US 20130304680A1

(19) United States (12) Patent Application Publication (10) Pub. N0.: US 2013/0304680 A1
Bailey et al.
(54) PREDICTIVE CORROSION COUPONS FROM
DATA MINING

(43) Pub. Date:

(52) US. Cl.

NOV. 14, 2013

USPC ............................................. .. 706/15; 706/46

(75) Inventors: Richard S. Bailey, Surrey (GB); Kip P.

S ra ue, Anchora e, AK US ; Eric ZIiJegegl, Houston, T1; (US)( )

(57)

ABSTRACT

(73) Assignees: BP EXPLORATION OPERATING COMPANY LIMITED,

Sunbury-On-Thames (GB); BP CORPORATION NORTH AMERICA INCw Houston, TX (Us) In accordance With aspects of the present disclosure, a com puter-implemented method for predicting a material deterio ration of a coupon inserted into the Well line system is dis
closed. The computer-implemented method can be stored on

(21) Appl' No: 13/468585

(22) Filed
'

a tangible and non-transitory computer readable medium and

arranged to be executed by one or more processors that cause
the one or more processors to receive data related to the Well

May 10 2012

Publication Classi?cation

line system; determine one or more predictors of material deterioration of a coupon based on the data; and predict a

(51)

Int, Cl, G06N 5/02 G06N 3/02

(2006.01) (2006.01)

material deterioration of the coupon inserted into the Well line system based on a mathematical model of the material dete rioration using the one or more predictors.

305 \ CREATE STATISTICAL DATA

310\ 315/
320 /

I
CREATE NUMERICAL MODEL

I
TEST/REFINE MODEL

I
MAKE PREDICTIONS BASED ON MODEL

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 1 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 3 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

AVERAGE WELLHEAD TEMPERATURE

COUNT: MISSING: MAXIMUM: MINIMUM: MEAN: STANDARD DEVIATION:

3035.000 0.000 230.113 0.000 114.339 30.275

AVERAGE LIQUID SPACE VELOCITY

COUNT: 3035.000

MISSING:
MAXIMUM: MINIMUM: MEAN: STANDARD DEVIATION:

0.000
3.440 0.000 0.353 0.559

FIG. 4 <1
AVERAGE GAS SPACE VELOCITY
" COUNT: 3035.000

MISSING: MAXIMUM: MINIMUM: MEAN: sTANDARD DEVIATION:

0.000 135.535 0.000 3.137 10.311

MAXIMUM WELLHEAD TEMPERATURE

' COUNT: 3035.000

MISSING: MAXIMUM: MINIMUM: MEAN:

\ STANDARD DEVIATION:

0.000 334.000 0.000 143.399

59.243

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 4 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

AVERAGE LIQUID SPACE VELOCITY

COUNT: MISSING: MAXIMUM: MINIMUM: MEAN: STANDARD DEVIATION: 3085.000 0.000 1.238 -4.604 -0.903 1.208

MAXIMUM LIQUID SPACE VELOCITY

COUNT: MISSING: MAXIMUM: MINIMUM: MEAN: STANDARD DEVIATION: 3085.000 0.000 1.407 -4.570 -0.328 0.922

FIG. 5
AVERAGE GAS SPACE VELOCITY COUNT: MISSING: MAXIMUM: MINIMUM: MEAN: STANDARD DEVIATION: 3085.000 0.000 4.917 0.000 1.746 0.954

MAXIMUM GAS SPACE VELOCITY

COUNT: MISSING: MAXIMUM: MINIMUM: MEAN: STANDARD DEVIATION: 3085.000 0.000 5.125 0.000 2.363 0.975

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 6 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

l.corrate
l.corrate 1 .00

PRED|CT.?t
0.84

PRED|CT.?t

0.84

1.00

FIG. 7

EIEQQ
l.corrate PRED|CT.?t

l.corrate
PRED|CT.?t

1 .00
0.88

0.88
1.00

FIG. 8

Variable

Mean

Min

Max

l.corrate

0.61

-2.16

3.79

2
3

PRED|CT.?t
PREDlCT.residuals

0.62
-8.51E-3

-1.84
-2.77

3.21
2.52

FIG. 10

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 7 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

@@

w82=o5:=6238. E2% _ 8E2wai.e50p8oam;%35 _ :F w 88. 8; .8-5

NS w 88. 88 N 2.895.

888 w 28.?05 :l 88; 5 N 8.: 8 R; m: 8E 8 28.5 83m .8?5- cl 8m .85-. 8;

5m 8B8 .-:8~.

8.8 NE 82 38 N 8 :985

:8 v 8N8. 2.E8-5

.mv?m a
:3 3 2-8.05 m: 8w: 2 -.85 m8m:

N; 8m: : 2.85. N8 8NS NE 28.SN5 N3

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 8 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 9 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 10 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

