca hai m hnh v ci xoy gi nhm khi phc li cu trc v v tr ca xoy bo m hnh sao cho gn vi xoy bo thc nht. tnh sng ven b bng STWAVE li tnh sng c thit lp vi bc li l 200m x 200m. Nguyn tc ca cc li tnh sng l cn thit phi c trc X l trc hng t ngoi khi vo b sao cho trng sng vng nc su truyn vo c hng to vi trc ny mt gc

Hi ngh Khoa hc v Cng ngh bin ton quc ln th V - Tiu ban Kh tng, Thy vn v ng lc hc bin

cng gn 00 cng tt. tnh sng ven b bng SWAN chia b bin Vit Nam thnh 5 vng. Bng 1. Vng tnh ton cho SWAN
Tn vng QN-TH NA-QB QT-QN BD-NT BT-CM Kinh u 105.5 105.5 106.75 108 103.5 Kinh cui V u 19.25 17 14.5 11.25 7.75 V cui 21.5 19.5 17.25 14.75 11.5

108.25
108.25 110.5 111 110

Cc m hnh sng ven b cn cc d liu u vo c bn bao gm: a hnh vng tnh ton; s liu gi 10 mt mt bin; s liu ph sng trn bin m. Cc d liu ny c ngi dng thit lp cho cc vng, trong cc d liu trn bin c chit xut t m hnh sng i dng WAM. Min tnh cho m hnh DELFT3D l ton vng Bin ng gii hn t 99oE-121oE v 1oN-25oN , li tnh l li cong trc giao, khong cch li tha nht pha ng, pha nam v mn dn v pha b bin Vit Nam. H ta kinh v c s dng trong m hnh. Cc bin lng ca cho m hnh l Taiwan, Bashi v Mallaca. Dao ng mc nc thy triu ti cc bin lng c tnh ton theo m un TIDE t hng s iu ha ca 8 sng K1, O1, M2, S2, P1, Q1, N2, K2 ly t b hng s iu ha ton cu ca d n Topex/Poseidon vi phn gii 1/8 . Vi m hnh TSIM chn: nhm sng bn nht triu: M2, S2, N2, K2, nhm sng nht triu: K1, O1, P1, Q1, nhm sng nc nng: M4, MS4, M6, nhm sng chu k di: Sa, Ssa.. S liu kh tng cho cc m hnh nc dng gm trng gi v trng p ly t kt qu d bo t hp ca cc m hnh kh tng RAMS, WRF c ci xoy gi lm tng cng ca bo trong m hnh gn vi cng ca cn bo thc. IV. CC KT QU D BO 1. D bo thi tit Cc trng kh tng: a th v H, gi ngang U,V, nhit T, m tng i RH c d bo bng cc m hnh v t hp (EPS). Kt qu c trnh by trn hnh 1 v bng 2. T kt qu cho thy d bo t hp cho kt qu tng ng vi cc nc trong khu vc. Kt qu ca t hp Kt qu ca ETA Kt qu ca RAMS Ngy 11/7/2004 H 700 T= 48h

Hnh 1. Trng a th v mt 700 mb d bo 48 gi Bng 2: H s tng quan trung bnh ca cc d bo 48 gi

HSTQTB ca EPS 0.7 0.87 0.91 0.88 0.8 HSTQTB ca ETA 0.72 0.87 0.89 0.84 0.71 HSTQTB ca RAMS 0.63 0.82 0.89 0.85 0.73

2. D bo qu o bo
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Hi ngh Khoa hc v Cng ngh bin ton quc ln th V - Tiu ban Kh tng, Thy vn v ng lc hc bin

Qu o bo c d bo bng phng php siu t hp (SUPERENSEMBLE) v phng php nui nhiu pht trin (BGM). Phng php siu t hp da trn kt qu d bo t 2 n 7 m hnh. Trng s ca m hnh ph thuc cht lng d bo ca n. chn ra 10 t hp tt nht ca b t hp 2 m hnh v b 7 m hnh trnh din. Sai s trung bnh khong cch tm bo (Km) ca cc b t hp ny c biu din trn hnh 2 v 3. Sai s d bo y t tm khu vc ca chng ta (d bo 72 gi v tr tm bo sai khong 300 km). Trn cc hnh 2 v 3 cc con s k hiu m hnh: 1. HRM , 2. WBAR , 3. WRF, 4. ETA, 5. MM5, 6. BARO, 7. BAROCT (BARO ci tin), 8. RAMS, 9. RAMSBOG (RAMS ci xoy).

