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Limitaciones del VE
Es til para decisiones repetitivas
Es una buena aproximacin para montos
pequeos
De nuevo La Rifa
1 Recibe Billete
Decisin
FALSE
S/. 10.00
S/. 19.00
2 C ompra Rifa
0%
S/. 10.00
2.1 Gana
TRUE
S/. -1.00
1%
S/. 2,000.00
1%
S/. 1,999.00
S/. 20.00
2.2 Pierde
99%
S/. 0.00
99%
S/. -1.00
El VE no es suficiente
El VE es un promedio, pues los promedios
ocultan la informacin
Para comparar alternativas a veces es
necesario comparar el riesgo asociado a
nuestras opciones
Varias opciones
Recibe Billete
FALSE
S/. 10.00
0%
S/. 10.00
Gana
Rifa 1
Decisin
TRUE
S/. -1.00
S/. 19.00
1%
S/. 2,000.00
99%
S/. 0.00
50%
Rifa 2
S/. -1.00
S/. 1,999.00
S/. 20.00
Pierde
FALSE
1%
S/. 140.00
S/. 20.00
50%
S/. -100.00
99%
S/. -1.00
0%
S/. 139.00
0%
S/. -101.00
Frecuencia
Histograma
20
100.00%
18
90.00%
16
80.00%
14
70.00%
12
60.00%
10
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
(5.5) (2.5) 0.5 3.5 6.4 9.4 12.4 15.3 18.3 21.3
Clase
100.00%
90.00%
Frecuencia
80.00%
70.00%
0.8
60.00%
0.6
50.00%
40.00%
0.4
30.00%
20.00%
0.2
10.00%
0
0.00%
(5.5) (2.5) 0.5 3.5 6.4 9.4 12.4 15.3 18.3 21.3
Clase
Dos Perfiles
100.00%
90.00%
Mayor riesgo
80.00%
70.00%
Menor riesgo
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
-10
-5
10
15
20
25
30
Funciones de Utilidad
Utilidad
Dinero (M)
Esta funcin lineal representa el caso en el cual la persona toma la
decisin usando el valor esperado
S/. 0.00
S/. 250,000.00
FALSE
S/. 150,000.00
S/. -100,000.00
S/. 250,000.00
50%
S/. 600,000.00
50%
S/. -100,000.00
50%
S/. 600,000.00
0%
S/. 150,000.00
U(-100000)=0
U(600000)=1
U(150000) = 0.5*U(-100000)+0.5*U(600000)
U(150000)= 0.5
50%
TRUE
Segunda decisin
S/. 0.00
S/. 375,000.00
FALSE
S/. 350,000.00
50%
S/. 150,000.00
S/. 375,000.00
50%
S/. 150,000.00
S/. 600,000.00
S/. 600,000.00
50%
0%
S/. 350,000.00
U(350000) = 0.5*U(150000)+0.5*U(600000)
U(350000)= 0.5*0.5+0.5*1
U(350000)= 0.75
50%
TRUE
Tercera decisin
S/. 0.00
S/. 25,000.00
FALSE
S/. 20,000.00
S/. 150,000.00
S/. 25,000.00
50%
S/. -100,000.00
50%
S/. 150,000.00
50%
S/. -100,000.00
0%
S/. 20,000.00
U(20000) = 0.5*U(150000)+0.5*U(-100000)
U(20000)= 0.5*0.5+0.5*0
U(20000)= 0.25