THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

Mine enel, Bilgin enel, Levent Bilir, and Vedat Zeytin,

The Relation between Electricity Demand and the Economic and Demographic State: A Multiple Regression Analysis,
Volume 38, Number 2

Copyright 2013

THE RELATION BETWEEN ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND THE ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC STATE: A MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Mine S xenel, Bilgin S xenel, Levent Bilir, and Vedat Zeytin*

nergy is among the most important needs of mankind and carries with it a significant global impact. The demand for energy and natural resources is

*Mine S xenel, Associate Professor in the Industrial Engineering Department at Tunceli University (Turkey), received her Ph.D. in business administration from AfyonKocatepe University (Turkey). Her areas of research include management and organization, renewable energy, finance, strategic management, and total quality management. Dr. S xenels works have been published in Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, Journal of Knowledge & Human Resource Management, Journal of Applied Global Research, and International Journal of Management and Business. Bilgin S xenel, Assistant Professor in the Industrial Engineering Department at Tunceli University, received his Ph.D. in business administration from AfyonKocatepe University. His academic interests are management and organization, renewable energy, finance, and information technology management. Dr. S xenels works have appeared in Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, Journal of International Business Management & Research, and Journal of Knowledge & Human Resource Management. Levent Bilir, Assistant Professor in the Energy Systems Department of Atilim University (Turkey), earned his Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from Izmir Institute of Technology (Turkey). His research interests include computational fluid dynamics, renewable energy, thermal energy storage, and numerical methods in heat transfer. Dr. Bilirs articles have appeared in International Journal of Thermal Sciences, Journal of Enhanced Heat Transfer, Applied Thermal Engineering, and International Journal of Energy Research. Vedat Zeytin works in Electrical and Electronics Engineering at Ford Automotive Industries A.S. as a Product Development and Design Engineer. He graduated from the Electrical and Electronics Engineering Department of Anadolu University (Turkey) with a double major in industrial engineering. The Journal of Energy and Development, Vol. 38, Nos. 1 and 2 Copyright 2013 by the International Research Center for Energy and Economic Development (ICEED). All rights reserved.

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increasing rapidly in conjunction with rising population, industrialization, and urbanization as well as the growth in production and commercial opportunities resulting from globalization. Cost fluctuations in the energy sector, the burgeoning energy demand of developing countries, and the impacts of climate change are resulting in concerns over how best to manage energy risks. Thus, countries are taking precautions in order to decrease their energy needs and assess their policies. It is estimated that the need for global energy will be 40 percent higher by 2030 than it is today with demand growth mainly coming from developing nations. This situation will be a significant challenge to development stability for countries like Turkey, which sources 74 percent of its needed energy requirements from abroad and consumes approximately 400 liters of petroleum energy equivalent in order to produce U.S. $1,000 national gross product.1 The fact that Turkeys growth rate is 8.5 percent and its total energy use rose to 229 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2011 has made it readily apparent that the country should make serious investments in energy production in the near future. Otherwise, the rapid increase in energy demand will result in Turkeys increased dependence on foreign energy supplies and could cause an energy shortage risk in the 21st century (A. So zen et. al).2 Several researchers, aware of this situation, have undertaken various studies to provide an estimation of the future energy needs of Turkey and its cities as well as the factors affecting energy needs.3 (M. O. Hengirmen; F. Aksel; T. Bakirtas, . Karacasu and S. Karbuz, and M. Bildirici; V. Ediger and H. Tatlidil; O M. Hocaog xebi and F. Kutay; H. Ceylan and H. Ozturk; Z. Yumurtac lu; C. Hamzac and E. Asmaz; M. Ozturk et al.; G. Altinay and E. Karagol; D. Akay and M. Atak; O. Yu xebi; E. Erdogdu; U. Soytas and ksek et al.; V. Ediger and S. Akar; C. Hamzac R. Sari; T. Jobert and F. Karanfil; W. Lise and K. Montfort; G. Erdal et al.; F. Karanfil; E. Erbaykal; and K. Kavaklog lu et al.). E. Erdog du applied a simple autoregressive model with one variable integrated with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using data collected between 1923 and 2004 in order to determine Turkeys total electrical energy needs. 4 It is reported that the total electrical energy need will increase 3.3 percent a year until 2014 and the electricity demand, which was 156 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2010, will reach 160 TWh in 2014. V. Ediger and H. Tatldil forecasted Turkeys primary energy demand with an ARIMA model using data between 1950 and 2004.5 According to their research, the primary energy demand increase will decline between years 2005 to 2020 and fossil fuels will play an important role in the future. D. Akay and M. Atak used the Grey prediction method with data for the years 1970 to 2004 and found that the total electrical consumption will be 165 TWh in Turkey.6 O. Yu ksel et al. established a simulation model for Turkeys long-term energy demand and for its hydroelectric potential using electricity consumption data

