INSIDE THIS WEEK: TECHNOLOGY QUARTERLY Pe MEM CT Be) ey The ea eee Le ya conom i NY t ESE Mss Why has the world stopped warming? PS reretey oes BU Cre ieee ENE Repene r UeOMEGA RS eae THE DARK SIDE OF THE MOON RC one eee Cee ea with their own eyes. The black ceramic [ZrO:] Co-Axial Speedmaster salutes CO eae ah eee Cea ei er cake it pays homage to the Speedmaster Professional chronographs worn by every PSR niente sc A et hs una anat a es eee Ce Ren ge ae ee ey eensTHE WORLD'S FIRST CORE SWITCH THAT SO QUICKLY ADAPTS TO YOUR CHANGING NEEDS Huawei Agile Switch 512700. More flexibility. Constantly evolving. Huawe Age Switch has a highspeed ENP chip with fly Agile evolution: programmable architecture to define your own made,» Network evohes from being hardare defined ta being ‘ehavers and lookup akgorthns-malengitpesbletaprovde software defined 2 talloed sence upto times fase. + Business goes ne more rapidly ard investment is reduced ‘Agile business: “This sno time for business as usual. + *Senvice an the go” for consistent user experience The chalenges that enterprises fae today cannot be soe bythe usual ansers orth the sual partners ‘Agile management; The eats, more and more business problems ace + 8g data analysis sypportng network-widesecuty nec aoe colaboraion| + VsibieP qualty fr more ecient network management HUAWEI ENTERPRISE ICT SOLUTIONS A BETTER WAY + Wired and wireless network convergence for simpler Fd out ow a huawei.com network management HUAWEI Es‘Onthe cover: The West can punish Russia forits belligerence in Ukraine, but only fitis prepared to pay a price: leader, page 9. Russia stirs uptrouble in eastern Ukraine, page 19.The West lacks strong response, page 24, Supporting Ukraine's economy will not be easy oF ‘cheap, page 23. Germany ‘needs ta do more than work the phones: Charlemagne, ‘page 28. What Obama has got ‘ight, and wrong: Lexington, page 4o The Economist ontine Daly analysand opinion from uri9 bogs, plusaudioand video content, debates anda daily chart zonomist.com/bloge E-mail: newslettersand mobile edition conomist.com/emait Print edition: avallable online by Zpm London time each Thursday Ezonomist.com/peint ‘Audio edition: available online ‘todownload each Friday conomist.com/auoedition ie Volume 80 Number 8877 item 7 The world this week Leaders 9 Crisis in Ukraine kidnapped by the Kremlin 10 Business in emerging markets Submerging hopes 111 China's restless west The burden of empice 11 African demography Fertility treatment 12 European bank rescues Cyprus one year later Letters 13 On Ukraine, Scotland, oceans, India, San Francisco, Lego Briefing 19 Ukraine The end of the beginning? 21 The international reaction Sines and sevens 23 The economic battleground ‘tough cal Europe 25 France's government Hollande mulls a reshuffle 26 Germany's pensions Wrong direction 26 Turkish politics Anatolia loves Erdogan 27 Spain's press ‘shrinking order 28 Charlemagne Germany and Ukraine Britain 29 Defence strategy Nissing in action, 30 Gangster memoirs Gift ofthe grab 30 The film industry Toolittle space 31 Bagehot great place to bea spy Middle East and Africa 32 African demography The dividend is delayed 33 Diplomacy in the Gulf No oneis happy 34 Jordan and Palestine AAkingdom of two halves United States 35 Solareneray Bet your bottom dollar 36 The president's budget Sliding away 37 The IRS and political speech Leviand the sos 37 Capital punishment Death for the mentally disabled 38 Ohio's law against untruth Isitwise to criminalise lies? 38 Abortion taw The 20-week limit 39 Florida's snowbirds Achilly welcome 40 Lexington The Ukraine blame-game Technology Quarterly After page 40, ‘The Americas 41 iPhonenomics One phone, many countries 42 Bello Deadlock in Venezuela 43 Quebec's separatists Unspoken desire 43 Wage talksin Argentina Class war Asia 444 North Korea Looking for improvements 45 Nuclear power in Japan Fire‘emup 46 Sri Lanka Bring up the bodies 46 Nepal Inthe family 47 Thailand's protests Dismantling barricades Pope Francis’s first year How a simple, modest manis ‘approaching the complex task ‘of leading his church, pages1 Terrorin China's west The Communist Party must change'tspoicestowards minorities leader, page. Abrutalatackshoeks China, pages ‘African demography