StabilityofMarriage&DivorceRates

EricMcNamara PHIL1120002 April22,2014

Intodaysworld,itseemsmoreandmorepeoplearediscountingtheinstitutionof marriage.Weveprobablyallheardthathalfofallmarriagesaredoomedtofail.Buthowmuchof thisistrue?Ismarriageirrelevantintodayssociety?Focussingonfactsandstatistics,Ill explainwheremarriageanddivorceratescomefrom,thehistoryoftheserates,currenttrends, otherfactorsthataffectdivorce,andwhatwemightdotohelp. Beforewestartdivingintothemarriageanddivorceratesthemselves,itsimportantto understandwherethesenumberscomefrom,andhowtheyrepresented.Therearethreemain waysthestatisticsaregiven,startingwithwhatsknownastheRatioMeasureofDivorce.For thisfigure,yousimplytakethenumberofdivorcesinagivenyear,andcompareittothenumber ofmarriages.Usingthismethod,wecansaythereareroughlytwiceasmanymarriages:2.1 millioncomparedto872,000divorces,accordingtomostrecentCensusdata(Strong,Cohen 477).ThenextmethodforratestatisticsistheCrudeDivorceRate.Here,marriageanddivorce ratesarestructuredasacertainnumberoutof1,000people.Forexample,2013datashows thatintheUS,therewere6.8marriagesper1,000totalpopulationand3.6divorcesper1,000 totalpopulation,showinganapproximate50%(MarriageandDivorce).Thismethodisthemost widelyused(indeed,manyofthestatsinthisreportfollowthismethod),butitdoeshaveits problems.Themainissueiswithevery1,000peoplementioned,itcanbeanybody,including: unmarried,children,theelderly,thealreadydivorced,andsoon.Becauseofthis,thestatistics arehighlydependentonage,marriedvs.singlepopulation,andchangesinthepopulationoutof thoseincluded(Strong,Cohen477)).Thelastmethodformarriageanddivorceratesisknown astheRefinedDivorceRate.Itisconsideredthemostusefuldivorcemeasure,takinginto accountthenumberofdivorcesinagivenyearforevery1,000marriages(measuredbywomen 15andolder).In2005,therefinedratewas16.7divorcesper1,000marriages,thelowestrefined rateinnearly40years(Strong,Cohen477).Thesemethodsareimportanttounderstand,

becausethereissomecontroversyoverwhichmethodbestrepresentsthedata.Also, dependingonwhichmethodisused,thedivorceratemightseembetterorworsethanitactually is:theRatioMeasureandCrudeDivorceratesupportthe1in2marriageswillfailidea, whereasthetheRefinedrateismoreoptimistic. Nowthatweknowhowthestatisticsarecalculatedandwhattheymean,letsseehow marriageanddivorcerateshavechangedinthelasthundredyearsorso.Startingwithmarriage: inthe1920s,99outofevery1,000womenweregettingmarried.Thisnumberdeclinedinthe depressionerato88per1,000.AfterWorldWarII,therewasamassivegrowthinmarriages, movingto143per1,000people.Sincethen,numbershavebeensteadilydeclining,leadingupto thecurrent6.8marriagesper1,000people(Shiono,Quinn).Inregardstothedivorcerate:the 1960ssawanincrease,andshotupevenmoreinthe70sand80s.Divorcerateshittheirpeak in1981,at5.3divorcesperevery1,000people.Numbershavedroppedsincethen,tothe current3.6divorcesforevery1,000(Pekara). Withthecurrentmarriageanddivorceratesinmind,severaltrendscanbefound.Within thelastseveralyears,bothmarriageanddivorcerateshavebeendeclining.Themainreasonfor thisisthatnotasmanypeoplearegettingmarriedinthefirstplace.Thenumberofunmarried peoplelivingtogethersince1970hasincreasedtenfold(Pekara).Thedivorceratedropisalso duetoanincreaseincollegeeducatedpeoplewithstableincomes,leadingtomoresatisfying relationships.Anotherrelatedreasonistheageatwhichpeoplearegettingmarriedisrising, whichreducesriskofdivorce(Gaspard). Anothertrendintodayssocietyismarriageisbecomingviewedasoptional,especially forwomen.Todayswomenarebecomingmoreindependentandgettingbetteremployment opportunities.Bothmenandwomenarestartingtoquestionwhethermarriageisnecessary.In fact,51%ofAmericansweremarriedin2011,comparedto72%in1960(Gaspard).

