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Indian Ocean Rim Association (IOR-ARC): 12th Summit, Gurgaon Communique, Highlights

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. What is IOR-ARC? Gang-Members Why IOA-ARC is important? Gurgaon Communiqu /Declaration (2012) 6- Priority areas What is blue economy? Mock questions

What is IOR-ARC?

Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation Established in 1997

Importance of Indian Ocean rim?


Indian Ocean is vital for the transportation of oil and conduct of other forms of global trade. >97 per cent of Indias international trade by volume passes through Indian Ocean. Indian Ocean rim region = rich precious minerals, metals and other natural resources, marine resources and energy.

20 full time Members 1. Australia 2. Bangladesh 3. India 4. Indonesia 5. Iran 6. Kenya 7. Malaysia 8. Madagascar 9. Mauritius 10. Mozambique 11. Oman 12. Seychelles 13. Singapore 14. South Africa 15. Sri Lanka 16. Tanzania 17. Thailand 18. UAE 19. Yemen. 20. Comoros (latest added in 2012)

6 Dialogue partners

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

China Egypt France Japan UK USA (latest added 2012)

China is not a member, just dialogue partner. Although theyre interested in becoming full time member. Some books mention Ocean Rim got only 19 members=outdated information. Because Comoros was recently added as 20th member.

Objectives

1. Economy

We want cooperation( =coordinate the Stand in WTO, Kyoto etc.) Liberalize trade (=reduce customs duty) Increase flow of goods, services, investment, and technology. Take common positions in the international fora on issues of mutual interest (=Coordinate stand in UN, G20, Kyoto etc.) coordinate Science-Tech research (via specialized universities, institutes of member countries) cultural exchange programs and other boring stuff.

2. Global issues

3. Human resources

Why IOA-ARC is important?

Because it was established in 1997. Therefore, 2012 marks 15th anniversary year. Whenever something/somebodys birth/death anniversary is in multiple of five, it is important for UPSC! Secondly, their 12th summit was held in Gurgaon, India in Nov.2012.

Gurgaon Communiqu /Declaration (2012)


When a summit/conference is over, the official statement is issued that weve agreed to do this, this and this) Such press statement is called Communiqu. In Gurgaon summit, member nations agreed to work on following 6 priority areas

6- Priority areas

Area 1. maritime security piracy


Freedom of navigation in Indian Ocean Safety and security of sea lanes in Indian ocean Share best practices in coastal security Coordination search and rescue operation Hold workshop to share experience on disaster Management of cyclones, monsoon floods etc Oil spills: joint training Working group on trade-investment Will hold a workshop customs (duty) harmonization and trade policy Closer interaction with other regional org. Such as African union Strive for Blue-economy Regulation of fishing activates in coast waters Harvest fish stocks in sustainable manner (=no fishing during breeding season etc.)

2. disaster reduction

3. trade-investment

4. fisheries Management

Combating illegal fishing and damaging fishing techniques. (e.g. Use of very fine nets) Between universities and academies of member-states Cross-fertilization of ideas between the Academic and Business Forums

5. S&T-academic cooperation 6. tourism-cultural exchanges

Lolz

They also agreed that


Well continue economic cooperation @regional level Well aim for sustained growth + balanced Development Weare adding Comoros added as 20th member Weare adding USA as our 6th dialogue partner Well hold next meeting in Australia in 2013.

What is blue economy?


Blue Economy concept emerged at Rio+20 Conference. seeks to integrate ocean-environment-ecology issues into economic frameworks. Sustainable use of marine and coastal resources. Reducing over-fishing. Stop destructive fishing practices. Stop illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. Protect coral reefs. Combat climate change. Combat ocean acidification.

Vocabulary

Littoral= relating to a coastal or shore region e.g. IOR-ARC is an organization of littoral countries in Indian ocean.

Descriptive
1. Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (5 marks) 2. Suggest measures to combat ocean acidification and coral reefs destruction. What are the measures initiated by Government in this regard?(10m) 3. Discuss the 12th summit of Indian Ocean Rim association (12m).

Mali Crisis, Taureg rebels, French Troops, Algeria Hostages: Background, implications explained
1. What is Mali? 2. Players in this crisis? 3. Who are the Tuareg? 4. Gaddafi Angle: 2011 5. Azawad: Jan-April 2012 6. Mali President overthrown: March 2012 7. Entry of French Troops: Jan 2013 8. Back to Northern Mali 9. What is AQIM? 10. Implications of Mali Crisis? 11. Algeria Hostage Crisis 12. Mock Questions

What is Mali?

Landlocked country in West Africa Capital: Bamako. Got independence from France in 1960

Players in this crisis?


Faction Teams 1. Ansar Dine 2. AQIM What do they want? They want to impose Islamic law across Mali Same. They earn ca$h by kidnapping westerners and drug-traffic. Theyre the richest among all rebels. Earlier they wanted to create a separate nation for Tureg people, but now they just want autonomy. doesnt have enough firepower to match rebels. Sent troops because it Malis official army is ill-equipped to fight the rebels.

Islamist Rebels Secular Tuaregs

3. MNLA 4. Mali Government

Government

5. French Government

Who are the Tuareg?

Tuareg areas

Nomadic people who live in Sahara and Sahel regions of Libya, Algeria, Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali. In medieval times, they used to run Camel caravans across Sahara- trading gold, spices, salts and dates. Sometimes called the Blue People because they mostly wear dark blue / indigo colored traditional garments.

What is their problem?


We reside in Northen Mali. While capital city = Bambako = located in South. Government sits there and does nothing for our development. Were light skinned. And all good positions in Government and bureaucracy manned by black people. We are not getting any jobs, education etc. Villages getting displaced due to mining activities, and the subsequent landdegradation =bad for our farms, cattle.

So Tuareg people had been rebelling against the South since a long time.

Gaddafi Angle: 2011


Colonel Gaddafi (of Libya) had been hiring Tuareg tribesmen in his army. 2011=Uprising in Libya, Colonel Gaddafi gets killed. So these Tuareg tribesmen (from Libyan army) formed their own new rebel group called MNLA. They took possession of powerful weapons, surface-to-air missiles etc. from Gaddafis fallen army and decided to come back home. They came back home (Northern Mali) and started fighting against the Mali Government. (+Other Islamic militants were also active in the region so they got help.)

Azawad: Jan-April 2012


From January 2012 onwards, there is heavy fighting between rebels and Mali army, in the Northern areas of Mali. But the army did not have powerful weapons. so They had to flee. Thus MNLA rebels took control of Northern Areas of Mali and declared it a free country called Azawad. (in April 2012) However, this Azawad country has not been recognized by UN or any powerful country (US/China etc.)

Mali President overthrown: March 2012


So far you know that

Tuareg people = unhappy. Some of them served in Libyan army but came back home after death of Gaddafi. (+brought heavy weapons.) These rebels fought against Mali army and threw them out of Northern Mali. So, now Mali army= unhappy. Army blamed President Toure for this fiasco. Why? Because USA was giving truckload of ca$h to President of Mali to fight off the Islamist terror groups. But this President was just using that money for his personal aiyyaashi (=buying sports cars, Rolex watches, diamond studded i-phone1,2,3,4,5, consuming desi liquor and you get the picture.) Thats why Mali army did not have good weapons, tanks, gadgets to fight with the rebels.. One army officer named Captain Sanogo gathered the soldiers and staged a coup against this President and threw him out. (Although later this Captain handed over power to next President Traor.) So right now Mali army is divided into factions one of them supports the old ousted President Toure and wants to bring him back in power.

Entry of French Troops: Jan 2013


While all this mess was going on, the extremists groups from Northern Mali, started capturing the areas in Central Mali region. (such as Timbuktu) New President panicked and called up French President:

please help us. Our army is ill-equipped, divided into factions. Weve neither the weapons nor the morale to fight these rebels. So come help us. I cannot allow a terrorist state to emerge in Mali. Ungoverned spaces in Mali could provide a launch-pad for Jihadist French President Francois attacks in Europe and elsewhere. Hollande But USA, UN or African Union are doing nothing! So Ill send my own French army to fight against these terror New President of Mali

groups. @French President, buddy youre making a grave mistake. AQIM (Extremist group) Now we will retaliate by striking back at the heart of France (Paris). You just wait and watch.

French Offensive in Mali Although some experts believe France is playing big brother only to get its hands on Gold and Oil reserves of Mali. (similar to USA in Iraq)

Back to Northern Mali


You know that MNLA= Tuareg rebels who previously served in Gadhafis army. They had returned back to Northern Mali. But their influence in Northern Mali started declining after they ran out of money (spent in fighting against Mali Army, paying salary to mercenaries and for running propaganda.) Hence, many of MNLA fighters left the gang and joined other Islamist groups. (like Ansar Dine, AQIM etc) Why? Because the Islamists are far richer, earning truckload of cash by kidnapping Westerners for ransom and trafficking cocaine, marijuana and cigarettes. So right now, AQIM (Islamist group) has control of Northern Areas, while MNLAs grip has declined. Given this changed power equation, now the MNLA says, We support the French intervention, all we want is autonomy- we dont want a separate nation for Tuareg

people. We are secular, we are not associated with AQIM or other hardcore Islamist groups.

What is AQIM?

Al-Qaida in the Islamic Mahgreb (AQIM) something like a franchise of Al-Qaida + variety of hardcore groups operating in this region. It offers a typical mix of jihadist activity + criminality (drugs, weapons trades, kidnapping, ransom etc.)

Implications of Mali Crisis?


#1: Afghanistan of Africa

If Bamako (Official capital of Mali) falls in the hands of Rebels then it would be like a repeat of the Talibans rise in Afghanistan in 1996= If the extremists take the capital, its game over. The whole region will become safe-haven for terrorists, drug traffickers, hostage takers (like recall Kandahar episode). This will further destabilize neighboring countries of Niger and Mauritania. Therefore, international community must prevent Mali from turning into the Afghanistan of Africa.

#2: Iran wants to play big brother


Iran holds the chair of NAM (Non-Aligned movement). Iran has offered to play role of negotiator between the Mali Government vs Rebel crisis. Iran wants to use this opportunity to expose double standards of USA on Syria vs. Mali and to increase influence in this region and generate good will (by showing that it doesnt support extremist element.). Irans official statement regarding Mali crisis We are against extremism. But we are also against the (western) interference in the domestic affairs of countries and military intervention.

#3: African Union (AU)


African union= Secretariat in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In late January 2013, African Union held a summit to get a solution for Mali crisis. French wants AU to quickly deploy soldiers. but so far only about 1,000 troops have arrived, and only few of them have taken up front line positions, where actual fighting is going on (between Rebels and French). Chad has promised to send 2,000 soldiers and Burundi has confirmed its readiness to join without giving exact number of soldiers. So this Mali crisis will be an acid test of African Unions ability to tackle regional crisis.

#4: USA

U.S. says, If African Union (AU) sends forces in Mali, well support them with logistics. But we cannot fully engage in Mali until a new government is elected and the political crisis is solved. Experts believe President Obama wants to spend his second (and last) term fixing the domestic issues (economic crisis) so Democratic party can win next Presidential election. Therefore, he is not much interested in pursuing aggressive foreign policy agenda anymore. Besides America has already burned enough cash on Iraq and Afghanistan.

Algeria Hostage Crisis


In early January, 2013, France sent its troops to Mali. Just a few days after that, some Gunmen with al-Qaeda links attacked a gas plant in Algeria. They took the workers as hostages (including foreign nationals.) Weve attacked this plant because of following reasons

Gunmen in Algerian plant

1. We want French troops to leave Mali ASAP. 2. Algerian Government has allowed France to use its airspace while bombarding our gangmembers in Mali.

3. Algerian Government has jailed our esteemed terrorist leaders. They must be freed. Otherwise well shoot down the hostages and blow up this gas plant. This is pure ****** man, youve been planning for this attack since last two months, long before French decided to enter in Mali! Youre just using French angle to get attention of international media. Otherwise Your main objective is to get ransom from foreign Governments and to free your terrorist leaders from our jails. But guess what? Well not agree with your demands.

