6.

8 Tobys Trucking Company determined that

the distance traveled per truck per year is normally
distributed, with a mean of 50 thousand miles and a standard
deviation of 12 thousand miles.
a. What proportion of trucks can be expected to travel
between 34 and 50 thousand miles in a year?
b. What percentage of trucks can be expected to travel
either below 30 or above 60 thousand miles in a year?
c. How many miles will be traveled by at least 80% of the
trucks?

= 50.0 = 12.0
*Let X be Distance traveled
per truck*

a) P(34.0 < X < 50.0)
= 0.5 - 0.0918
= 0.4082
* find - 1.33 and 0.0 from
Z table *






b) P(30.0 > X > 60.0)
= 1 - (0.797 - 0.0475)
= 1 - 0.7492
= 0.2508
= 25.08%









c) ? M, at least () 80%
* this is right area of curve*
Find 0.2 from inside the
Z table (search all values).
Z appears to be 0.84 (take
the closest value).
Then use Z formula to find
M (substitute X with M).

Ans: 39,920 miles

50.0 X 34.0
Z
0 -1.33
50.0 X 30.0
Z 0 -1.67
60.0
0.83
Z
34.0
= 34.0 - 50.0

12.0
= - 1.33
Z
60.0
= 60.0 - 50.0

12.0
= 0.83
Z
30.0
= 30.0 - 50.0

12.0
= - 1.67
50.0 X M?
Z 0 -0.84
-0.84

= M - 50.0
12.0
M = 39.92
Normal distribution is used for population (continuous).
It will ask for probability between an interval.
Probability of 1 point is equal to 0.
The sampling distribution of the mean is the distribution of all possible
sample means if you select all possible samples of a given size.
If the population is normal, the sampling distribution is also normally
distributed.
is continuous.








The height of Kaplan Students has mean 1.7m and standard deviation 0.2m.
If a sample of 40 students are selected, what is the probability that the mean
height is between 1.6 and 1.75m?
Let X be the height of Kaplan students.
= 1.7 = 0.2 n = 40









* find 1.57 and 3.16 from
Z table *






( )
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2
2
, ~ , ~
n
N X N X
o
o
X
n

) X (
Z

=
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2
, ~
n
N X
o

30 but
normal not X
> n
Central Limit Theorem
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2
40
2 . 0
, 7 . 1 ~ N X
1.7 1.6
Z 0 -3.16
X 1.75
1.58
n

) X (
Z

=
1.58
40
0.2
1.7) (1.75
Z
1.75
=

=
0.942
0.00079 - 0.9429
1.75) X P(1.6
=
=
< <
3.16 -
40
0.2
1.7) (1.6
Z
1.6
=

=
Although the true mean may or may not be in this interval, 95% of intervals formed
in this manner will contain the true mean.
Therefore, 95% of all samples of boxes have sample means that will result in
intervals that include the population mean.

Confidence Interval
Confidence
level
Z
/2
value
90% 0.1 1.645
95% 0.05 1.96
99% 0.01 2.575
o
Testing of
known unknown
n

Z X
/2 o

t test Z test
n
S
t X
2 / o

normal X normal X
df = n-1
Diagnostic imaging department conducted a quality improvement project with the
objective of reducing the turnaround time for stress tests. Turnaround time is
defined as the time from when a test is ordered to when the radiologist signs off
on the test results. Initially, the mean turnaround time for a stress test was 72
hours. After incorporating changes into the stress-test process, the quality
improvement team collected a sample of 60 turnaround times. In this sample, the
mean turnaround time was 42 hours, with a standard deviation of 7 hours.
a. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the population mean
turnaround time.
b. Interpret the interval constructed in (a).
c. Do you think the quality improvement project was a success?

a. unknown (S = 7hrs) Population normal X normal normal
= 42 hours n = 60 df = 60 - 1 = 59 t
0.025

