EVALUACIN DEL RIESGO MEDIANTE U

SUPONGAMOS QUE TENEMOS EL SIGUIENTE PROYECTO:

-15000

4000

SEGUIDAMENTE GENERAREMOS 300 NMEROS ALEATORIOS. CADA UNO DE LOS FLUJOS ANU
POR EL NMERO ALEATORIO CORRESPONDIENTE Y PARA CADA FLUJO AS GENERADO SE OBTE
SE OBTNDR LA T.I.R. MEDIA Y SU DESVIACIN ESTNDAR, CON LO CUAL TENDREMOS DEFINI
PROBABILSTICA.

SERIE
0.79550005
0.72517014
0.84912107
0.92477645
0.92115238
0.93961608
0.70362407
0.80185553
0.91581164
0.73464614
0.76125828
0.71136814
0.70809503
0.74103214
0.7549028
0.70427259
0.77126072
0.78577227
0.83840907
0.78934294
0.79295938
0.78890042
0.92757653
0.81650441
0.80654012
0.77597583
0.94392682
0.90166631
0.9478103
0.76406598
0.9379223
0.71335948
0.87625965

-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000

4000
3182.00018
2900.68056
3396.48427
3699.10581
3684.60952
3758.46431
2814.49629
3207.4221
3663.24656
2938.58455
3045.03311
2845.47258
2832.38014
2964.12854
3019.61119
2817.09037
3085.04288
3143.08908
3353.63628
3157.37175
3171.83752
3155.60167
3710.3061
3266.01764
3226.16047
3103.90332
3775.70727
3606.66524
3791.24119
3056.26392
3751.6892
2853.43791
3505.03861

0.90413068
0.94312571
0.81658071
0.77505264
0.8875515
0.78787042
0.89391461
0.71858577
0.74960784
0.71601459
0.78958708
0.82176122
0.82780389
0.79336375
0.94647511
0.71017792
0.75767998
0.70124363
0.9315363
0.72507859
0.7641728
0.89392224
0.8699118
0.90227668
0.88108158
0.72126377
0.73306681
0.88903928
0.85662862
0.74341258
0.80119938
0.838081
0.87787713
0.83879055
0.74528947
0.94256874
0.87173528
0.83219855
0.89917142
0.90141453
0.76555376
0.74448836
0.91668905
0.72871029
0.71487777
0.89038972
0.88459883

-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000

3616.52272
3772.50282
3266.32282
3100.21058
3550.206
3151.48167
3575.65844
2874.34309
2998.43135
2864.05835
3158.34834
3287.04489
3311.21555
3173.455
3785.90045
2840.71169
3030.71993
2804.97452
3726.14521
2900.31434
3056.69118
3575.68896
3479.64721
3609.10672
3524.3263
2885.05509
2932.26722
3556.15711
3426.51448
2973.65032
3204.79751
3352.32398
3511.50853
3355.16221
2981.15787
3770.27497
3486.94113
3328.79421
3596.68569
3605.65813
3062.21503
2977.95343
3666.75619
2914.84115
2859.51109
3561.55889
3538.39534

0.9465743
0.93139897
0.92596667
0.83624226
0.82519456
0.86874447
0.82245552
0.73644673
0.70949126
0.89906461
0.86788995
0.88292032
0.84613025
0.73805658
0.92304453
0.79445479
0.75011902
0.75144658
0.78349101
0.78128605
0.77505264
0.90054476
0.87402417
0.76787317
0.92601245
0.70978118
0.87725913
0.81342967
0.82916196
0.76413465
0.77282479
0.90053713
0.89725639
0.86898862
0.88883328
0.93712882
0.85485092
0.88051698
0.94201178
0.79215064
0.9126072
0.83926359
0.91826838
0.81026337
0.75443739
0.91475875
0.77008576