MINER NAME

DESCRIPTION

EFFECT

TYPE

avg.gas

ALLOCATED GAS PRODUCED

3.33

NONLINEAR

puII+deIay

TIME SINCE LAST TREATMENT

-2.80

NONLINEAR

avg.oi|
wYear5

ALLOCATED OIL PRODUCED

ACROSS WELL STARTUP GROUPS

2.75
1.99

NONLINEAR
LINEAR

avg.vsg

GAS SUPERFICIAL VELOCITY

1.73

NONLINEAR

couponduration

COUPON TIME PERIOD LENGTH

-1.65

NONLINEAR

avg.vsl
sum.gas.|ift

LIQUID SUPERFICIAL VELOCITY

CUMULATIVE WELL GAS LIFT

1.58
-1.53

LINEAR
NONLINEAR

avg.c02

CO2 LEVEL

-1.50

NONLINEAR

pct working+shutin
avg.whp
number
treat.1990

WORKING HRS/PERIOD LENGTH

WELLHEAD PRESSURE
NUMBER OF SHUTINS
ACROSS TREATMENT YEARS

1.23
0.94
0.88
0.86

LINEAR
NONLINEAR
LINEAR
LINEAR

avg.water
sum.gas

ALLOCATED WATER PRODUCED

CUMULATIVE WELL GAS PRODUCED

0.85
0.82

NONLINEAR
LINEAR

span
sum.water

ACROSS ZONE
CUMULATIVE WELL WATER PRODUCED

-0.72
-O.47

NONLINEAR
LINEAR

pSDI
WHT

SDI VS MPI
WELLHEAD TEMPERATURE

0.46
-O.30

LINEAR
LINEAR

zone.K2

ACROSS PRODUCTION ZONE GROUPS

0.19

LINEAR

FIG. 15

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 11 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

GAS PRODUCTION SENSITIVITY

2 _

FIG. 16
I

I
l l I l l |

10

I.avg.gas

LIQUID SPACE VELOCITY SENSITIVITY

2 _

O
1 _ O

.
O _ Q

FIG. 17

-1 -

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 12 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

WELL GROUP
treat.none

wYear5 wYear8

wYear6

CATEGORY

wYea _
wYear3 wYear2
wYear1

wSDN

0
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 PREDICT. It 1.5 2.0

FIG. 18

|.corrate

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 13 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

FIG. 20

PRED|CT.residua|s

-2

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

PRED|CT.residua|s

0 _

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 14 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

FIG. 22

PRED|CT.residua|s

0 _

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

|.avg.|iftgas

FIG. 23
O

2
1

.-ig:?: -j'-',-;:_m,tw:
.~;a.
v Q I g a

OO

PRED|CT.residua|s

OO
O

mo
O O

00

O
O

OO
o O

@ Q03
O OO

O
O

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 15 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

FIG. 24
4-58
4-57
4-56 4-55 4-54

4-53

-......-.

IIIII

J1:

IIIIIIIIIIIIII

4-50 _
4-49

II...-

IIIIIIIIIIIII

' ;________'_:'______,,,, ,::.

143 _ _

II:%I=IIIIIIIIIIII
: m

_IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII::

I...-

III...

1_11 _IIIIIIIIIII:=::::::......

1'rr1: ; .Tl Iillllllllllll

IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII _ -_ IIIIIII III.

1-09 ....'.'.'.'.'.'.'.'.. 18 -.
1-07 .....'.'.'.'."

1_06 1-05

IIIIIIIIIII-m

1'04 _ IIIIIIIIIIlliiii-riil-ijiz
1_03 _ IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
1 - 0 2 _ I I I I I I I I I I I I I-I:-I.I-I.I.I.I.I-I-I.I

1-01

-2

-1

0 PRED|CT.residuals

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 16 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

year9
years

O
O

'----|I|'-"3
i- ------ "E ----- --~ 0

year7
year6
year5

o
I

'r----|IL3
o
\

00l- +I+3
r ---- ---|I|-:0

wellsubset year4 _
year3

0
o

mm IL----1I|----__<m 0
O I ____ __E'____3 @

FIG- 25

yearz - o o o 0L _______ __E ______ ___go o o

yew _

wool- ------ |II ---- --2 00

I ___ __:

SDN _
Eider I I

l'

E. ,
I I I

-2

-1 0 1 PREDlCT.residua|s

pitting.y.or.n (ALL DATA)

l
l

LEVELS
LEGEND
NO YES

I ; I

FIG. 27

|
l

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 17 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

++ ++ ++
wd Q0

v6 m6 Ho

Hm2 $6a L2 2E6% 56S2:;8

md
No
+

++

++

0.0

0.? |

wd |

Nd |

ed

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 18 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

INPUT NODE - PREDICT (10)

PREDICTED

TOTALS NO
No 287
77

YES
79
423

366
500

OBSERVED
YES

TOTALS

364

502

866

> FIG. 28

OBSERVED
OVERALL

NO
PERCENT AGREE 78.4%

YES
84.6% 82.0%

INPUT NODE - CLASSIFICATION

NEURAL NETWORK

PREDICTED

5 node+comp|ete model (8)

No

No
732 112

YES
204 1171

TOTALS
936 1283

OBSERVED
YES

TOTALS

844

1375

2219

:> FIG. 29

OBSERVED OVERALL No
PERCENT AGREE 78.2%

YES
91 .3% 85.8%

Patent Application Publication

Nov. 14, 2013 Sheet 19 0f 21

US 2013/0304680 A1

FIG. 30
1.0
O
0.8

0.6

Pr(yes)
0.4

0.2

0.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

|.avg.oi|

FIG. 31
OBSERVED

OVERALL NO
PERCENT AGREE 77.6%

YES
82.8% 80.6%

FIG. 32
OBSERVED
OVERALL

NO PERCENT AGREE 78.2%

YES 89.8% 84.9%