Thereareseveralimportantfactorsthatcanaddtothesuccess,orbringaboutthe failure,ofamarriage.Havingchildrendoesseemtoaddtomaritalcommitment,asdivorcerates ofthosewithchildrenare40%lowerthanthosewithout(Irvin).Divorceratescanalsodiffer basedonyourfamilysmarriagehistory.AccordingtomarriageexpertPaulAmato,ifyour parentsdivorced,youretwiceaslikelytodivorceasanadult,comparedtothosefromintact families.Ifthehusbandandthewifebothcomefromdivorcedfamilies,theirownriskfordivorce triples(Gaspard).Italsoseemsthatafterdivorce,remarriageisntmucheasier:second marriageshavea60%divorcerisk,whilethirdmarriageriskincreasesto73%.Incontrast,if yourparentsarehappilymarried,yourchancefordivorcedecreasesby14%(Irvin). Afterviewingthesetrendsandstatistics,itseasytobecomediscouragedtowards marriage.Ismarriageasanideaonthewayout?Onestudyshowstheopposite:morethan80% ofAmericansstillbelievemarriageisnecessaryanddesirable(Strong,Cohen477).So,if marriageisstillsomethingmanybelievein,whataresomewaystoimproveitandreducethe divorcenumbers?Oneofthebestwaysistoavoidgettingmarriedtooyoung.Manyexperts believeholdingoffonmarriageuntilage25isbest,aspeoplewillhavehadtimetomatureand getabetterpictureoftheirgoalsandinterests(Gaspard).ThisideaisenforcedbyMegJay,a clinicalpsychologist,whostressesthatourpersonalitychangesmostinourearly20s.So,for instance,ifonegetsmarriedat18,manychangescanoccurinpersonalityandgoals,possibly leadingtodiscontentanddivorce.Anotherhelpfulideaispremarriagecounseling.Though theresastigmathatcounselingisonlyforcoupleswithissues,premarriagecounselingcan helpspotrelationshipproblemareasandgettoknowtheotherspersonality,helpingintimesof conflictandothersituations.Itsalsohelpfultohavearealisticviewofmarriage.Keepinmind, manythingswontchangewithmarriage,soitsimportanttoworkmostthingsoutoraccept thembeforehand.

Whatcanbegatheredfromallofthisinformation?Yes,divorceratesareslowlyfalling, butsoaremarriagerates.Though,studiesshowmostpeoplestillbelieveinmarriage,myself included.Ifwestartthinkingofmarriageasaseriouscommitmentwithresponsibilities,thereare waystohelpdecreasethedivorcerateevenfurther.Hopefully,byspreadingtheadvicegivenby manyexperts,wecanimproveourownrelationshipsandmarriages.

WorksCited
Gaspard,Terry.TheSurprisingReasonDivorceRatesAreDecliningAcrossAmerica.Your Tango.TangoMediaCorporation,n.d.Web.6Apr.2014. <http://www.yourtango.com/experts/terrygaspard/whyarewesointeresteddivorcerate s>. Irvin,McKinley.32ShockingDivorceStatistics.McKinleyIrvin.N.p.,30Oct.2012.Web.6Apr. 2014.<http://www.mckinleyirvin.com/blog/divorce/32shockingdivorcestatistics/>. MarriageandDivorce.CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention.CentersforDisease ControlandPrevention,21Nov.2013.Web.6Apr.2014. <http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/divorce.htm>. Pekara,MaryAnn.ExaminingtheDeclineDivorceRateintheUnitedStates.TotalDivorce. TotalDivorceLLC.,n.d.Web.6Apr.2014. <http://www.totaldivorce.com/news/articles/society/usdivorcerate.aspx>. Shiono,Patricia,andLindaSandhamQuinn.EpidemiologyofDivorce.TheFutureofChildren. TheTrusteesofPrincetonUniversity,11Feb.2013.Web.6Apr.2014. <http://futureofchildren.org/publications/journals/article/index.xml?journalid=63&articleid= 408&sectionid=2781>. Strong,Bryan,andTheodoreF.Cohen.TheMarriageandFamilyExperience:Intimate RelationshipsinaChangingSociety.Belmont:Wadsworth,2014.Print.