Hnh 2. Sai s trung bnh khong cch tm bo (Km) trng hp t hp 2 m hnh tt nht (s liu ph thuc)

Hnh 3. Sai s trung bnh khong cch tm bo (Km) trng hp t hp 7 m hnh tt nht (s liu ph thuc) T kt qu trn cho ta thy thay i t hp s thay i sai s d bo song mc thay i ph thuc vo m hnh tham gia t hp v s lng m hnh tham gia t hp. Tng s m hnh tham gia t hp sai s d bo gim nhng s gim l chm dn. Kt qu trn gip ta chn c t hp ti u ph hp vi iu kin k thut ca c s d bo. p dng phng php nui nhiu d bo qu o 7 cn bo v p thp nhit i (xoy thun nhit i, XTN) hot ng trn bin ng trong ma bo nm 2006. Kt qu d bo oc trnh by trn hnh 4 v bng 2.
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72

S dng phng php BGM

D bo kim tra

Hnh 4. Sai s khong cch trung bnh (MPE) ca d bo bng phng php BGM v d bo kim tra (Km). Nh vy ta thy trong cc trng hp xt phng n d bo s dng phng php BGM cho sai s v tr tm bo gim gn 100 km trong cc thi hn d bo 48, 60 v 72h. Nh vy phng php BGM lm tng chnh xc d bo vi cc hn d bo t 2 ngy tr ln.

Hi ngh Khoa hc v Cng ngh bin ton quc ln th V - Tiu ban Kh tng, Thy vn v ng lc hc bin

a: D bo t hp 72h qu o bo Durian 7h ngy 01/12/2006

b: D bo t hp 72h qu o bo Prapiroon 7h ngy 31/07/2006

c: D bo t hp 72h qu o bo Utor 7h ngy 11/12/2006

d: D bo t hp 72h qu o bo Chanchu 7h ngy 13/05/2006

e: D bo t hp 72h qu o bo Xangsane 7h ngy 27/09/2006

f: D bo t hp 72h qu o bo Cimaron 7h ngy 28/10/2006

g: D bo t hp 72h qu o bo Chebi 7h ngy 11/11/2006 3. D bo cng bo s dng phng php siu t hp xy dng phng trnh d bo p sut tm bo v tc gi cc i da trn kt qu d bo ca 3 m hnh RAMS, WRF v HRM. Cc sai s d bo c biu din trn hnh 5 v 6a.
Biu sai s bnh phng trung bnh
70.00 60.00 50.00
WRF

Hnh 5. D bo 72h qu o bo bng m hnh RAMS ca 7 cn bo nghin cu. Qu o d bo kim tra: ng nt t c chm trn; Qu o d bo nui nhng dao ng pht trin nhanh: ng nt lin mng (12 ng); Qu o d bo t hp: ng nt lin c chm trn; Qu o thc (Nht bn): ng nt lin c hnh tam gic

RMSE

40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 00h 06h 12h 18h 24h 30h 36h 42h 48h 54h 60h 66h 72h

RAMS HRM EPS

Hn d bo

Hnh 6a. Biu sai s bnh phng trung bnh (Mb2) ca d bo t hp v ba m hnh thnh phn (s liu c lp) D bo cng bo bng m hnh s l vn kh hin nay trn th gii cn ang nghin cu v th nghim. ti ny cng ch th nghim nh gi kh nng d bo cng bo ca cc m hnh s Vit Nam. ti s dng cng thc d bo p sut tm bo ci xoy gi vo trng kh p t hp phc v d bo sng v nc dng.
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Hi ngh Khoa hc v Cng ngh bin ton quc ln th V - Tiu ban Kh tng, Thy vn v ng lc hc bin

Bng 3. Cc sai s trung bnh, trung bnh tuyt i v bnh phng trung bnh ti cc hn d bo
Hn DB 24h 48h 72h ME (M/s) -8.02 -5.27 14.22 MAE (M/s) 11.90 8.51 14.22 RMSE(M2/s2) 15.23 10.30 14.96

4. D bo sng ngoi khi nh gi kt qu d bo, bn trng sng d bo bng WAM ca ti v bn trng sng do t chc SEAMOS pht bo trn internet c trnh by trn hnh 6b.

00h 27/9/05 (GMT) M hnh WAM d bo 72h

00h 27/9/05 (GMT) Pht bo ca SEAMOS

Hnh 6b: S ph hp gia trng sng d bo vi trng d bo ca nc ngoi (SEAMOS) trong cn bo Damrey. 5. D bo sng ven b Kt qu d bo sng ven b trong cn bo Mujigae cho khu vc Ngh An-Qung Bnh bng SWAN biu din trn hnh 7. Hnh 8 v 9 th hin cao sng d bo ca cc m hnh SWAN , STWAVE v cao sng kho st ti Qung Bnh. Kt qu d bo cho thy cc m hnh d bo sng ven b d bo c cao sng khi bo vo b vi sai s khong 0,2 0,5 m.