Algerian Government

Climax of Algerian Hostage Crisis


The stand off between terrorists and Algerian forces continued for 4 days. Algerian Government did not allow foreign special forces (US/UK) to enter or help in this hostage crisis. Finally Algerian Governments decided to attack those terrorists instead of continuing negotiation with them. This led to death of 29 militants and 38 civilians, including six British nationals. (=bad publicity and international criticism.) Later, Algerian Government gave statement, Sorry we made some mistakes in handling this hostage crisis. But when facing terrorists, its not just words that solve the problem. Action has to be taken! By the way, weve found some evidences that Canadian nationals were involved in this act of terrorism.

Interview
1. Has Algeria done the right thing by not negotiating with the terrorists? If youre the PM of India and such crisis hostage-happens, what will you do? 2. Has France done the right thing by sending its troops in Mali?

East Asia Summit, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Nalanda Project, Issues, Challanges India-China-US
1. Who are EAS Members? 2. What are EAS priority areas? 3. What is Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)? 4. Why is RCEP important? 5. Mohans Address to 7th East Asia Summit 6. What is EAS Declaration on ASEAN connectivity? 7. What is Nalanda University Project? 8. What is EAS declaration on Malaria? 9. Concerns/Issues 10. #1 Maritime Disputes Discussion 11. #2: US-Pacific Free Trade (TPP) 12. #3: New Cold War Theater 13. #4: India, the New NAM 14. General Studies (Mains) Mock Question Paper II

Who are EAS Members?


All 10 ASEAN Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, 10 members Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam 6 Regional partners China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. 6 2 Superpowers US, Russia (from 2011 onwards) 2 Total Members of East Asia Summit= 18

Both East Asia Summit EAS (7th) and ASEAN-India (10th) summit were held @ Phnom Penh, Cambodia (Nov-2012).

What are EAS priority areas?


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Energy Economy Education Disaster Management Pandemics+Health (Malaria this year) Connectivity

What is Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)?


An Asia-wide free trade agreement . This agreement will bind the 10 nations of the ASEAN, + 6 regional partners into a massive framework for economic integration. 6 regional partners

10 ASEAN nations 1. Brunei 2. Cambodia 3. Indonesia 4. Laos 5. Malaysia 6. Myanmar 7. Philippines 8. Singapore 9. Thailand 10. Vietnam

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Australia China India South Korea Japan New Zealand

Why is RCEP important?


RCEP would be the largest regional trading arrangement in the world so far. Itll combined market population of more than 3 billion people and a combined GDP of about 20 trillion dollars. A successful RCEP would significantly boost global trade and investment for India as well.

Mohans Address to 7th East Asia Summit


1. Indias security + prosperity = vitally linked to the Asia Pacific region. 2. East Asia Summit can help create a large economic community. 3. We welcome the launch of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations. 4. We want to increase commerce, contact and cooperation (CCC) with the region 5. We must quickly implement the EAS Declaration on ASEAN Connectivity. 6. We support EAS Declaration on Malaria Control 7. cooperation in natural disaster Management. 8. Framework for Earthquake Risk Management in New Delhi. 9. We want your support in Nalanda University project.

What is EAS Declaration on ASEAN connectivity?


It seek cooperation between ASEAN and its EAS partners on physical, institutional and people-to-people connectivity, For education, human resource development, innovation and entrepreneurship, cultural exchanges and tourism.

What is Nalanda University Project?


Nalanda was a renowned Buddhist centre of learning, in Ancient India. It taught students in medicine, mathematics, astronomy and politics. The Modern Day Nalanda Univ. project = brain child of Dr.Kalam. and was endorsed by East Asia Summit members. 2010: Indian parliament passed an Act to rebuild the university. Aim: to attract thousands of the finest teachers and students from around the globe, just as the university did centuries ago. 2012: Nobel laureate economist Amartya Sen was appointed first Chancellor of this univ. first two schools on ecology and environment and historical studies will start in 2014.

What is EAS declaration on Malaria?


Malaria is a wholly preventable and treatable disease. Yet it kills thousands of people in the Asia-Pacific every year. East Asian leaders have agreed to form an alliance with Pacific nations to

1. fight against malaria and 2. Deal with the drug-resistant strains of Malaria.

Concerns/Issues #1 Maritime Disputes Discussion


China insisted that Diaoyu /Senkaku island conflict (click me), along with its other maritime disputes in the region, should not be discussed at the East Asia summit but rather deal with these issues on a bilateral basis (two countries talking to each other). The Asian countries involved in these disputes have expressed an unwillingness to engage in heated debate over disputes during the EAS summit, Because of Chinas powerful geopolitical position + their dependence on trade with China.

#2: US-Pacific Free Trade (TPP)


During the EAS summit, Obama discussed a the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) a type of Free Trade Agreement between USA vs Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore etc. This is a US invasion on Chinas economic turf. If signed, the agreement could pose a great challenge to Chinese products.

#3: New Cold War Theater


China is expanding its military clout (through Strings of Pearl + 5th Generation stealth aircraft, as we saw in earlier article. click ME) On the other hand, to balance Chinese domination, America is strengthening its traditional military alliances in the region and building new partnerships. Thats why, Obama is also making trips to Myanmar and Thailand (in pretext of visiting EAS). USA is also planning to deploy 60 per cent of its armed forces in the Pacific theater. In the coming year, For ASEAN, it will be difficult to keep political unity due to Chinas rising power. The small Asian nations are looking towards the US to balance a rising China. So a new cold war theater is emerging. The fact that they invited the US itself was a recognition that if you are in a cage with an 800-pound gorilla, you should at least invite another one into it to provide a balance. (C Raja Mohan)

#4: India, the New NAM


During the Cold War, India was a leading figure in the Non-Aligned Movement of countries that tried to avoid joining the U.S. or the Soviet Union. IF China unwilling to make reasonable solutions to settling the border dispute, then you can visualize a scenario where India may be non-aligned, but it does more things with the U.S. We want to expand our influence in Asia through so-called Look East Policy. But that opportunity is not without risk. ASEAN countries want to evolve a Code of Conduct for use of resources of South China Sea in the light of Chinese claims. In EAS and ASEAN summit, India will have to address the many questions on where India stands in the rapidly deteriorating regional security environment. And that cannot be done without annoying China. Although, weve already annoyed China.

1. Weve gone nose-to-nose with China over an oil-drilling pact with Vietnam in the disputed South China Sea 2. Weve deployed three Brahmos cruise-missile regiments on border with China following a number of Chinese provocations. 3. Soon, we will recruit 100,000 new soldiers for posting along the same frontier.

Today We are one of the biggest economies and largest militaries in the region.

So, we have the responsibility and opportunity to mitigate great power tensions (USChina) and defuse regional conflicts in Asia. After all, Indias independent foreign policy was always about shaping a sustainable order in Asia and beyond.

General Studies (Mains) Mock Question Paper II


5 markers, 50 words
1. EAS declaration on Malaria 2. EAS declaration on ASEAN connectivity 3. Nalanda Univ. Project

Big questions
1. Discuss Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) 10m 2. Examine the areas of cooperation between India and East Asian nations. 10m 3. India at East Asia Summit: opportunities and Challenges ahead. 25m

Israel, Palestine, Hamas, Gaza-strip, West Bank, PLO: Conflict, Origin, Explained
To understand the Israel-Hamas conflict, we must start from the very beginning- the factors that led to creation of Israel and the current disputes. 1. Geography: Israel, Palestine, Gaza 2. What is imperialism? 3. Why imperialism and colonialism? 4. Rise of Germany 5. First World War and Palestine 6. The Treaty of Versallies (1919) 7. Hyperinflation 8. Rise of Hitler 9. Nazism, Eugenics, Jews 10. Eugenics, Jews 11. Ghettos 12. Holocaust 13. What is Anti-Semitism? 14. What is Zionism? 15. World War II and Zionism 16. Arab Nations 17. End of World War II, 1945 18. UN resolution on Palestine 19. Birth of Israel, 1948 20. West Bank 21. Gaza Strip and Palestinian Refugees 22. Yasser Arafat and PLO, 1964 23. Hamas, 1987 24. Oslo Accords, 1993 25. Palestine Authority (PA) 26. Gaza Blockade, 2007 27. Mavi Marmara incident, 2010 28. Gilad Shalit 29. Summary of the issue

Geography: Israel, Palestine, Gaza


Any discussion on this topic is useless, unless and until you know the map of region like the back of your hand.

Palestine A patch of land between Israel and Jordan. City located within Palestine region, it is the sacred place for Christians, Muslims Jerusalem and Jews.Jerusalem is the Capital of Israel, (although not recognized by some countries). Tel Aviv Second largest city after Jerusalem. Knesset Name of Israels parliament. Mossad Spy agency of Israel. Just like CIA of USA.

What is imperialism?

When a country establishes its economic and political dominance over other nationsit is known as imperialism. There are many ways to achieve imperialism: one of them is colonialism- that is what Britishers did in India and Africa. Colonialism means practice of acquiring colonies by conquest (war) or purchase or any other thuggery and making them dependent on your home country (UK).

After end of Second World War, most of the colonies achieved independence. But nowadays the powerful nations such as US and China, colonize poor countries via providing financial aids, weapons to kill opposing sects/tribes, installing puppet regime etc. this is known as Neo-Colonialism.

Why imperialism and colonialism?


1. For getting free labourers to work cotton gins. (slave trade) 2. To establish monopoly of trade over with given country (e.g. Indias silk and spices) 3. The Industrial Revolution led to factories, mass production but still you needed raw material. Colonies supplied that raw material (cotton, coal, iron ore and other minerals). 4. Colonies also gave new customers for your finished factorymade products. (because local handicraft artisan get destroyed due to heavy taxation, so juntaa has no option other than buying your machine and products.)

Rise of Germany

Between 1800 and 1900, majority of Asia and Africa had been colonized. Britain and France were main players here. Earlier, Germany was made up of small princely states. It was Otto von Bismarck, who unified them and created the modern German empire. Our Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel is often called Bismarck of India for this reason. But the challenges that Sardar Patel faced, were tougher, both in size and complexity than of Bismarcks. Anyways, after the unification, Germany transformed into an economic powerhouse. By 1914, Germanys iron ore, steel production =higher than France + Germany. Germany had entered the shipping trade in a big way. Similarly Italy too was rising. France and Britain didnt like it- not one bit. For them, Germany = A serious economic threat to their status and their colonies. USA had not yet become supercop, superpower of the world. On July 4, 1776, it declared independence from Britain. But the Northern and Southern States of USA, had opposing idea about abolition of black slavery. That led to their internal Civil War from 1861 to 1865. So, USA was busy with its domestic troubles.

First World War and Palestine

The superficial reason for First World War (1914-1918) = Assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, but actually it was this rivalry between nations for economic reasons and control over colonies. The world was divided into two gangs Central Powers (lost) 1. 2. 3. 4. Germany Austria Hungary Ottoman Empire (led to Khilafat

Allied power (won) 1. Britain 2. France 3. USA 4. Russia (October revolution- Lenin in power, Withdrew from war)

5. Italy 6. Japan +some misc. nations

movement in India)

Prior to First World war, the Jerusalem and surrounding Palestine region was under the control of Ottoman Turks. But as you can see from above table, they had sided with Central Powers (Germany) in First World War. During the course of First world war, British army captured Jerusalem and put this Palestine region under military administration. This created resentment among the Native Arabs residing in Palestine. Especially after the Jewish people started immigrating here, due to the oppression by Hitler.

The Treaty of Versailles (1919)


After the war, the Allied nations held a conference in Versailles, near Paris in France. The Allied nations (US,UK,France) forced Germany to sign this treaty else face another military invasion. So Germany had to sign this humuliating treaty under which 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. The coal mines of Germany were transferred to France Germany cannot maintain an army bigger than one lakh troops. Germany cannot build airforce or submarines. Colonies of Germany, were taken over and distributed among the Allied nations. Germany had to pay $65 crore as war-reparation to these Allied Nations. (Compensation for injury).