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between 1990 and 2003. As a result, they reported that by 2020, Turkey only can meet 46 percent of its own energy demand.7 Z. Yumurtac and E. Asmaz performed an estimation study for the electrical energy demand of Turkey between 2003 and 2050 and found that the country could generate a total of 360 billion kWh of electrical energy in 2050.8 They employed a multiple variable regression model with data between 1980 and 2002. In this study, we investigate the Turkish city of Eskis xehir city, which is rated as the third most livable among 81 cities according to research by the Turkey Sta_ and State Planning Establishment (DPT). In addition to IK) tistics Institution (TU the city being one of Turkeys foremost industrial centers, it also ranks as third in terms of development and modernity according to the United Nations Development Programs Human Development Report. The city has a 1.4 percent share of Turkeys gross national product (GNP) and its average income per capita has increased from U.S. $2,600 (in 1990) to U.S. $13,500 (in 2010). Three hydroelectric power plants supply electricity to this fast-growing urban center. The first one is the Go kc xekaya Hydroelectic Power Plant, which has a 278 megawatt (MW) capacity and generates 562 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of electrical energy per year. The second plant is the Karg Hydroelectric Power Plant, which produces 245 GWh of electrical energy per year with a capacity of 194 MW. The last is the Yenice Hydroelectric Power Plant, which supplies 122 GWh of electrical energy per year with a capacity of 38 MW. As a result, a total of 900,000 megawatt-hours (MWh) of electrical energy generation capacity is available from these three power plants for Eskis xehir. Eskis xehir city is expected to attract more investments in the coming years and, hence, will need more energy than is generated today (2013). For this reason, in this study the relationship between electrical peak load and economic growth and population is estimated using a multiple regression technique, which is one of the statistical forecasting methods. The electrical peak-load values for a six-year period from 2009 through 2015 are estimated according to derived correlations. Definition of Demand Forecasting In todays competitive business environment, companies must make accurate and consistent future customer demand forecasts in order to meet their customers needs in time. Generally, this is accomplished using statistical methods. However, there is not only one determined method that should be used for demand estimation. In addition, results derived from different techniques may differ from each other. Making future forecasts is a factor of socioeconomic development. All private and public companies ideally should make solid estimations about future events in order to protect and develop their positions. They also should find appropriate solutions with a suitable plan and strategies to manage future problems that could arise based upon their forecasts.

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Several management levels need various forecasts about the future activities of their firm. Forecast research is essential to facilitate in the planning and decisionmaking processes. Forecasting can be categorized into three main groups: sales forecasts, production forecasts, and market forecasts. Sales forecasts are used for short-term sales and for planning related to sale promotions and other marketing strategies. Generally, these are made for onemonth up to one-year periods. However, estimations for three-month periods are more useful. Production forecasts are made to estimate the market demand of each product. This type of estimation is made for every period (generally, one week or one month) and in a planned time interval (generally, three months to one year). The forecasts of each period are then aggregated in order to estimate the total demand. This total demand estimation is used for long-term production plans. The longterm plans include decisions about labor shifts, work power quantity, additional equipment, and custom manufacturing. Forecasts made for such periods are used in the determination of material requirements and production orders.9 These forecasts provide assistance for detailed program preparation, worker and machine scheduling, and other short-term decisions. Market forecasts provide guidance to long-term development plans for one to 20 years and research and development activities. These types of forecasts are considerably more important as they determine the enterprises future direction and strategies. Hence, they should be prepared very carefully.

