SIXTH EDITION spe ag ae eg 7First published 1991 Second edition 1996 ‘Third edition 2001 Fourth edition 2004 Fifth edition 2009 Sixth edition 2013, by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OXM4 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business (© 1991, 1996, 2001, 2004, 2013 Keith Si ‘© 2009 Keith Smith and David N. Petley ‘The right of Keith Smith to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, llrightsreserved. No part ofthis book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval «ystem, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice Product or corporate names may be trademarks oF registered trademarks, and are wsed only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data ‘A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cateloging in Publication Data A catalog record has been requested for this book ISBN; 978-0-415-68105-9 (hbk) ISBN; 978-0-415-68106-3 (pbk) ISBN; 978-0-203-80530-5 (ebk) ‘Typeset in Minion and Univers by Florence Production Ltd, Stoodleigh, Devon, United Kingdom CopyriContents Listof figures List of plas List of tables List of boxes Preface to thes Preface to the first edition Acknowledgements edition PARTI THE NATURE OF HAZARD 1 Hazard in the environment A. Introduction B_ Whatare environmental hazards? C Hazard, risk and disaster D_ Earlier perspectives E Current views: the complexity paradigm F The organizational context 2 Dimensions of disaster A Introduction B Defining disaster C Measuring disaster: archives D Explaining disaster: time trends E_ Explaining disaster: spatial patterns F Managing disaster xvi xviii xxiy 3 Complexity, sustainability and vulnerability A Introduction B Complexity science C Complexity and disasters D An example: the Bam earthquake E Sustainability and disasters F Vulnerability and resilience G Drivers of vulnerability and disaster 4 Risk assessment and management A The nature of risk B Risk assessment C Risk perception and communication D Risk perception in practice E_ Risk management F The role of information technology 5 Reducing the impacts of disaster A. Scoping the task B Protection: hazard resistance C Mitigation: disaster aid D Mitigation: insurance 46 46 6 2 48 $1 n 8 a 36 %L 96 96 99 106 14vi CONTENTS E Adaptation: preparedness F Adaptation: predictions, forecasts and warnings G Adaptation: land use planning PART Il THE EXPERIENCE AND REDUCTION OF HAZARD 6 Tectonic hazards: earthquakes and tsunamis A Earthquake hazards B Earthquake behaviour € Primary earthquake hazards D Secondary earthquake hazards E Protection F Mitigation G Adaptation 7 Tectonic hazards: volcanoes A Volcanic hazards B The nature of volcanoes, Primary volcanic hazards D Secondary volcanic hazards E Protection F Mitigation G Adaptation 8 Mass movement hazards A. Landslide and avalanche hazards B Landslides Landslides: cause and triggers D Snow avalanches E Protection F Mitigation G Adaptation 9 Severe storm hazards A. Atmospheric hazards B The nature of tropical cyclones € How tropical cyclones develop D Tropical cyclone hazards E_ Severe summer storms F Severe winter storms us 124 127 137 139 139 142 us 48 153 160 164 176 176 179 185 189 193 193 mL 7 251 10 " 12 13 G Protection H Mitigation 1 Adaptation Weather extremes, disease epidemics and wildfires A Introduction B Extreme temperature hazards © The nature of disease epidemics D Infectious diseases and climate E_ Disease hazard reduction F Wildfire hazards G The nature of wildfires H Wildfire hazard reduction Hydrological hazards: floods A Flood hazards B Flood-prone environments C The nature of floods D Protection E Mitigation P Adaptation Hydrological hazards: droughts A. Drought hazards B Types of drought € Causes of drought hazards D Protection E Mitigation F Adaptation Technological hazards A Inteoduction B Thescale and nature of the hazard © An outline of theory D Technological hazards i practice Perception: the transport and nuclear industries Protection i Mitigation Adaptation eis 268 268 270 278 283 286 288 294 299 299 302 309) 318 329 337 337 338 351 358 361 363 385 39) 391 393contents vii 14 Environmental hazards in a E Geophysical paths to disaster 410 changing world 402 F Climate change and environmental A Introduction 402 hezards ae B The globalization of hazard 403 C Environmental change 405 D Air pollution and climate Bibliography 435 change 407 Index a7Figures 1.1 Environmental hazards atthe