Hyperinflation

The German economy had already collapsed due to heavy loss of man and material during World War I. The treaty of Versailles only added insult to this injury. During this time, German Government resorted to printing more currency. (Name of German currency=Mark) That led to hyper-inflation (because truck load of paper-cash on one side but not truckload of potatoes on the other side). So paper currency lost its value. Check this photo: A German woman burns currency, because its paper was cheaper fuel than coal!

This is Hyperinflation!

Result of Hyper-inflation
1. A loaf of bread that cost 20,000 marks in the morning would cost 5,000,000 marks by nightfall. 2. Restaurant prices went up while customers were eating. 3. It took 4.2 trillion German marks to buy a single American dollar! 4. A lifetime of savings would no longer buy even a railway ticket! 5. Pensions planned for a lifetime were wiped out completely.

Rise of Hitler

During these hard times, Hitler used to attract German crowds with his charismatic and fierce speeches. He wanted Germany to withdraw from Treaty of Versailles. He identified Jew as the enemy responsible for all of Germanys ills. His argument: Jews own big business, big banks, big department stores, and big labour. And Jews have been profiteering during First World War, during the Treaty of Versailles, during this hyper-inflation. So, theyre leading happy life at our expense. Jews are basically responsible for anything and everything that is bad in Germany. German public and war veterans were already distressed by the hyperinflation and unemployment- So many of them started worshiping Hitler as their savior.

1933, Hitler became Chancellor of Germany. Within a week, He dismissed all Jews from civil services.

Nazism

Now in power, Hitler started economic reconstruction of Germany on one hand and simultaneously the racial purification on the other hand.

His main policies/beliefs were following


1. One party rule: all the opposition leaders killed, jailed or expelled from Germany. 2. Complete ban on Communist activities, Trade unions and Labour strikes. This was done to increase industrial output and make Germany war-ready. 3. He openly defied treaty of Versailles, by increasing troops in the army, construction of submarines, aircrafts etc. 4. He made friendship pacts with unhappy nations from the Allied gang: Italy and Russia. 5. He decided to unify all German-speaking areas of Europe.

Eugenics, Jews

Eugenics means selective breeding of humans. Hitlers opinion: World is divided into Aryan (pure blood/Germans) and Non-Aryans (including Jews, Gypsies and other minorities in Germany). The Non-Aryan are polluting human race with their inferior quality genes and bloodline. So, under Hitlers rule, following laws/policies/rules were created:

1. Forced sterilization (vasectomy) of Jews, people suffering from disability, diseases etc. 2. To increase the birth rate of pure Germans, newly married couples were given loans. And these loans would be forgiven with the birth of each child. 3. Marriage or sexual relations between Jews and Germans were prohibited. 4. Jews given a lower class of citizenship. They were ineligible to apply for most Government jobs, college admissions. 5. Only racial Germans were entitled to civil and political rights. When Indian Parents try to find bride with fair white skin for their son, it is also one (stupid) idea indirectly related to Eugenics. Thats why Skin whitening creams make huge business in India. Eugenics is now making re-entry, indirectly through the research related to designer babies. Anyways back to the topic:

Ghettos

Under Hitlers laws, Jews could reside in only some specific areas, known as as Ghettos. Ghettos were enclosed with walls and gates and kept locked at night.

Outside the ghetto, Jews had to wear a yellow colored identifying badge. More recently, the term ghetto has come to apply to any urban area exclusively settled by a minority group. In the United States, Mexicans and blacks have been compelled to live in ghettos, by economic and social pressures.

Holocaust

In 1942, Hitler decide to get final solution to the Jewish problem. All the Jews were rounded up by Secret Police (Gestapo). The physically fit Jewish men were sent to work in labour camps (to aid German war production during Second World war), While pregnant women, young children, the elderly, handicapped and sick were killed in gas-chambers. Holocaust is the term used to describe this mass murder of 60 lakh Jews under Nazi regime from 1941 until 1945. In many nations of Europe, it is a criminal offense to say that Holocaust did not happen. Some poets, authors, fashion designers and other self-proclaimed intellectuals cum drug addicts have denied holocaust and run into legal trouble. Iranian President Ahmedinijad also denied Holocaust, led to big uproar.

What is Anti-Semitism?

Term used to describe the harassment done to Jewish people. What Hitler did, was one example of Anti-Semitism, but same things were also happening in Russia, Austria as well.

What is Zionism?

What is Zion?=Name of the hill on which the Temple of Jerusalem was located. Zionism is the term used to describe the Jewish political movement of the late 19th century. Their Objective= to unite the Jewish diaspora all over world and settle them in Palestine. They started taking donations from wealthy Jews, helped the Holocaust survivors to migrate to Palestine and surrounding regions. This movement led to establishment of Israel in 1948.

World War II and Zionism


Recall that after First World War, Palestine region was under British Administration. Official policy of British = Prevent Jews from settling in Palestine region because it was leading to riots between Jews and native Arabs. But during the course of World war II, the US army discovered Nazi extermination camps. This created deep sympathy for Jewish people in USA. The Senators and Congressmen of USA, started lobbying for Zionist cause.

Therefore U.S. President Truman requested British Government to immediatly admit 1 lakh Jewish Holocaust survivors into Palestine, and unrestricted Jewish immigration in Palestine in future.

Arab Nations

As the second world war came to an end (1945), the neighboring Arab countries began to take a more direct interest in Palestine. They held a conference in Egypt and made official statement. The gist of their position was

1. Weve sympathies for the European Jews who suffered under Hitlers dictatorship. 2. But the issue of European Jewish survivors ought not to be confused with Zionism. 3. If you (Allied champions:US,UK) allow Jews to settle in Palestine, itll cause great injustice to the Native Arabs and therefore we will oppose it.

End of World War II, 1945


The Jews that survived holocaust and extermination camps, had no home of their own- everything was destroyed in the war. The Zionists helped them immigrate and settle in Palestine. But the Palestinian Arabs decided that no more Jews should arrive and that Palestine should achieve independence as an Arab state. (in 1946 there were 12 lakh Arabs and 7 lakh Jews in Palestine). There was rioting and violence everywhere, from both sides. The area was still under British administration. But during this time, Britain lacked the money, political will and military force to maintain hard control over its colonies. In Feb 1947, Britishers were busy negotiating independence of India. They were also eager to decrease costly military presence in Palestine. So British Government decided to handover the Palestine question to United Nations.

UN resolution on Palestine

In late 1947, The United nations General Assembly passed a resolution: This Palestine region be partitioned into an Arab State and a Jewish state, and Jerusalem will become an International centre. (something like Chandigarh between Punjab and Haryana). Check the map:

Arab nations opposed this resolution. The Zionists welcomed the partition proposal because it recognized a Jewish state and because it allotted more than half of (west-of-Jordan) Palestine to them. Soon after the UN resolution, rioting and civil war broke out in Palestine, between the native Arab and Jews. You can imagine the hardship of people- similar to partition of India-Pakistan.

Birth of Israel, 1948


As the civil war, rioting, murder, loot, plunder, assassinations spread, on 14th May 1948, the Last British high commissioner left Palestine. Immediately, the Zionist leaders declared Israel a free Nation. Within a few hours, USA also recognized Israel as a nation.

In the upcoming days, the Arab nations: Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt sent their armies but were defeated by Israeli forces. (this is known as First Israel-Arab War)

West Bank

Recall that UN General Assembly had favored the partition of Palestine region into an Arab State and a Jewish state. While Jewish State (Israel) came into existence, but there was no Palestine Arab State because Palestinian Arabs were not organized, unlike Zionists, they lacked the money and gun power of their own. They relied on the armies sent by Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt, to fight for their cause. The problem was: What to do with Jerusalem city? After The First Israel-Arab war, the Jerusalem city and surrounding was divided between Israel (West) and Jordan (East). West Bank is the region on the west side of Jordan River. From 1950 to 1967 it was ruled by Jordan. But Israel captured it in 1967s war (also known as 6 Days war, or Third Israel-Arab war).

Gaza Strip and Palestinian Refugees


Again recall that UN General Assembly had favored the partition of Palestine region into an Arab State and a Jewish state. Under that resolution, UN General Assembly had said that Gaza strip will be given to Arab State. (observe the map). After Israel became an independent nation (1948), the Arabs from Tel-Aviv and other parts of Israel/Palestine region, had started migrating to this Gaza strip, to save themselves from riots and looting. These are called Palestinian (Arab) refugees. During the first Israel-Arab war, the Egyptian army had captured Gaza strip. But In 1967s war, Israel re-captured Gaza Strip. But The Egyptian government did not consider Gaza Strip as a part of Egypt and did not allow those refugees to become Egyptian citizens or to migrate to Egypt or to other Arab countries. (their side of border was opened in 2011) On the other side, Israel did not allow these refugees to return to their former homes. So these refugees are stuck from both the sides, live in poverty and food aids from United Nations. Ever since, there is rioting and violent street clashes between Gazas Palestinians (refugees/Hamas) and occupying Israeli troops.

Yasser Arafat and PLO, 1964


So far, the Palestinian Arabs were relying on outside support (Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon), but later realized they had to get themselves organized to fight for their own cause. Thus came Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Soon, Yasser Arafat became the leader of PLO. PLO launched guerrilla war against Israel during the 1960s to 1980s from its camps in Jordan. But later on PLO got into power-struggle with Jordanian King, and were expelled from there. So PLO shifted their base to Lebanon. 1982, Israel launched military attack on Lebanon to destroy the PLO camps. Ultimately Yasser Arafat concluded that military fight with Israel = useless and futile. So, He decided to accept the earlier UN resolution (recall: UN wanted Palestine region to be divided between a Jewish State and an Arab State). He proposed, Our PLO is the Government-in-exile. Were representing that Arab State envisioned under UN resolution. We recognize Israel as the Jewish state, we accept their right to exist. Now give us our land, Gaza Strip and West Bank.

Hamas, 1987

Theyre political-militant organization stationed in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. They run their own schools, charities, clinics, and schools in these areas. They get money and weapons from tunnels through Egypt-Gaza border.

They want to destroy Israel and the create an Islamic state in Palestine. The Difference between Hamas and PLO = both started as militant movements for Palestinian Arabs But PLO has (almost) ceased violence while Hamas continues to remain armed and dangerous.

Oslo Accords, 1993

After many rounds of talks, Israeli Government and Yasser Arafats PLO entered into peace agreement, according to which 1. Israel and PLO will formally recognize eachothers right to exist. 2. A new Palestine authority (PA) will be formed, itll have elected Arab representatives. 3. Israel will gradually handover the administration of Gaza strip and West Bank, to this Palestine Authority (PA). But Hamas was opposed to Oslo accords.

Palestine Authority (PA)


It was formed under the Oslo Accord. Elections were held, Yasser Arafats Fatah party won majority seats and he became the first President of Palestine Authority (PA). Israel withdrew its military from Gaza strip, and handed over the civil functions (police, municipality etc) to this Palestine Authority. (1994) Yasser Arafat died. (2004) Yasser Arafats Fatah Party was defeated by the Hamas Party, in 2006s election for Palestine Authority, Hamas and Fatah eventually formed a coalition government, but there was violence and power struggle between these two camps. Ultimately, Hamas got control of the Gaza Strip, while Fatah took control of the West Bank.

Gaza Blockade, 2007

In 2007, Gaza strip was under Hamas rule. The acts of terrorism continued. Israel declared them as a hostile entity and approved sanctions against Gaza stripincluding electricity cuts, heavily restricted imports, and border closures. Hamas retaliated by launching rockets at Israeli cities. So, Israel started military invasion on the Gaza, mainly to destroy those tunnels through which Hamas gets rockets and other weapons. In this clash, more than 1,000 were killed. Finally Israel and Hamas declared a unilateral cease-fire. Since then Gaza strip is in control of Hamas but Israel has blocked the whole area with huge wall.

Mavi Marmara incident, 2010


Some NGOs, Peace workers wanted to deliver food, other humanitarian aid and construction materials to Gaza refugees. They came by sea using a ship named Mavi Marmara, wanted to land on Gaza strip But were intercepted by Israeli military. Each side accused other one for starting trouble. Led to much uproar about human rights violation. This was asked in UPSCs General Studies (Mains) 2010 paper.