Methods Used in Demand Forecasting There is not a unique method for demand forecasting. Goods and services vary considerably in an economy; the demand for consumption goods, intermediate goods, and capital goods are realized separately from each other, while the acquired statistics are frequently limited and at different levels of reliability. For these reasons, it is impossible to use only one demand forecasting method. The forecasting techniques used in the decision process are classified as either numerical or non-numerical. First, decision makers should determine the most convenient estimation technique to the nature of the problem for which the forecast is being made. In the selection of the forecasting technique, several factors including time interval for the estimations, time required for the preparation of the estimations, decision type (short-term, intermediate-term, or longterm decision) to be made using estimations, data accessibility, the characteristics of the data, the cost of the sources used in the estimation process, the error margin that can be tolerated, the convenience of the technique, and the personal characteristics of the decision makers who will use the estimations should be taken into consideration.

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In forecasting, numerical techniques require the collection of the ideas and judgments of the people who are supposed to have information about the present situation and the plans about the future. Non-numerical techniques can be used when the numerical data are not present or show a large variability. The input for numerical techniques, which take into account subjective factors, can be collected from various sources including customers, sales personnel, managers, technical personnel, and some specialists. Forecasts that are made using non-numerical techniques are dependent upon the knowledge and experience of the people who are making the estimations.
Non-Numerical Forecast Methods: The accuracy of the forecasts is greatly influenced by the judgments and experiences of the individuals who are accepted as experts on the subject. Using this approach, data processing is performed by experts or by jurors. As non-numerical methods are dependent on subjective judgments, their results are not repeatable and are questionable. However, in some situations, there is the need to use these methods. These can be summarized as: (1) situations in which there are not sufficient data about the past; (2) situations in which present time series are not reliable or are not valid; (3) situations in which the macro environment changes very rapidly; (4) situations in which great changes about the environmental impacts are expected; and (5) situations in which longterm forecasts are needed. Numerical Forecast Methods: These estimations are made with the help of past data and variables by using one or more mathematical models. We will briefly review these approaches. Regression Analysis Method : The relationship between global company variables such as sales, capital, profits, production capacity, and personnel quantity and requirements can be analyzed with a regression analysis method. Regression correlation analysis allows one to investigate the relationship of personnel quantity with one or more of the variables mentioned above. Basically, there are simple, linear, and non-linear regression models. Econometric Models : The most reliable method for companies where sufficient statistical data can be supplied for demand forecasts is the econometric model. Establishment of the econometric model is made by the determination of independent variables, which define the dependent variable, and by expressing the mathematical relations between the independent and dependent variables. The econometric models used for demand forecasting cover a wide area from simple models to very complex ones with multiple variables. There are also other econometric models used for demand forecasting, such as input-output analysis with multiple unknowns and multiple equations or models with linear programming. These models often are run with the aid of computer programs. It is worth noting that the use of econometric models for demand estimations requires expertise.

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Time Series Method : The data collection by the observation of a response variable in periodical time spots is referred to as time series.10 Furthermore, it can be defined as consecutive data observed in time. Examples of time series would be the quantity of a product sold from a company in a week, the number of accidents taking place in a motorway in a weeks time, and the monthly inflation rate for a country. Generally, time series data are not independent. Observations in a close time interval are more similar to each other than the ones observed over a longer time interval. The relationship between the data is inversely proportional with the interval.

Data Analysis In this section, the chosen statistical analysis method for the estimation of Eskis xehir citys peak load will be described, followed by the establishment and consideration of the model. Multiple regression analysis is used for the estimation of the electrical energy demand of Eskis xehir city for a six-year period through the year 2010. The relation between Eskis xehir city demand for electricity and the economic and demographic state is investigated and the estimation for electricity demand is performed. Linear, exponential, and quadratic regression models are taken into consideration and the most suitable one is determined according to the analyses. The least squares method, given in equation (1), provides us with the best result by minimizing the sum of the squared errors. Xn y yi;estimated value 2 1 S = i = 1 i;real value In equation (1), n represents the data number, yi,real value represents the present real data, yi,estimated value represents the approximated value, and S represents the sum of the squared errors. In the least squares method, the derivative of S is taken in terms of each variable and is equalized to 0. As a result, normal equations, which should be solved simultaneously, are obtained.11 In this study, linear, exponential, and quadratic functions are used for yi, estimated value. A linear model gives a relation between two independent variables and a dependent variable. In this approach, the relation between variables is expressed linearly. The time series can be described as in equation (1).12 y = a + bx 2

In equation (2), a stands for the point where the line intersects the y axis and b stands for the slope. If the least squares method is used in order to minimize the error, equations (3) and (4) are derived.13

AN ANALYSIS OF ELECTRICITY & THE STATE an + b a Xn Xn x = i=1 i Xn y i=1 i Xn x :y i=1 i i