Birth Fates are not falling in Africa as fastasthey did in Asia, More contraception would help: leader;page ts. Hopes that Africa’s dramatic, population bulgemay peed Up prosperity mayhavebeen ‘exaggerated, page 32 > Contents continues overleafTT CPs China Gok MRE 48 Terror attackin Kunming Darkday 49 China's parliament The smog of war 49 America’s ambassador No love ost 50 Banyan Murkinessin Hong Kong ra Intemational page 10, Western irmshave 51 Pope Francs’s first year piledinto emerging markets in Faith, hope—and how the past decade. Now comes much change the eckoning, page 4 Business 54 Multinationals in emerging markets Emerge, splurge, purge 56 Chevron and Ecuador Courtroom drama 57 Distributed generation Devolving power 58 Clean technology in China Red light, green light ‘58 Women and work The glass-ceiling index Climate pause The slowdown intemperaturerises overthe 59 Schumpeter past 15 years goes from being Unpacking Lego tunexplained to overexplained, page 66 Finance and economics 160 Cyprus one year on Injured island 61 Buttonwood ‘revolution in economics 62 Civilservants and austerity The times they aren't a-changin’ (62 Chinese bonds Not so sunny (63 Flood insurance Waves of problems ye | | Prostate controversy Anew ‘Science and technology 66 Globalwarming Who pressed the pause button? 67 The search for acure for AIDS Iitafn'tbroke. 68 Inflated ideas Reviving airships 68 Virology The Siberia strain Books and arts 69 Prostate screening Furious debate 70 English papists More turbulent priests 70 Edmund White The boy's own story 71 Lorrie Moore’s new fiction Hearts of darkness 174 Return of “Cosmos” MrUniverse 72 Maria Schneider's classical jazz Defying categories 76 Economic and financial indicators Statistics on 42 econamies, plus our monthly poll of forecasters Obituary 178 Mike Parker passion for type Technology Quarterly With articles on the latest ‘emerging technologies including 3D-printing human tissue, drone hips, the future ‘of chipmaking, conductive fibres, making things with Viruses and much more, after page40 ‘Subscription service Fercaanect tse oe ‘ig talon ar st teal allen pedir: ‘eee eh aca eo Sutscigtn tort yar (1805) Patt Crom beta sees her tpe(e 0 oe Sout 1700 aad An sees Principal commercial fice: 2 stomesssuet London Sek A ‘ecezove207000 750214 Avene lr Mwah, NO Tctzmsasetoo bookon the furious debate 663 Rigging currency markets ‘Ehsan ‘overscreening for prostate Bank, x thyself Teceseases tes cancer, page69 64 Gold erences uestions over the (henge ba Fr ste, petal fava SonfancscanSgoee 65 Free exchange Theenceand future currency PEFC vnaceaecur Trossss dn QrecycleBUR RRL 1d Politics Russia took defacto control of Ukraine's southern autono- ‘mous egion of Crimea, as unidentified Russian troops grabbed command of key strategic points following he upheaval that accompanied Viktor Yanukovych's ousting as Ukrainian president. The {oops surrounded military basesin the majority Russian speaking egion, as well asthe airport. The Crimean parlia- ‘ment voted to leave Ukraine andjoin Russia, and to putthe issue toareferendumon Marchasth, Russia's foreign minister, Sergel Lavroy,met hiscounter- paris from America and Eu- rope in Paristo try toresolve the crisis. America pushed for independent monitors in Crimeaand direct talks between Kiev and Moscow. Earlier the European Union offered en billion (sbillion) of aid to Ukraine and froze the assets of several prominent Ukrainians. Cypruscameastep closerto receiving the next tanche ofits xobillion ($1 billion) bail-out from the ru and mmr, when the Cypriot parliament passed an amended bill that will privatise utility companies, ‘with the unionsgiven alarger sayin thesale, Britain's Labour Party weak- ened itsinsttutional inks to unions by. amongother things, changing the way itselectsits Ieadertoa simple one-person- ‘one-vote system. Ed Miliband Labour's leader risked the tunions’ire by puting forward the proposals: he won the leadership in 20.0 largely because of theirsupport. Secret recordings were posted ona website of Nicolas ‘sarkozy discussing the sack ing of ministers when he was president of France. The cordings were taken by afor: ‘meradviser, causing outrage in ‘MrSarko2y's centre right party. Morerevelations