-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000

3786.29719
3725.59587
3703.8667
3344.96902
3300.77822
3474.97787
3289.82208
2945.78692
2837.96503
3596.25843
3471.5598
3531.68126
3384.52101
2952.22633
3692.17811
3177.81915
3000.47609
3005.78631
3133.96405
3125.1442
3100.21058
3602.17902
3496.09668
3071.49266
3704.04981
2839.12473
3509.03653
3253.71868
3316.64785
3056.53859
3091.29917
3602.1485
3589.02554
3475.95447
3555.33311
3748.51527
3419.40367
3522.06793
3768.04712
3168.60256
3650.42879
3357.05435
3673.07352
3241.0535
3017.74957
3659.035
3080.34303

0.87582476
0.87684713
0.79395886
0.78242286
0.72149266
0.94421674
0.77138279
0.83357952
0.8018479
0.94942778
0.92367779
0.90270394
0.92714927
0.84362774
0.87651906
0.80036012
0.72775658
0.92434156
0.79658345
0.7239494
0.89441053
0.89589068
0.86643269
0.86421247
0.76461531
0.89129765
0.87507706
0.91470534
0.70070193
0.86965239
0.93220771
0.71062044
0.82953581
0.9280343
0.93857845
0.84857936
0.83941618
0.9420423
0.82075411
0.76390576
0.90447401
0.82401196
0.9126606
0.8670278
0.93173467
0.81294137
0.74202399

-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000

3503.29905
3507.38853
3175.83544
3129.69146
2885.97064
3776.86697
3085.53117
3334.31806
3207.39158
3797.71111
3694.71114
3610.81576
3708.59706
3374.51094
3506.07624
3201.44047
2911.02634
3697.36625
3186.33381
2895.7976
3577.64214
3583.56273
3465.73077
3456.84988
3058.46126
3565.19059
3500.30824
3658.82138
2802.8077
3478.60958
3728.83084
2842.48177
3318.14325
3712.13721
3754.31379
3394.31745
3357.66472
3768.16919
3283.01645
3055.62304
3617.89605
3296.04785
3650.64241
3468.11121
3726.93869
3251.7655
2968.09595

0.71548814
0.70128941
0.83527329
0.85440077
0.82322611
0.84486373
0.85047151
0.93251289
0.83349559
0.7330134
0.72056948
0.8439787
0.90730461
0.71641896
0.76773583
0.87492447
0.8035493
0.79139531
0.80876797
0.78252205
0.75277413
0.88511765
0.83086337
0.9241966
0.85085299
0.83069552
0.84744255
0.84622944
0.82425611
0.72762688
0.84825892
0.839729
0.8935255
0.75770287
0.88279824
0.84667959
0.83637959
0.90183416
0.94107334
0.72384259
0.72713858
0.87806787
0.92077853
0.74747917
0.7039903
0.74613636
0.8450087

-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000

2861.95257
2805.15763
3341.09317
3417.60308
3292.90445
3379.45494
3401.88604
3730.05158
3333.98236
2932.05359
2882.2779
3375.91479
3629.21842
2865.67583
3070.94333
3499.69787
3214.19721
3165.58123
3235.07187
3130.0882
3011.09653
3540.4706
3323.45347
3696.7864
3403.41197
3322.78207
3389.7702
3384.91775
3297.02445
2910.50752
3393.03568
3358.91598
3574.10199
3030.81149
3531.19297
3386.71834
3345.51836
3607.33665
3764.29334
2895.37034
2908.55434
3512.27149
3683.11411
2989.91668
2815.96118
2984.54543
3380.03479

0.86651662
0.74058199
0.74877621
0.86946165
0.83709677
0.77364116
0.83520463
0.74330576
0.7463271
0.91308786
0.937022
0.76269265
0.80793634
0.83621937
0.94186682
0.88102054
0.93775445
0.84256722
0.93516037
0.76496628
0.74174932
0.92093875
0.90522172
0.71046785
0.92457808
0.80520493
0.73205206
0.70753044
0.75117954
0.87050691
0.90515305
0.81807611
0.81963256
0.8462447
0.79060183
0.90583209
0.77763909
0.94761193
0.89289224
0.88231758
0.74081851
0.90207831
0.93152104
0.75806909
0.79541612
0.72254555
0.92799615