Gilad Shalit

Israeli soldier, abducted by Hamas during a raid in 2006. They kept him as a hostage for five years and returned him to Israel for the release of 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, in 2011.

Summary of the issue


1. Originally, Palestine was under control of Ottoman empire, but British captured it during first world war. 2. In the inter-war years, facing the Antisemitism in Germany and Russia, the Jews started Zionist movement to create a separation nation for them in Palestine. But the native Palestinian Arabs opposed it. 3. After second world war, British Government referred the matter to United Nations. 4. United Nations, passed a resolution that Palestine will be divided into a Jewish State and an Arab State. And Gaza strip will be given to the Arab State. 5. When Britisher left the area, Jews declared their own nation Israel, but Arabs of Palestine couldnt declare their own nation. 6. The neighboring Arab nations (Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon) sent their armies, leading to Israel-Arab wars. In the end, Israel won and captured Gaza Strip and West Bank. 7. Two resistance movement started against Israel: (1) Yasser Arafat (PLO) (2) Hamas. 8. PLO entered into peace with Israel under Oslo Accords, while Hamas continued the path of terrorism and suicide bombers. 9. A Palestine Authority (PA) was created and Israel handed over the civilian administration of Gaza and West bank to this PA. 10. Initially Yasser Arafats Fatah party used to win elections to Palestine Authority (PA) and all was going good. 11. But Hamas party won 2007s election. So, Israel started blockade of Gaza strip. Both went into military conflicts with sporadic ceasefires and fighting every now and then. 12. The current Israel-Hamas conflict being one of them. Hamas wants Israel to lift Economic blockade of Gaza and Israel wants Hamas to stop its militant movement and arms-smuggling through tunnels. 13. Indias position (yes you guessed it right): both sides should exercise restrain and settle the matter via peaceful talks and negotiations.

Japan Sagar/ East Sea Controversy, and functions of Survey of India


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. What is Surveyor General of India? Functions of Surveyor General of India? What is Sea of Japan/East Sea? Why Japan Sagar controversy? Arguments: Japan vs S.Korea Indias Stand on Sea of Japan Food for thought Mock Questions

What is Surveyor General of India?


Survey of India =Indias official map-making agency. under the Department of Science & Technology HQ= Dehra Dun Officers are appointed through Indian Engineering Services Examination conducted by UPSC. Their main boss = Surveyor General of India.

Functions
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Acts as adviser to the Government of India on all survey matters. Produces Geographical maps and Aeronautical Charts. Demarcates the External Boundaries of India. Advice on the demarcation of inter-state boundaries. Predicts tides at various ports. Publishes Tide Table one year in advance to support navigational activities. Certifies maps published by private publishers. Surveys for Developmental Projects. Research and Development in Digital Mapping.

What is Sea of Japan/East Sea?


A marginal sea of the western Pacific Ocean It is bordered by Japan, North Korea, Russia and South Korea.

Japan Sagar controversy?


Survey of India, has omitted naming this sea/water body in its English version, though the Hindi one calls the area Japan Sagar on its maps. Japan has protested against this. In case you wonder, what is there in a name, well recall the earlier article Liancourt Rocks/ Takeshima/ Dokdo Islets Dispute Between Japan and South Korea (Click Me) Sea of Japan has valuable fishing grounds. The seabed of the area contains vast, untapped reserves of gas hydrates. So it is not just about a name but about the money involved as well.

Arguments: Japan vs S.Korea Japan


S.Korea
term Sea of Japan came to be used while Korea was under Japanese rule (around WW2), otherwise originally, this water body was called Sea of Korea or East Sea.

United Nations recognised The term used by UN Secretariat to refer to a place, does not in Sea of Japan as the any way constitute an official position or policy. standard geographical term

in March 2004. But the governments of the Ya but governments of these countries have officially stated that US, the UK, France, naming the sea area between the Korea and Japan should be Germany and China also use settled by agreement among the countries concerned. the name Sea of Japan! The International Hydrographic Organisation (IHO) Resolution provides that if two or more countries share a given geographical feature for which they cannot agree on a common name, each of the names should be used to refer to that geographical feature. So if you want to use the term Sea of Japan, you must simultaneously call it East Sea.

Indias Stand on Sea of Japan


Ministry of External Affairs clarified on the issue, As far as India is concerned, there is no change in our policy. Name of that water body is Sea of Japan. But at the same time, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) is unlikely to pursue the matter with the Survey of India. (however Japanese Embassy would take up the issue to Surveyor General).

Food for thought


India can hardly claim that Japan is over-reacting when it is so quick to take umbrage over cartographical errors, deliberate and otherwise, related to its territories. (Maps showing Azad Kashmir or Arunanchal Pradesh shown in China). It is not uncommon for countries to fight their battles over disputed territories by proxy, through maps. But sometimes maps can solve as many problems as they create. Recall the earlier article on Senkaku/Diaoyu islands (China vs Japan) click ME At the height of that dispute between China and Japan over islands in the East China Sea, Apples new mapping software presented a novel solution: duplication. It simply showed two sets of the islands appearing next to each other one for Japan and one for China!

Mains
1. Survey of India (5 marks) 2. International Hydrographic Organisation (IHO) (5 marks) 3. Discuss Indo-Japan relations, in the light of DMIC, NPT and Sea of Japan. (25 marks)

Essay
1. Wars of nations are fought to change maps. But wars of poverty are fought to map change. 2. Maps can solve as many problems as they create.

Liancourt Rocks/ Takeshima/ Dokdo Islets Dispute Between Japan and South Korea
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Whare are The Takeshima or Dokdo Islets? Background History Reasons for the dispute American angle How to solve this problem

Whare are The Takeshima or Dokdo Islets?


o o o

These islets are located in the Sea of Japan and are a bone of contention between Japan and South Korea. They are 210 kilometers across the water from Japan and South Korea and are only 19 hectares in area. These islets are called the Liancourt Rocks in the West, Takeshima in in Japan and Dokdo in South Korea .

Background History

Japanese occupied Korea during Second World War and withdrew from Korea after its defeat, which led to the signing of the 1951 treaty with the Allied Powers, under which Japan relinquished most of the Korean territory. But Japan argues that under the 1951 peace treaty, the Takeshima or Dokdo islets were exempt from the deal. However South Korea does not accept the Japanese contention; it treats the islets as a part of its territory. This is the reason why the South Korean government in 1952, took control of the islets. Thus Dokdo is currently under South Korean control, which is termed illegal by the Japanese government.

In August 2012 Lee Myung Bak became the First S.Korean President to visit these disputed islets. This escalated the tension between two countries. The South Korean government also wants to build a naval base on the Ulleung Islands, near the Dokdo islets, in order to fortify the area around Dokdo. There is also a dispute regarding the naming of the sea surrounding these islets. South Korea refers to the sea as the East Sea, whereas Japan refers it as the Sea of Japan.

Reasons for the dispute

1. The islands are located in the Sea of Japan, which has valuable fishing grounds. 2. The seabed of the area contains vast, untapped reserves of gas hydrates. 3. South Korea views these islets symbols of a lingering colonial vendetta with Japan which occupied Korea for a long time. 4. Thus the bitter memories of a Japanese occupation and a newfound economic prosperity and technological prowess have combined to give birth to this aggressiveness amongst the South Koreans. 5. Moreover Lee Myung Bak will step down as President in December, before leaving office, he wants to rake up the nationalist sentiments in order to improve the chances of his partys presidential candidate.

American angle

Both the countries matter a lot to the United States. Their enmity can adversely affect Americas standing in the East Asia. Japan and South Korea are Americas most important strategic allies in Asia. Cooperation between Japan and South Korea and in turn with the U.S. is essential in keeping North Korea in check.

How to solve this problem


Both should file a case of arbitration by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Hague. Japan is ready to go to the ICJ but South Korea has refused. The South Koreans feel, the islets are theirs and approaching the ICJ for arbitration will only contradict the claim made by them. For the South Koreans Dokdo is an emblem of their independence from Japanese colonial rule therefore the South Koreans are emotional about these islets. However the Korean government will have to control the emotional outbursts of its politicians and citizens in order to assuage tensions between both the nations.

Russia-Pakistan: Growing Ties:


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Why India is unhappy with Russia? Why Russia is unhappy with India? Why Pakistan is eager to be friend of Russia? Why Pakistan is important for Russia? Why Pakistan is important for World Powers? Why Indias fear is misplaced? What should India do?

Why India is unhappy with Russia?


Recently India-Russia defence minister-level talks were scheduled @Delhi. But the meeting was postponed after Russian Defence Minister didnot come. At the same time, Pakistani Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani visited Moscow, thus causing Indian Government to conclude that Russian Defence Minister had stayed back to meet Gen.Kiyani and discuss weapon-deals with him. Apart from this, another bitter issue in Indo-Russian relationship = the Gorshkov aircraft carrier. Because Russia has failed to deliver it on time and demanding more money for repairing and upgrading it.

Why Russia is unhappy with India?


Earlier, Russia used to be the sole military hardware supplier for Indian Government. But nowadays, Russia faces competition in Indias arms bazaar from the US, Europe and Israel. Recently India was going to buy ammunition for Russian made ZU-23mm Antiaircraft guns from a Bulgarian Company. But Russia had sent a message to India that Bulgaria doesnt have the permission from Russia, to export such ammunition to third country. Hence this move (of Russian Defense minister skipping the meeting in India), is seen as a message from Russia to India that As a customer, if youve the right to choose, then we can also explore our options as a seller (i.e. we can sell arms to Pakistan!)

Why Pakistan is eager to be friend of Russia?


Pakistan wants Russian cooperation to upgrade its military hardware, including Mi-17 helicopters and T-80UD tanks. Pakistan also wants to exchange military-to-military exchanges with Russia

Why Pakistan is important for Russia?


For decades now, Russias South Asia policy had focused on cultivating a special relationship with India and keeping Pakistan at arms length. But nowadays, Russias main concern is narcotics smuggling through Afghanistan, growing religious extremism and Chinas growing influence among Central Asian Nations, including Afghanistan. [Recall that Central Asia has huge reserves of minerals, therefore India is also interested in Central Asia- through Connect Central Asia Policy (Click ME).] Many in Russian Government believe that Pakistani Army provides the best lever to effectively influence Afghanistans Government. Russia wants Pakistan to award the work of building its section of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline to Russian energy company Gazprom. [Although Gazprom had wanted Pakistani Government to award this contract without bidding, but Pakistan is reluctant to do so. Therefore there is some bitterness in relationship.] US plans to end its combat role in in Afghanistan after 2014. And As America retreats from Afghanistan, China seeks to expand its influence in Kabul, and hence Russia wants to protect its interests. Therefore Russia needs Pakistani armys cooperation.

Why Pakistan is important for World Powers?


Pakistan has always had great strategic value for major powers (US, China, Russia) because of its geopolitical location at the crossroads of Central Asia and the Gulf, This is especially true when it comes to Afghanistan. Pakistan remains the principal external determinant of Afghanistans future, because of its long and open border with Afghanistan- whether it is economic interests (Chinese/Russia) or military invasion (USs war on terrorism). Therefore, any major power with interests in Afghanistan must necessarily engage Pakistan.

Why Indias fear is misplaced?


Some Indian Foreign policy experts believe that Russia has found a new ally Pakistan. But this does not necessarily mean Russia would want to give up its special relationship with India. Russias softness towards Pakistan has just begun and it is unlikely to acquire any alarming dimension in the near future. And regarding the fears of Russia selling weapons to Pakistanwell, Russia is not unaware that Indias arms market is much bigger and Pakistan does not have the financial resources (lolz) to become an attractive customer like India.

What should India do?

Russia is still a dependable ally and the range of its assistance from sharing knowledge for the indigenous Arihant nuclear missile submarine project, the leasing of the Chakra nuclear attack submarine and first rights on the new fifth generation fighter aircraft cannot be ignored. When circumstances change and interests are redefined, great powers have no hesitation in recasting their foreign policies. There is no room here for sentimentalism. So, Rather than protesting Russias or any other great nations engagement with Pakistan, We must focus on strengthening our own ability to influence the developments in Afghanistan.