will be drip- fed to the media incoming weeks, possibly hurting Mr Sarkozy’schances of a come ‘back forthe presidency in 2017. Only the beginning ‘The White House presented its budget request forthe next fiscal year to Congress. The blueprintasksfor more spend. ingon programmes o reduce inequality such as $76 billion fon child education andan expansion of the Earned In come Tax Credit, Next year’s budget deficits forecast at $564 billion, or 32% of ove, ‘The White House also an- nounced yetanother delay for Obamacare by allowing Americans to keep insurance that doesnot comply with the new tulesfor two more years, ‘This will stop insurers cancel ling individuals’ health plans just before the mid-term elec tions, which would have been bad news for the Democrats. ‘ea Party backed candidates ‘mostly lost outin Republican congressional primariesin ‘Texas. In the governor’srace Greg Abbott above) won the Republican primary and Wendy Davis claimed victory inthe Democratic one. They will face each otherin Novem- ber'selection. Over here! While Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, wason avisitto America, his spokes: ‘men boosted his campaign againstan American interim eal with fran by announcing ‘that Israel's navy had captured rockets with a range of 200km (G24 miles) that had apparently been dispatched from Damascus via Iran. They were said to have been heading for PortSudan and then othe Gaza Strip, which abuts Israel, Inone ofthe worst rows among Gulfstatesin recent years, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates ‘withdrew their ambassadors from Qatarafteralleging hat thegasrich Gulf tate, which hhas supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egyptand elsewhere, had been meddling initsneighbours' internal affairs. The Qataris expressed “regret and surprise”, Field Marshal Abdel Fattah, al Sisithe power behind Egypt's government, came close toannouncing his cand- dacy for president, by tellinga ‘gathering ata military acad: emy that" procedures will be finalised over the coming days... eannotturn my back ‘when the majority wantsme torun forpresident.” Gunmen suspected of belong ing to Nigeria's Boko Haram. Islamist terrorist group ram- paged through villages in the north-east ofthe country, killing scores of people over several days. The legacy Venezuela marked the first anniversary of the death of “Hugo Chavez. President Nico: as Maduro lauded Chaver's achievementsin aceremony in ‘Caracas; opposition protesters continued with theirrolling demonstrations. Mr Maduro broke off ties with Panama, which had requested a debate atthe Organisation of Ameri- ‘ean States on the politcal unrestin Venezuela. Pauline Marois, whose Parti ‘Québécoishas ied a minority government in Quebec since 2012, called asnap election for April 7th. With polls suggesting ‘the rg will win a majority,the question of the provinee’s secession from Canada could soon bebackonthe table. ion Ifatfirst you don'tsucceed, quit Johnny Araya, the candi dateof the governing centrist party, bendoned campaign- Ing for Costa Rica's presi- dential election. Heisheavily trailing the lefts Lui Guillermo Solisina run-off vvoteon April th, Horror attack nd a= is El assatats wieling Knventled ss popland inuedsboutemanatack sks eavotonts tan 2ciynunshavestm hina Oil bamedsepusise ermine Uigrretngrosp Uighur sims te nethncser epoch Tang mnyotwon ntan Indeenden sates Thesan amas Site Depeinentdesebedtne attackas an act of terrorism. Atleast people were killed in anattackatacourtinIslam- bad, Pakistan's capital. Gun ‘men burstinto the building and opened fire before suicide: bombers detonated explo- sives. The assault came after the Pakistani Taliban pledged month-long ceasefire and the government said itwould Suspend airstrikes against militants. That deal came under yet more pressure when atleast six Pakistani soldiers were killed ina bombing, In Afghanistan atleastfive ‘Afghan soldiers died after beingeaught up ina Nato air strike. NATO iscarryingoutan investigation. India’s election commission announced hata general election will ake placein nine phases between April th and Mayaath, with votescounted on May 16th. India’s &igm voters willmake this the larg estelectionevertotakeplace. »»