-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000

3466.06647
2962.32795
2995.10483
3477.84661
3348.3871
3094.56465
3340.81851
2973.22306
2985.30839
3652.35145
3748.08802
3050.77059
3231.74535
3344.87747
3767.46727
3524.08216
3751.01779
3370.26887
3740.6415
3059.86511
2966.99728
3683.755
3620.88687
2841.8714
3698.31233
3220.81973
2928.20826
2830.12177
3004.71816
3482.02765
3620.6122
3272.30445
3278.53023
3384.97879
3162.4073
3623.32835
3110.55635
3790.44771
3571.56896
3529.2703
2963.27403
3608.31324
3726.08417
3032.27638
3181.66448
2890.1822
3711.98462

0.91300394
0.8432844
0.70355541
0.87335276
0.87516099
0.9220069
0.74224525
0.92150334
0.7717719
0.75789361
0.71057466
0.92884304
0.7417951
0.93473312
0.73038881
0.78531449
0.72386547
0.93601489
0.82787255
0.85736869
0.90889157
0.94359111
0.81893063
0.73789636
0.77113865
0.90041505
0.90212409
0.87381054
0.71715903
0.72033296
0.81070589
0.76617176

-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000
-15000

3652.01575
3373.13761
2814.22163
3493.41105
3500.64394
3688.02759
2968.98099
3686.01337
3087.08762
3031.57445
2842.29865
3715.37217
2967.18039
3738.93246
2921.55522
3141.25797
2895.4619
3744.05957
3311.49022
3429.47478
3635.56627
3774.36445
3275.72253
2951.58544
3084.55458
3601.66021
3608.49635
3495.24216
2868.63613
2881.33183
3242.82357
3064.68703

LOS RESULTADOS NOS INDICAN QUE EL PROYECTO TIENE UN RIESG

ENTRE LOS SIGUIENTES VALORES, CON UNA PROBABILIDAD DEL 95
6.26%
LA APROXIMACIN A UNA DISTRIBUCIN NORMAL ES VLIDA DE
PROBABILIDAD DE QUE LA TIR SEA MENOR A 10%
z=

0.1-0.12/0.29

-0.02
-0.06896552
0.47240307
PROBABILIDAD DE QUE LA TIR EST ENTRE 20% Y 10%
z=

0.08
0.27687835
0.60908
0.13667693

VALUACIN DEL RIESGO MEDIANTE UNA DISTRIBUCIN DE PROBABILIDADES

5000

5500

5500

5500

OS. CADA UNO DE LOS FLUJOS ANUALES SER MULTIPLICADO

CADA FLUJO AS GENERADO SE OBTENDR LA T.I.R. FINALMENTE
, CON LO CUAL TENDREMOS DEFINIDA NUESTRA DISTRIBUCIN

5000
3977.50023
3625.8507
4245.60533
4623.88226
4605.76189
4698.08039
3518.12037
4009.27763
4579.0582
3673.23069
3806.29139
3556.84072
3540.47517
3705.16068
3774.51399
3521.36296
3856.3036
3928.86135
4192.04535
3946.71468
3964.7969
3944.50209
4637.88263
4082.52205
4032.70058
3879.87915
4719.63408
4508.33155
4739.05148
3820.32991
4689.6115
3566.79739
4381.29826

5500
4375.25025
3988.43577
4670.16587
5086.27049
5066.33808
5167.88842
3869.9324
4410.20539
5036.96402
4040.55376
4186.92053
3912.5248
3894.52269
4075.67675
4151.96539
3873.49925
4241.93396
4321.74749
4611.24989
4341.38615
4361.27659
4338.9523
5101.67089
4490.77425
4435.97064
4267.86706
5191.59749
4959.16471
5212.95663
4202.3629
5158.57265
3923.47713
4819.42808