D bo 24h D bo 48h D bo 72h Hnh 7. Bn d bo sng ven b trong cn bo Mujigae, khu vc NA-QB, vi thi im bt u d bo lc 06 gi (GMT) ngy 09/09/2009
SL O C 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 00h 24h 48h 72h
Hn d bo (gi)

MHDB

Hnh 8. th biu din cao sng cc hn d bo khc nhau (cn bo MUJIGAE), vi thi im bt u d bo lc 06 gi (GMT) ngy 09/09/2009

cao sng (m)

Hi ngh Khoa hc v Cng ngh bin ton quc ln th V - Tiu ban Kh tng, Thy vn v ng lc hc bin

1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 30 36 42 48 54 60 Hn d bo (gi)

cao sng (m)

quan trac st_wave

Hnh 9. th biu din cao sng ven b quan trc v d bo ca m hnh sng ven b STWAVE ti cc hn d bo vi thi im d bo 00(GMT) ngy 10/9/2009 6. D bo nc dng do bo tnh mc nc dng tai cc trm theo hai phng n: Tnh nc dng ch do gi v p (bin triu H=0) v tnh nc dng trn nn dao ng thy triu. Kt qu tnh ton vi cn bo Ketsana (hnh 10) cho thy mc nc v nc dng ti trm Ca Vit d bo c rt ph hp vi s liu o cn ti trm Sn Tr nhng ngy u mc nc tnh c thp hn thc t, nhng ngy sau ph hp hn. Kt qu ny c th do nhng ngy u m hnh cha thch ng kp. d bo nc dng bng TSIM cho mt s cn bo b vo b bin Vit Nam. Hnh 12 v 13 biu din ng bao nc dng cc i dc b do bo Parma 2009. Bng 3 tnh ton nc dng cho im kho st Qung Bnh
Trm Ca Vit bo Ketsana t 00z
Triu+dng_H=0 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 27-09-09 28-09-09 28-09-09 29-09-09 29-09-09 30-09-09 30-09-09 01-10-09 Mc nc kho st Delf3d_H=0 Nc dng thc t

Hnh 10. Mc nc v nc dng d bo v o c ti Ca Vit.

Hnh 11. ng bao nc dng cc i dc b bo Parma 2009

Hnh 12. Bin trnh nc dng bo Parma ti khu vc nc dng ln nht Bng 4. Nc dng kho st v d bo bng TSIM-10 (cm)
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Hi ngh Khoa hc v Cng ngh bin ton quc ln th V - Tiu ban Kh tng, Thy vn v ng lc hc bin S liu kho st Nc dng 42 25 D bo TSIM-10 Nc dng 57 80 Sai s Nc dng -15 -55

Bo Parma Xangsane

Trm Ca Cm Sn Tr

Ngy, gi (VN) 16h-14/10/2009 14h-30/9/2006

Kt qu nh gi d bo nc dng bng m hnh TSIM vi cc im kho st trong cc cn bo trong bng 4 cho thy vi 2 im kho st 2 khu vc khc nhau trong hai cn bo th m hnh TSIM cho kt qu d bo mc nc tng cng v cao nc dng ln nht cao hn thc t t 10-50cm. Do kt qu tnh cho tng im nn sai s c im hi cao so vi gi tr sai s trung bnh. Kt qu cho thy c th s dng m hnh trong d bo nghip v. V. KT LUN Trong khun kh ca hai ti cp nh nc KC0904 v KC0805 p dng c phng php d bo t hp thi tit, bo, sng, nc dng vo Vit Nam v xy dng n thnh mt h thng lin hon t d bo kh tng n thy vn bin. Kt qu d bo ca h thng t trnh cc nc trong khu vc v p ng c mt s yu cu ca thc t trong khai thc ti nguyn bin v phng chng thin tai Vit Nam. Cng ngh d bo c th chuyn giao cho tt c cc c quan lm cng tc nghip v v nghin cu. Nhn dp ny tp th tc gi xin cm n B Khoa hoc v Cng ngh, ban ch nhim cc chng trnh KC08, KC09, Ban Gim hiu trng i hc KHTN- HQG H Ni to mi iu kin thun li cho chng ti hon thnh cc ti. TI LIU THAM KHO 1. Bo co tng kt ti cp nh nc KC.08.05. H Ni, 2010: XY DNG CNG NGH
D BO LIN HON BO, NC DNG V SNG VIT NAM BNG M HNH S VI THI GIAN D BO TRC 3 NGY . M S : KC.08.05/06-10.

2. Bo co tng kt ti cp nh nc KC.09.04. H Ni, 2004: Xy dng m hnh d bo cc trng kh tng thy vn vng Bin ng.

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