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  • Technological Life Cycle: The S-Curved Miracle

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    Sarvraj Singh Rt
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    The document discusses technological life cycles and innovation. It describes how the performance of technologies follows an S-curve pattern over time, with emerging, growth, mature, and decline stages. This S-curve pattern is known as the technological life cycle. The document also examines how technological performance relates to market value and adoption rates over multiple generations of a technology. It analyzes the interactions between technology and markets, including science/technology pushes and market pulls, and how innovation and diffusion of innovations occurs.

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    management of technology

    Original Title

    MOT-5(93-2)

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    The document discusses technological life cycles and innovation. It describes how the performance of technologies follows an S-curve pattern over time, with emerging, growth, mature, and decline stages. This S-curve pattern is known as the technological life cycle. The document also examines how technological performance relates to market value and adoption rates over multiple generations of a technology. It analyzes the interactions between technology and markets, including science/technology pushes and market pulls, and how innovation and diffusion of innovations occurs.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    10 views12 pages

    Technological Life Cycle: The S-Curved Miracle

    Uploaded by

    Sarvraj Singh Rt
    The document discusses technological life cycles and innovation. It describes how the performance of technologies follows an S-curve pattern over time, with emerging, growth, mature, and decline stages. This S-curve pattern is known as the technological life cycle. The document also examines how technological performance relates to market value and adoption rates over multiple generations of a technology. It analyzes the interactions between technology and markets, including science/technology pushes and market pulls, and how innovation and diffusion of innovations occurs.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 12

    Technological Life Cycle

    The S-curved miracle

    The performance of a technology has a recognized pattern over time . If properly understood, can be of great use in strategic planning. Neglecting the pattern might lead to losses.

    The S-curved technological progress


    Natural bottleneck Emerging stage new invention Technological Progress stage application innovation Mature stage market penetration

    Technological performance index

    Decline stage

    time

    Technological market value


    Market value Critical stage

    time

    Multiple-generation technologies
    Technological performance index

    Generation II

    Envelope route of TLC Generation III

    Generation I

    time

    Interaction between Technology and Market

    Science-technology push

    Driven by scientific discovery and inventions New market definition and new industry creation Driven by the transformation of demographics User-involved innovation

    Market pull

    Market value of Product life cycle


    Market value Time lag relative to technological innovation

    time

    Product/process innovation
    Innovation rate Process innovation

    Product innovation

    New wave innovation

    Chaotic stage

    Dominate design stage

    Time

    Diffusion of innovation

    Comparative advantage Compatible with existed behavior/value Relative complexity Testability for adoption Visibility of performance

    Competition of diffusion
    100% Cumulative Adoption rate Quick diffusion and dominate the market Delaying diffusion and diminish the competitiveness

    time

    Bandwagon effect for quick diffusion

    Adoption rate

    Quick diffusion by mass communication


    Delaying diffusion by means of word-of-mouth promotion

    time

    Reference

    Rogers, Evertt M. (1995), Diffusion of Innovation, Fourth edition, Free Press, New York. Utterback, James M. (1994), Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA.

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