5500
4375.25025
3988.43577
4670.16587
5086.27049
5066.33808
5167.88842
3869.9324
4410.20539
5036.96402
4040.55376
4186.92053
3912.5248
3894.52269
4075.67675
4151.96539
3873.49925
4241.93396
4321.74749
4611.24989
4341.38615
4361.27659
4338.9523
5101.67089
4490.77425
4435.97064
4267.86706
5191.59749
4959.16471
5212.95663
4202.3629
5158.57265
3923.47713
4819.42808

5500
4375.25025
3988.43577
4670.16587
5086.27049
5066.33808
5167.88842
3869.9324
4410.20539
5036.96402
4040.55376
4186.92053
3912.5248
3894.52269
4075.67675
4151.96539
3873.49925
4241.93396
4321.74749
4611.24989
4341.38615
4361.27659
4338.9523
5101.67089
4490.77425
4435.97064
4267.86706
5191.59749
4959.16471
5212.95663
4202.3629
5158.57265
3923.47713
4819.42808

20%
10%
7%
13%
16%
16%
17%
6%
11%
16%
8%
9%
6%
6%
8%
8%
6%
9%
10%
12%
10%
10%
10%
16%
11%
11%
10%
17%
15%
17%
9%
17%
6%
14%

4520.6534
4715.62853
4082.90353
3875.26322
4437.7575
3939.35209
4469.57305
3592.92886
3748.03919
3580.07294
3947.93542
4108.80612
4139.01944
3966.81875
4732.37556
3550.88961
3788.39991
3506.21815
4657.68151
3625.39293
3820.86398
4469.61119
4349.55901
4511.3834
4405.40788
3606.31886
3665.33403
4445.19639
4283.1431
3717.0629
4005.99689
4190.40498
4389.38566
4193.95276
3726.44734
4712.84371
4358.67641
4160.99277
4495.85711
4507.07266
3827.76879
3722.44179
4583.44523
3643.55144
3574.38887
4451.94861
4422.99417

4972.71874
5187.19138
4491.19388
4262.78954
4881.53325
4333.2873
4916.53035
3952.22175
4122.8431
3938.08023
4342.72897
4519.68673
4552.92138
4363.50063
5205.61312
3905.97858
4167.23991
3856.83996
5123.44966
3987.93222
4202.95038
4916.57231
4784.51491
4962.52174
4845.94867
3966.95074
4031.86743
4889.71603
4711.45741
4088.76919
4406.59658
4609.44548
4828.32423
4613.34803
4099.09207
5184.12809
4794.54405
4577.09204
4945.44282
4957.77993
4210.54567
4094.68596
5041.78976
4007.90658
3931.82775
4897.14347
4865.29359

4972.71874
5187.19138
4491.19388
4262.78954
4881.53325
4333.2873
4916.53035
3952.22175
4122.8431
3938.08023
4342.72897
4519.68673
4552.92138
4363.50063
5205.61312
3905.97858
4167.23991
3856.83996
5123.44966
3987.93222
4202.95038
4916.57231
4784.51491
4962.52174
4845.94867
3966.95074
4031.86743
4889.71603
4711.45741
4088.76919
4406.59658
4609.44548
4828.32423
4613.34803
4099.09207
5184.12809
4794.54405
4577.09204
4945.44282
4957.77993
4210.54567
4094.68596
5041.78976
4007.90658
3931.82775
4897.14347
4865.29359

4972.71874
5187.19138
4491.19388
4262.78954
4881.53325
4333.2873
4916.53035
3952.22175
4122.8431
3938.08023
4342.72897
4519.68673
4552.92138
4363.50063
5205.61312
3905.97858
4167.23991
3856.83996
5123.44966
3987.93222
4202.95038
4916.57231
4784.51491
4962.52174
4845.94867
3966.95074
4031.86743
4889.71603
4711.45741
4088.76919
4406.59658
4609.44548
4828.32423
4613.34803
4099.09207
5184.12809
4794.54405
4577.09204
4945.44282
4957.77993
4210.54567
4094.68596
5041.78976
4007.90658
3931.82775
4897.14347
4865.29359