Z
0.025
= 1.196

30 but
normal not X
> n
X
X
for CI 95%
1.7712 42
7
96 . 1 42
2 /
=
=
n n
S
t X
o
43.771 40.229 s s
c. Yes, the original was 72 hours while the current estimated is below and do
not include 72.
Discrete Probability
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
If A and B are independent, then
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)
If one pair is not independent, all is not independent.
Binomial Probability
Mean = n
Variance
2
= n(1 - )
Standard deviation =
n = fixed number of observations (not sample size)
= probability for the event of interest occurring
P(X) : probability of X success occurred in n trials
Poisson Distribution
Mean =
Variance
2
=
Standard deviation =
= mean number of success
X: number of success within period
* increases or decreases together with period*
) 1 ( t t n

~ Null Hypothesis, H
0
always contains =, or
~ Alternative Hypothesis, H
1
is opposite of H
0

~ Tail sees H
1

Example: The average number of TV sets in U.S.
homes is equal to three (i.e. = 3)
Conclusion:
1. Reject H
0
, accept H
1
2. Do not reject H
0
, cannot accept H
1
tailed) - (two
3 : H
3 : H
1
0
=
=

tailed) - (left
3 : H
3 : H
1
0
<
>

tailed) - (right
3 : H
3 : H
1
0
>
s

X
Z
STAT

=
n
S
X
t
STAT

=
Possible Hypothesis Test Outcomes
Actual Situation
Decision H
0
True H
0
False
Do Not
Reject H
0

No Error
Probability 1 -
Type II Error
Probability
Reject H
0
Type I Error
Probability
No Error
Probability 1 -
Test the claim, at 0.01 significant level, that the
population mean of a bar of chocolate is 250g. You
may assume that the weight is normally distributed
with a population standard deviation of 30g.
A sample of 20 bars of chocolate has shown that
the average weight is 240g.
Step 1: State the Hypothesis
Claim: The population mean of a bar of chocolate is
250g. H
0
:

= 250g (Claim) H
1
: 250g (two-tailed)
Step 2: Specify level of significance
= 0.01
Step 3: Which test? Why? = 30g (known)
X normal => normal use Z test
Step 4: Determine the critical values
(draw picture)
Step 5: Compute
n = 20, = 240g, = 30g




Step 6: Conclusion: Do not reject H
0
cannot accept H
1
We do not reject that the population mean of a bar
of chocolate is 250g.

X
Z 0 -2.575 2.575
005 . 0 2 / = o
X
n

X
Z
STAT

=
4910 . 1
20
30
250 240
=

The SMRT claim that the mean waiting time for train
during the morning peak hour is less than 5 minutes.
A sample of 20 students were interviewed and their mean
waiting time was 5.2 minutes with a sample standard
deviation of 0.8 minutes.
Test the appropriate hypothesis at = 0.01.
You may assume that the waiting time for train is normally
distributed.
Step 1: Claim : the mean waiting time is less than 5
Minutes. (i.e. < 5)
H
0
: 5 H
1
: < 5 (Claim) (left-tailed)
Step 2: = 0.01
Step 3: unknown (S=0.8), X normal use t-test
Step 4:




Step 5:



Step 6: Do not reject H
0
, cannot accept H
1
.
We cannot accept that the mean waiting time is less
than 5 minutes.

Summary of one-tailed tests
~ The null hypothesis, H
0
, represents the status quo or the
current belief in a situation.
~ The alternative hypothesis, H
1
, is the opposite of the null
hypothesis and represents a research claim or specific
inference you would like to prove.
~ If you reject the null hypothesis, you have statistical
proof that the alternative hypothesis is correct.
~ If you do not reject the null hypothesis, you have failed to
prove the alternative hypothesis. The failure to prove the
alternative hypothesis, however, does not mean that you
have proven the null hypothesis.
~ The null hypothesis always refers to a specified value of
the population parameter (such as ), not to a sample
statistic (such as

t 0 -2.539
0.01
n
S
X
t
STAT

= 12 . 1
20
0.8
5 2 . 5
=

df = 20 - 1
) X