Indo-China Power equation, factors and the future ahead


1. Similarities: India & China 2. Factor against India 1. Chinas GDP is higher 2. Proxy aggression 3. Pakistani Angle 4. Control over Border Regions 5. Cyber domain. 3. Factors against China 1. #1: Enemy of Enemy is our friend 2. #2: Chinas vulnerability in Indian Ocean 3. #3: Indias Soft Power 4. #4: Military technology 5. #5: Indias economic position vs Chinese Saturation 4. #6: Demographic dividend 5. China as Worlds Superpower 6. What should India do to counter China?

Similarities: India & China


In the 1950s, India and China were weak developing countries. Today, China is the worlds second-largest economy and India is in the top ten. Both have nuclear weapons + huge military.

But there are many factors, which put these two nations on unequal grounds:

Factor against India


Chinas GDP is higher

In 1970, India had a higher GDP than China, But Today, Chinas GDP is four times that of Indias, and the ratio is still increasing.

By almost any measure, China is more developed than India. Because In addition to its GDP, only a small percent of Chinas people live in poverty, China has made a far greater effort to educate its citizens than India. The access to electricity and the Internet are all higher in China. Statistical projections suggest that Chinas GDP, could equal that of the US by 2030. While India just tried to be ahead of Pakistan in term of Defense technology, China has sought to counter the United States military power. Thats why China has made greater investments in military power, both conventional (Tanks and missiles) and unconventional (cyber attacks). US is facing economic downturn and unemployment. Therefore Obama administration has reduced the defense expenditure. Right now, China has unquestioned military superiority over India and if situation continues to be bad in USAs economy then Chinese military will become even more advanced and high tech than USAs. Apart from these things, China is a permanent member of UN security council (UNSC) and thus enjoys the veto power. China has a major voice in the international system, especially in economic and financial matters- compared to India All of these make China a formidable antagonist for India, if the status quo is maintained.

Proxy aggression

China tilts towards Pakistan in its dispute with India over Kashmir. China has supported the rebel movements in Indias Northeast and red corridor. China is assertive (and at times aggressive) about its claim on the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. Chinese military deployments across the disputed border are much, much greater than Indias.

Pakistani Angle

Pakistan is Indias permanent security headache. Pakistan has long received Chinese support, ensuring that Indias attention is diverted away from China. Pakistan is providing China with a friendly route to the Energy rich Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf.

Control over Border Regions


China has an ambitious forward policy towards controlling Tibet and Xinjiang. While India prefers to maintain status quo for issues on Kashmir and North East. China has done an impressive job promoting economic integration and infrastructure both in Tibet and Xinjiang India has failed to bring economic prosperity, internal security and reasonable governance in Kashmir and North East. In fact Delhi is struggling to provide, 50 years later, basic road connectivity to its frontier regions.

Cyber Warfare

In Information and Technology, India has a globally competitive industry and a deep pool of talent. But it has not been used for notorious purposes like China does :hacking gmail accounts of Dalai Lama and foreign ambassadors, hacking and deleting websites of Tibetian activists etc. Cyber warfare, communication blockade, internet censorship (in an event of war), Chinese capacity are better than ours.

Factors against China


#1: Enemy of Enemy is our friend

Chinese relations with the US have entered a difficult phase. China is engaged in maritime territorial disputes with Japan [Recall the earlier article on Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, CLICK ME] Chinas maritime claims in the South China Sea have caused deep resentment in Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei and so on. And with all these countries, we have good bilateral relations. Therefore, the present international power play is arguably to Indias advantage.

#2: Chinas vulnerability in Indian Ocean

Chinas goods and oil cargos pass through Indian Ocean, over which over Navy has formidable presence. (Observe Strait of Malacca in above map). Therefore, unless China is 100% sure of a full military and psychological victory over India, it would have no use for a military attack. And hence the possibilities of a Chinese offensive in the high Himalayas are considered remote. Besides, the increased Indo-China trade and economic relations are a deterrent to belligerence (Aggressiveness) because those who trade heavily do not usually trade blows.

#3: Indias Soft Power


India has a history of largely positive relations with Himalayan neighbours, the central Asian states and Russia (the two notable exceptions of China and Pakistan). China, by contrast, has a history of border disputes and outright war with many of its continental neighbours, from Russia to Vietnam.

The growth nationalism in Japan, Korea, and Vietnam. Theyre becoming more assertive when dealing with China. Therefore, Chinas access to the Pacific and Indian Oceans, is blocked by a network of democracies from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to the Philippines, Indonesia, and Singapore. Indias rise, by contrast, is not perceived as a threat by other east and southeast Asian states.

#4: Military technology


India has no offensive capacity (or doctrine) while China has ample ability to go on the offensive as it showed in 1962. But the Chinese also know that Indias defensive capacity along the border is more than adequate. Precision strike weapons (guided missiles etc) cost US $500,000 a round in 1990. They cost $10,000 or less today. It means the price of precision strike weapons has been coming down, and their reliability, range and damage-power has been increasing. During war, Use of such Precision strike weapons favor countries with defensive strategies (India).

#5: Indias economic position

Economic growth is easier when you are catching up to richer countries. Because there is a world of foreign technology and business practices for you to acquire and use to increase your productivity rapidly. But After a few decades of catching up, you have taken advantage of most foreign know-how. At that point, economic growth would require you to invent your own technology. This means slower growth in productivity China is perhaps 25 years ahead of India in its economic development, which means that it is 25 years closer to hitting these limits. So Indias potential rate of growth going forward is higher. When we combine this with demography, it is possible for Indias GDP to overtake China in the future.

#6: Demographic dividend


Within a few decades, the Chinese labour force will shrink (because of their one child policy) and thus Chinas internal consumer demand = reduced.. supply of young Chinese people in rural areas who can move into manufacturing jobs = reduced Thus Chinas GDP will start declining. But India faces no such demographic crunches. If we pour more money in vocational skill training, then well have a young, productive and growing labour force = higher GDP in future.

Food for thought


It is said that in the coming years, China will replace US as the world super power. However last major power transition from Britain to the US (After World War II) helped India achieve independence. So lets consider for a moment, what will happen to India, If and when there is power transition from US to China

China as Worlds Superpower


After the death of the Dalai Lama, China could pressure for India to shut down all Tibetan political activity in India and to force the Tibetan government-in-exile into further exile outside India. Tibetan refugees in India would be asked to take Indian citizenship or to leave India. Unlike the 1962 war, a future military clash may not be restricted to land warfare at the border instead, we may see a more dispersed set of strikes with precision weapons that disable Indian capabilities as well as cyber attacks. China would also be likely to bring to bear financial pressure on India, using economic warfare levers via high levels of investment and trade. China could armtwist/buy the Politically and Financially weak regimes surrounding India (Bhutan, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal) and build permanent military bases there. Just like US did in Middle East and Central Asia. Similarly, China could soon enjoy a permanent and relatively inexpensive naval presence in the Indian Ocean via naval bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Maldives etc. And then, China might end up controlling Tawang, which Chinese officials currently refer to as part of south Tibet (along with the rest of Arunachal Pradesh) If in future, another 26/11 terror attack happens in india, and India decides to launch military strike against Pakistan, then China would be in a position to pressure India into an unfavourable settlement or ceasefire. China would then silence Indian free speech on internet and in international platforms (UN etc), via combination of diplomatic and economic pressure, and Chinese cyber Attacks. Ultimately, it might result in a kind of Finlandisation of India, according to which Indian leaders would make regular pilgrimages (visits) to China to co-ordinate and seek approval of Chinese leaders, on all major international questions even at the cost of Indian national interests.

Well then Good grief, China is not the world power! But then the question is:

What should India do to counter China?

When we invest money in military or medical research or child education, itd determine what capabilities we will have 20 years hence. But unfortunately the current political environment: policies are oriented more towards short term electoral benefits.

The foremost task for India is to maximise its potential national power by maximising its economic growth & demographic dividend, reducing poverty, enhancing social peace and securing international peace. Adopt an anti-access, area denial strategy in Tibet, where China is dependent on a limited number of roads, rail lines and runways. India should cooperate more actively with other Asian countries to make it harder for Chinese naval power to operate in the Indian Ocean. India must fix its cyber vulnerabilities, Government websites and communication system this is a problem more in need of attention than large sums of money (by the standards of military spending). Compared with Indias, Chinese military hardware costs are lower because they typically involve domestic production. Therefore, India should increase the spending on Research and Development for Domestic production of military hardwares. Chinese military strategic doctrine emphasises speed and surprise and thus Indian counter doctrine should emphasise paranoia and flexibility. Tactically speaking a mountainous border is good terrain to Indian army to defend, but it still leaves room for strategic surprises for instance, a Chinese attack through Bhutan. Ideally, Indias military should constantly think through such novel scenarios and fine tune the deployment accordingly.

Conclusion

We must of course engage, economically and culturally with China to better our relationships. But Chinas geopolitical interests are fundamentally adversarial to Indias. China is a nation with definite views on the international order and border Issues, which will prevent it from becoming Indias most trusted ally. The gap between Chinese and Indian power is much less than previous decades, but there is no room for complacency. Moreover, the costs of adopting preventive measures are much lower than the costs of inviting Chinese aggression by failing to compete. Therefore, it would be irresponsible for India not to take steps to ensure that China thinks twice before challenging the status quo in relationship.

Update: Contribution from Mr. Vijay Ravi Srikanth


Bitterness in Indo-China relations because
1. Recent evidence to understand Chinas aggression :denial of visas to kashmiris and residents of Arunachal stating that they are integral parts of china(given special type of visas). 2. South china sea dispute(recently warned against India- Vietnams oil exploration pact). 3. China Voiced against our Presidents visit to Arunachal.

4. Rapidly developing infrastructure and Highways at Borders and new deployments(photographic evidence from NASAs satellites). 5. increasing ties with Pakistan(Chashma nuclear reactors, Paksat launching, string of pearls policy) f.Indias ship has been taken into its custody and released soon after some questionnaire saying that We had violated the international maritime laws in south China sea(India denied ) f.constructing dam with no prior consultation with India on Brahmaputra in Tibet(Zangmu project). 6. g.negotiations started with Bhutan and Nepal regarding strengthening of ties and military bases.

China is facing internal problems


1. no democracy, nearly a million protests in previous year, strict laws of inheritencegrowing dissatisfaction, resurgent movements and separatist movements(Uyghurs, Xinziang, Shanghai, Taiwan). 2. a million protests is not a simple issue as any protest is nothing but a simple and visible tip of ice berg- i mean a great amount of dissatisfaction among people.no country can concentrate on external issues without improving internal problems. 3. recent India China developments- joint consultative mechanism, SHADE(shared Deconfliction- first military development of its kind between India and China) 4. Indias recent developments in military issues Dassault Raffale deal, INS sahyadri, Shiwalik, Satpura, Agni 5, Arihant(nuclear),INS Vikramaditya , Ins vikrant(under construction) and pacts like GLONASS, process initiated to launch one more new naval base at Kolkata(preparedness towards Chinas string of pearls policy. regular military exercises-with France and Germany, exercise in Rajastan.many others malabar exercises(all these happened in recent past- a year) 5. chinas one child policy may show a negative impact on its future but it is only up to 2 to 3 decades. After that it would be more advantageous to it. 6. our missiles and nuclear power may deter war but once the war is broken out, out of unforeseen accidents it causes huge losses to us. 7. Today India- China trade value is nearly $70 billion. so huge. and so it is a crucial time to diversify our markets to avoid dependence on China by strengthening our economy.(otherwise it can create inflation in our country during war times because of huge mismatch in bilateral trade balance) 8. It is time to strengthen our systems to cope up the situation. we have to focus on long term issues also(education, research, diplomacy, new markets and trade.)

National Security: Naresh Chandra Task Force recommendations


1. Why this Task Force? 2. Recommendations of Naresh Chandra Task Force on National security 3. On Enemies of India 1. On China 2. On Pakistan 3. On Naxalites 4. Make More Institutions 1. Advanced Projects Agency (APA) 2. Bureau of politico-military affairs 3. Defense university and Think Tank 4. FDI in defense 5. Get more Staff [Personnel] 1. Overall 2. Diplomates 3. Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee (CoSC) 4. Special Forces

Why this Task Force?