15%
17%
11%
9%
15%
10%
15%
7%
8%
7%
10%
12%
12%
10%
17%
6%
9%
6%
17%
7%
9%
15%
14%
15%
14%
7%
7%
15%
13%
8%
11%
12%
14%
12%
8%
17%
14%
12%
15%
15%
9%
8%
16%
7%
7%
15%
15%

4732.87149
4656.99484
4629.83337
4181.21128
4125.97278
4343.72234
4112.2776
3682.23365
3547.45628
4495.32304
4339.44975
4414.60158
4230.65126
3690.28291
4615.22263
3972.27393
3750.59511
3757.23289
3917.45506
3906.43025
3875.26322
4502.72378
4370.12085
3839.36583
4630.06226
3548.90591
4386.29566
4067.14835
4145.80981
3820.67324
3864.12397
4502.68563
4486.28193
4344.94308
4444.16639
4685.64409
4274.25459
4402.58492
4710.0589
3960.7532
4563.03598
4196.31794
4591.3419
4051.31687
3772.18696
4573.79376
3850.42879

5206.15864
5122.69433
5092.81671
4599.33241
4538.57006
4778.09458
4523.50536
4050.45701
3902.20191
4944.85534
4773.39473
4856.06174
4653.71639
4059.3112
5076.7449
4369.50133
4125.65462
4132.95618
4309.20057
4297.07327
4262.78954
4952.99615
4807.13294
4223.30241
5093.06848
3903.7965
4824.92523
4473.86319
4560.39079
4202.74056
4250.53636
4952.95419
4934.91012
4779.43739
4888.58303
5154.2085
4701.68004
4842.84341
5181.06479
4356.82852
5019.33958
4615.94974
5050.47609
4456.44856
4149.40565
5031.17313
4235.47166

5206.15864
5122.69433
5092.81671
4599.33241
4538.57006
4778.09458
4523.50536
4050.45701
3902.20191
4944.85534
4773.39473
4856.06174
4653.71639
4059.3112
5076.7449
4369.50133
4125.65462
4132.95618
4309.20057
4297.07327
4262.78954
4952.99615
4807.13294
4223.30241
5093.06848
3903.7965
4824.92523
4473.86319
4560.39079
4202.74056
4250.53636
4952.95419
4934.91012
4779.43739
4888.58303
5154.2085
4701.68004
4842.84341
5181.06479
4356.82852
5019.33958
4615.94974
5050.47609
4456.44856
4149.40565
5031.17313
4235.47166

5206.15864
5122.69433
5092.81671
4599.33241
4538.57006
4778.09458
4523.50536
4050.45701
3902.20191
4944.85534
4773.39473
4856.06174
4653.71639
4059.3112
5076.7449
4369.50133
4125.65462
4132.95618
4309.20057
4297.07327
4262.78954
4952.99615
4807.13294
4223.30241
5093.06848
3903.7965
4824.92523
4473.86319
4560.39079
4202.74056
4250.53636
4952.95419
4934.91012
4779.43739
4888.58303
5154.2085
4701.68004
4842.84341
5181.06479
4356.82852
5019.33958
4615.94974
5050.47609
4456.44856
4149.40565
5031.17313
4235.47166

17%
17%
16%
12%
12%
14%
12%
8%
6%
15%
14%
14%
13%
8%
16%
10%
8%
8%
10%
10%
9%
15%
14%
9%
16%
6%
14%
11%
12%
9%
9%
15%
15%
14%
15%
17%
13%
14%
17%
10%
16%
12%
16%
11%
8%
16%
9%

