MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 1

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GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN
ENERGY INVESMENT
CLEAN ENERGY MINISTERIAL
DELHI, 17 APRIL 2013
Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Twitter: @MLiebreich
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 2
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$54bn
$80bn
$114bn
$164bn
$191bn
$187bn
$251bn
$302bn
$269bn
48%
43%
45%
16%
-2%
34%
20% -11%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY
200412 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted
for re-invested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 3
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NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION
200412 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D
7.1
14.2
28.9
40.8
39.0
27.1
41.8
63.1
40.3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
North America & Caribbean
0.8
3.5
5.4
11.1
14.5
10.3
12.9
9.9 10.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Central & South America
18.0
28.5
36.5
58.4
70.7
73.2
97.8
108.0
75.8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Europe
0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5
2.7
1.6
4.9 4.2
11.8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Middle East & Africa
9.5
15.2
22.4
30.6
39.9
47.3
66.8
87.1
100.7
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Asia & Oceania
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 4
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TOP 15 COUNTRIES FOR NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN
ENERGY IN 2012 AND % CHANGE ON 2011 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D
2.95
3.42
4.05
4.31
4.41
5.34
5.46
6.19
6.85
8.34
14.71
16.28
22.80
35.58
65.13
-68%
179%
11%
-34%
-23%
-32%
20563%
40%
-45%
-17%
-51%
75%
-27%
-37%
20%
Spain
Greece
Belgium
France
Canada
Brazil
South Africa
Australia
India
United Kingdom
Italy
Japan
Germany
United States
China
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 5
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8.8 8.7
8.1
10.1
12.0
17.3
13.7
19.0
19.3
21.2
21.0
32.8
27.2
29.7
35.2
50.3
34.6
47.3
41.8
43.1
25.9
46.2
45.4
42.1
48.0
53.5
57.0
65.7
55.8
77.5
73.5
65.5
52.0
62.4
58.7
65.4
40.6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 '13
Four quarter running average
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY
Q1 2004Q1 2013 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D.
Includes small distributed capacity & adjustment for re-invested equity.
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 6
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Note: Values as of 10 April 2013; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2003
NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2003 2013 YTD
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
S&P 500
NASDAQ
NEX
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 7
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CLEAN VS FOSSIL-BASED GENERATING CAPACITY
INVESTMENT, 200612 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
Note: Clean energy total excludes large hydro. Fossil fuel is investment on coal and
gas capacity. We assume capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal and 4%/yr for gas.
Clean
energy
Fossil fuel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 8
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PV EXPERIENCE CURVE, 1976-2012
2012 $/W
Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Prices inflation indexed to US PPI.
MW
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
historic prices (Maycock) experience curve
Chinese c-Si module prices (BNEF) Thin-film experience curve
First Solar thin-film module cost
1976
1985
2003
2006
2012 2012
PV MODULE PRICES HAVE
FALLEN 80% SINCE 2008
20% IN 2012 ALONE
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 9
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DEMAND VERSUS HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED MODULE
PRODUCTION (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Supply scenarios based on continued 2012 utilisation rates.
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Supply - crystalline silicon Supply - thin-film silicon
Supply - thin film non-silicon Demand - conservative
Demand - optimistic
Historical Future
Current cell manufacturing capacity
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 10
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AVERAGE LEVELISED COST OF ONSHORE WIND, 1984-
2012 (/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExTool Note: Learning curve (blue line) is least square regression: R
2
= 0.88 and 14% learning rate.
14%
1984
1990
2000
2004
2012
10
50
100
500
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
MW
WIND TURBINE PRICES
HAVE FALLEN 29% SINCE
2008
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 11
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Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GRID-COMPETITIVE CLEAN ENERGY
=
Natural Gas
at $6/MMBtu
=
New
coal
Best Wind
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 12
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Picture credits: Tod Baker via Creative Commons; NASA, NOAA, CERES
$4.16 NATURAL GAS, USA, 16 APRIL 2013
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 13
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GLOBAL GAS PRICES
($/MMBTU)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Japan LNG Corp, German Federal Office of Economics and Export Control
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
S
e
p

0
7
D
e
c

0
7
M
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r

0
8
J
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n

0
8
S
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p

0
8
D
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c

0
8
M
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r

0
9
J
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n

0
9
S
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p

0
9
D
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c

0
9
M
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r

1
0
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1
0
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p

1
0
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1
0
M
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r

1
1
J
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n

1
1
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p

1
1
D
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1
1
M
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r

1
2
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n

1
2
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p

1
2
D
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c

1
2
M
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r

1
3
Japan LNG (average)
Henry Hub (US)
NBP spot (UK)
German average
import price
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 14
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2.00
3.30
4.54
4.71
4.83
7.10
9.05
10.72
12.20
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Eagle Ford
SW Marcellus
NE Marcellus
Barnett
Haynesville
$8m D&C
$11m D&C
$8m D&C
$11m D&C
W
e
t

U
S
p
l
a
y
s
D
r
y

U
S

p
l
a
y
s
U
K

-
4
,
2
5
0
m
c
f
d
U
K

-
2
,
1
0
0
m
c
f
d
SHALE GAS FRACKING BREAKEVEN PRICE
($/MMBTU)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Various
Note: Assumes 15% equity IRR. UK assumes $8m Drilling & Completion cost; 2000-4250 mcfd
dry production (per Marcellus and Eagle Ford); 20% royalty rate; usual tax treatment
16 April 2013
Henry Hub
$4.16/MMBTU
UK likely shale gas
price range
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 15
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LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE
Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EV BATTERY PRICES
HAVE FALLEN 40% SINCE
2010
Cost-competitiveness
(on total ownership basis)
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 16
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NUMBERS OF SMART METERS WORLDWIDE (MILLIONS)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
107
201
283
374
472
563
630
699
2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e
Rest of world
Japan
China
EU 27
North
America
Forecast Historic
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 17
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CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030
($BN)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
2 to 3x Growth in Clean
Energy Investment for
Peak CO2 Emissions by
2020
Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008,
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Global Futures figures from 2008 restated to reflect current investment
calculation methodology
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, Delhi, 17 April 2013 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 18
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CROSS-BORDER INVESTMENT VOLUMES BY REGIONAL
FLOW, 2004 H1 2012 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: new build asset finance for renewable energy projects only. Investment volumes show cross-border
(or foreign) investments only. Domestic investments are excluded here.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 H1
2012
North/South
South/South
South/North
North/North
10x Growth to meet
$100bn Copenhagen
Commitment
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