SHUMWAY, HORCH, AND

SAGER
Thamrin Group
Adiet Andrian Cahyanto Dana - Ratna

Background
Need some money saving recomendations.
Facing a problem to decide contracted rate base.

Objective
Forecasting to decide number of copies each month.
Recomendations of contracted rate base.

Information
-

December greatly increase due to holiday recepies

and gift-giving idea.

January seemed to be low, cause of overspent and

overeaten feeling.

Revenue of $1 times the guarenateed rate base.

Not meet the base value, have to refund $1.25

times the shortfall in circulation.

Data
Year/Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Total
Average

1979

5,264,165
5,313,127
5,117,969
5,098,771
5,187,708
5,645,295

1980
5,023,173
5,333,352
5,224,234
5,079,207
5,167,277
5,006,445
5,150,974
5,180,346
5,223,467
5,153,303
5,247,109
5,789,798

1981
5,350,502
5,371,371
5,327,700
5,269,993
5,240,438
5,273,266
5,439,920
5,378,584
5,329,516
5,292,129
5,378,127
5,736,465

1982
5,073,651
5,553,245
5,439,363
5,363,948
5,367,404
5,316,957
5,412,745
5,387,779
5,439,224
5,341,392
5,396,853
5,961,612

1983
5,335,737
5,618,540
5,604,606
5,343,116
5,294,990
5,327,995
5,177,176
5,290,109
5,449,099
5,344,570
5,334,053
5,763,516

1984
5,198,585
5,501,741
5,329,592
5,322,838
5,178,815
5,247,590
5,194,827
5,118,408
5,291,564
5,047,946
5,105,056
5,448,542

1985
5,023,818
5,099,829
5,253,739
5,138,210
5,251,664
5,450,869
5,022,522
5,206,132
5,042,725
5,096,277
5,067,717
5,508,198

1986
5,133,963
5,180,897
5,161,222
5,174,238
5,047,775
5,152,063
5,001,222
5,232,314
5,235,207
5,009,584
5,352,370
5,498,755

1987
5,159,840
5,274,075
5,179,002
5,269,295
5,005,048
5,166,569
5,068,848
5,007,388
5,265,191
5,046,595
5,300,978
5,526,153

31,627,035

62,578,685

64,388,011

65,054,173

64,883,507

62,985,504

62,161,700

62,179,610

62,268,982

5,271,173

5,214,890

5,365,668

5,421,181

5,406,959

5,248,792

5,180,142

5,181,634

5,189,082

Patterns

Analysis
In Excel Sheet

Recomendation
1. It is not suggested to change the contract rate base from 4.75 mio to 6.5
mio since the forecasting for circulation just 5.02 mio on Jan 1988.
2. Increase the contract rate base into 5.16
3. Change the rate base into 6.5 will decrease revenue refund 20 mio,
compare with revenue of using 5.16 mio as contract rate base