4379.12381
4384.23566
3969.79431
3912.11432
3607.4633
4721.08371
3856.91397
4167.89758
4009.23948
4747.13889
4618.38893
4513.5197
4635.74633
4218.13868
4382.59529
4001.80059
3638.78292
4621.70782
3982.91726
3619.747
4472.05267
4479.45341
4332.16346
4321.06235
3823.07657
4456.48824
4375.3853
4573.52672
3503.50963
4348.26197
4661.03854
3553.10221
4147.67907
4640.17151
4692.89224
4242.89682
4197.0809
4710.21149
4103.77056
3819.52879
4522.37007
4120.05982
4563.30302
4335.13901
4658.67336
4064.70687
3710.11994

4817.03619
4822.65923
4366.77374
4303.32575
3968.20963
5193.19208
4242.60537
4584.68734
4410.16343
5221.85278
5080.22782
4964.87167
5099.32096
4639.95254
4820.85482
4401.98065
4002.66121
5083.8786
4381.20899
3981.7217
4919.25794
4927.39875
4765.3798
4753.16858
4205.38423
4902.13706
4812.92383
5030.87939
3853.86059
4783.08817
5127.1424
3908.41243
4562.44697
5104.18867
5162.18146
4667.1865
4616.789
5181.23264
4514.14762
4201.48167
4974.60707
4532.0658
5019.63332
4768.65291
5124.5407
4471.17756
4081.13193

4817.03619
4822.65923
4366.77374
4303.32575
3968.20963
5193.19208
4242.60537
4584.68734
4410.16343
5221.85278
5080.22782
4964.87167
5099.32096
4639.95254
4820.85482
4401.98065
4002.66121
5083.8786
4381.20899
3981.7217
4919.25794
4927.39875
4765.3798
4753.16858
4205.38423
4902.13706
4812.92383
5030.87939
3853.86059
4783.08817
5127.1424
3908.41243
4562.44697
5104.18867
5162.18146
4667.1865
4616.789
5181.23264
4514.14762
4201.48167
4974.60707
4532.0658
5019.63332
4768.65291
5124.5407
4471.17756
4081.13193

4817.03619
4822.65923
4366.77374
4303.32575
3968.20963
5193.19208
4242.60537
4584.68734
4410.16343
5221.85278
5080.22782
4964.87167
5099.32096
4639.95254
4820.85482
4401.98065
4002.66121
5083.8786
4381.20899
3981.7217
4919.25794
4927.39875
4765.3798
4753.16858
4205.38423
4902.13706
4812.92383
5030.87939
3853.86059
4783.08817
5127.1424
3908.41243
4562.44697
5104.18867
5162.18146
4667.1865
4616.789
5181.23264
4514.14762
4201.48167
4974.60707
4532.0658
5019.63332
4768.65291
5124.5407
4471.17756
4081.13193

14%
14%
10%
10%
7%
17%
9%
12%
11%
17%
16%
15%
16%
13%
14%
11%
7%
16%
10%
7%
15%
15%
14%
14%
9%
15%
14%
16%
6%
14%
17%
6%
12%
16%
17%
13%
12%
17%
12%
9%
15%
12%
16%
14%
17%
11%
8%

3577.44072
3506.44704
4176.36647
4272.00385
4116.13056
4224.31867
4252.35755
4662.56447
4167.47795
3665.06699
3602.84738
4219.89349
4536.52303
3582.09479
3838.67916
4374.62233
4017.74651
3956.97653
4043.83984
3912.61025
3763.87066
4425.58824
4154.31684
4620.983
4254.26496
4153.47758
4237.21274
4231.14719
4121.28056
3638.1344
4241.2946
4198.64498
4467.62749
3788.51436
4413.99121
4233.39793
4181.89795
4509.17081
4705.36668
3619.21293
3635.69292
4390.33937
4603.89264
3737.39586
3519.95148
3730.68178
4225.04349

3935.18479
3857.09174
4594.00311
4699.20423
4527.74361
4646.75054
4677.59331
5128.82092
4584.22575
4031.57369
3963.13211
4641.88284
4990.17533
3940.30427
4222.54707
4812.08457
4419.52116
4352.67418
4448.22382
4303.87127
4140.25773
4868.14707
4569.74853
5083.0813
4679.69146
4568.82534
4660.93402
4654.26191
4533.40861
4001.94784
4665.42405
4618.50948
4914.39024
4167.36579
4855.39033
4656.73772
4600.08774
4960.08789
5175.90335
3981.13422
3999.26222
4829.3733
5064.2819
4111.13544
3871.94662
4103.74996
4647.54784

