Modeling Periodic Data

This table shows the average

monthly temperature for New
Orleans, LA.
Month Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun
.
Jul. Aug
.
Sep
.
Oct
.
Nov. Dec
.
F 54 55 61 69 73 79 82 81 77 71 59 55
Scatter Plot of the Data:
Finding Amplitude
To find the amplitude, we can simply find
the difference between the maximum and
minimum values and divide by 2.
Maximum: 82 Minimum: 54
Amplitude (a) = 82-54 = 14
2
Finding Vertical Shift
The average of the maximum and minimum
temperatures turns out to be a good choice
for d, the vertical shift.
Vertical Shift (d) = 82+54 = 68
2
This tells us how far up we need to shift
our graph from the x-axis.
Finding Period
These average temperatures repeat every
12 months, so 12 months is the period of the
graph.

Period =



12
2
b

b

6
Cross multiply to get
Finding Phase Shift
Finding the phase shift is a little tricky. Remember
that for the graph of y = sinx, the maximum is at
/2, which is of the period.
If the period is 12, instead of 2, the maximum
would be at 3 ( of 12).

The maximum average temperature in our data set
occurs in July, which corresponds to x = 7.
How much of a horizontal shift would shift the
maximum point of our graph from x = 3 to x = 7?

4 units to the right, so c -4.
Finding the Equation
Now we have all the pieces we need to
create an equation of the form
y = a sin b(x-c) + d

When we plug in all the variables, we get:

y 14sin

6
x 4
( )






+ 68
Finding a Better Approximation
If you plot the equation from the previous slide on
the same graph with your scatter plot, you will see
that it is a little off. Why do you think this is?

Remember that when we estimated the phase
shift, we used July (x = 7) as the maximum
temperature. If you look at the table, you will see
that the temperatures in the months following
July are higher than the temperatures in the
months preceding July. This means that we need
to increase our value of c just slightly to reflect
this data.



The Best Approximation
There is no precise way to do this, so we can just
increase c by increments of 0.1 until we get a graph
that more closely fits the data.

c 4.2 turns out to give us the best approximation.

Thus, the model for the average temperature in New

Orleans is:



y 14sin

6
x 4.2
( )






+ 68