Hole-In-One Donut Franchise store #11 TVCC Caldwell Campus 205 South 6th Avenue Caldwell, ID 83605 Phone:

1-800-YUM-DONUTS Store owner: G. Borman Inspector: Ashley Stiver of Superior Donut Inspectors Inc. Certified in MA 244 class

Because a large majority the original data was not close to advertised weight for the original glazed donut at Hole-In-One Donut Store, we will be taking another look at this product. This time we will be taking more in depth measurements. The data taken from these measurements will be placed in statistical equations. We will use these equations to determine which type of measurements would be the best fit for calculating the weight of the donut. With these equations we hope to see if the best measurements can be used by the company in the future to produce their original glazed donut. This will create a greater probability for a customer to purchase a correctly weighted donut.

44/50 donuts did not meet the advertised weight of 52 grams in this sample of data There was an 88% chance of getting an original glazed donut that is not the advertised weight of 52 grams

Percentage of donuts in each weight category

12%

2%

8% 49 grams 16% 50 grams 51 grams

24%

52 grams 53 grams 54 grams 26% 12% 55 grams

50 original glazed donuts were selected from Hole-In-One DonutDonut (measurements were
comparable to that of Krispy Kreme donuts original glazed donut)

Donuts were selected on 5 different days (10 donuts on each day) between the months of April and June The donuts recorded measurements were taken after the donut was prepared and baked in the oven and ready for sale

The publicized weight of the donut is 52 grams Each donut was weighed on a food scale and data was recorded in grams (rounded to the nearest whole number) After each donut was weighed, the diameter, height, and the diameter of the inner donut hole were measured (values rounded to the nearest quarter of an inch and put in .25 decimal increments)

W
52 51 54 51 51 53 54 53 50

H
1 1 1.25 1 1 1 1 1.25 .75

D
4 4 4.25 4 4 4 4 4 3.75

I
1 1 .75 1 1 .75 .75 .75 1

Key Weight (in grams)= W Height (in inches)= H Diameter (in inches)=D Diameter of hole in center of donut (in inches) = I

53

.75

Data points are continued on next slide

W 53 54 49

H 1 1.25 1

D 4 4 3.75

I 1 .75 1.25

W 51 53 54 53 55 52 51 54 50 51 53 52 53 53

H 1 1 1 1 1.25 1 1 1 .75 1 1 1 1 1.25

D 4 4 4.25 4 4.25 4 4 4 3.75 4 4 4 4 4

I 1 .75 .75 1 .75 1 1 .75 1.25 1 1 1 1 .75

52
52 53 51 52 52

1
1 1 1 1 .75

4
4 4 4 4 3.75

1
1 1 1 1 1

51
51 49 51 54 52

1
1 1 1 1 1

4
4 3.75 4 4.25 4

.75
1 1 1 1 1

52
52 51 53 53 52

1
1.25 1 1 1 1

4
4 4 4 4 4

1
1 1 1 1 1

53
49 50 53 53

1.25
1 1 1 1

4
4 4 4 4

.75
1.25 1 .75 .75

Weight

Mean = 52.08 Median = 52 Mode = 53 Mid range = 52 Standard deviation= 1.41 Variance= 2.16

Diameter

Mean = 3.99 Median = 4 Mode = 4 Mid range = 4 Standard deviation= .107 Variance=.011

Height

Mean = 1.02 Median = 1 Mode = 1 Mid range = 1 Standard deviation=.11 Variance=.01

Donut hole diameter

Mean = .94 Median = 1 Mode = 1 Mid range = 1 Standard deviation= .14 Variance=.02

Weight of donuts
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Number of donuts in each weight category

Height of donuts
.75 in. 7 3 1 in.

1.25 in.

40

Diameter of Donut

Diameter of hole inside donut

3.75 in. 4 in. 4.25 in.

3 15 .75 in. 1 in. 32

41

1.25 in.

Y (weight of donut) 35.06=.78 (height)+5.74 (diameter)-5.47 (inside diameter) Adj r squared= .61 P value= 0.0

Y (weight of donut) 20.23 =1.69 (height)+7.54(diameter) Adj r squared= .40 P value= 0.0

Y (weight of donut) 56.59 =1.58 (height) -6.52 (inside diameter) Adj r squared= .49 P value= 0.0

Y (weight of donut) 35.38= 5.42(diameter)-5.27(inside diameter) Adj r squared= .61 P value= 0.0

Y^ = 46.31 (weight)+5.65 (height) Adj r squared=.20 P value= .001

Y^= 18.13 (weight)+8.50 (diameter) Adj r squared= .40 P value= 0.0

Y^=58.80 (weight)-7.15 (inside diameter) Adj r squared= .48 P value= 0.0

The best regression equation for predicting the weight of a Holein-One original glazed donut would be either:
Y (weight of donut) 35.06=.78 (height)+5.74 (diameter)-5.47 (inside diameter) Adj r squared= .61 P value= 0.0
OR Y (weight of donut) 35.38= 5.42(diameter)-5.27(inside diameter) Adj r squared= .61 P value= 0.0

The reason for this is that these two equations contained the highest adjusted r squared values and the lowest p values, which in this case are actually the same. The overall best choice would be the second equation because it contains the least amount of variables.

When examining the original glazed donuts 11 out of 50 donuts accurately weight 52 grams, which is the publicized weight.

x:10 n:50 C-level: .95

(.08913, .31087) .08913< p < .31087 11/50=.22

Here is the confidence interval constructed at 95% estimating the proportion of donuts that were the accurate weight of 52 grams.

=.22

Based on the point estimate from the previous slide, about 22 percent of the donuts were 52 grams in weight. This is less than half of the randomly selected donuts in the sample. This shows the machines are producing at the incorrect weight a majority of the time.

39/50 donuts do not meet the advertised weight of 52 grams in this sample of data There is an 78% chance of getting an original glazed donut that is not the advertised weight of 52 grams (based on this randomly selected sample) In this sample only the companies original donuts were used for data. It can be assumed that since the same machines are making all of the donuts for this one store, that other donuts produced could also be the incorrect weight based on these proportion results

The advertised mean weight of Hole-in-Ones original glazed donut is 52 grams. A sample of 50 glazed donuts has a mean of 52.08 grams and a standard deviation of 1.41. Use a .95 significance level to test the claim that the mean weight is equal to 52 grams. Do the donuts appear to have be at advertised weight standards? (T-test in TI-84 calculator)

H: = 52 grams H: 52 grams P=1.14 x10^-78 .05 > 1.14 x10^-78

Reject H.
With 95% confidence, the mean weight of Hole-InOnes original glazed donut is not 52 grams.

All tests, proportions, and data show that the weight of the donut is not 52 grams. Even with a small sample, it can be seen that the machinery in the donut shop is not working properly. It is not constantly producing a product at a single given weight and also not producing the donuts at the correct advertised weight. Same machines are producing all donuts, more than just the original donuts are likely to also be at incorrect weight. Company may be charging customers too much or not enough for the products that they are selling. This could be considered unfair to both the seller and the customer. Money can be lost or gained by both parties. Nutritional values for the donut product are also being used and they are based on the 52 grams weight. that is 52 grams in weight. This value is not consistently represented as an actual weight value in this sample of data. It can be considered as false nutritional advertising for this companies product.

Overall Conclusions

Ashley Stiver
Math 244 spring quarter 2012