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PRODUCT
PRESENTED BY:
RAJAT KAMAL (31)
RAJEEV RANJAN (32)
RAKESH RANJAN (33)
RANJEET SHAH (34)
RASIKA SALODKAR (35)
WHAT IS GDP?
THE GDP IS DEFINED AS THE MARKET
VALUE OF ALL FINAL GOODS AND SERVICES
PRODUCED WITHIN A COUNTRY IN A GIVEN
PERIOD OF TIME.
SPENDIND+ (EXPORT-IMPORT)
INCOME METHOD :
GDP= COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES +
INTEREST+PROFIT+STRATICAL
ADJUSTMENT+ WAGES
COMPONENTS
OF GDP
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION:
HOUSEHOLD EXP. SUCH AS FOOD,
RENT,MEDICAL EXP. ETC
INVESTMENT: CAPITAL
EXPENDITURE
GOVT SPENDING
CUMULATIVE EXPORT
CONTD…….
CONTD…….
COMPENSATION OF ENPLOYEE
GROSS OPERATING SURPLUS
MIXED INCOME
RENT
INTREST
PROFIT
STATISTICAL ADJUT(CORPORATE
INCOME
TAXES,DIVIDENDS,UNDISTRIBUTED
CORPORATE PROFIT)
WAGES
CROSS-BORDER
COMPARISION
GDP OF DIFFERENT
COUNTRIES CAN BE
COMPARED BY FOLLOWING
METHODS:
CURRENT CURRENCY
EXCHANGE RATE
PURCHASING POWER PARITY
RATE
GDP PER CAPITA
CONTD…
CURRENT EXCHANGE RATE
METHOD CONVERTS THE VALUE OF
GOODS AND SERVICES USING
GLOBAL CURRENCY EXCHANGE
RATE.
9. Black markets.
Requirements of political
supporters and budgetary
G=Gov’t constraints influence fiscal
policy decisions on both G and
Spending T (taxes)
PROJECTED US$ GDP PER
CAPITA GROWTH
Brazil China India Russia France Germany Italy Japan UK US
2000-05 9.8 9.2 3.7 7.0 2.2 1.4 2.7 1.1 3.0 2.6
2005-10 6.3 11.2 7.5 10.3 1.5 2.0 1.6 0.9 1.9
1.7
2010-15 6.4 9.2 7.4 8.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.9 1.3
2015-20 6.2 7.8 7.2 7.5 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.3
2020-25 4.6 7.3 7.4 6.1 1.6 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.2 1.4
2025-30 4.7 6.9 8.2 6.2 1.6 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.7
2030-35 5.2 6.5 8.9 5.2 1.6 1.7 0.8 1.0 1.7 1.9
2035-40 5.3 6.3 8.9 4.3 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.2 2.0 2.0
2040-45 5.0 5.9 8.3 3.6 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.9
2045-50 4.9 5.4 7.6 3.4 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.9
ProjectedUS$GDP Per Capita Growth: 5-Year Averages
Average
%yoy
BRICs VS G6
`
BRICs ECONOMIC
TREND
LARGER FORCE IN THE WORLD ECONOMY.
GROWTH IN PER CAPITA INCOME & CURRENCY
MOVEMENTS.
LARGER THAN THE G6 IN US DOLLAR.
KEY CHALLENGES IS DEVELOPMENT ON TRACK.
DUE TO SLOW DOWN IN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN
DEVELOPED COUNTRY.
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS INCREASED.
BRIC ARE EMERGING MARKET.
DRAMATICALLY DIFFFERENT
WORLD
ECONOMIC SIZE
ECONOMIC GROWTH
INCOMES AND DEMOGRAPHICS
GLOBAL DEMAND PATTERNS
CURRENCY MOVEMENTS
BY 2025 BRICs ECONOMIES OVER HALF AS
LARGE AS THE G6
BY 2040 OVERTAKE THE G6
THE CONDITION FOR
GROWTH
MACRO STABILITY
INSTITUTIONS
OPENNESS
EDUCATION
GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT
GROWTH IN THE CAPITAL STOCK
TECHICAL PROGRESS(OR TOTAL FACTOR
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH)
BRICs REAL GDP GROWTH
% Brazil China India Russia
2000-2005 2.7 8.0 5 .3 5.9
2005-2010 4.2 7.2 6.1 4.8
2010-2015 4.1 5.9 5.9 3.8
2015-2020 3.8 5.0 5.7 3.4
2020-2025 3.7 4.6 5.7 3.4
2025-2030 3.8 4.1 5.9 3.5
2030-2035 3.9 3.9 6.1 3.1
2035-2040 3.8 3.9 6.0 2.6
2040-2045 3.6 3.5 5.6 2.2
2045-2050 3.4 2.9 5.2 1.9
GSBRICs Model Projections. .
BRICsReal GDP Growth: 5-Year Period Averages
GOLDMAN SACHS VS
LEVINE RENELT MODEL
30 year average
Real GDP Growth
GOLDMAN SACHS LEVINE-RENALT MODEL
Brazil 3.7 3.3
Russia 3.9 3.5
India 5.8 5.3
China 5.6 5.8
Comparing Our Projections With the Levine-Renelt Model
CHALLENGES FOR BRICs
MUCH LESS OPEN TO TRADE
INVESTMENT AND SAVING ARE
LOWER
PUBLIC AND FOREIGN DEDT
ARE MUCH HIGHER
POPER GOVT POLICY
WRAPPING UP
IT MEASURE ECONOMIC
HEALTH
BRICs WILL OVERTAKE G6
DETERMINES THE STANDARD
OF LIVING
UNDERSTANDING THE GLOBAL
DEMAND PATTERN
IT HELPS TO BE CYNOSORE IN
THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC
WAIT……………
WILL INDIA BECOME SUPERPOWER LIKE USA?