interface between the natural events system and the hhoman use system 4 1.2 Extreme geophysical events and severe system failures within a framework of global change and sustainabi 8 1.3 A generalized spectrum of environmental hazards from physical to human causes 8 14 A matrix showing possible combinations of physical exposure to hazard and human vulnerability in relation to risk and security 9 1.5 Sensitivity to environmental hazard expressed as a function of annual rainfall and societal tolerance 10 1.6 Relationships between the severity of hazard, probability and risk 2 1.7 Schematic evolution of a drought disaster 13 1.8 The track of two Category-5 hurricanes across Central America 18 2.1 Possible losses and gains in disaster pry 2.2 A disaster-impact pyramid 26 23. Annual number of natural and technological disasters 1975-2009 31 24 — Annual number of Great Natural Catastrophes according to type of event recorded 1930-2009 32 2.5 Annual number of people reported killed by natural and technological disasters 1975-2009 2B 26 Annual total of reported economic losses in natural disasters 1980-2011 34 2.7 Annual total of overall and insured losses from Great Natural Catastrophes recorded 1950-2009 34 2.8 — Annual number of volcanic eruptions and eruptions of size 0.1 km or greater 1790-1990, 35 29 Annual number of Great Weather Catastraphes in meteorological, hydrological and climatological categories recorded 1950-2009 7 Copyrighted materialFIGURES ix 210 241 212 2d 3. 32 33 34 35 36 4a 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 4.10 ea 52 53 34 55 56 ST 58 59 5.10 Sal 3.2 5.13 3.14 55 5.16 Economic damages reported by country and disaster type for the 10 costliest, ‘natural disasters recorded 1991-2005 Global pattern of the UN Human Development Index, 2010 Global pattern of the UN Disaster Risk Index (DRI) ‘The reduction of risk through pre-disaster protection and post-disaster recovery ‘The DNA model applied to complexity in disaster causation Location map of the city of Bam, Iran ‘The Swiss Cheese model of disaster Percentage of the national population living on less than USSI per day in 2007-8 throughout the world Socio-economic factors and fatality rates in flash floods during July 1993 in Nepal Observed and predicted future growth in the urban population globally and by region Risk plotted relative to benefit for various voluntary and involuntary activities A probabilistic event tree for a hypothetical gas pipeline accident Generalized statistical relationships between the magnitude and the frequency and return period of damaging natural events ‘The probability of occurrence of floods of various magnitudes during a period. of 30 years Annual maximum wind gusts at Tiree, western Scotland, 1927 to 1985 The effects of a change to increased variability on the occurrence of extreme events The effects of a change to an increased mean valve on the distribution of extreme events ‘Changes in human sensitivity to hazard due to variations in physical events and changes in societal tolerance ‘Sequential approach to natural hazard risk management in Switzerland. ‘The ALARP approach to risk management Energy release on a logarithmic scale for selected hazardous geophysical events Simplified world map of selected natural hazards ‘Three categories of disaster reduction strategy Flood defence along the coastline of Belgium and the Netherlands The effectiveness of deflecting dams in steering snow avalanches A theoretical illustration of the resistance of an engineered building to wind stress Daily number of disaster victims attending hospitals in Guatemala City in relation to the arrival of medical supplies and emergency hospitals after the 1976 earthquake Overview of the aid players involved in humanitarian emergencies Annual number of Presidential Disaster Declarations in the USA 1953-2011 Annual total of humanitarian aid 1990-2008 ‘Cumulative donor response to appeals for aid in the period following four major disasters ‘The accumulation of insured losses after the Northridge earthquake, 1994 Atypical set of stakeholder groups involved in hazard reduction planning. Evacuation map for Galle City, Sri Lanka ‘Map showing the expected location of displaced households and available disaster shelters in the greater Memphis, Tennessee, area ‘The Village Disaster Risk Management Training model (VDRMT) 78 9 110. 12 113 us 19 120 122 123 Copyrighted material