It was setup by Mohan in 2011, and gave the report in 2012 (somewhere in August) to review the current the national security system to suggest measures to strengthen the national security apparatus. Naresh Chandra is a retired IAS and rest of the team has diplomats, defense experts, RAW, IB, army, navy officers etc.

Naresh Chandra

Recommendations of Naresh Chandra Task Force on National security


[not exhaustive]

On the Enemies of India On China


China will become militarily more assertive and nationalistic as its economic and military power grows. China will continue to utilize Pakistan as part of its grand strategy for containing India in a South Asian box. United states will become more circumspect and accommodating in dealing with China. Therefore India should shift focus of national security strategy from Pakistan to China. Army be given management of Sino-Indian borders and India should become more assertive in dealing with China.

On Pakistan

Pakistani military hasnot given up the use of radical Islamic groups to promote terrorism in both India and Afghanistan biggest concern is Pakistans ambition to use Afghanistan for strategic depth. India should spare no effort, politically, diplomatically, economically and through military assistance to ensure that Pakistani efforts to convert Afghanistan into an extremist run, pliant and client state are frustrated.

On Naxalites
Secret Talks

government give up its pre-condition of cessation of violence for opening talks with Naxalites. Instead, Government should try to secretly reach the pro-talks elements within the top Naxal leadership and tell them that the government will not be cowed down by their acts of violence and that dialogue is the best option to redress their grievances. Even if the peace efforts do not lead to solution, itll lead to confusion and division within the pro-talk and anti-talk elements in Naxal leadership. Even during the talks and negotiations, the Area domination will have to continue and forces must keep track of the Maoist elements who come overground for the talks. [because in 2004 a short-lived ceasefire-cum-talks between the Andhra Pradesh establishment and CPI (Maoist) was conveniently used by the naxalites to regroup and rearm themselves.]

More army presence in Naxal areas


Army should not involve in direct combat with naxals but army should establish more training institutes in Naxal areas. And then, from those traninig institutes, army should reach out to the tribals residing in surrounding villages by offering them facilities like schools, medical care and potable drinking water. This may help in eroding the support base of the Naxalites. Army training schools proposed in Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Maharashtra will help train the central paramilitary forces engaged in counter-Naxal duties in jungle warfare.

Make More Institutions Advanced Projects Agency (APA)


to undertake high-risk futuristic military research. The head of APA will act as Scientific Advisor to Defense Minister. [scientific advisor to the Raksha Mantri (SA to RM).]

APA will be assisted by o UGC (University Grants Commission) o CSIR (Council of Scientific and Industrial Research) o BARC ( Bhabha Atomic Research Centre o TIFR (Tata Institute of Fundamental Research) o Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore. APA would fund research in institutions like IITs, universities and private laboratories. APA will not be involved with DRDO DRDO must assume responsibility for managing the DRDOs laboratories and research centres and ensuring the on-time delivery of projects undertaken there.

Bureau of politico-military affairs


Defence ministry should set up a bureau of politico-military affairs this Bureau would be liaison with the ministry of external affairs (MEA) on issues and actions having foreign policy applications ministry of external affairs (MEA) should not work in isolation from other ministries, particularly with respect to securing access to strategic materials, hydrocarbons etc.

Defense university and Think Tank


establish a National defense University (NDU) create a separate think-tank on internal security. A sub-group on defense technology, comprising representatives of DRDO, military, private sector, academia, military and other stakeholders.

FDI in defense

Right now only 26% Need to increase it to 49% So that we can manufacture items in India, using the latest technologies already developed by foreign entities.

Get more Staff [Personnel] Overall


Amend the Prevention of Corruption Act to reassure honest officers that theyll not be harassed for making defence equipment purchases. Induct more foreign language experts into the intelligence and security agencies. Allow more cross-postings between Service HQ (Army, Navy, Airforce) and Ministry of Defence

Diplomats

The ministry of external affairs (MEA) doesnt have enough diplomats to anticipate, analyze and act on contemporary challenges quality of new recruits (through UPSC) is often uneven o (for example UPSC topper Alok Ranjan Jha became IFS but allegedly got drunk and misbehaved with Air India staff in New York and thus he was recalled. Some other IFS officers showing their mardaangi by beating up wives and maids and appearing in newspaper headlines every now and then.) o several recruits refuse to join the MEA. o It requires huge time and effort to train new IFS officers and making them proficient in English and other foreign languages. [IFS training takes around 3 years, while IAS/IPS training done in about 2 years] Therefore, Ministry of External Affairs should accept officials from civil services and armed forces on short duration (five years) deputations rather than solely relying on UPSC. Indian embassies and missions, which are required to play a key role in issues such as acquisition of raw materials, hydrocarbons, should be staffed with consultants with the requisite technical and technological background.

Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee (CoSC)


Need COSC to keep an eye on China and Pak

He will have a fixed tenure of two years and will be rotated among the three services (Army, Navy, Airforce). Hell be in charge of making net assessment about the strengths and weaknesses of Indias adversariesChina and Pakistanin a holistic manner Currently, the three services make their individual assessments [about China and Pak], which remains buried in files that never see the light of the day.

Special Forces

a separate command structure under the chairman chiefs of staff committee. These special force will be dealing with foreign backed proxy wars and combat search and rescue operation or handling hostage crisis. [something like US NAVY SEALS that killed Bin Laden.]

Andean Community and India


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Write a brief note on Andean Community Nations in Andean Community Functions of Andean Community FTA with Mercosur Andean Passport Institutional bodies within the Andean community India and Andean Community

Write a brief note on Andean Community


Birth Other name HQ 1969 by the Cartagena Agreement, Comunidad Andina (CAN) Lima, Peru

Aim

encourage industrial, agricultural, social, and trade cooperation among members promoting the independence and strength of the regional economy

Nations in Andean Community


Members 1. 2. 3. 4. Bolivia Colombia Ecuador Peru. Associated Nations 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Chile Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay Uruguay Observers

1. Panama 2. Mexico

Functions of Andean Community


Andean Community coordinates the commercial, industrial, and financial policies of member nations. 1996 they decided to make their trading bloc to more closely resemble the European Union (EU), which included o secretariat possessing executive powers to resolve disputes, o Direct election of a parliament by citizens of the member states, o Formation of a customs union.

Andean community deals with the following issues:


1. Trade in Goods 2. Trade in Services 3. Customs Union 4. movement of people 5. Common Market 6. Common Foreign Policy 7. Border Development 8. Social Agenda 9. Sustainable Development 10. Economic Policies.

FTA with Mercosur

1998 they signed an agreement with the countries of Mercosur, agreeing to create a free trade area.

Andean Passport

In 2001 the Andean Passport was created, enabling citizens of member states to travel between the countries without request for visa. The passport is effective in Ecuador, Peru Venezuela Bolivia.

1. 2. 3. 4.

Institutional bodies within the Andean community


Andean Secretariat Andean Development Corporation (CAF) Andean Court of Justice Andean Parliament Andean Congress Executive body, with a full time Secretary General whose Secretariat is in Lima, Peru. leading source of external financing for the Andean Community members, which is situated in at Caracas, Venezuela. annual total credit given by CAF is over US$ 2 billion. The credit is given to regional projects. in Quito, Ecuador and resolves disputes among member countries. policy advisory body and is situated in Bogota , Colombia. Bogot, Colombia

India and Andean Community


2003, India and the Andean Community established a Political Dialogue and Cooperation Mechanism Cooperate with India environment, energy and food security, rural development and science and technology.

India Sri Lanka Trade Relation- factoids


Not really an article, just some fodder.

India Sri-Lanka Trade relations


Currently, the trade between the India and Sri Lanka is $5 billion.. (India Pakistan trade is $2 billion annually) India will be Setting up of a manufacturing, exports and Pharmaceutial zones in Sri Lanka. Why? =To double the trade between the two nations to $10 billion by 2015. Sri Lankas record of the highest per capital apparel exports in the region. India can offer Sri Lanka, synergistic partnerships in design development and student exchange programs through its premier design institutes like NIFT, NID and FDDI. India and Sri Lanka entered into a free trade agreement in 2000 . And now India is negotiating with Sri Lanka, for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).

India and CELAC: Community of Latin American and Caribbean States


1. What is CELAC? 2. Why in news? 3. Indias Relations with CELAC region

What is CELAC?

Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) is a newly formed regional group comprising 33 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC) region. All the 33 names are not worth memorizing but important fact is: while Mexico is part of CELAC despite being in North American Continent, the USA is not a part of CELAC. Why? Because Latin American nations dont like or want the Imperialist USA in their gang particularly Venezuela and Bolivia. Geographically speaking, USA is not part Latin America but the same USA (and France and UK) were also part of South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) despite not being in South East Asia. So dont tick answers in MCQs based on guesswork about automatic membership or non-membership by geographical location.

Why in news?

Because in Aug 2012, India is hosting the first CELAC Foreign Ministers summit. This is one of the steps towards having a dialogue mechanism similar to the IndiaAfrica forum summit.

Indias Relations with CELAC region


Indias trade with the CELAC region is over $25 billion in 2011 and Indias cumulative investments are estimated to be $16 billion mostly in hydrocarbons, minerals, agriculture, pharma and IT. Although India enjoys friendly and warm relations with all CELAC countries and a shared understanding on the values of democracy, freedom, equality and justice [hahaha] our approach to this region has been admittedly slow, due to of distance, poor connectivity and language constraints. And there exists a vast untapped potential for mutually beneficial cooperation in various sectors.

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and India


1. 2. 3. 4. Member States Should India become a full time member of SCO? Arguments against joining SCO Arguments in favor of joining SCO

Introduction: What is SCO?


Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Intergovernmental organization, consisting of certain of Central Asian countries. Founded in 2001 in Shanghai.

What does SCO do?


For Mutual cooperation to fight again terrorism, separatism and extremism in Central Asia So they help each other in the matters of military cooperation, intelligence sharing, counterterrorism, and joint military exercises for example Peace Mission 2012 was held in Tajikistan. About 2,000 members of the security forces of the member countries participated

Member States
Members 1. China, 2. Kazakhstan, 3. Kyrgyzstan, 4. Russia, 5. Tajikistan, 6. Uzbekistan. Observers 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Afghanistan India Iran Mongolia Pakistan Dialogue Partners 1. Belarus 2. Sri Lanka 3. Turkey

Central Asia: Political Map

Our Foreign Minister SM Krishna (lolz), earlier said that India wants to become a full time member of SCO. Russian Government welcomed this move, and China did not oppose.

Should India become a full time member of SCO? Arguments against joining SCO
Pakistan sponsored Terror companies

China has been trying to use the security mechanism of the SCO for dealing with organisations which are perceived as posing a threat to Beijing and the Central Asian Republics, BUT it does not look upon anti-India organizations sponsored by Pakistan's InterServices Intelligence, or the Afghan Taliban or the Haqqani Network such as the Lashkar-e-Tayiba the Jaish-e-Mohammad, the Harkt-ul-Jihad-al-Islami and the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, as coming within the ambit of the SCO security mechanism.

ideology

There would be very little compatibility between our internal security concerns and interests and those of China and Pakistan and it could be counter-productive for us to participate in this mechanism.

Moreover, our internal security strategy is based on the principle that except in border areas, the police should be the weapon of first resort and the army the weapon of last resort for internal security (i.e. Naxalites, secessionists in North East and J/K.) But The SCO mechanism operates on the principle that the army should be the weapon of first resort with the police playing only a supportive role. [although I think thats a better idea given our cops lack the morale and equipment to deal with internal security troubles.]

China the Cyber bully

The internal security co-operation mechanism of the SCO is now proposed to be extended to the area of cyber security. But The main threats to our cyber security will arise from China. It will not be in our interest to participate in any connectivity and inter-operability mechanism relating to cyber security with China!