3935.18479
3857.09174
4594.00311
4699.20423
4527.74361
4646.75054
4677.59331
5128.82092
4584.22575
4031.57369
3963.13211
4641.88284
4990.17533
3940.30427
4222.54707
4812.08457
4419.52116
4352.67418
4448.22382
4303.87127
4140.25773
4868.14707
4569.74853
5083.0813
4679.69146
4568.82534
4660.93402
4654.26191
4533.40861
4001.94784
4665.42405
4618.50948
4914.39024
4167.36579
4855.39033
4656.73772
4600.08774
4960.08789
5175.90335
3981.13422
3999.26222
4829.3733
5064.2819
4111.13544
3871.94662
4103.74996
4647.54784

3935.18479
3857.09174
4594.00311
4699.20423
4527.74361
4646.75054
4677.59331
5128.82092
4584.22575
4031.57369
3963.13211
4641.88284
4990.17533
3940.30427
4222.54707
4812.08457
4419.52116
4352.67418
4448.22382
4303.87127
4140.25773
4868.14707
4569.74853
5083.0813
4679.69146
4568.82534
4660.93402
4654.26191
4533.40861
4001.94784
4665.42405
4618.50948
4914.39024
4167.36579
4855.39033
4656.73772
4600.08774
4960.08789
5175.90335
3981.13422
3999.26222
4829.3733
5064.2819
4111.13544
3871.94662
4103.74996
4647.54784

7%
6%
12%
13%
12%
13%
13%
17%
12%
7%
7%
13%
16%
7%
9%
14%
11%
10%
11%
10%
8%
15%
12%
16%
13%
12%
13%
13%
12%
7%
13%
12%
15%
9%
14%
13%
12%
15%
17%
7%
7%
14%
16%
8%
6%
8%
13%

4332.58309
3702.90994
3743.88104
4347.30827
4185.48387
3868.20582
4176.02313
3716.52882
3731.63549
4565.43931
4685.11002
3813.46324
4039.68169
4181.09684
4709.33409
4405.10269
4688.77224
4212.83609
4675.80187
3824.83139
3708.7466
4604.69375
4526.10858
3552.33924
4622.89041
4026.02466
3660.26032
3537.65221
3755.8977
4352.53456
4525.76525
4090.38057
4098.16279
4231.22349
3953.00913
4529.16044
3888.19544
4738.05963
4464.4612
4411.58788
3704.09253
4510.39155
4657.60521
3790.34547
3977.0806
3612.72774
4639.98077

4765.8414
4073.20093
4118.26914
4782.03909
4604.03226
4255.0264
4593.62545
4088.18171
4104.79904
5021.98325
5153.62102
4194.80956
4443.64986
4599.20652
5180.26749
4845.61296
5157.64946
4634.11969
5143.38206
4207.31452
4079.62127
5065.16312
4978.71944
3907.57317
5085.17945
4428.62712
4026.28636
3891.41743
4131.48747
4787.78802
4978.34178
4499.41862
4507.97906
4654.34584
4348.31004
4982.07648
4277.01498
5211.8656
4910.90732
4852.74667
4074.50179
4961.43071
5123.36573
4169.38002
4374.78866
3974.00052
5103.97885

4765.8414
4073.20093
4118.26914
4782.03909
4604.03226
4255.0264
4593.62545
4088.18171
4104.79904
5021.98325
5153.62102
4194.80956
4443.64986
4599.20652
5180.26749
4845.61296
5157.64946
4634.11969
5143.38206
4207.31452
4079.62127
5065.16312
4978.71944
3907.57317
5085.17945
4428.62712
4026.28636
3891.41743
4131.48747
4787.78802
4978.34178
4499.41862
4507.97906
4654.34584
4348.31004
4982.07648
4277.01498
5211.8656
4910.90732
4852.74667
4074.50179
4961.43071
5123.36573
4169.38002
4374.78866
3974.00052
5103.97885