263 3 4

x +b i=1 i

Xn

x2 = i=1 i

The coefficients a and b can be found by solving these two equations simultaneously. For our case, y represents the peak-load value, x represents years, and n represents the number of the year taken into consideration. The coefficients obtained from the least squares method can be replaced in equation (2) and can be used for electrical load demand estimations.14 In the exponential model, the equation, which represents the relation between the variables, is written as an exponential equation.15 y = abx 5

When the logarithmic expression of equation (5) is derived and the least squares method is applied, equations (6), (7), and (8) are obtained.16 logy = loga + xlogb Xn Xn logyi = nloga + i=1 x logyi = i=1 i X Xn
i=1

6 xi logb Xn 2 x log b i i=1 7 8

x loga + i1 i

Since equation (6) is linear, the coefficients a and b given in equations (9) and (10) can be calculated similar to the linear case.17 loga = logb = 1 Xn logyi i=1 n Xn
i=1

9 10

xi logyi P n 2 i = 1 xi

The coefficients a and b can be replaced in equation (5) in order to make electrical load estimations.18 In the quadratic model, the relation between the sum of the powers of two independent variables and the dependent variable exists. In this approach, a parabolic relationship, which is given in equation (11), is used.19 y = a + bx + cx2 11

The coefficients can be solved from the equation system given as the matrix form in equation (12).

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i = 1 xi Pn 2 i = 1 xi Pn 3 i = 1 xi

Pn

Pn

6 6 Pn xi 4 i=1 Pn 2 i = 1 xi = 1

i=1 Pn i=1 Pn i=1

2 3 2 Pn x 3 i=1 i Pn 7 a 7 3 7:4 b 56 xi 5 4 i = 1 xi yi 5 Pn 2 c x4 i = 1 xi yi i x2 i

12

Gross national product (GNP), which is one of the criteria for economic size and defined as the monetary equivalent of total goods and services produced in a country for a definite time, is selected as the indicator of the economic situation of Eskis xehir city. The annual GNP for Eskis xehir city is presented in table 1 (the GNP for 1994 is 0.045 million Turkish lira). As can be seen from table 1, the economic situation of Eskis xehir city has been improving every year from 1999 through 2009; this change is illustrated further in figure 1. The GNP value, which is one of our independent variables in this analysis, also should be forecasted for the upcoming years as these GNP values will be used in the estimation of electrical demand. Thus, the GNP values will be estimated first, using the present GNP data, and then the electrical demand estimations for the upcoming years will be performed by substituting the forecasted GNP values into the equations obtained by multiple regression analysis. A similar procedure will be applied for the population variable, which will provide us with the demographic overview of the city. Hence, it is crucial to obtain good estimations for population and GNP values in order to make a solid approximation for electrical demand. The data for the population of Eskis xehir city are given in table 2 and the population change can be seen in figure 2. Since the population values are obtained for some years, the missing values in table 2 are produced by linear interpolation and given in table 3 and figure 3.

Results and Discussion As was mentioned previously, the forecasting for the GNP and population variables is performed first. The derived values for the next years are then used in Table 1
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) VALUES FOR ESKIS xEHIR CITY, 19952009 (GDP in million Turkish lira) Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 GDP 0.089 0.178 0.334 0.649 0.950 Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 GDP 1.489 2.159 3.206 4.164 5.120 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 GDP 5.944 6.947 7.723 8.707 8.738

AN ANALYSIS OF ELECTRICITY & THE STATE Figure 1

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) VALUES FOR ESKIS xEHIR CITY, 19942009 (GDP in million Turkish lira)

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the estimation of electrical demand. In the first step, a simple regression analysis is performed for GNP and population variables, which are dependent upon time, in order to estimate their values for the upcoming years.
Regression Analysis for GNP: The present data about the GNP values should be

observed in order to determine what type of equation will be derived for the Table 2
ESKIS xEHIR CITY POPULATION, 19902009 Year 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Population 641,057 660,843 706,009 Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population 728,374 741,793 755,427

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ESKIS xEHIR CITY POPULATION, 19902009

regression analysis. The graph presented in figure 4 represents the GNP data of Eskis xehir city from 1994 to 2009. As can be observed from figure 4, GNP data show an exponential tendency. Therefore, non-linear regression analysis seems to be more suitable to express GNP data and the model to be used can be written as follows: y = a:bx 13