Arguments in favor of joining SCO

Indian interest in International North-South Transport Corridor (connects Mumbai in India, Bandra Abbas port in Iran and another port known as Bandar Anzali in northern Iran on the Caspian Sea coast- from Indian perspective, this route is shorter than the existing Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea). This route will help India to bypass Pakistan to reach Central Asia. India is looking for energy cooperation in the region TAPI strategic link in its extended neighborhood and South Asia. (already discussed in earlier article) SCO is promising alternative regional platform to discuss the rapidly changing Afghan situation [because UNO is heavily dominated by USA, and in UNSC, India doesnt enjoy Veto power]

Durfar Conflict & South Sudan Independence: Timeline, Players, Similarities and differences
Donot confuse or mixup between Durfar and South Sudan. These are two separate conflicts with separate climaxes. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. What is Sudan? Background: Durfur and South Sudan Reasons for Conflict Players in Durfur conflict Players in South Sudan Independence Struggle Arrest Warrent against Omar Al Bashir Climax North Vs South Sudan Indias response

What is Sudan?

Area wise the largest nation of Africa. But in 2011, South Sudan became an independent nation, so now the largest country of Africa= Algeria.

Background: Durfur and South Sudan

Carefully Observe the location of Durfar, South Sudan and neighbor African nations

Sudan achieved independence from the British in 1956.

But since the beginning, Sudan has been ruled from Khartoum by a small group of predominantly Arab elites hailing principally from the Nile River valley in central Sudan. Rather than working to develop Sudans economy, empower people in the peripheries of the country, and pull its citizens out of poverty, these elites have hoarded wealth and power for themselves Southern Sudan and Darfur each belong to this historically marginalized periphery. Successive governments in Khartoum have either ignored these regions or sought to suppress them militarily. As a result, southern Sudan and Darfur are two of the poorest, most war-torn, and most underdeveloped places on Earth. In both situations, rebel groups arose to fight for greater political control and increased access to the resources controlled by ruling elites in Khartoum. And in both situations the government in Khartoum responded by arming and training ethnically-based militias and granting them impunity to murder, rape, forcibly displace, and loot property from civilians the government accuses of supporting the rebellion.

Reasons for Conflict


Durfur conflict Location Western Sudan

South Sudan independence movement Common sense.

What is the problem?

the root of the problem is tension over land and grazing rights between the mostly nomadic Arabs vs the tribal Africans from the Fur, Massaleet and Zaghawa communities.

Root of the problem Is, South Sudan feels the Government in North Sudan is just taking away money from all natural (oil n gas) resources from South yet not doing any Development in the region. There has been bitterness since the 1962, at times ceasefires and peace agreements. 2005 rebels and Government signed peace deal. Finally in 2011, South Sudan gained independence.

Started in

Violence started in 2003 and continuing.

Rebels fighting against Omar Al Bashir?

Sudan Liberation Army (SLA). Justice and Equality Movement (JEM)

Sudanese Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) Dinka tribes.

Players in Durfur conflict

A typical Janjaweed goon usually rides horse and wants to kill some innocent Dufur Refugees Government

Rebels

Government headed by President Omar Al Bashir. These are the Tribal Africans, following Junjaweed Militias these are the either Christianity or Animism. Arab goons tolerated, supported, funded and armed by the North 1. Sudan Liberation Army (SLA). Sudanese Government (Omar al Earlier Minni Minnawi was the main Bashir) guy here but just like the Mafia These Arab gunmen petrol on horses, Movies of Bollywood, the SLA is with AK-47 and murder, rape and loot now broken into various factions. any innocent tribal African villagers in 2. Justice and Equality Movement the Durfur region. (JEM) In return, the Tribal Rebels also kill the innocent Sunni Muslims villagers.

Players in South Sudan Independence Struggle


Northern Government

Southern Rebels

headed by President Omar Al Bashir. Murahaleen Arab Militia. They also murder, rape and loot any innocent tribal Africans in the South Sudan region. Theyre worse than the Junjaweed for Murahaleen goons kidnap Southern Tribals and sell them in North as Slaves for domestic labor or fieldwork in the north.

1. Sudan Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA), earlier headed by John Garang but he was killed in plane crash so Salva Kiir Mayardiit became the main boss. Now he is the President of South Sudan. 2. Dinka Tribes

Arrest Warrent against Omar Al Bashir

Omar Al Bashir is the main villian in both conflicts

following rebel attacks, (North) Sudanese Government mobilized the self-defence militias (including the Janjaweed) Whole villages have been sacked and razed to the ground by armed groups called Janjaweed. Women are raped. Men are lined up and shot. Survivors are warned never to return to their sacked villages. All these things do with impunity without any attempt by the government to stop or punish them. Eye witness accounts say the janjaweed are actually armed and equipped by government. The government denies this.

International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague issued an arrest warrant against Omar Al Bashir in 2008. (but he is not yet arrested, why? we already discussed about that in earlier article. CLICK ME)

Climax
Durfur South Sudan

Fighting is still going on. The innocent villagers are hiding in the UN Refugee camps but they cannot venture out in jungles to collect firewood or start farming or go back to their respective villages, because the Junjaweed militia petrol those territories.

In 2005, the North Government and South rebels signed a peace agreement, under which they were to hold a referendum in within 6 years to determine the fate of Southern parts. The referendum was held in January 2011, and the Southern people voted in favor of creating a new nation. Thus South Sudan was created in July 2011 and it was admitted as 193rd Member of UN.

North Vs South Sudan


Difference North Sudan Climate Desert South Sudan Jungle and swamps Africans, following either Christianity or tribal religions. Salva Kiir Mayardit

Population Arabic speaking muslims

Omar Al Bashir

President

Capital city Economy

Khartoom Poor

Juba Poorer

Indias response
Predictable. Although we recognized South Sudan as a sovereign nation, on the very same day when it was formed, but India never openly condemns any villains in UN assembly or in press conference- be it Omar Al Bashir or Bashar Al Assad, because if we do, it gives prompt chance to Pakistan to raise human rights violation in Kashmir. So our Official line is These are internal matters of respective countries and we urge both sides to resolve the matters peacefully through dialogues

Delaram Zaranj Highway, Chabahar Port: India-Iran-Afghanistan trade relations


1. 2. 3. 4. Delaram-Zaranj Highway Why Iran allowed Indian Investment? Whats Indias Problem? 16th NAM summit

Earlier we saw TAPI Pipeline issue, involving India-Afghanistan. (click Me if you didnt) Here comes a new topic on India-Afghanistan (+Iran).

Afghanistan is a land-locked country. Most of its international trade is done through Pakistani sea-ports. Therefore, India wished to connect to Afghanistan via an alternative route (through Iran). So, In 2003 a trilateral agreement was signed among India, Iran and Afghanistan. Under this agreement o Iran was to build a highway from Chabahar (a Port City of Iran) upto Afghanistan border. o India was to build a road connecting Delaram (border city of Afghanistan) to Zaranj (Capital of Nimruz province of Afghanistan)

India wanted to develop port @Chabahar (Iran) to do trading with Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan.

Delaram-Zaranj Highway

DelaramZaranj Highway, also known as Route 606. Length about 200km It connects Delaram (border city of Afghanistan) to Zaranj (Capital of Nimruz province of Afghanistan). India totally financed this project. (about 600 crore rupees). Border Roads Organization (BRO) of India, has constructed this highway. Construction started in 2005, and in 2009 the road was opened for public use. During the construction of this highway,Taliban killed about 130 workers, including 4 Indians from BRO.

So far, all the roadway construction is finished.

India wished to access both Afghanistan and other central Asian nations (like Turkmenistan), through this Chabahar port, But the Chabahar port is not yet fully developed to handle the huge cargo to and from India. All these years, India was requesting Iran to allow them to do some port Development on this port.

Why Iran allowed Indian Investment?

Port city of Chabahar (Iran)

In the early 2012, US put sanction against Iran Oil export, i.e. if any country imports crude oil from Iran, then that countrys bank (through which payments are made to Iran) will not be allowed to do transections in USA. Because of this sanction, most of the nations stopped importing oil from Iran, except some big ones like India and China, but India too felt the heat of US diplomatic pressure and agreed to cut down oil imports from Iran.

Majority of Irans nation income comes from Oil export, so, theyre also feeling the heat. They want money, so, Iranian Government has now allowed India do invest upto $100 million in the Chabahar Port Development project.

Whats Indias Problem?


Well, now Indian Government fears that doing any investment in Iran= USA will be annoyed. So, India wants two things 1. Afghanistan must make a commitment that it will do trading through this Iranian port. (otherwise the whole project will be economically unviable). Because there is a good chance, Afghanistan may not do any trading at all, with pressure from US and Pakistan. 2. Afghanistan should sign a triparitate MoU with Iran and India, make it look like Afghanistan badly wants this project for the Development of its own economy and we (Indians) are just helping in rebuilding the Afghanistan. But Afghanistan has changed the tone now, theyre not saying anything about the project (may be under secret US pressure.) Theyre not keen on signing any such agreement or MoU or statement.

In short, Indias problem is how to calibrate the political signal it sends out at a time when the West is focused on making economic sanctions work effectively against Iran, especially when Afghanistan too has been reluctant given the issues involved.

16th NAM summit


16th NAM summit will be held in Iran, during August 30-31. Mohan is going to visit this summit and will try to negotiate something with the Presidents of Iran and Afghanistan to sign up some new MoU kinda document.

Connect Central Asia Policy: Meaning, Features, Significance for India


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. What is Central Asia? Why is Central Asia important for India? Indias problem in Central Asia? What has China done in Central Asia? What is Connect Central Asia Policy? o Meet and Greet o Fire and kill o Trade and Prosper o Teach and Heal o Fly and Film

What is Central Asia?


It is made up of five nations Country Capital Kazakhstan Astana Kyrgyzstan Bishkek Tajikistan Dushanbe Turkmenistan Ashgabat Uzbekistan Tashkent

Collectively theyre known as Central Asian Republics (CAR) also known as the underbelly of Eurasia

Central Asia (Political)

Why is Central Asia important for India?


rich resource of hydrocarbons and minerals. lies on the old silk route connecting China and South Asia to West Asia and Europe. So we can setup factories in CAR, we can directly launch our products in EU (decreasing the transportation cost).

Indias problem in Central Asia?


Central Asia has huge reserves of hydrocarbon and Minerals. But we are unable to get them because of Transportation problems 1. through Afghanistan : problem region is unstable due to Talibans. 2. through Iran: problem- itll annoy Americans. (recall the Chabahar port article) The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) and Iran-Pakistan-India(IPI) pipelines projects are not moving smoothly due to Pakistan and Afghanistan. There are three key locations from which we can access the Central Asia o Chahabar and Bandar Abbas ports in Iran o Hajigak/Bamiyan in Afghanistan o Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea.

What has China done in Central Asia?

China has already built roads, railways and pipelines across this resource-rich region. o Oil pipelines from the Caspian Sea across Kazakhstan o gas pipeline from Turkmenistan via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, o deep-sea port of Gwadar in Pakistan China is exploiting the Siberian timber, Mongolian iron ore, Kazakh oil, Turkmen natural gas and Afghan copper through this transportation network.

What is Connect Central Asia Policy?


India has launched this Connect Central Asia Policy to o Tap the natural resources (oil,gas,iron-ore etc) of Central Asia. o Counter the hegemony (domination) of China in this region. This policy was formally declared at Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) by our Minister of State (External Affairs) in June 2012. Under this policy, well do following things

Meet and Greet


1. Well build strong political relations with these nations via the exchange of high level visits. Example

Their Presidents/ PMs coming to India and Mohan doing the reverse. Inviting their Presidents as chief guests on our 26th Jan. parades.) 2. Mohan will continue to interact with Central Asian leaders, closely both in bilateral and multilateral fora. i.e SCO, Eurasian Economic Community (EEC), Custom Union, UN etc.
o o

Fire and kill


3. Well strengthen our strategic and security cooperation with this countries. 4. Military training, joint research, counter-terrorism coordination and close consultations on Afghanistan.

Trade and Prosper


5. Proposed a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement 6. Kazakhstan, have almost limitless reserves of iron ore and coal, as well as abundant cheap electricity. India can help set up several medium size steel rolling mills, producing its requirement of specific products. 7. Right now, due to absence of a viable banking infrastructure in the Central Asian region, we are unable to do much trade and investment. So, Indian banks will be setting up branches here. 8. International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) o It is a joint venture between Iran, India, Russia and Azerbaijan o It will connect India to Central Asia through Iran via rail, road and ship network.