4765.8414
4073.20093
4118.26914
4782.03909
4604.03226
4255.0264
4593.62545
4088.18171
4104.79904
5021.98325
5153.62102
4194.80956
4443.64986
4599.20652
5180.26749
4845.61296
5157.64946
4634.11969
5143.38206
4207.31452
4079.62127
5065.16312
4978.71944
3907.57317
5085.17945
4428.62712
4026.28636
3891.41743
4131.48747
4787.78802
4978.34178
4499.41862
4507.97906
4654.34584
4348.31004
4982.07648
4277.01498
5211.8656
4910.90732
4852.74667
4074.50179
4961.43071
5123.36573
4169.38002
4374.78866
3974.00052
5103.97885

14%
8%
8%
14%
12%
9%
12%
8%
8%
16%
17%
9%
11%
12%
17%
14%
17%
13%
17%
9%
8%
16%
15%
6%
16%
11%
7%
6%
8%
14%
15%
11%
12%
13%
10%
15%
10%
17%
15%
14%
8%
15%
17%
9%
10%
7%
16%

4565.01968
4216.42201
3517.77703
4366.76382
4375.80493
4610.03449
3711.22623
4607.51671
3858.85952
3789.46806
3552.87332
4644.21522
3708.97549
4673.66558
3651.94403
3926.57247
3619.32737
4680.07447
4139.36277
4286.84347
4544.45784
4717.95557
4094.65316
3689.4818
3855.69323
4502.07526
4510.62044
4369.05271
3585.79516
3601.66478
4053.52947
3830.85879

5021.52165
4638.06421
3869.55473
4803.4402
4813.38542
5071.03793
4082.34886
5068.26838
4244.74548
4168.41487
3908.16065
5108.63674
4079.87304
5141.03214
4017.13843
4319.22971
3981.26011
5148.08191
4553.29905
4715.52782
4998.90362
5189.75112
4504.11847
4058.42998
4241.26255
4952.28278
4961.68249
4805.95798
3944.37468
3961.83126
4458.88241
4213.94467

5021.52165
4638.06421
3869.55473
4803.4402
4813.38542
5071.03793
4082.34886
5068.26838
4244.74548
4168.41487
3908.16065
5108.63674
4079.87304
5141.03214
4017.13843
4319.22971
3981.26011
5148.08191
4553.29905
4715.52782
4998.90362
5189.75112
4504.11847
4058.42998
4241.26255
4952.28278
4961.68249
4805.95798
3944.37468
3961.83126
4458.88241
4213.94467

5021.52165
16%
4638.06421
13%
3869.55473
6%
4803.4402
14%
4813.38542
14%
5071.03793
16%
4082.34886
8%
5068.26838
16%
4244.74548
9%
4168.41487
9%
3908.16065
6%
5108.63674
16%
4079.87304
8%
5141.03214
17%
4017.13843
7%
4319.22971
10%
3981.26011
7%
5148.08191
17%
4553.29905
12%
4715.52782
13%
4998.90362
16%
5189.75112
17%
4504.11847
12%
4058.42998
8%
4241.26255
9%
4952.28278
15%
4961.68249
15%
4805.95798
14%
3944.37468
7%
3961.83126
7%
4458.88241
11%
4213.94467
9%
MEDIA
12%
DESV.EST.
3%
COEF.VAR.
0.28893556

N QUE EL PROYECTO TIENE UN RIESGO MODERADO. LA TIR ESTAR

ES, CON UNA PROBABILIDAD DEL 95%:
11.96%

17.66%

TRIBUCIN NORMAL ES VLIDA DE ACUERDO AL TEOREMA DEL LMITE CENTRAL

SEA MENOR A 10%

EST ENTRE 20% Y 10%