Table 3
ESKIS xEHIR CITY DISTRIBUTED POPULATION VALUES, 19902009 Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Population 641,057 643,883 646,709 649,535 652,361 655,187 658,013 660,843 675,898 690,953 Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population 706,009 710,482 714,955 719,928 723,901 728,374 732,847 737,320 741,793 755,427

AN ANALYSIS OF ELECTRICITY & THE STATE Figure 3

ESKIS xEHIR CITY DISTRIBUTED POPULATION VALUES, 19902009

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If the logarithm of both sides is taken, the following equation is obtained: lny = lna + x:lnb 14

In this way, our model turns into a linear model. With the method of changing variables, we define the following: lny = Y; lna = A; and x = X As a result, our equation form becomes: Y = A + B:X The coefficients A and B can be calculated as follows: P P P n: XY X Y B = lnb = P 2 P 2 n X X  B:X  A = lna = Y 16 15

17 18

For our case, A and B are calculated as 690.701 and 0.3453, respectively. Thus, a and b can be determined by taking inverse logarithm of A and B as 0 and 1.4124, respectively. Since a value is found as approximately 0, the exponential model is found to be unsuitable for the GNP data. As an alternative, we can use a linear regression

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ESKIS xEHIR CITY GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (GNP) VALUES, 19942009 (GNP in million Turkish lira)

model since there seems to be a linear relationship between GNP and time when we observe the data between the years 1999 and 2008. When the linear regression model is applied, the B value can be calculated as: P P P n: XY X Y = 3:26655 19 B= P 2 P 2 n X X As the next step, the A value of the linear regression equation is calculated as:  B:X  = 6; 534:499 A=Y 20

As a result, we can write the following linear regression equation for the estimation of GNP for the upcoming years: Y = 6; 534:499 + 3:26655X 21

However, the equation found for GNP represents an increase of 3.26655 million Turkish liras per year. When the present GNP data are taken into consideration, we find that this situation is not consistent with the real data. We can see from figure 4 that the GNP value increases linearly with years and that the GNP value for the year 2009 is nearly the same as that for the year 2008.

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The reason for this stagnation was the economic crisis of 2008. For these reasons, the long-term trend of the GNP values is linear similar to the long-term tendency of the conjuncture oscillation. From this point the a and b values can be calculated as 1,756.47 and 0.879, respectively. Finally, the regression equation for the estimation of GNP values can be expressed as follows: Y = 1;756:47 + 0:879:X 22

Regression Analysis for the Population Parameter: Similar to the GNP estimation process, regression analysis is used in the forecasting of the population variable for the upcoming six years. The available population data for Eskis xehir city from 1990 to 2009 are illustrated in figure 5. The trend of the present population data is mostly linear as can be observed from figure 5. Thus, the linear regression model is chosen to derive the population equation as follows:

Y = A + B:X Using the available population data the coefficients for B and A are P P P n: XY X Y = 6; 433 B= P 2 P 2 n X X  B: X  = 12; 170; 509 A=Y

23

24 25

Finally, the following linear equation for the population of Eskis xehir city is derived: Y = 12;170; 509 + 6; 433:X Table 4
EXPECTED GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (GNP) VALUES FOR ESKIS xEHIR CITY, 20102015 (in million Turkish lira) Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 GNP 10.320 11.199 12.078 12.957 13.836 14.715

26

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ESKIS xEHIR CITY POPULATION GROWTH, 19902009

Using this equation, the estimated population values of Eskis xehir city for 2010 to 2015 are calculated and tabulated in table 5.

Conclusions and Recommendations Several models are used for the estimation of electrical peak load. In scenario I, the electrical demand values are forecasted using the past available data for the Table 5
EXPECTED POPULATION VALUES FOR ESKIS xEHIR CITY, 20102015 Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Population 759,821 766,254 772,687 779,120 785,553 791,986

AN ANALYSIS OF ELECTRICITY & THE STATE Table 6

SCENARIO I: ESTIMATED ELECTRICAL PEAK LOAD FOR ESKIS xEHIR BETWEEN 20102015 Estimated Electrical Peak Load (in megawatt-hours) 1,705,509 1,884,595 2,078,655 2,287,691 2,511,703 2,750,689 Estimated Gross National Product (in million Turkish lira) 10.320 11.199 12.078 12.957 13.836 14.715