International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)

Teach and Heal


9. Well help set up a Central Asian University in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) to impart world class education in areas like IT, management, philosophy and languages. 10. Well set up a Central Asian e-network with its hub in India, to deliver, teleeducation and tele-medicine connectivity, linking all the five Central Asian States. 11. Well be setting up civil hospitals/clinics in Central Asia.

Fly and Film


12. Well improve air connectivity with those countries. (lolz perhaps via Air India!) 13. Central Asian countries could emerge as attractive holiday destinations for tourists and even for the Indian film industry which likes to depict exotic foreign locales in its films. 14. We will encourage regular exchanges of scholars, academics, civil society and youth delegations to gain deeper insights into each others cultures.

Indian and CARICOM (Caribbean Community and Commons Market)


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Timeline of Events What is Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ)? 2m What is Caricom Single Market (CSM)? 2m Member states of CARICOM Functions/ goals / aims of CARICOM Organization structure of CARICOM Limitation / Problem areas in CARICOM Write a note on India and CARICOM Whatre the areas of cooperation between India and CARICOM?

Timeline of Events
1968. Caribbean Free Trade Association (CARIFTA) comes into existence. It dealt with Trade only.

1973

Members of CARIFTA signed a Treaty in Trinidad & Tobago, and transformed CARIFTA into Caribbean Community and Commons Market (CARICOM)

2005 Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) established in London. 2006 Caricom Single Market

What is Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ)? 2m

It is located in London and serves as the final court of appeal for CARICOM members and also handles regional trade disputes.

What is Caricom Single Market (CSM)? 2m

It removed barriers to goods, services, trade, and several categories of labour in all CARICOM states except The Bahamas and Haiti.

Member states of CARICOM

Full Members (15) 1. Antigua and Barbuda 2. Bahamas 3. Barbados 4. Belize 5. Dominica 6. Grenada 7. Guyana 8. Haiti 9. Jamaica 10. Montserrat 11. Saint Kitts and Nevis 12. Saint Lucia 13. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 14. Suriname

Associate Members

Observers

1. Anguilla 2. Bermuda 3. British Virgin Islands 4. Cayman Islands 5. Turks and Caicos Islands

1. Aruba 2. Colombia 3. Dominican Republic 4. Mexico 5. Puerto Rico 6. Venezuela

15. Trinidad and Tobago.

In your school atlas, Locate the places highlighted in bold.

Note:
1. Bahamas and Haiti belong to the Caribbean community but not the Common Market. 2. Chairmanship of the Community is rotated every six months among the member countries Heads.

Functions/ goals / aims of CARICOM


1. CARICOM encourages economic cooperation among member nations through their participation in the Common Market. 2. CARICOM concerns itself with trade and industrial policy, technical and financial assistance programs for its less developed member nations, 3. foreign policy negotiations with nations and trading blocs outside the region. Member nations have experienced only limited success in these policy areas, partly because CARICOM economies have traditionally used trade barriers to protect internal markets. 4. reduction of tariffs on nonagricultural products, 5. To ensure that the benefits of integration are equitably shared, and to coordinate foreign policy. 6. To benefit the people of the region by providing more and better opportunities to produce and sell goods and services and to attract investment. 7. To improve standards of living and work 8. The full employment of labour and other factors of production 9. Accelerated, coordinated and sustained economic development and 10. Convergence expansion of trade and economic relations with third states 11. Enhanced levels of international competitiveness 12. Achievement of a greater measure of economic leverage and effectiveness of member states in dealing with third states, 13. Synergy between member states for e-commerce, government procurement, trade in goods from free zones, free circulation of goods, 14. Free movement of persons between member states.

Organization structure of CARICOM


five Councils for 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Finance and Planning Foreign and Community Relations Human and Social Development Trade and Economic Development Ministers responsible for National Security & Law Enforcement Three Committees 1. Legal Affairs Committee 2. Budget Committee 3. Committee of the Central Bank Governors

Limitation / Problem areas in CARICOM


While some CARICOM economies have grown in the 1990s, unemployment and foreign debt remain high throughout the region. The global and regional trade agreements, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA),have threatened the preferential access of CARICOM nations to foreign export markets in Europe and North America. CARICOM members mostly small island nations lacking the infrastructure and skilled manpower and hence unable to compete in international trade, when it comes to Export giants such like China.

Write a note on India and CARICOM


First meeting of India-CARICOM Foreign Ministers was held in 2005 at Paramaribo (Suriname) on the sidelines of CARICOM Summit.

Whatre the areas of cooperation between India and CARICOM?


1. Indias membership of the Caribbean Development Bank (through which India would be able to co-finance development and integration projects in the region), 2. promotion of trade in goods, services and investments 3. greater Indian participation in Caribbean infrastructure development and regional investment, 4. Supply of retroviral drugs for fighting HIV/AIDS. 5. CARICOM has also requested Indias contribution to CARICOM Development Fund (CDF) to fund economic activities with the CARICOM region. 6. Government of India funded the US$ 1 million for information technology and communication infrastructure. 7. We provided computer software and community studio at the CARICOM Secretariat.

Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC): suspension of Syria, Rohingyas, Jammu n Kashmir


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Why is it in News? Two main outcomes of OIC summit On Rohingyas On Syrian Unrest The pot calling the kettle black Why India is not a member of OIC? India and OIC: Problem area Jammu and Kashmir = Free country

Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)


is an international organization consisting of 57 member states. Established in 1969, to safeguard the interests and ensure the progress and well-being of Muslims.

Why is it in News?

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, called up an emergency summit of OIC in midAugust 2012, in the city of Mecca. This is only the fourth time in the history of OIC, that an emergency summit has been called. Why? Official reason: to address the urgent agenda of the deepening divisions within and between Muslim majority states. Unofficial reason: put pressure on Syrian Government to stop massacring the people.

Two main outcomes of OIC summit On Rohingyas


OIC condemned the violence against the Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar. OIC also released 14-point resolution to pressurise the Myanmarese government to stop the widespread discrimination and administrative hostility being faced by Rohingya Muslims.. King Abdulla ordered assistance of $50 million to the Rohingyas. Although Myanmar Government maintains that the violence in the Rakhine state has anything to do with race or religion, has avoided a political confrontation with the OIC and other leading Islamic nations.

On Syrian Unrest

More than 10,000 protestors have been massacred so far, by President Bashar AlAssads troops. OIC has suspended Syrias membership on 15th August 2012. This was done to send message to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that OIC members will not accept the regime killing its people. Although Iran (an OIC member) rejected the proposal saying : suspension of Syrias membership does not really resolve the issue and is not in line with the OIC charter but majority of OIC members voted in favor of Syrias removal.

The pot calling the kettle black

While OIC calls for protecting the rights of the Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar, the OIC itself is having trouble securing the rights of Muslim minorities and even majorities within its own member states. For example: Ruled by Sunnis

OIC member Saudi Arabia Bahrain

Minority populations problem

Shias complain about the lack of access to government jobs and full religious freedoms. Shia majority has unhappy with them because of the misrule and underdevelopment.

Sunnis

Why India is not a member of OIC?


India has second largest population of Muslims in the world [Indonesia is first], yet we are not a member of OIC, Why? In 1969, the first ever Islamic Summit Conference held Rabat [Capital of Morocco] At that time, Pakistan was the largest Muslim country in the world. And, Pakistani President Gen Yahya Khan had threatened to boycott the summit, if India was allowed membership. For OIC it would have been a diplomatic disaster and death knell to the organization, if the worlds then largest Muslim country walked out. So, King Hassan of Jordan, in his capacity as the chairman of Islamic Conference has decided to withdraw the invitation extended to Indians and bar the Indian delegation from entering Morocco. Thus, India couldnt get admitted to OIC. Sidenote: India is an Observer state in OIC, while China and USA are not even observer states.

India and OIC: Problem area


Over the years, under Pakistani influence, OIC communiqu (a letter issued to press after the summit) used to equate Kashmir issue with Palestine, and refered to Jammu and Kashmir as an occupied territory. and Kashmiri separatists were also invited to attend the summits. But now it appears that Pakistans influence at the OIC is fading. In this latest OIC summit (Aug-2012), for the first time since 1995, Pakistan could not muster an invitation for All Party Hurriyat Conference. But problem is far from over.

Jammu and Kashmir = Free country


In the Final Communique at OIC Summit 2012, the it was mentioned that The Summit affirms its solidarity and full support for Sudan, Somalia, Afghanistan and Jammu and Kashmir, Iraq, Yemen, Ivory Coast, the Union of Comoros and the Republic of Turkish-Cyprus in addressing the challenges facing these countries. Indian Government officially opposed this statement and said This is erroneous and factually incorrect mention about an integral part of India by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).

ADDU declaration in SAARC Summit


1. What is SAARC? 2. Members 3. What is ADDU declaration? o SAFTA o Investment o Trade fair o Railway o Boat o Climate o Food security o Terrorism o Crime o Piracy o Women o Education o Media 4. Mock Question

What is SAARC?

South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) established 1985 HQ: Kathmandu

Members of SAARC

finally one map in google search doesnt include Kashmir in Pakistan 8 Members 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka 9 Observors 1. Australia 2. China 3. European Union 4. Iran 5. Japan 6. Mauritius 7. Myanmar 8. South Korea 9. United States

It seems United States is an observer in pretty much every organization, but do you recall any organization(s), where USA is not a observer? Hint: www.Mrunal.org/diplomacy

What is ADDU declaration?


Addu is the second largest city of Mamldives (capital is Male), where 17th SAARC conference was held. (September 2011) Theme of this Addu summit : Building Bridges. The leaders of SAARC Nations, issued a 20-points declaration here, which is known as Addu Declaration. By the way, the 18th Summit will be held in Kathmandu, Nepal in 2013.

Out of the 20 points of ADDU declaration, Here are the important (and easy to remember) points.

SAFTA

South Asian Free Trade Area or SAFTA is an agreement reached at the 12th SAARC summit in Islamabad, Pakistan [2004]. SAFTA is to reduce customs duties of all traded goods to zero by the year 2016. ADDU says well intensify efforts to fully and effectively implement SAFTA

Investment

SAARC Finance Ministers will work for greater flow of financial capital and intraregional long-term investment.

Trade fair

To hold the Twelfth SAARC Trade Fair + SAARC Travel and Tourism Fair in Kulhudhuffushi, Maldives in 2012.

Railway

Try for Regional Railways Agreement Should do a demonstration run of a container train (Bangladesh India Nepal).

Boat

work on the Indian Ocean Cargo and Passenger Ferry Service this will revolutionise movement of people and goods within the region.

Climate

timely implementation of the Thimphu Statement on Climate Change. Energy Cooperation and the Study on the Regional Power Exchange Concept as also the work related to SAARC Market for Electricity. appropriate percentage of national income should go towards the respective countries renewable energy investments

Food security

Work on SAARC Food Bank.

This Food Bank will supplement national efforts to provide food security to the people of the region.

Terrorism

root out terrorism, taking into account its linkages with illegal trafficking in narcotic drugs, psychotropic substances and small arms Make coordinated and concerted efforts to combat terrorism [good joke, given that Pakistan is also in SAARC]

Crime

Ratify of the SAARC Convention on Mutual Assistance in Criminal Matters.

Piracy

Cooperate to combat maritime piracy in the region.

Women

empowerment of women and gender equality in the region Work on the Convention on Preventing and Combating Trafficking in Women and Children for Prostitution

Education

Mutual recognition of academic and professional degrees. [So, IIPM degree, which is not recognized by UGC, will it be recognized in Pakistan, perhaps!?] Establishment of long-term linkages among universities, research institutions and think-tanks in the region.

Media

convene a Regional Conference on Media to consider deepening collaboration in the region. decide which day to celebrate as SAARC Media day.

Descriptive
1. Addu Declaration (2 marker, 20 words) 2. Write a note on Addu declaration (12 marks, 120 words)

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