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Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Estimated Population 759,821 766,254 772,687 779,120 785,553 791,986

years between 1999 and 2009. In scenario II, the curve that represents the electrical consumption between 1999 and 2009 is derived using the Minitab program, and the electrical consumption values obtained from the equation of this curve are used instead of the real values. The most appropriate model for scenario I is found as (Quadratic Model 4):
2 Y = 82; 463; 823 108; 225:X1 + 18; 100:X2 1 + 229:X2 0:000157:X2 27

Using the derived equation, the electrical demand for the city between 2010 and 2015 are calculated and given in table 6. As the result of the analyses performed for scenario II, the most appropriate model is found as
2 Y = 20; 984; 416 + 29;203:X1 + 2;270:X2 1 60:8:X2 + 0:000045:X2

28

The electrical consumption of Eskis xehir city is estimated with this model as tabulated in table 7. Table 7
SCENARIO II: ESTIMATED ELECTRICAL PEAK LOAD FOR ESKIS xEHIR BETWEEN 20102015 Estimated Electrical Peak Load (in megawatt-hours) 1,310,192 1,429,449 1,555,937 1,689,658 1,830,612 1,978,797 Estimated Gross National Product (in million Turkish lira) 10.320 11.199 12.078 12.957 13.836 14.715 Estimated Population 759,821 766,254 772,687 779,120 785,553 791,986

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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According to the results of both scenarios, it is foreseen that electrical demand of Eskis xehir city will be increasing every year through 2015. There is a strong relationship between economic growth and electrical demand in developing countries. Electrical energy usage in these states is behind that of international standards. However, the demand for electrical energy grows with industrialization, increasing income levels, and the spread of electrical household appliances. The flexibility coefficient, which shows the relationship between energy utilization and economic growth, has been calculated in recent years for developed and developing countries and it is seen that this coefficient is approximately 1, especially in the case of developing nations. If the flexibility coefficient is 1, it means that when the growth of the economy is 1 percent, general energy demand also will increase by 1 percent. In developing countries and cities, as industrialization accelerates more energy will be consumed. The lack of efficient technological equipment and in the energy service sector results in high energy utilization per unit of output. The electrical energy for Eskis xehir city is supplied from its own and other cities hydroelectric power plants and transformer stations. Electrical energy other than that generated by its own power plants is an economic loss for the city since there is a considerable payment for this energy. Although this situation does not create a serious problem now, there is a potential threat because of the possible crises in locations from where the needed electricity is bought today. The relationship between electrical energy and GNP is stronger than that between general energy and GNP. Hence, the flexibility coefficient based on the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption is generally higher than 1. Conversely, the flexibility coefficient in developed nations is generally less than 1. The energy consumed per unit of output, which can be described as the energy utilization intensity, is higher in developing countries than developed ones. Economic growth rates as well as economic inefficiency play significant roles in this situation. Being a city that generates its own energy needs completely would be very advantageous for Eskis xehir when viewed from this perspective. Eskis xehir city grows every year in terms of its total area. Thus, there is a considerable need to build new hydroelectric, wind, or conventional power plants. Although the investment costs of these power plants are considerable, these costs can be recovered within a few years and Eskis xehir city can be an urban center that is capable of producing and meeting its own energy needs.
NOTES
1 Huvaz, Examining the Sectoral Energy Use in the Turkish Economy V. S x. Ediger and O (19802000) with the Help of Decomposition Analysis, Energy Conversion and Management, vol. 47, no. 6 (2006), pp. 73245.

zalp, E. G. Kant, Use of Artificial Neural Networks for A. So zen, E. Arcaklog lu, M. O Mapping the Solar Potential in Turkey, Applied Energy, vol. 77 (2004), pp. 27386.
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10

Y. Aslan et al., op. cit. F. Aksel, op. cit.

_ Yu T. Yalc xno z, Y. Karadeniz, and I. lgesi ic xin elektrik yu cel, Nig de bo k tahmini, ELECO 2000 International Conference on Electrical and Electronics Engineering (Bursa, Turkey: ELECO, 2000), pp. 437; S. C. Chapra and R. P. Canale, op. cit.; and Y. Aslan et al., op. cit.
16 17 18 19

Y. Aslan et al., op. cit. Ibid. T. Yalc xno z et al., op. cit. T. Yalc xno z et al., op. cit.; S. C. Chapra and R. P. Canale, op. cit.; and Y. Aslan et al., op. cit.